LPL/LCK Slate April 3rd, 2021

(-800) DWG Kia v Hanwha Life Esports (+475)

(-275) FunPlus Phoenix v Rare Atom (+200)

On paper, these should be two pretty close matchups. Only one game separated Rare Atom from FPX and a case could be made for HLE’s mid laner (Chovy) to have been the MVP for the Spring split in the LCK. We are at the point in the playoffs where you have nothing but superstar talent and the fight to move on in the playoffs becomes even more challenging. Let’s dive into it!

Game #1 DWG Kia v Hanwha Life Esports

Cann’s Pick: DWG Kia

Cann’s Breakdown: This should be an interesting one. The storyline that surrounds this match is whether or not ShowMaker is playing. If he is out, HLE has a legit shot at taking this match, with having Chovy controlling the pace of the game through mid. If ShowMaker plays, Canyon can go to the side lanes and DWG will run away with this match. 

Game #2: FunPlus Phoenix v Rare Atom

Cann’s Pick: FunPlus Phoenix

Cann’s Breakdown: Most LPL analysts pegged IG as the probable winner in the RA/IG series and we see what happened there. FPX has the better roster top to bottom but has had some real struggles coming down the stretch of the Spring Split. I see this definitely being a 3-1 but also a possible 3-2.

Fantasy Value Breakdown

Captain

Favorite: Ghost (DWG: $11,400) This pick will rack you serious points with him averaging 80.9 FPPG and having at least 3 pentakills this split. If DWG plays the series without ShowMaker, the value of this pick spikes even more. Right now ShowMaker acts as an equal threat in games but if RangJun has to play, it is all eggs in the Ghost basket. Ghost was the only ADC this split in the LCK to top 200+ kills and the next closest ADC (deokdam) was at 183. Honestly this is pretty decent value for the pick as well. 

Value Pick: FoFo (RA: $10,800)

Top Lane

Favorite: Khan (DWG: $6,400) In their NS series, the top lane was an absolute liability. While Morgan dropped 15 kills and 24 assists, he also had 14 deaths and in the majority of the matches he found himself in a deficit while in lane. Now let Khan have a go at him instead of Rich? I think this gap will be the downfall for HLE. Khan has a 4.0 KDA and a whopping 307 assists (next closest was at 250…). In addition to this, the jungle situation seems to be in flux for HLE which means Morgan may or may not get any support top. 

Value Pick: Nuguri (FPX: $6,000)

Jungle

Favorite: Canyon (DWG: $7,000) This is your LCK Spring Split MVP. While my vote would have gone to Chovy, you can’t really throw shade at Canyon’s performance. He has over 150 kills and nearly 300 assists in 43 games played. He participates in 33% of all of DWG’s first blood kills and he has a kill share of almost 25%. This is a safe pick which is good with the heavier price tag. 

Value Pick: Leyan (RA: $6,400) 

Mid Lane

Favorite: Doinb (FPX: $7,600) With everything being up in the air with ShowMaker, I think one of the safer picks may be Doinb. If FPX plays to their ability level, they should easily dispose of RA. They have a similar playstyle to IG but tended to have a more consistent showing in those matches. The aggressive, team skirmish nature of their game should keep iBoy from the ability to passively farm and instead force him into participating in early fights. Doinb was top four among LPL mid laners in kills (112), second in assists (275), and has a respectable kill participation at 68%. This will be a close series and look for Doinb and FPX to try and force RA to make choices early.

Value Pick: Chovy (HLE: $7,000)   

ADC

Favorite: Lwx (FPX: $7,800) This is the win condition for FPX. If they get Lwx out to an early lead they will win. If RA can protect iBoy this can turn into a coin flip in the later stages of the game. Lwx was fourth in the LPL in kills at 184 as well as having a 32% team kill share percentage. Love this pick and I think this will end up a 3-1 to FPX at the end of the day. 

Value Pick: Deft (HLE: $6,800)

Support

Favorite: BeryL (DWG: $5,800) If you believe in Ghost, there is no reason not to double dip on these points. BeryL was 12 away from dropping 400 assists this split which is nuts to think about, especially with all of the 2-0 series they had this split. They are fast and aggressive in the mid game and BeryL will also follow Canyon in the early game for some assist opportunities as well. I love this, especially when you look at how much Deft and Vsta struggled with deokdam in the previous match.

Value Pick: Crisp (FPX: $5,600) 

Team

Favorite: DWG Kia ($5,600) Like I said in my breakdown, this all comes down to if they are 100% in this matchup. Now the feeling across the LCK is that HLE is a scary team to play and plan for so I have to think they will do anything possible to make sure they have their starting 5. With ShowMaker, Canyon, and Ghost in the lineup there is no team in the world that has the firepower to deal with them. By the end of the split they were averaging over 1,200 gold advantage at 10 minutes and had a dragon control rate of 65%. They beat you lane. They beat you in the mid game. They beat you in objectives. It is just really hard to beat DWG right now. 

Value Pick: Rare Atom ($4,800) 

Cann’s Example Lineup

DraftKings Classic 

$50,000 Salary Cap

Captain (x1.5): Ghost ($11,400)

Alternate: Doinb ($11,400)

Top: Cube ($5,800)

Jungle: Leyan ($6,400)

Alternate: Arthur ($5,800)
Mid: Chovy ($7,000)

ADC: Lwx ($7,800)

Alternate: Deft ($6,800)

Support: Crisp ($5,800)

Team: DWG Kia ($5,600)