(-2000) TOP Esports v ThunderTalk Gaming (+900)

(+130) Team WE v EDward Gaming (-170)

There will be a staggering difference in quality between these two games here. The TES v TT game will feel almost unfair as TES looks to earn a bye in the playoffs and TT attempts to save some face. On the other side of the coin you have Team WE v EDG who are the 3rd and 4th place teams both trying to fend off the surging TES and hold onto a top four spot. A lot to cover on this slate so let’s dive in!

Game #1 TOP Esports v ThunderTalk Gaming

Cann’s Pick: TOP Esports 

Cann’s breakdown: This match should be ugly and the proof for that can be seen in how Vegas is setting odds on this one. -2000 odds might be one of the heaviest favorites of the year. With JackeyLove and Karsa in the early game, and Knight holding down the mid lane leaves very few opportunities for TT in this match. 

Game #2: Team WE v EDward Gaming

Cann’s Pick: EDward Gaming

Cann’s Breakdown: If you wanted a possible upset on a Wednesday here you go. I picked EDG just because they have the better team overall but I wouldn’t put it past WE to put together a good performance. The key to this game is which bot lane gets a larger advantage. If Team WE can’t keep Viper from making an impact, EDG has the tools to get through some of the earlier team fights and let Viper take over the late game. The jungle gap will be the saving grace for Team WE in this one. 

Captain

Favorite: JackeyLove (TES: $11,700) Going up against the 15th worst ADC in the LPL right now and also averaging 77.5 FPPG makes this a pretty sure lock for captain. On these two slate days this price is pretty steep but it is clear the DKs also agrees with the idea that JackeyLove should run away with this match. Honestly we see a lower conversion rate on early aggression into kills but he does rack up huge advantages in the early game with the highest gold (+436) and experience (+335) advantages at 10 minutes among all LPL bot laners. Easy pick up here. 

Value Pick: Shanks (WE: $10,500)

Top Lane

Favorite: 369 (TES: $6,800) Not a huge 369 fan overall but he is on a heavy favorite and is a safer pick overall. He has the fifth most kills among all LPL top laners at 89 kills with 191 assists to his name as well. I wouldn’t expect huge numbers from him but with the skill gap between him and Chelizi, you shouldn’t worry about losing massive points here. 

Value Pick: Breathe (WE: $6,200) 

Jungle

Favorite: beishang (WE: $6,600) This may seem like one of my weirder picks here but feel free to ignore everything in this section and just pick up Karsa. I think this may be one of the better plays on the slate in terms of points to dollars spent. When comparing only the junglers beishang ranks highest on this slate for kills (115), team death percentage (15.9%), experience differential at 10 min (+242), and damage per minute (327). He is active in all phases of the game and Team WE plays through him as opposed to him passively looking for opportunities. 

Value Pick: JeiJei (EDG: $6,800)

Mid Lane

Favorite: Knight (TES: $7,600) Knight has 15 more kills in one less game as compared to the second best performing mid laner on this slate. Should have an easier go as well playing into Twila who has a KDA of 2.8 with 75 deaths (almost 25 more than Knight). Karsa loves pressuring mid as well so look for Knight to gain an even larger lead off of that. 

Value Pick: Scout (EDG: $7,200)   

ADC

Favorite: Viper (EDG: $7,400) Probably the best raw ADC on this slate. He isn’t as flashy of a play maker as JackeyLove but his micro skills show up in his ability to stay alive. He has 162 kills to only 57 deaths. On top of that this is a great pick because of how much EDG relies on him (35.1% team kill percentage) but don’t expect Team WE to just roll over. 

Value Pick: Jiumeng (WE: $7,200) 

Support

Favorite: Zhuo (TES: $5,800) This is a slam dunk on this slate, hence it is as expensive as it is. Zhuo has 50 more assists than his lane opponent Teeen (301 to 250). He has a 26% first blood participation rate which shows how TES makes it a priority to get JackeyLove ahead early. The TT bot laner (SamD) isn’t terrible, but you can tell there is some missing chemistry on this team and I just don’t think Teeen is the answer for support in the long run.

Value Pick: Meiko (EDG: $5,400) 

Team

Favorite: TOP Esports ($5,400)  -2000 odds. That should be about all that needs to be stated. TES wins their matches in the early game and they do it through snowballing JackeyLove and Knight early in the game. They are averaging a +2000 gold lead at 15 minutes while TT is normally -1149 at the same time. The risk with this pick is that they may not pick up as many neutral objectives because the games should be on the faster side. 

Value Pick: EDward Gaming ($5,000) 

Cann’s Example Lineup

Captain (x1.5): Viper ($11,100)

     Alternate: Karsa ($10,800)

Top: Flandre ($6,400)

Jungle: beishang ($6,600)

     Alternate: JieJie ($6,800)

Mid: Scout ($7,200)

ADC: JackeyLove ($7,800)

     Alternate: Jiumeng ($7,200)

Support: Meiko ($5,400)

Team: TOP Esports ($5,400)