League of Legends LPL/LCK DFS Playbook: January 23
Published: Jan 22, 2021
TOP Esports v LGD
FunPlus Phoenix v Suning
Afreeca Freecs v DWG KIA
Fredit BRION v Nongshim RedForce
This is a shorter slate with big implications. There have been some serious surprises thus far about which teams are succeeding and those who are failing. This slate feels a little chalky which means I can almost guarantee this is n’t going to play out like normal. Either way, we are watching the LPL which means we should expect some serious fireworks!
Game #1 TOP Esports v LGD
Cann’s Pick: TOP Esports
Game #2: FunPlus Phoenix v Suning
Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix
Game #2: Afreeca Freecs v DWG KIA
Cann’s Pick: DWG KIA
Game #2: Fredit BRION v Nongshim RedForce
Cann’s Pick: Nongshim RedForce
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Captain
Favorite: JackeyLove (TES: $12,300) JackeyLove is such an interesting case study this year. He is in the top 10 in the LPL for kills. He has consistently lead his lane opponents in Gold, EXP, and CS at 10 minutes in almost every game but yet TES has really struggled to get their footing this split. I think LGD will get 0-2’d by TES but I think there is a larger problem with the team and I am not sure what it is.
Value Pick: ShowMaker (DWG: $11,400) ShowMaker is still the best player in the world. While they dropped a stunner of a series against BRION, I am a firm believer that there is no safer bet than an elite team (in any sport) the match after getting embarrassed. ShowMaker is going to take out his anger on Fly.
Top Lane
Favorite: Rich (NS: $) NS has had a rough time starting this season and some of it was the gap in top lane between Rich and Kingen/Khan. Luckily here for Rich, Hoya is not as good as those two players. I expect NS to continue to turn the ship around here with a lower tier team. Rich played fairly well into LSB on the 14th, but note this is really for value and not the strongest pick for role.
Value Pick: Bin (SUN: $) 4th most in kills (20) and 3rd overall in KDA (4.7) in the LPL right now. While Nuguri is pretty good, Bin is more valuable because is a rock in the Suning teamfight gameplan. He is part of almost 70% of all of Suning’s kills while Nuguri is only part of 49%. This should be a very close match (Could go 2-1 either way) I like the value of Bin being a core of the Suning gameplan.
Jungle
Favorite: Tian (FPX: $6,800) This season Tian is 27 kills, 40 assists, and only 14 deaths through 7 games. FPX plays through Tian and I think this match will go the full three giving Tian a lot of time to pick up serious points for you. SofM is having a pretty down year so far and I think FPX will jump all over hi,. He has 11 kills to 29 deaths and Suning has only won 43% of their matches thus far. TIAN IS MARKED AS QUESTIONABLE FOR THIS MATCH
Value Pick: UmTi (BRI: $6,000) From the LCK side of the slate UmTi has the second most kills, second highest KDA, and second highest team kill participation. I think goes without saying some of the love for BRION comes from their smacking of DWG KIA this week but I think we are starting to see some real potential out of this squad.
Mid Lane
Favorite: knight (TES: $8,000) The biggest issue for knight this year is dying at really unfortunate times. He can get great priority in the mid lane being part of 58% of all of first bloods in TES matches but late game he has seemed lost. Some of it is that teams facing against TES know that their teamfights pivot around knight having opportunities to carry, so they have really focused on not letting knight take over. We see comparatively to other leading LPL mid laners, knight has a dramatic drop off in the assist category. If TES can protect knight in this matchup, I think he builds an early lead and carries it into massive points for you in the late game.
Value Pick: ShowMaker (DWG: $7,600) See the captain breakdown. I don’t really see a stronger pick here.
ADC
Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $7,600) With their loss to EDward Gaming, a lot of people have whitten off FPX as a contender. With EDG continuing to surge past the opposition, more analysts are revisiting that loss as not as damning as before. Lwx leads the LPL with a 7.6 KDA and through 7 games, he has died only 9 times. He plays safe, contributes in fights, and gets leads early on in matches. He will need to continue this performance against huanfeng but FPX has played so controlled in the early game I think Fwx will continue to perform.
Value Pick: deokdam (NS: $7,400) Any NS picks you make will look risky on the surface but remember they have faced some of the top talent in the LCK in their early matches. A risk for deokdam is that he does have a tendency to die in teamfights which makes him not ideal for captain but with his price, you can spend more elsewhere for the slate’s leader from the LCK for kills. Kills are heavily valued in LOL DFS, so this should pay dividends for you.
Support
Favorite: Crisp (FPX: $5,000) This stack makes sense. Crisp has 62 assis and sub 20 deaths in 7 matches. Crisp is in the top 5 of all supports in the LPL in vision and puts a priority on setting up for the success of Lwx. I think Suning is also really struggling to fill the void left by their star support from last year in SwordArt. While ON has done a decent job fitting into the team, you can’t ignore the fact that in the same amount of games played between teams, ON has 17 less assists. There is a huge bot lane difference in this matchup.
Value Pick: Lehends (AF: $4,000) If I asked you from the LCK portion of the slate who has the best KDA amongst all ADC/Support combos you would probably guess DWG KIA with Ghost and BeryL… and you would be wrong. I was shocked looking at the stats on this one. Ghost (4.8) and BeryL (2.7) have lower KDAs compared to the Afreeca Freecs bot lane of Bang (5.3) and Lehends (3.1). I am not calling for an upset in this match, but it should be noted that Ghost has been labeled as a game manager in his World Championship run last year with DWG and the stats tell a pretty similar story. DWG does not rely heavily on their botlane, but it looks like the success of AF is tied directly to their bot lane.
Team
Favorite: TOP Esports ($5,800) TES is on a different level skill wise compared to LGD. TES gets baron 55% of the time and gets first baron 57% of the time. The same stats for LGD? 33% Baron control and gets the first baron 40% of the time. TES also controls the jungle camps at a 52% while LGD is prone to being bullied out of their own side only controlling their jungle at a 45.1%
Value Pick: Nongshim RedForce ($5,200) The biggest rationale here is there are finally catching a break. You are not facing DRX or DWG who are some of the top talent in the LCK. I think we get a better view of who they are as a team after this series. NS likes to play a slower objective focused game that relies on placing wards and vision to make plays. Now NS gets a bit of a break in the schedule.
Cann’s Example Lineup
DraftKings Classic
$50,000 Salary Cap
Captain (x1.5): Lwx ($10,400)
Alternate: Karsa ($11,100)
Top: bin ($6,000)
Jungle: Peanut ($6,800)
Alternate: Canyon ($7,200)
Mid: Knight ($8,000)
ADC: huanfeng ($7,200)
Alternate: deokdam ($7,400)
Support: Crisp ($5,000)
Team: DWG Kia ($5,600)