League of Legends European Championships (LEC): July 4
Ed Cann guides you through Saturday's League of Legends European Championship (LEC) Series for esports DFS contests.
The LEC is now coming down on the opposite side of their split. Once Saturday’s matches complete, we will have a clearer picture on what to expect from these players and teams now that they are halfway through the split. I fully expect the teams who have struggled of late (Schalke 04, Team Vitality, SK Gaming) to continue to do so and the teams rising to the top (Rogue, Fnatic, G2 Esports) to continue to chase the MAD Lions.
Game #1: Rogue versus SK Gaming
Cann’s Pick: Rogue
Game #2: Team Vitality versus Origen
Cann’s Pick: Origen
Game #3: Fnatic versus Schalke 04
Cann’s Pick: Fnatic
Game #4: G2 Esports versus Excel Esports
Cann’s Pick and lock of the week: G2 Esports
Game #5: Misfits versus MAD Lions
Cann’s Pick: MAD Lions
Fantasy Value Breakdown
Cann’s Starting Lineup for 7/4
$49,700 out of the $50,000 salary cap
Captain (x1.5 Points): Hans sama (Rogue)
Top: Alphari (Origen)
Jungle: Inspired (Rogue)
Mid: Humanoid (MAD Lions)
ADC: Carzzy (MAD Lions)
Support: Vander (Rogue)
Team: MAD Lions
Captain (1.5x Points)
Tier 1: Rekkles (Fnatic/$12,600): This pick is EXPENSIVE. But looking at the inability of Schalke 04 to play the video game, Rekkles should have himself a day here. With a KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 6.5 compared to Neon’s 1.3, I think Rekkles will be a safe pick to ensure maximum payoff for the point multiplier here.
Value Pick: Hans sama (Rogue/$11,100): DraftKings continue to under value Rogue and I think you should keep picking them up. While Crownshot (SK Gaming) is a solid ADC, Hans sama and Vander are the second best bot lane pair in the league. Hans sama is currently 27% of his teams damage in matches and is a part of 64% of all of their kills as a team, Hans sama is a safe and cheap alternative for the captain bonus points.
Tier 1: Bwipo (Fnatic/$7,200): This seems like the biggest no brainer for a top lane matchup. While Schalke 04’s top laner (Odoamne) is technically rated higher than Bwipo, there is as close to anything that looks like a guarantee that Schalke 04 find a way to lose this game. I would like Bwipo to play something aggressive and if you pick Bwipo, pray that they stick Odoamne on a tank.
Value Pick: Alphari (Origen/$6,800): I think comparing Alphari directly to Bwipo (Fnatic), most analysts would choose Alphari9 out of 10 times. I think why Alphari is a little lower in price and thus a value pick is because he isn’t playing Schalke 04. While Team Vitality is super inconsistent, having both good and bad performances, I think the gap between Alphari and Caochard is pretty wide. Through the first 7 games there is almost a full 3 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) difference between the two and the gold/experience difference at 10 minutes is overwhelmingly in Alphari’s favor. I think this should be even more comfortable seeing as Nji (Team Vitality’s jungler) doesn’t go top often.
Tier 1: Jankos (G2 Esports/$7,800): If you read my game by game breakdown below, you’ll see all the reasons why I think Jankos will be MVP in this match. Excel Esports’ jungler (Caedrel) just learned what neutral objectives are and how they help you win. The craziest part? Through the first 7 matches neither did G2. They had secured literally 0 barons in the first 3 weeks of the season but it doesn't matter because they are just that much better than other teams in the league. Excel Esports does not have that benefit and will fall behind to the pressure Jankos put on the map.
Value Pick: Inspired (Rogue/$6,400): I don’t particularly like Inspired as a jungler. He currently is at a staggering 57% rate for being part of his matches first blood which is impressive but I feel like Rogue can take a long time to close out. While he isn’t super creative in his pathing or ganks, he is reliable and does a good job limiting mistakes. I think this is a safe and relatively cheap pick up for the jungler from the second seed in the LEC.
Tier 1: Humanoid (MAD Lions/$7,600): This will almost never be a bad pick up. Humanoid is wildly gifted at finding openings in teamfights and exploiting your mistakes. I love his ability to make the most out of limited resources invested into him and his ability to outplay opponents is not questioned by anyone. He boasts almost 36% of MAD Lions team damage through 7 games as well as averaging a sizable gold (+177) and experience (+279) per 10 minutes over opponents.
Value Pick:Nukeduck (Origen/$7,400): Nukeduck has been forgettable in some matches, including their loss to Rogue on Friday, but he usually is not the reason why Origen lose matches. Playing into the 7th ranked mid laner based on DraftKing rankings, I think Nukeduck should be able to handle the also forgettable mid laner from Team Vitality in Milica. Both players share that lack of playmaking coupled with a lack of severe throwing but the difference is Origen should win this matchup.
Tier 1: Upset (Origen/$8,200): I outline why Upset is going to win Origen this game in my game by game breakdown. For those of you here looking for picks, the easiest thing to look at is that Team Vitality struggled a lot with a top tier ADC in Patrik on Friday, and this is going to get worse for them with Upset on Saturday. Upset has been aggressive in teamfights and in losses, still pulls up serious points. This pick is expensive but I think DraftKings put a reasonable price on Upset based on the production he should have in this matchup
Value Pick: Hans sama (Rogue/$7,400): I think Hans sama and Vander are the best pure bot laners in the league. They have amazing synergy and can find the best times to go aggressive while in the laning phase. Instead of adopting the all out aggressive style like most bot lanes, they prefer to focus more on finding the appropriate openings and taking advantage of their other teammates bringing the fight to them.
Tier 1: Kaiser (MAD Lions/$6,000): You could make a case that Kaiser some games should be put into your captain role. I have never seen such a proactive support play this game and I have never seen a team put such a high emphasis on success in their bot lane. He roams, he can play a wide range of champions, and he facilitates Carzzy and Humanoid to output as much damage as possible. He should have a decent day tomorrow against Misfits.
Value Pick: Vander (Rogue/$5,200): This is a pretty big steal for a support this good. To be in the middle of the pack as far as price goes but still have a KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 13.4 through 7 games, you qualify for a steal. And while Crownshot (SK Gaming) is good, I think LIMIT (Support) leaves a lot to be offered. While Vander is proactive, LIMIT tends to be reactive. While this isn’t inherently bad, it makes a difference when you are not as good as your opponents because they will give you a lot more to react to.
Tier 1: Fnatic ($5,800): I think the only thing I need to write here is they are playing Schalke 04. That should wrap up this section.
Value Pick: MAD Lions ($4,800): To find the #1 team in the LEC this low in price is pretty wild. Especially when you put it on the backdrop of they are playing the 7th ranked team according to DraftKings in scoring. It seems pretty crazy to think MAD not only winning this but winning it big as not some sort of assumed outcome but here we are. Expect even if MAD Lions get down in this game, to teamfight their way out of it.
*Hans sama and Vander (ADC and Support-Rogue/$12,600): To find the second best bot lane, that are into a favorable matchup and for this cheap is astounding. Scoop these two up. You can flex Hans sama into the captain role for better overall team value but I do not think you go wrong here. Outside of their losses to MAD Lions and G2, this duo has not seemed challenged at all.
*Selfmade and Rekkles (Jungle and ADC/$15,800): This is an expensive combo but you are picking them up for a specific reason. Both of these players are the carries for Fnatic and they are taking on the worst team in the league in almost every metric possible. Schalke 04 lost in heartbreaking fashion to MAD Lions on Friday and I don’t see a world where they regroup for this match and should fall to 0-9 on the season.
Top Picks: Rekkles, Alphari, Humanoid, Hans sama, Upset
These picks are in positions where they have earned a lot of points historically and they are into very favorable matchups. Finding ways to slot them into your roster where you can will be very beneficial for you to do.
Top Value: ZaZee, Orome, P1noy, Crownshot
These players have had good performances this split but are either not fully proven against big opponents or are at a disadvantage for Saturday’s matches. Pick from this group carefully and don’t dip into these unknowns too much or you risk losing your DPF lobby.
A Game by Game Breakdown
Rogue versus SK Gaming
Rogue (6-2) look like a freight train rolling downhill towards the rest of the LEC dropping matches only to G2 Esports and MAD Lions. Hans sama (ADC) and Vander (Support) have a combined KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 18.9 and they are facing an SK Gaming (4-4) botlane of Crownshot (ADC) and LIMIT (Support) are feast or famine this split. In their match against Schalke04, the pair went deathless but in their loss to Fnatic on Friday they had 8 combined deaths. For them to have a chance in this match the bot lane has to do better keeping pace with Rogue.
Cann’s Winner: Rogue
Most Valuable Player Larssen-Mid-Rogue: In his last match against Origen, Larssen put on a clinic on how to play Azir mid. While his scoreline was good (3 kills, 1 death, 3 assists), what was more impressive was his ability to zone in fights. Larssen got so far ahead of Nukduck’s (Origen) Orianna that he was relegated to hiding in the back of fights for the entirety of the match. While SK Gaming’s ZaZee has proven he can play at a top tier level, he has not shown he can carry if Crownshot has been taken out of relevance in a match which I expect to happen here.
Team Vitality versus Origen
Team Vitality (3-5) had a chance to keep up with the big dogs of the LEC on Friday against Excel Esports but could not keep them within reach in the early game. The biggest disappointment for them was the performance of Comp (ADC) who had been treading water in the middle of the pack of players at his position but this match showed har far he still needs to go. I think this match will be the ideal bounceback match for Origen (4-4). With their loss to Rogue, which took what felt like 4 hours to play out, Origen need to look collectively at what makes them good. They have arguably the strongest top laner (Alphari) and a strong late game ADC (Upset) and they need to focus resources ealy into Alphari and then build a comp around letting Upset to carry late. That is how Origen not only win this matchup, but find success the rest of the way through the split.
Cann’s Winner: Origen
Most Valuable Player Upset-ADC-Origen: Upset is the highest damage dealing ADC in the league. He is part of 82% of Origen’s kills through the first 7 games and has a 11.3 KDA (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) during that same time. Team Vitality cannot force anything in the botlane, and Upset will be in the conversation for best 3-4 ADCs in the league when the season is up. Today will be a good day for Upset and Origen.
Fnatic versus Schalke 04
Schalke 04 (0-8), please. Please have a pulse at some point this split. They had the best early game start on Friday that they could have asked for and lost all momentum in just one fight outside of the MAD Lions’ jungle. They had the turret advantage, early kill advantage, and dragon advantage but they threw it all away. They continue to have the plaguing issue in decisions when the Schalke 04’s jungler (Gilius) tried to flank the teamfight and he was caught. While I think Fnatic (4-4) is far more inconsistent, they will make you pay. Rekkles has had a really good year as one of the top KDAs (Kill/Death/Assist ratio) of 6.5 through the first 7 games but there are questions about his support, Hyllisang. Through the first 7 matches Hyllisang has a KDA of 1.2 and has been responsible for 32.6% of all of Fnatic’s deaths. He needs to keep it clean like he did in his match against SK Gaming on Friday for Fnatic to win.
Cann’s Winner: Fnatic
Most Valuable Player: Selfmade-Jungle-Fnatic: I have really been looking for that other person on Fnatic to step up and be the additional carry alongside Rekkles. After 3 weeks of games, it has been made clear that it is Selfmade who will fill that role. What stands out about Selfmade is the fact that he is a part of 57% of all first bloods for Fnatic which proves more his early aggressive style. With facing Gilius today, who has had some of the worst brainfarts in recent weeks, Selfmade should be able to get early advantages in this game.
G2 Esports versus Excel Esports
G2 Esports (4-3) may be third in the standings but has beaten both of the teams above them in the standings. Meaning? While their record may be 4-3, they need to be a consideration to win another LEC championship. With P1noy (ADC) subbing in for Perkz for the time being, it appears that G2 may be vulnerable, instead Caps (Mid) showed off that there are two legitimate carries on this team with an unbelievable performance against Misfits. Excel Esports (3-5) managed to show some life, and I would like to say I played a part in that. In their match against Team Vitality, they continued their trend of ignoring all neutral objectives and the game was seeming more and more like a coinflip. I chirped them on Twitter mid game, and they started taking dragons and barons and closed out the game. You’re welcome Excel. Unfortunately I am not sure how much of that gameplanning can be done here outside of protecting Patrik (ADC) in fights.
Cann’s Winner and lock of the week: G2 Esports
Most Valuable Player: Jankos-Jungle-G2 Esports: For P1noy (ADC) and Caps (Mid) to have strong games here, Jankos will need to continue to put pressure evenly throughout the map. Jankos does a great job being willing to sacrifice gold, experience, and advantage to his teammates so they can maximize their gameplan. Caedral (Excel) has had almost 15 less assists through 7 games as compared to Jankos and it is because he is focusing more on farming his own jungle as opposed to helping his teammates get ahead.
Misfits versus MAD Lions
I think this game gets a little scrappy. The strength of MAD Lions (7-1) is their ability to shake you off your gameplan. Want to play slow? They force you to play fast. Want to control the dragons? Well you need to contest with the Lions being there first. I think the place where MAD Lions can get tripped up is if the team they are playing is too fast and loose, enter Misfits (4-4). Their playstyle heavily revolves around trying to get their carries (the players responsible for outputting the majority of the damage in fights) ahead and then throwing themselves from skirmish into skirmish until they break the other team. I do also worry for the MAD Lions bot lane strategy of Kaiser (Support) roaming and leaving Carzzy (ADC) alone. Misfits love to play aggressive in the botlane with Kobbe (ADC) and Doss (Support) and this could lead to some hitches for MAD Lions. Should be an entertaining match to watch!
Cann’s Winner: Mad Lions
Most Valuable Player: Crazy-ADC-MAD Lions: Carzzy has absolute swagger which I love in competitors. In a flashy wide receiver in football stepping up to the line, a closing pitcher taking the long walk from the outfield, or a clutch striker stepping up for a PK; they all have that IT factor that gets inside the mental of their opponents. Carzzy and MAD Lions have the same thing.In his postgame interview after their matchup with Schalke on Friday, he literally said, “No one can beat us in draft because we can play anything.” Go off King, go off.