LPL Slate March 7th, 2021

(+250) Victory Five v JD Gaming (-350)

(-1800) Royal Never Give Up v eStar Gaming (+800)

This is a shorter slate with big implications. There have been some serious surprises thus far about which teams are succeeding and those who are failing. This slate feels a little chalky which means I can almost guarantee this is n’t going to play out like normal. Either way, we are watching the LPL which means we should expect some serious fireworks!  

Game #1 Victory Five v JD Gaming

Cann’s Pick: JD Gaming

Game #2: Royal Never Give Up v eStar Gaming

Cann’s Pick: Royal Never Give Up

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: GALA (RNG: $11,700) This seems like the most logical choice, even if you weren’t looking at price tags. GALA has more kills compared to anyone on this slate (155) and most assists out of any bot laner (158). He is averaging 95.5 FPPG which is 10 more than the next player on this slate. Easy pick here to have a good game against eStar.

Value Pick: Mole (V5: $10,200) While V5 and JDG have been trending in two different directions, and V5 going in the wrong direction, Mole is still one of the top performing mid laners in the LPL. He is averaging 57.5 FPPG and with the price he is at you can afford higher priced picks elsewhere. One of JDG’s biggest inconsistencies is in their mid lane meaning that this could be a place to pick up a low ownership piece and steal some lobbies. I think either way this match plays out, it very well could go 2-1. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Xiaohu (RNG: $6,600) You will need to pick and choose which RNG members you pick on this slate and there are some good reasons why Xiaohu should make the list. He has 82 kills on the season (he is almost 30 up on the second place top laner on this slate) and he is averaging 81.3 FPPG. He averages leads in both gold (+27) and experience (+52) at 10 minutes while his lane opponent (zs) is averaging deficits in both of those same categories.  

Value Pick: Zoom (JDG: $6,200) What goes understated for Zoom and his skill level is the fact that he doesn’t normally get too much help from his juggler. So while he is on an island he has 58 kills, 8.5 CSPM, and has a team death share rate of 18%. This is a safe pick and you can save some dollars to spend elsewhere.  

Jungle

Favorite: Kanavi (JDG: $6,800) In order to not just flood the entire write up with RNG players, I will mix it up at the jungle pick. Kanavi isn’t the strongest of the remaining junglers outside Wei (RNG), but I think you can be more comfortable with JDG winning this series. Kanavi is an established name in the LPL and while he has been prone to fall behind in the laning phase of this split, you cannot deny his impact in securing objectives. Some of his farming problems also stem from  

Value Pick: Weiwei (V5: $6,400) The combination of Weiwei and Mole is the inside track for V5 in this match. Weiwei has more kills (84) and assists (158) than Kanavi and I think he will be able to set Kanavi behind in the early game. This pick hinges on what the side lanes do to help Weiwei and Mole. If they fall too far behind, it will be really hard for Weiwei to carry this game. If they can hold their own, you could see V5 steal this series. 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Cryin (RNG: $7,600) This is the only player on the slate who has fantasy numbers that rivals GALA (85.9 FPPG) and has a total of 87 kills this split (most among mids on this slate). What I like about Cryin is he is adapting his play style. He is becoming more aggressive in the early game and forcing his opponents to take in opportune trades and back times. This is allowing RNG to snowball faster and have better early game numbers, which was a struggle for them earlier this year. 

Value Pick: Yagao (JDG: $7,200) Man Yagao is such a confusing player. He has a 4.7 KDA which would make you think that he has pretty impressive stats. Instead he is an overly safe mid laner (41 deaths) but has far fewer kills (69) than the top mid laners in the league. This is a pick if you are hedging that JDG wins and you want to spend your money elsewhere on RNG players.    

ADC

Favorite: Loken (JDG: $7,400) The Loken pick here is very much like the Yagao pick. If I was building my own LPL squad, Loken is not my first call. That being said, he has performed pretty well in his past few series. Excluding the FPX series he has had a 10.9 KDA in his last two series. Those two teams were eStar and TT, so take that at face value. 

Value Pick: rat (ES: $6,800) Among all players on the slate rat actually has the second most kills (103) and has a decent assist numbers as well (118). While RNG is 10-1, they have had some games where they are outright drafted. In these games they have struggled early and either had to scrap a win or they end up having to go to a 3 game series. Rat has a team kill share percentage of 32.3% which means if eStar can steal a game from the current first place team, rat will be a huge part of it. 

Support

Favorite: Ming (RNG: $5,800) Ming has 300 assists this split and is almost 100 above the next player. When I read that stat my head almost exploded. Supporting GALA will do that for you but Ming is a talented player in his own right. He is proactive and moves around the map with Wei in the mid game to catch enemies in mid rotation. He has a team kill participation rate of almost 73% and a first blood participation rate of 37%. Really no reason not to get Ming in this spot. 

Value Pick: LvMao (JDG: $5,400) LvMao, much like the rest of his team, has had his ups and downs this split. He has had games where he has a 14+ KDA but then the next game a 2 KDA. The real benefit with going with a JDG bot lane is the inconsistent with two different bot laners this split and neither have been overly impressive. Neither team’s win condition is the bottom lane and I think that in the end will help Loken and LvMao.

Team

Favorite: Royal Never Give Up ($5,600) I don’t make it a habit betting against the best team in the league. RNG has the best mid-late game rating (21.6) and high control rates of dragons (57%), elder (100%), and baron (68%). Vegas set their odds at -1800 for Monday morning. 

Value Pick: Victory Five ($4,600) This is your safest pick for upset. V5 has better turret numbers than JDG (First Turret taken- V5:59% v 39%, first three turrets- V5: 56% v 55%). JDG is also averaging a gold deficit (-168) as a team at 15 minutes while V5 has a +110 gold differential at that same time. If you want to fade a favorite on this slate, picking V5 over JDG may just be your angle to win your GPP leagues. 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): GALA ($11,700)

Alternate: Xiaohu ($9,000)

Top: Zoom ($6,200)

Jungle: Weiwei ($6,800)

Alternate: H4cker ($6,000)
Mid: Mole ($6,800)

ADC: LokeN ($7,400)

Alternate: rat ($6,800)

Support: Ming ($5,800)

Team: Royal Never Give Up ($5,600)