Bilibili Gaming v Oh My God!

JD Gaming v Team WE

FunPlus Phoenix v TOP Esports

T1 v Fredit BRION

KT Rolster v Afreeca Freecs  


What a slate of games. This is going to be a fun set of games to watch and each game has an underlying storyline. Will OMG go winless in the first half of the Spring Split? Will Team WE continue their spiral? Does FPX have the firepower to compete with TES? There will be a lot of places for you to win your GPP lobbies with creative picks and smart spending of cash. So let’s dive into it! 

 

Game #1 Bilibili Gaming v Oh My God!

Cann’s Pick: Bilibili Gaming

 

Game #2: JD Gaming v Team WE

Cann’s Pick: JD Gaming 

 

Game #3: FunPlus Phoenix v TOP Esports

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

 

Game #4: T1 v Fredit BRION

Cann’s Pick:  T1

 

Game #5: KT Rolster v Afreeca Freecs  

Cann’s Pick: Afreeca Freecs

 

Fantasy Value Breakdown

 

Captain

 

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $11,100) This will be a risky pick as TES and JackeyLove has been one of the more consistent performers on the team. That being said, Lwx has 20 more kills (92 v 72) and one less death (22 v 23) compared to JackeyLove. Lwx has the highest KDA (I took out the 2 games played support from this sample size for obvious reasons) at a 7.7. Lwx is a clear favorite for split MVP if he continues the run of dominance. Like I have said in other articles, Lwx gives more value for price with the point multiplier rather than in just the traditional ADC role. 

 

Value Pick: Dread (AF: $9,000) The KT Rolster versus Afreeca Freecs match will be a close one. With both teams at 3-4 and both having one more top tier team to face in this half of the split, this could go 2-1 to either team. Dread is a good pick up here though because he is a win condition for AF to win. Junglers are playing in a meta where they get to play carry (a player who gets the majority of resources and kills) and is top 10 in the LCK for kills (66). The value you get for picking a jungler in the captain role means you can dump money in other roles while knowing you’ll get value here. 

 

Top Lane

 

Favorite: Biubiu (BLG: $7,200) I wish BLG played more consistently because watching players like Biubiu is so much fun. Much like Breathe, Biubiu has a tendency to get caught in side lanes by enemy team rotations.The trade off to his 79 deaths (most by any LPL top laner) is his 58 kills (also most by any LPL top laner). With kills being +3 points and deaths only being -1, that is still a +95 point differential without even factoring in assists. Love this pick, especially into the dumpster fire that is OMG.

 

Value Pick: Breathe (TWE: $6,400) This ais going to sound very contrarian for a few reasons. First, I think Team WE are frauds. So you may think, “Ed, why would you pick Breathe?”... well that is reason number two, Breathe is a legit top laner. I know most people will critique some of his decisions, especially when he gets caught in a side lane. I would argue that the resources that other teams need to invest keeping down is what gives Team WE their advantages. They can blind pick him champs (44% counterpick rate) and he consistently has leads in gold (+113), experience (+37) and creep score (+3.1) all average more than opponents. His 32 kills and over 5 KDA makes him a safe pick into JD Gaming’s Zoom.

 

Jungle

 

Favorite: Meteor (BLG: $7,600) This is a take I made day 1 and I will continue to make. Meteor is a legit jungler and possibly the best player on BLG. He has a 7.0 KDA as a jungler is 12th in the LPL in kills (62). The craziest thing is he actually has a relatively low team kill participation (62.6%) which means most of his kills are solo kills and his team is also fighting elsewhere. BLG is a heavy favorite in this matchup and I think Meteor will have his way with OMG’s Aki who has a 2.5 KDA this split.

 

Value Pick Bo (FPX: $7,200) Initially I thought losing Tian in the jungle was going to hurt FPX. In reality, they are performing better with Bo in the lineup. In eight matches Bo has 51 kills. He has more kills than junglers who have had double his matches played (Wei- 48 kills in 15 games, Tarzan-37 kills in 14 games, H4cker- 52 kills in 17 games). Bo is playing out of his mind and will be a real problem for Karsa who has not had the same year in 2021, Much of that stems from the fact that his stronger champions like Lee Sin, Trundle, and Volibear are just not as strong right now. Bo fits within the FPX playstyle and I think they will continue to find success against TES.

 

Mid Lane

 

Favorite: Ucal (KT: $7,000) You are picking Ucal here instead of the AF mid laner (Fly) in this fairly even matchup because of playstyle. Both mid lakers have similar KDAs (Ucal-3.4 and Fly-3.2) but Ucal gets more kills (43 v 33) and has less deaths (37 v 41). This is a value pick to save money in your lineup, not the highest expected  performing mid on the day.

 

Value Pick: knight (TES: $6,800) Plain and simple, knight is the only way in for TES in this matchup. Even with JackeyLove being as good as he is, there is no gap there which has been present in past TES matches. Currently knight has a 7.4 KDA with 47 kills and only 16 deaths in 11 matches him facing Doinb will be the way TES can win. Doinb is more passive and looks to make plays in late game teamfights meaning knight will need to win the laning phase through knight getting solo kills and 1 on 1 advantages.

 

ADC

 

Favorite: Aiming (BLG: $8,200) I still think if you put Aiming on a more consistent team, his stats would probably dwarf most of the LPL. That being said, he is still 5th overall among ADCs in terms of kills (70) and is part of 33% of all of BLG’s first blood kills. The first blood kill can rack up some quality points for a little bit of a cheaper pick compared to the likes of Lwx or JackeyLove. 

 

Value Pick: HyBriD (KT: $7,800) HyBriD is the third highest kill leader among LCK ADCs with a total of 78 kills and has a 3+ KDA through 17 games. KT Rolster as a team has struggled for periods but when they have been able to control that shift from laning phase to mid/late game team fights HyBriD has been able to succeed. If AF cannot set the tone early in this game, HyBriD will run over them in late game team fights. 

 

Support

 

Favorite: Keria (T1: $5,800) While T1 should run over BRION, Keria is the only safe pick from this team. T1 is still playing around with their lineup and each of the other 4 positions have two players who have gotten stage time. Keria should break the 150 assist mark in this matchup. The Fredit BRION bot lane are very weak in the laning phase while the T1 bot lane are probably the best in the LCK in the 2v2. This should be pretty explosive and worth the watch tomorrow!

 

Value Pick: Crisp (FPX: $5,200) The simplest reasoning is he is Lwx’s support. I think that is about it. Even into TES, I have far more faith in the support from FPX who has 164 (first in the LPL) versus Zhou who has only 113. Assists get you 2 points per assist. This is worth it!!

 

Team

 

Favorite: T1 ($5,800) Outside of Keria, this is the safest bet for this match. Even in matches where they have lost, T1 has always drug out games by having explosive early games. They are kill focused around objectives and Fredit struggles with navigating teamfights and this gives T1 a serious advantage.

 

Value Pick: FunPlus Phoenix ($4,800) TOP Esports are just not consistent. This is the biggest gap between FPX and TES and a lot of it is how the different parts work together. 369 in the top lane for TES does not leave as much of an impact which means TES either needs to let him lose or send Karsa up to bail him out. This negatively impacts them then in the late game where they have a -12 MLGR where FPX has a +17.2 with both teams being top two in early game ratings. They also have the highest FPPG on the slate with almost 57 points. GREAT price for them and I think the macro difference is just too much. 

 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

 

Captain (x1.5): Brea($10,800)

Alternate: Clozer ($11,100)

Top: Nuguri ($6,200)

Jungle: Meteor ($7,600)

Alternate: Bo ($7,200)
Mid:Zeka ($8,000)

ADC: Lwx ($7,600)

Alternate: Jiumeng ($7,600)

Support: Crisp ($5,200)

Team: FunPlus Phoenix ($4,800)