UFC Fight Night 107 - London: Manuwa vs. Anderson
 

  1. Lina Lansberg (6-2)         vs.         Lucie Pudilova (6-1)

  2. Bradley Scott (10-4)        vs.        Scott Askham (14-3)

  3. Ian Entwistle (9-3)        vs.        Brett Johns (13-0)

  4. Tom Breese (10-1)        vs.         Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2)

  5. Marc Diakiese (11-0)        vs.        Teemu Packalen (8-1)

  6. Leon Edwards (12-3)        vs.        Vicente Luque  (11-5)

  7. Daniel Omielanczuk (19-6)    vs.         Timothy Johnson (10-3)

  8. Darren Stewart (7-0)        vs.        Francimar Barroso (18-5)

  9. Joseph Duffy (15-2)        vs.         Reza Madadi (14-4)

  10. Arnold Allen (11-1)        vs.         Makwan Amirkhani (13-2)

  11. Brad Pickett (25-13)        vs.         Marlon Vera (8-3)

  12. Gunnar Nelson (15-2)        vs.        Alan Jouban (15-4)

    Jimi Manuwa (16-2)                Corey Anderson (9-2)

 

Another weekend is upon us, which means another UFC Fight Night card is ready to keep us locked in our man-caves, avoiding the female gender at all costs. Most overseas based Fight Night cards tend to be on the weaker side when you look at the talent on the card from top to bottom. UFC Fight Night 107, aka UFC Fight Night London, aka UFC Fight Night: Maniuwa vs. Anderson, whatever you want to call it, has a solid list of fighters throughout the card, so you’ve got to give it to Sean Shelby and crew on constructing this Fight Night card. Watch this card turn into a total snooze-fest now that I have given the UFC praise for their matchmaking on a Fight Night card.

A stop in London for the UFC brings back fond memories of one of the best outside the cage MMA stories of all time. I won’t bore you with the details here, but do yourself a favor and Google: “Lee Murray, Tito Ortiz London Street Fight”. You’re welcome, as Lee Murray wastes away in a Moroccan jail for almost pulling off the biggest bank heist of all time! No seriously…..the BIGGEST bank robbery of all time! Lee Murray’s life was not dull before his arrest, that’s for sure. It’s too bad we really never got to see the true potential he had as a MMA fighter. Oh well, enough reminiscing. Let’s move on and take a look at the fights, and where there may be some value on the card when it comes to DraftKings salaries, and how we can construct a killer lineup that will help you make it rain just in time for your big Saturday night plans!

Undercard

 

 

Fight #1

3 Rounds

Welterweight

Lina Lansberg

Vs.

Lucie Pudilova

6-1

Record

6-1

$9,100

DraftKings Salary

$7,100

 

Snapshot:

Nope. Avoid. Move on…...seriously, move on.

 

PICK:    Draw due to judges falling asleep if the rematch is anything like their first fight

Cash Game: Gross, avoid.

GPP: Do yourself a favor and don’t even watch this one.

 

 

Fight #2

3 Rounds

Middleweight

Bradley Scott

Vs.

Scott Askham

11-4

Record

14-3

$6,900

DraftKings Salary

$9,300

 

Snapshot:

This should be an interesting fight to watch. The long-limbed Askham will want to keep his distance, and land from the outside, but his other strong suit is in the clinch, landing knees and uppercuts. The clinch may not be where he wants to be though, as Scott has an infective clinch game that leads to takedowns, and positional point from top position. If Askham can’t keep Scott from taking him down, then this could be a long night, but I think that Askham will have trained incessantly for this specific threat, and I foresee him landing his strikes at will, but having a tough time putting down the durable Scott. Askham will understand quickly that his victory will come by the way of the judges, and if he accepts that, then he’ll move on with his hand raised.

 

PICK:    Askahm, Unanimous Decision

Cash Game:  Askhma (5) -- tough salary to take on, but I like his point potential

GPP: Avoid -- not enough upside in either of these fighters.

 

 

 

Fight #3

3 Rounds

Bantamweight

Ian Entwistle

Vs.

Brett Johns

9-3

Record

13-0

$6,900

DraftKings Salary

$9,300

 

Snapshot:

We’ll keep this short and sweet: Entwistle has one game and one game only. He wants to grab ahold of one of your legs and make you tap due to a heel hook, kneebar, or some other leglock, and most often it doesn’t work. He is so passionate about his leglocks that once he grabs ahold of a leg, he doesn’t let go, even if he is getting viciously punched in the head to the point that he is unconcious. I’ve seen a few of his fights now, and I don’t know much about his coaches, but to watch him grab a leg, and get punched into unconsciousness when all he had to do to remain conscious was let go of the leg, is really frustrating and weird to watch. I just don’t get it. So here’t you can expect here: Entwistle going for a leglock, failing miserably, and getting pounding into a coma by an incredibly talented Brett Johns.

 

PICK:    Johns, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Johns (9) -- deal with his salary, and he’s guaranteed 100 points plus for you.

GPP: Johns (8) -- I love his point potential, but I hate how highly he’ll be owned. Deal with his salary and his high ownership percentage and move on.

 

Fight #4

3 Rounds

Middleweight

Tom Breese

Vs.

Oluwale Bamgbose

10-1

Record

6-2

$9,000

DraftKings Salary

$7,200

 

Snapshot:

Tom Breese is a stud on the ground. Oluwale Bamgbose is not. Oluwale has some crazy athletic power in the first 3 minutes of every fight, and if Breese can weather this onslaught, then I think he’ll have an easy path to victory against Bamgbose. I foresee Breese being cautious out of the gate, and looking for his opening to take the fight to the ground. He’ll find it when Bamgbose overextends himself striking, and he’ll lock on to the shorter fighter, take him to the ground, and I guarantee within 2 minutes of the fight hitting the ground, the Tri-Star prodigy (Breese) will have a submission locked up. Don’t get me wrong, Bamgbose can land a wild, vicious punch out of the gate and end the fight before we even blinked, but the odds have it playing out like the former.

 

PICK:    Breese, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:  Breese (8.5) -- as mentioned, he could get KO’ed, but I think his coaching is good enough to keep him out of harm's way for the first few minutes, and Breese will clinch, get the fight to the ground, and lock up a submission before the 1st intermission.

GPP: Breese (8) -- a great opportunity to rack up some serious points, but there is some risk that come in the form of Bamgbose’s hands, and you also need to deal with Breese’s salary of $9,000. Worth it IMO.

 

 

Fight #5

3 Rounds

Lightweight

Marc Diakiese

Vs.

Teemu Packalen

11-1

Record

8-1

$8,900

DraftKings Salary

$7,300

 

Snapshot:

This is an interesting fight that pits one of England’s fastest rising MMA stars in Diakiese against Finland’s lanky, and technically sound Teemu Packalen. Diakiese will be very highly owned in both GPP and cash, so he won’t be a huge target for me in GPP, but I do like his chances to feed off the crowd and walk away with an early stoppage. If Packalen can get this one to the ground, then he has a much better chance of pulling out a victory, but the fact that Diakiese just spent 3 rounds on the ground with Frankie Perez and did not get submitted, then I think it will be a tough feat for the Fin to pull off.

 

PICK: Diakiese, Unanimous Decision    

Cash Game:  Diakiese (5) -- I think a win is highly likely, but Packalen’s defense makes for a low scoring affair.

GPP: Packalen (5) -- will be very low owned, and a solid chance that he may be able to pull off a submission. Will be a game changer for you if you roster him and this happens.  

 

Fight #6

3 Rounds

Welterweight

Leon Edwards

Vs.

Vicente Luque

12-3

Record

11-5-1

$7,500

DraftKings Salary

$8,700

Snapshot:

I’m liking Vicente Luque’s aggressive style here, and the fact that he won’t be scared to go to the ground with Edwards (if he wants to take it there), makes it a pretty good scenario for Luque. Both of these guys have a lot of hype around them due to their recent performances, but Luque has a better MMA pedigree, training partners, and has vastly improved over the past 3 years. His recent results in the cage have been impressive, and I don’t foresee Edwards being able to keep pace with Luque’s aggressive style.

 

PICK: Luque, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  I like Luque in cash, but not enough to have a lot of exposure on. For $8,700 there are just too many question marks.

GPP: See “Cash Game” above. I will have some exposure to Luque, but I wouldn’t completely rule out Edwards from pulling out a W.

 

Fight #7

3 Rounds

Heavyweight

Daniel Omielanczuk

Vs.

Timothy Johnson

19-6-1

Record

10-3

$7,700

DraftKings Salary

$8,500

 

Snapshot:

Ok, I’m not writing out Daniel Omielanczuk’s name every time I want to mention him here, so I’m just going to call him DO for the sake of time. Regardless of how complicated it is to write or type his name, DO is a below average heavyweight, and in today’s UFC that should be taken as an insult. The HW division is on life support, and when you have someone like Tim Johnson who is a “prospect” in the division, then you know you aren’t in a good spot. TJ has 3 inches, and about 20 pounds on DO, not to mention a much better wrestling game, and an overall better fight IQ. Don’t wait for this one. It will be boring. Trust me.

 

PICK: Timothy Johnson, Unanimous Decision

Cash Game:  Timothy Johnson (6) -- this is almost a guarantee, but very little upside for the cost here.

GPP: Avoid

 

Fight #8

3 Rounds

Light Heavyweight

Darren Stewart

Vs.

Francimar Barroso

8-0

Record

18-6

$8,800

DraftKings Salary

$7,400

 

Snapshot:

This is a rematch from November of last year when an accidental headbutt in the 1st round sent Barroso to the ground like Sonny Liston in Lewiston, Maine. Stewart has a history of finishing his opponenets early and often, but he really hasn’t has top tier competition in his young career, so there are a lot of questions marks surrounding his game. Barroso on the other hand is known to decision his foes to death, and he doesn’t have an increibly active game. There are also a lot of questions around Barroso’s pain tolernece, which doesn’t bode well for a sport such as MMA. Too many question marks to invest heavily in this one, but if you’re looking for a roll of the dice that could get you an aggressive 1st round stoppage, then look no further than Darren Stewart.

 

PICK: Darren Stewart, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Stewart (7) -- I like his odds to end this one quickly, but he comes with a price tag.

GPP: Stewart (6.5) -- A good chance to win this one quickly and violently, but he will most likely be highly owned due to the lack of pain tolerance his opponent possesses.


 

Fight #9

3 Rounds

Lightweight

Joe Duffy

Vs.

Reza Madadi

15-2

Record

14-4

$9,700

DraftKings Salary

$6,500

 

Snapshot:

Joe Duffy was first known as the only man to beat Conor McGregor before Nick Diaz came around. He now has made a name for himself beyond just that moniker. Duffy has explosive combinations, and has the ability to pick apart almost anyone in front of him in the Lightweight division. Reza Madadi is a solid grappler who’d like to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible, but his ego will most likely have him exchanging with Duffy before his tastes some of Duffy’s power and precision.

PICK: Duffy, KO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Duffy -- Almost guaranteed money, but can you afford him?

GPP: Duffy -- Will most likely end it within the distance, as he has one of the best odds on the card to finish before the bell, but he will take up a significant portion of your budget. Plan accordingly.


 

Main Card
 

Fight #10

3 Rounds

Featherweight

Makwan Amirkhani

Vs.

Arnold Allen

13-2

Record

11-1

4-1

Record Last 5

4-1

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

27%

% Fights to Dec

33%

3

# of UFC Fights

2


Analysis:

Mark my words: Arnold Allen and Makwan Amirkhani will take home the FIght of the Night bonus, and will be the fight that everyone is talking about Sunday morning!

Both of these guys have the confidence and ego to never give up, and their styles matchup perfectly for a scrappy, scramble-filled, war that will make it close to impossible for you to run to the fridge and grab a fresh beer, so make sure you grab 2 before the fight starts!

Vegas has this fight as a pick ‘em (-110 each), and DraftKings has given Amirkhani an $8,300 salary, and Allen a $7,900 price tag. All are justified, because this honestly is an extremely difficult fight to call, but I do have a position on this one, and I will be rostering one of these guys in some of my lineups.

Amirkhani is definitely the better wrestler of the two, and he’ll look to make this a grinding affair that will put Allen in some uncomfortable positions on the ground, allowing Amirkhani the opportunity to land some sneaky ground and pound, hopefully open up a cut on Allen with an elbow, and deifnitely make an impression on the judges. Most judges love a fighter who can take the fight to the ground, maintain top position, and unleash significant strikes that can be felt through the canvas. This shows the bottom fighter in a very vulnerable position that is visibly uncomofortable, but also shows that the top fighter can control where the fight takes place, maintain his balance and position from the top, all while landing signifiant, thudding strikes with elbows and fists from top position. This sequence is one of the most rewarding on the scorecards from a judge’s perspective, and it often saps the clock as well as the will from the fighter absorbing the shots.

Arnold Allen is a 23 year old Brit who is 11-1, and has a well rounded, athletic game that is incredibly fun to watch. His energy, youthful confidence, and athleticism make for an entertaining fighter and a star in the making, and don’t be short sighted and not consider the home cage advantage that Allen will have if this goes to the judges scorecards. Both these fighters have a style that will make it incredibly difficult to judge on paper, and will have a solid amount of objective observers split down the middle when deciding a winner. I believe that the fact that this is in Allen’s backyard could be the deciding factor. Something to keep in the back of your mind.

From a DraftKings perspective, both of these fighters have a style that will lead to many strikes, takedowns, reversals, and scrambles, and ultimately, this will lead to some solid points being scored, even for the fighter who is on the losing end.

PICK: Allen, Unanimous Decision

Cash Game:  Allen (8) -- not a guarantee for a victory, but his style makes for a point accumulator, and he’ll save you some cap space, which is hard to come by on this card.

GPP: Allen (7) -- see above. An aggressive, high-paced style will allow for points to be earned even in a losing effort, but not a huge upside, as it’s pretty unlikely Allen will get a stop inside the distance. There aren’t many opportunities to save salary cap space on this card, and Allen provides one of those few opportunities, so we need to take advantage while we can.

 

Fight #11

3 Rounds

Bantamweight

Brad Pickett

Vs.

Marlon Vera

25-13

Record

8-3-1

1-4

Record Last 5

3-2

$8,200

DK Salary

$8,000

-145

Vegas Odds

+125

37%

% Fights to Dec

45%

13

# of UFC Fights

4


Analysis:

If you asked all of the fans attending the event on Saturday in London, I would bet you that 75% (or more) of the audience has bought their ticket because this is Brad Pickett’s last fight. Pickett is a UK MMA legend, and previously declared that this would be his last fight, win or lose, and he’s going out on his own terms, on his home soil.

Marlon Vera is a very unorthodox fighter, but I do feel that Pickett has the skills to win this fight, in multiple different ways. Don’t get me wrong, Pickett has been in some serious wars, and his chin is almost non-existent now, but I also think that his experience allows him to recover quickly, and position himself in a way to scramble just enough not to have the fight stopped, and eventually he weathers the storm enough to regain his wits, and prevent the ref from stopping the fight.

The emotion behind this fight for Pickett will be a big factor in my opinion. Yes, Vera is 14 years his younger, and he has some legit talent, but Vera takes this fight on one week’s noticeas a late replacement, and his talents aren’t something that Pickett hasn’t seen in the cage before. At one point in time Pickett was the best Batamweight (and lighter weight class for that matter) fighter in the world, and this lasted for a solid 4-5 years. Pickett’s experience, the energy from the crowd, and the fact that Vera may not be ready for this type of war on one weeks notice, all point to Pickett have the upper hand. If you’re a betting man, then I’d snatch this line at -145 before it gets closer to -200 on fight night.

Old man time waits for no one, and this is true with Pickett as well. Over the last few years he has visibly slowed, and he has gone 1-4 over those years, but he still shows the technique, skills, and will to compete in the cage, but his quickness has faded.

In this one I think that Vera will expose himself by being overly aggressive due to the energy in the arena. He’s going to look to spoil Pickett’s swan song, but this is a man who may have lost a step, but he has not lost his will to compete, and surely has not lost his British pride! Look for the Brits to be carrying Pickett out of the stadium on their shoulders for a pint at the pub across the street! He will not be denied, and for $8.200, I think it’s a hell of a deal and worth exposure in both your cash game lineups, and a good portion of your GPP lineups. There aren’t many places to find value on this card with some dogs, and from a DraftKings perspective, Pickett is one of the few guys you can roll the dice on and feel pretty good about it.

PICK: Pickett, Unanimous Decision

Cash Game:  Pickett (6.5) -- You need to find somewhere to save salary, and this is one of the few winable places to find it.

GPP: Pickett (6) -- Not a great chance to stop the fight with a sub or KO before it goes to a decision, but still a fighter that you should have some exposure to when it comes to GPP’s, as he can save you some salary, and have a chance at getting you a W, but keep in mind; his ceiling is low, as he most likely wins via a decision.

 

Fight #12

3 Rounds

Light Heavyweight

Gunnar Nelson

Vs.

Alan Jouban

15-2-1

Record

15-4

3-2

Record Last 5

4-1

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-330

Vegas Odds

+270

18%

% Fights to Dec

37%

8

# of UFC Fights

8

Analysis:

I really like this matchup here. Gunnar Nelson is a rising star who has some of the slickest ground game in the UFC, not to mention that he is one of Europe’s most popular MMA athletes. This is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, but it’s more interesting that just that headline.

Jouban is a model turned MMA fighter, so you’d think he’s soft and wants to work the ground game where he can keep his beautiful mug out of harm’s way, but au contraire mon friar. Jouban loves to dive into the deep end of the pool and slug it out, putting his modeling career on the line with every hook that goes buzzing by his dome. You have to think, if this guy is willing to put a potentially lucrative career on the line by fighting for $5,000/$5000 coming up through the ranks (not to mention the amatuer fights he has under his belt) just to possibly make a name for himself in the UFC, then he must have a passion for this sport that is unquantifiable on a spreadsheet. The kid has heart, and once I thought of his situation in these terms, then I started looking at him differently as a fighter. Most of the guys involved in this sport are either martial artists who have been training in one specialty or another, or they had a troubled past where fighting was commonplace for them, and MMA was an avenue to get them off the streets, and an opportunity to release anger in a functional way without going to prison. Jouban falls into neither categorey, and he’s found success pretty quickly. A man with other opportunities to make a lot of money and live the “hollywood” lifestyle, but chose to dive head-first into a sport riddled with savages. Scary when you think about it.

So how does Joban pull this out being a +270 underdog, while facing one of Europe’s fastest rising MMA stars on his home turf? Well, it won’t be easy.

Ultimately, Jouban wants to keep this fight standing, as he has very good striking, but Nelson wants to drag this one to the ground and lock up a submission. If Jouban can defend the takedown, and keep this fight standing, then he has a legitimate shot at winning, but that is a big “if”. Nelson is a wizard on the ground, and he knows how to get his fights to the mat.

I also think that the UFC has coddled Jouban throughout his career with them, and really hasn’t tested him from grappling perspective. If you look back at Jouban’s last 6 fights in the UFC, he has a 5-1 record, only falling to Albert Tumenov by TKO in October of 2015. In those last 6 fights those fighters he has faced have won their prior combined fights (58 total wins) via 35 KO’s, 20 decisions, and …...wait for it…...3 submissions! Yes, 3 submissions over 58 victories those from those 6 prior opponents in the UFC. That’s 5% of their total wins coming by the way of submission!

So what does that tell me? It tells me that Jouban has been hand fed fighters that the UFC feels comfortable that he will beat, and that they don’t feel comfortable with how his ground game will hold up in the UFC. This poses a problem, as Gunnar Nelson is one of the upper-echelon grapplers in the UFC. The real question becomes; how well will Alan Jouban do when trying to defend the takedown? His prior UFC components really haven’t tried to get him to the ground, and even if they did, they didn’t have much of a wrestling pedigree to have the technique or skills to get him to the ground.

With that being said, I do feel that Jouban has a shot at making this a difficult victory for Nelson, or even possibly pulling out the biggest upset on the card, as my point that I mentioned earlier in the column plays a big factor: Jouban has an unconventional path to the UFC with other well-paying opportunities staring him in the face, and this tells us one very important thing: he wants to be here, and he wants to succeed! Most successful fighters fell into this sport due to being talented at a martial art as they were younger, being a great collegiate wrestler, or needing an outlet to avoid prison and releasing their anger through legal means. Jouban’s path makes me scratch my head, and seeing the wars that he has been through in the past, I wouldn’t put anything past him.

PS: Late night post from Alan Jouban’s Instagram → looks like a little inconvienence for Jouban and some of the other out of town fighters the night before the fights. Possible fire in their hotel which forces an evacuation. Will this have an effect on the outcome tomorrow? No. Not unless he’s in the street for the next 5 hours and needs to be relocated, which I assume is a minimal chance of happening.

PPS: - Stupid Photo Op from the Jouban Camp

WTF?? Really guys? You put your life at risk for a stupid photo op that 90% of the people who have been to London have tried to replicate? Unoriginal and stupid. That bike messenger had seen that 1,000 times and knew exactly what to do.

PICK: Gunnar Nelson, sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Pass, or if you can afford it, Nelson

 

GPP: Jouban - have some exposure to him, as I think he’ll be low owned, and would put you in great tournament position if he pulled out a KO victory in the 1st or 2nd, which is possible, especially if he can stuff the takedowns.     Rating: 6 -- definitely a long shot, but a BIG win if it hits!

 

Fight #13

5 Rounds

Light Heavyweight

Jimi Manuwa

Vs.

Corey Anderson

16 - 2

Record

9 - 2

3 - 2

Record Last 5

4 - 1

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-140

Vegas Odds

+120

6%

% Fights to Dec

55%

7

# of UFC Fights

8

 

Keys to Victory

Jimi Manuwa:

  • Has a very good chance at winning this fight in the first round and a half via ref stoppage.

  • Must keep gas tank in check. Over his career he has been known to come out ultra aggressive in the 1st round, but has gassed quickly thereafter.

  • Needs to keep the fight standing and avoid a grinding, wrestle-fest with Anderson on top.

  • First 5 round fight of career. Must take into account when pushing the pace.

Corey Anderson:

  • Needs to use his wrestling skills as an avenue to victory!

  • Using his wrestling skills to wear down Manuwa will allow him to open up opportunities for victory later on in the fight, and possibly a convincing decision victory.

  • Must avoid Manuwa’s KO power in the 1st 2 rounds.

  • Strategic shots to get the takedown will be crucial, and pressing Manuwa against the cage will also contribute to emptying JM’s gas tank, which is one of his biggest weaknesses as a fighter.

Analysis:

Jimi Manuwa will headline UFC Fight Night 107 in his hometown of London, England, and he’ll be asked to send the UK fans home with a sense of pride once the last fight of the night wraps up, but he’ll have his hands full with Corey Anderson. Manuwa stands as a slight -140 Vegas favorite 24 hours before the fight, but honestly, when you have odds that are this close (under -150), you pretty much have a pick ‘em on your hands.

Manuwa is known for his heavy hands and knockout power with 14 of his 16 wins coming by way of KO, and only 6% of his 25 fights going to a decision (1 win, 0 loses). The Londoner likes to come out swinging, and put his foe away early. Out of his 16 victories, 10 of them of come in the 1st round, 5 have taken place in the 2nd round, and only one of his victories has be earned past the 2nd round (decision over Jan Blachowicz in 2015).

He also likes to end his fights early because he has a notoriously awful gas tank. If Manuwa’s fights end in the 1st round, then you can almost guarantee he will come away with his hand being raised. If his fights end in the 2nd round, then it’s more of a coin flip as to who won the fight, and if his fights end beyond the 2nd round, then you can almost guarantee that Manowa will come away with a loss. He has one of the worst gas tanks in the game, and he knows it, so he is ultra aggressive out of the gate, hoping to land a few concrete blocks that are attached to his arms upside his opponent’s skull.

The 37 year old Manuwa is 10 years the elder of his opponent, but that won’t stop him from taking it to the American wrestler early and often. Manuwa’s last fight pitted him against another strong American in Ovince St. Preux where Manuwa was able to whether a few first round takedowns, and in a rare feat, was able to show a better gas tank than his opponent, and ultimately was able to viciously KO St. Preux who seemed to be extremely tired, and unable to move in the slightest bit, allowing Manowa to land some vicious strikes that were not defended at all. In Mirko Crocop fashion, St. Preux was knocked unconscious with his leg awkwardly tangled beneath him in a hunk of twisted flesh.

Corey Anderson is a 27 year old former D3 wrestler that now trains in the New Jersey area, training with the emphasis Mark Henry, Renzo Gracie, as well as Nick Catone. He’s surrounded himself with the likes of Edson Barboza, Frankie Edgar, and was the winner of the 19 season of The Ultimate Fighter.

Anderson has quickly amassed a 9-2 professional record since March of 2013, with 8 of his 11 fights taking place in the UFC’s octagon. This is a guy who has had a plan since day one, and he’s almost flawlessly executed it throughout his professional career. Incredibly, Anderson has been a favorite in every single one of his 8 UFC fights, only losing a close split decision to the future Hall of Famer, Shogun Rua, and being TKO’d by Gian Villante in the 3rd of a fight that he was cruising to victory in.

Anderson knows his path to victory against a dangerous striker such as Jimi Manowa, and that path takes him directly to the canvas. Trying to strike with the likes of Manowa would be foolish for Anderson to partake in. His best opportunity to victory is to attack Manowa’s weakness - his gas tank and his weak wrestling game. Anderson should stay active on his feet, circling away from Minowa’s power right hand, and when he has the chance, should shoot to try and get the fight to the floor as soon as possible.

It would also make a lot of sense for Anderson to push the fight against the cage, and grind Manuwa’s will and endurance away as he rests his bodyweight on Manowa, and works for a takedown. This might not be the most aesthetically pleasing fight to watch for the fans, but Anderson’s easiest path to victory will be to wear down Manowa with pressure against the cage, and eventually sap his energy to the point that a takedown will be easily accessible for the former D3 wrestling star. Once to the mat, Anderson should have his way, and be able to grind out a decision victory, or eventually win in the later round via ref stoppage.

So where does this put both fighters from a DraftKings perspective? Manuwa has a DraftKings price tag of $8,400, and Anderson comes in with a $7,800 salary. Manuwa is a risk, because once you get past the 1st round, his odds of winning dramatically diminish. Anderson needs to avoid Manowa’s heavy hands for the first 5-8 minutes of the fight, and if he can do that, then I think he has a very good shot of pulling out the minor upset over the hometown favorite. Anderson is one of my favorite picks on this card. He is a volume striker who loves to takedown his opponents. With the change in DraftKings scoring, and awarding more points for takedowns, this also increases Anderson’s value. This is almost a perfect storm…..a high volume striker that has great takedowns. A recipe for a very high score in a 5 round fight!

Interesting Numbers to Consider:

  • Manuwa’s striking accuracy is 59%, much higher than the UFC average of 42%

  • Anderson is not only a great wrestler, but a very active striker - averaging 5.11 Significan Strikes per minute.

  • Anderson averages 4.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, one of the highest on the card.

PICK: Anderson by Decision

Cash Game:  Anderson (7 rating) -- 1 out of 10 rating system

GPP: Anderson (8)


Example Lineups

 

Cash

 

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Corey Anderson

$7.800

2

Brett Johns

$9,300

3

Tom Breese

$9,000

4

Brad Pickett

$8,200

5

Vicente Luque

$8,700

6

Alan Jouban

$7,000


GPP

 

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Corey Anderson

$7.800

2

Brett Johns

$9,300

3

Tom Breese

$9,000

4

Marc Diakiese

$8,900

5

Arnold Allen

$7,900

6

Alan Jouban

$7,000