LPL/LCK Slate Feb 25th, 2021

Oh My God v Victory Five

Rogue Warrior v Royal Never Give Up

Nongshim RedForce v T1

DWG Kia v Liiv SANDBOX  

Ahhh. Welcome back my good friend- 4 match LPL/LCK slate. Even watching the lower teams play makes me excited because these two regions have some of the highest levels of play. There is both a lot of chalk in this lineup but also some possible places for those lower ranked teams to make a statement today. Does T1 continue to mess with their lineup and fail? Does RNG right the ship after a disappointing end to the first half of the Spring Split? Does OMG have a pulse? A lot of questions and I hope to give you some of those answers! So let’s dive into it! 

Game #1 Oh My God v Victory Five

Cann’s Pick: Victory Five

Game #2: Rogue Warrior v Royal Never Give Up

Cann’s Pick: Royal Never Give Up

Game #2: Nongshim RedForce v T1

Cann’s Pick: T1

Game #2: DWG Kia v Liiv SANDBOX  

Cann’s Pick: DWG Kia 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Gala (RNG: $12,300) This is a ridiculous price but I would be remiss if I didn’t talk about GALA at all on this slate breakdown. I usually stray away from bankrupting myself in the Captain role because while they can almost single handedly carry your team, if you have to buy really subpar players elsewhere you can ruin your chances before games start. GALA has 102 kills (3rd most in the LPL) and 106 assists putting him at a 6.5 KDA. He represents 36% of all of RNG’s kills and with RNG going up against one of the more disappointing teams in Rogue Warriors he seems like a lock. Rogue Warriors looked scrappy at the beginning of the split but at this point they seem pretty broken. If you can squeeze him in, you should get a decent return here. 

Value Pick: Xiaohu (RNG: $10,200) Folks if you are not utilizing the Fantasy Alarm projection machine you aren’t serious about winning your lobbies. Xiaohu (on the FA projection machine) looks to be picking up the most kills (6.79) and is projected to get almost two games with the 10+K/A bonus. If they project him out correctly (With the 2-0 sweep) you could have 71 points in the top lane before the 1.5x multiplier. He has a 3.7 KDA and first blood comes from his lane 17% of the time. Please into the 49 deaths and only 22 kills Ziv should help boost his numbers even more. 

Top Lane

Favorite: Khan (DWG: $6,600) While Khan is not the most kill heavy top laner in the LCK (6th with 45 kills) he is wildly consistent. His opponent (Summit) will look to outplay him 1v1 but that is not going to happen. DWG plays so fast and across the whole map that Khan will never really be left along top. Khan looks to play for the late game team fights and will participate in 63% of all of DWG’s team kills. Liiv SANDBOX just has such a bad lineup top to bottom there aren’t too many places I can see them having an avenue in, least of all the top lane. 

Value Pick: Rich (NS: $5,400)  So looking at the matches where T1 has messed with their lineups is when they are playing a “weaker” opponent. If they do this against NS, Rich should put out great numbers at a cheap price. He has 46 kills and 113 assists (both top 50% of the league). He is death prone since he usually plays main engage champions and a lot of times is one of the first to die. If he can get his kills and assists, the deaths shouldn’t chase you away from this pick. 

Jungle

Favorite: Wei (RNG: $7,200) Upon looking at the stats quickly between Wei and the RW jungler (Haro) kills aren’t a huge separation between them (Wei:59 v Haro:54).The big difference is in the team participation. Wei has 138 assists while Haro has only 51. Wei has almost 70% team kill participation and participates in 19% of all of RNG’s first bloods. Safe pick but at a pretty big price here. I would normally suggest to spread out the love outside of the jungle role as the meta is moving beyond the carry jungle to more of a utility based one.

Value Pick: Peanut (NS: $6,000) Peanut and deokdam are the two best performing players on NS. He has 60 kills and 120+ assists through 24 games. Picking players from the 3-7 team may feel really risky but when you put it in the context of NS only being two games behind T1, it seems like a less crazy pick. It is a solid pick for your GPP lobbies because of the low ownership and when T1 loses, it seems like it gets away from them pretty quickly.  

Mid Lane

Favorite: ShowMaker (DWG: $7,400) While I love Chovy, there really isn’t anyone in the world that is at the same level as ShowMaker when it comes to mid lane play. He has a 5.6 KDA and 87 total kills in 24 games. To understand how impressive this is, Chovy has played 3 more games and has 99 kills and only 15 more assists. Add those games to ShowMaker and he would be your leader in every metric. I like this price on this pick and don’t see many ways for DWG to drop this series to LSB.

Value Pick: Mole (V5: $7,200) I am hesitant to pick Victory 5 all too often but when I do, it is usually Mole. He is the LPL kill leader for mid lane with a total of 71 and also has 117 assists on the split. He has a quarter of all V5 kills and a third of their first blood kills. They are playing OMG who is the worst team in the LPL and could win less than 3 series all split. I don’t trust V5 as a team but Mole will produce against Wuming.   

ADC

Favorite: Ghost (DWG: $7,800) Ghost is quietly one of the strongest players on DWG. He has 114 kills, 118 assists, and only 40 deaths. He is playing LSB’s new ADC Prince who went 2-4-1 in two matches earlier this week. Ghost normally doesn’t pick up many points in lane but this bot lane may be too easy to pass up for DWG’s jungler Canyon. 

Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $6,800) Much like the Peanut pick, this pick entirely hinges on what version of T1 we get. If T1 rolls out Gumayusi, this is a risky pick. I think Gumayusi is one of the best ADCs in the LCK. If they lose their mind again and put Teddy in the game I think deokdam could have an easier time. It is less about how well Teddy can perform individually but more about how little synergy there seems to be with him and Clozer in the lineup. On the other hand deokdam has 108 kills and 60+ assists which the higher kill count makes him a little more worth the risk. 

Support

Favorite: Ming (RNG: $6,000) He supports GALA. That seems to be all I need to say here. Through 18 games he has 187 assists and will most likely crest 200 in the matchup against RW. The RW supports (QuiQui and Reheal) are just complete liabilities for their team. They have over 80 deaths together and only 80 assists. GALA and Ming will have so many opportunities to win lane early and snowball the game out of control. 

Value Pick: Keria (T1: $5,200) This has been one of my more solid picks this split. He is 4th in assist numbers (208) and has the second highest KDA among supports (3.1). He has had to play with two different ADCs who have different playstyles and he has adapted well. T1 is second highest in getting their bot lane first blood with a rate of 35% meaning that with a bottom focused team, investing in a support is a good idea. 

Team

Favorite: DWG Kia ($5,800) This is Vegas’ strongest pick for the slate. The have the second highest gold differential at 15 minutes (+1193) and some of the strongest neutral objective numbers in the league. They are at the top of the standings and there is a real possibility they don’t drop another series this split.   

Value Pick: T1 ($5,200) T1 is a steal at $5,200. Now they struggle with performing at the same level game in and game out but no one can deny that when they are on their game, they are one of the strongest teams in the league. Top rating and dragons taken, heralds taken, and towers taken their ability to play as a team will push NS out of this match entirely.  

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): ShowMaker ($11,100)

Alternate: Canyon ($11,1800)

Top: Xiaohu ($6,800)

Jungle: Peanut ($6,000)

Alternate: Ellim ($6,400)
Mid: Mole ($7,200)

ADC: Gala ($8,200)

Alternate: deokdam ($6,800)

Support: Keria ($5,200)

Team: T1 ($5,200)