LPL Slate March 9th, 2021

FunPlus Phoenix v LGD

TOP Esports v Bilibili Gaming

Monday gave us our first Spring Split Playoffs contender in RNG and we see four teams here who all have the ability to make playoffs (yes even LGD is still in contention). FPX is looking to right the course after a bad loss to Rare Atom and TES is looking to extend their winning ways. There are also a lot of question marks around BLG and the inconsistency that they have shown since coming back from break and whether or not they can get back into the playoff picture in the last two weeks of the split. Let’s get into it and see which picks you should sell out for and which you should fade!

Game #1 FunPlus Phoenix v LGD Gaming

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

Game #2: TOP Esports v Bilibili Gaming

Cann’s Pick: TOP Esports 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: JackeyLove (TES: $11,700) There is really no downside to this pick. With a two match slate, JackeyLove comes below his $12k normal price which can give you a little more flexibility in the rest of your lineup. With a 5.0 KDA and a team kill share percentage of 36%, you know that JackeyLove is going to pick up points. 

Value Pick: Nuguri (FPX: $9,600) This is a pretty contrarian pick in terms of the types of roles you see as captain but getting a high performing top laner as captain opens up a lot of cap space for you. Nuguri is averaging a touch under 60 FPPG and has a season high point total against TES of 86.0. He wins lane hardest out of any top laner on the slate with a +237 gold differential at 10 minutes and +121 experience differential at 10 minutes. This could be a sneaky (and low ownership) pick here. 

Top Lane

Favorite: 369 (TES: $6,600) 369 is probably the least flashy or aggressive top laner on the slate. I am sure he would prefer to play champions like Sion or Ornn every game but he has had some great performances on the Gnar and Camille this split as well. He plays for the team and it shows with his 131 assists on the split. He is relatively safe as well with only 53 deaths in 22 games which means he shouldn’t take too many points off the board as long as he isn’t counter picked too hard. 

Value Pick: Biubiu (BLG: $6,000) I don’t think there is much of a chance for upsets on Tuesday morning but if there is, it will be BLG and that means that Biubiu has had a big game. While the idea of a carry top laner is out of style now, Biubiu plays as if it is still a reasonable playstyle. Playing the picks like Renekton, Gangplank, and Gnar; Biubiu wants to win the game through his lane which is why he has 76 kills but also the reason for his 109 deaths as well. This is 100% a risk pick and this is an angle to try and steal the lobby but he is very cheap which also may make this a worthwhile pick for you 

Jungle

Favorite: Beichuan (FPX: $7,200) With Bo gone and Tian listed as questionable, Beichuan is the best jungler on the slate. In their loss  to Rare Atom Beichuan dropped 108.7 with 17 kills over 3 games. There isn’t a ton of data outside of that for him but now that he is playing against a weaker jungler in Kui, expect for a similar performance. 

Value Pick: Meteor (BLG: $6,600) Statistically, Meteor is a better performing player than Karsa which seems crazy to think of. TES is like 3.5 games ahead of BLG in the standings and Karsa is only averaging a 66.7 FPPG while Meteor is averaging 62.0. In his 2-0 series over TT, Meteor dropped 96.4 points while the highest points dropped by Karsa all year is 81.7. Meteor leads all junglers on the slate with 80 kills where Karsa has 70 currently. It will most likely be a low ownership pick which could pay dividends for you. 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Knight (TES: $7,600) Knight is the only mid laner on the slate to have multiple 100+ point games. Knight has a team kill share percentage of 25% and I expect TES to rack up some serious kills on Tuesday. Look for first blood to possibly come from mid as he has a first blood participation rate of 36%.

Value Pick: Doinb (FPX: $7,400) Doinb is not my favorite player on FPX. He does has 78 kills and into a pretty weak opponent on this slate but that still doesn’t change my view of him in context of the whole split. His highest kill series only had 10 kills and in his last series he died a total of 9 times. That being said, Uniboy has had a legit 16.3 point game and he has had a 10 death series that only had two games in it. Easy pick here.    

ADC

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $7,600) This is the kill leader for today’s slate with 139 kills. He has a team kill share percentage 33.1% and team kill participation of 67.6%. He is averaging less that 2 deaths per game and finds leads in both gold (+167) and experience (+163) at 10 minutes. Love this pick here and I think FPX will continue to lean on him. 

Value Pick: Aiming (BLG: $7,200) With already covering JackeyLove above in the Captain section I figured I would cover someone else here. I think BLG has the better shot compared to LGD in terms of sneaking games away from the favorites. Aiming will most likely cross the 100 kill threshold in this matchup as well as 120 assists. He is ok, and that is about the most fair evaluation I could have for him. I don’t think he has made the impact at BLG that they expected but he is far from the bottom of the barrel. 

Support

Favorite: Zhuo ($5,600) These support picks are not rocket science. They average 10+ points more than the dogs and you should be able to work them into your lineups. Zhuo has a 4.8 KDA and 217 assists on the split. He participates in 32% of all first blood kills for TES and participates in 65.4% of all total kills. Easy pick up here. 

Value Pick: Crisp (FPX: $5,400) I would argue this is the better pick of the two here. He has the highest assist rate on the slate (268) and first blood participation (35%). Crisp has a 68.3% team kill participation and supports Lwx into LGD, easy buy here. 

Team

Favorite: FunPlus Phoenix ($5,400)  They have the easier matchup for Tuesday morning. I don’t think they are necessarily the better performing team between them and TES but LGD is just abysmal. FPX has a 1.32 team KD ratio while LGD has a KD ratio of 0.61. FPX has a dragon rate of 54% and LGD is at 39% while FPX has a baron control rate of 68% and LGD has a 24%. Easy picks here. 

Value Pick: TOP Esports ($5,200) There is a possible risk with the TES pick here. BLG is not a horrific team but it will be a task against TES. TOP has the best early game rating on the slate (71.2) and team gold differential at 15 minutes (+2204). JackeyLove will push Aiming to the limit and Karsa will move mid to put Zeka behind over and over. This will be a high paced match with lots of kills and a must watch on Tuesday morning. 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): Beichuan ($10,800)

Alternate: Zeka ($10,500)

Top: Nuguri ($6,400)

Jungle: Karsa ($7,000)

Alternate: Meteor ($6,600)
Mid: Doinb ($7,400)

ADC: Lwx ($7,600)

Alternate: Aiming ($7,200)

Support: Zhuo ($5,600)

Team: TOP Esports ($5,200)