LPL/LCK Slate March 4th, 2021

(+210) eStar Gaming v JD Gaming (-285)

(-155) Victory Five v Suning (+120)

(+120) Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce (-155)

(-210) Gen.G v Liiv SANDBOX (+165) 

With the upset of BRO over T1 we feel the movement of new teams establishing a foothold against some of the old guard in League of Legends. On this slate we have some teams like Victory Five, Suning, JD Gaming, and Nongshim RedForce are all teams on the bubble looking to make it into the Spring playoffs so you will see a big push by these teams as we move into the last month of the split. Let’s dive in!  

Game #1  eStar Gaming v JD Gaming

Cann’s Pick: JD Gaming

Game #2: Victory Five v Suning

Cann’s Pick: Suning

Game #3: Hanwha Life Esports v Nongshim RedForce

Cann’s Pick: Hanwha Life Esports

Game #4: Gen.G v Liiv SANDBOX

Cann’s Pick: Gen.G

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Chovy (HLE: $11,700) I think if I was forced to choose today, I would call Chovy the best player in the world. His ability to both make advantages on his own in lane 1v1 but also fit into a larger team composition by playing more supportive/control champs sets him apart from the field. He has a 5+ KDA and 108 kills with 182 assists in his 29 games played.  

Value Pick: Ruler (GEN: $11,100) Ruler makes up almost 30% of Gen.G’s kills. He is a proactive ADC who generates leads in lane (+212 gold @10 min and +141 experience). He is into a harder lane opponent (deokdam) which may mean he won’t generate the same laning power as usual, but the top to bottom roster difference between Gen.G and Nongshim should make you feel comfortable knowing that Ruler is on the better side of this matchup. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Zoom (JDG: $7,000) I like Zoom a lot. If Zoom was on a different roster I think you would hear people talk about him more but because JDG has been so inconsistent, he flies under the radar. He goes unnoticed in the laning phase because he gets no jungle support. He is just a touch under 3 in terms of KDA which may make you scratch your head but he is playing eStar and zs. He is averaging lower numbers in gold and experience in lane as well as has a lower KDA. JDG looked better since coming back from the break and it is so clear that eStar is not a cohesive unit that cannot close out games. Zoom will pick up his assists in the late game and limit his deaths in the laning phase. 

Value Pick: Rich (NS: $5,600) This is a sneaky good pick here. Compared to HLE’s top laner, Rich can hold his own. Morgan is safe and rarely looks to make overly aggressive plays in lane. Both picks average deficits in lane in both gold and experience and Rich has a higher kill number (55 v 47). This won’t bank you top tier points, but Rich picks up decent points consistently. 

Jungle

Favorite: Clid (GEN: $6,800) Gen.G are animals when it comes to controlling objectives and setting up teamfights. They are 4th in the LCK in kills (404) and a lot of that stems from Clid getting involved in the lanes early. With 86 kills and a 40% first blood participation rate, this pick can drop big points in a hurry. He has a team kill share percentage of almost 25% which is a great stat to look for in potential point earnings. 

Value Pick: Weiwei (V5: $6,400) Weiwei is not cheaper because he isn’t a good jungler. In fact he is third among LPL junglers in kills (81) and first in team kill participation (76.5%). He has over a 26% cut of the team’s kills which is 4th highest compared to those in his role. SofM and Suning are coming into this match hot, and I am a little leery of picking up V5 here but there is enough data here to prove that Weiwei will pay dividends in this spot. 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Yagao (JDG: $7,600) Take a quake coming at you hot here. Yagao isn’t good, but he is significantly better than eStar’s mid laner irma. There I said the not-so-controversial take there. In their past few games irma has been nothing but a liability. In his last two series he has gone 8-14-16 with a 1.7 KDA. I don’t care about how slow Yagao is in these games, he is nowhere near that slow. JD Gaming should be the significantly stronger team on the day, and I fully expect for Kanavi to pitch a tent mid to create pressure. 

Value Pick: Mole (V5: $6,600) There are a few places where I see V5 winning this match and one of those is mid lane. Angel has a pretty established play style and it usually is a safer scaling variety and relies on his team to make the engages and he follows those up. Mole just does what he wants. Mole has 71 kills with 130 assists with a 25% team kill share percentage. Angel has 58 kills and a team kill percentage of only 20%. One is an impact player for his team and one is not. Suning is just as likely to slip in this match as they are to continue their current ascent. 

ADC

Favorite: huanfeng (SN: $7,800) This is the path for Suning to pick up a win. In terms of team carries, many teams will rely on a few players to get over the finish line. With Suning it really is huanfeng. He has 36% team kill share and a total of 101 kills on the split. Another upside to huanfeng is the fact he is so safe. He has 29 deaths in 21 games and a team death sahre of only 13%. V5’s bot lane is not an intimidating one so this is a safe snag on this slate. 

Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $6,800) This is your risk/reward pick for the day. He has more kills than Ruler (129 v 114) but does have more deaths as well (60 v 48). In lane deokdam is averaging slight gold and experience leads and generally is pretty quiet during the early goings. Where he turns it on is in mid game team fights where he makes up over 40% of all NS kills. While he is a little death prone, it is not as significant if he is not taking up your captain spot so pick away here! I think NS could steal a game off of Gen.G which will turn into more points for you!

Support

Favorite: Vsta (HLE: $5,200) I am curious as to why this isn’t the most expensive player on the board at support. Supporting Deft has its perks and one of them comes in the form of Vsta having 253 assists in 29 games. Vsta has a team kill participation rate of 65% and a first blood participation rate of 21%. HLE will most likely not do too much in the laning phase but once the get to the teamfights keep an eye on Vsta. 

Value Pick: Life (GEN: $4,800) Life is a good pick here not because his scores are all that impressive. Instead this is just a safe pick. Kellin (NS support) is a bit death prone (90 deaths) and usually gets caught aggressively warding and moving throughout the map. I like Gen.G in this match 2-0, pick up Life.  

Team

Favorite: Gen.G ($5,800)  This is one of the statistical leaders in the LCK at the moment. They have the second highest early game rating (62.0) up against the third worst (39.1) and it doesn’t get much better in the mid-late game (8.0 to -0.4). Gen.G is averaging a gold lead at 15 min of +941 while NS’ gold differential at 15 is -1155. I think Gen.G will take early control of this game, NS will make it scrappy in a few places but really struggle to gain any real footing in this series. Should be a 2-0 on the day. 

Value Pick: Suning ($5,000) A dangerous team is a surging team and that is exactly what Suning is right now. Suning is middle of the pack but trending in the right direction with two straight wins after the break while Victory Five lost against LNG and previously struggled to put away the likes of eStar Gaming. This is a solid dog pick and even if they lose, I expect this one to go the distance for you.   

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): huanfeng ($11,700)

Alternate: Chovy ($11,700)

Top: bin ($6,800)

Jungle: Weiwei ($6,400)

Alternate: H4cker ($5,800)
Mid: Angel ($7,400)

ADC: deokdam ($6,800)

Alternate: Ruler ($7,400)

Support: ppgod ($4,600)

Team: Gen.G ($5,800)