Well, we have another Kyle Busch race on our hands. He’s awfully tough to fade, but I question if his head’s in the right spot for today’s race. He ran the Bristol Dirt Nationals last night with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. He’s clearly trying to get ready for next weekend, but he’ll run Saturday’s Truck Series race in Atlanta as well. Regardless you have to get some exposure. As of 5:15 am ET on Saturday, I haven’t fully decided where I stand on the matter of exposure. But you need to get some here.

The contests on DraftKings aren’t great. But the size of the contests interests me the most, not so much the payouts. That being said I’m in the $24, $12, and $4 single-entry contests as well as the Happy Hour and Slingshot. In typical Malin fashion I wanted to play light only to be sucked into going heavy. We have 130 laps on Saturday and the stages will be broken into 30-30-70 segments. This is Atlanta where tire strategy really comes into play here. This track will chew up tires so there will be a good amount of pit stops. The competition caution is on lap 15 and I’d be surprised if anyone opted to stay out and not take tires. During the broadcast you’ll hear plenty about tires, tires, and more tires. We’ve got 91 dominator points available so it’s quite possible Kyle Busch gets a bunch of them early on, but we’ll see how the race shakes out.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($14,000; Starting P2) You have to play him in some lineups. If you’re making three lineups for this race, it’s okay to have one non-Kyle Busch line. We’ll start with the good news: he’s on the front row and he’s in the very best equipment. He’s starting next to his teammate/employee, John Hunter Nemechek, so early dominator points are in play. Even if he falls behind in stage two, he can easily work his way back to the front. Are there reasons why you don’t play him in 100% of your lineups? Yes. The first of which is, don’t be that stupid. Kyle Busch tends to get a lead foot in the Truck and Xfinity races. This results in an untimely speeding-on-pit road penalty. Look at what happened in last year’s Truck race at Atlanta. With about 30-35 laps to go, KB got into the wall and immediately fell off the pace. So he went to pit road and was speeding on entry. Then he was too fast coming off pit road so that was another penalty. He ended up finishing 22nd. So while he’s the best driver and will be the favorite, he can find a way to screw himself. Additionally, this race is being run at 2:30pm ET on Saturday. The Cup race is being run around 3:00pm ET on Sunday. So track conditions should be similar. There’s the possibility he tries to “feel out” the track and see how certain grooves are working when he isn’t leading. I’m still going to have at least 30-40% exposure but keeping in mind he will need to finish high and collect a healthy portion of the 91 dominator points available. And even 30-40% exposure would be way under the field. To get a sense of what you’re potentially missing out on by fading him, here’s his driver averages profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Ross Chastain ($13,000; Starting P40) Chastain will present tremendous chalk this week and you better be prepared to pay a premium because he’s strictly a PD play. Although the conditions were different last June, the watermelon man started 27th and was up to 18th after 12 laps. He ultimately finished sixth here last season and collected some dominator points along the way. In his last three Atlanta races at the Truck level, he’s moved up at least 14 spots in each race and obviously starting P40 lends him to much more than 14 spots.

Austin Hill ($11,000; Starting P6) Austin Hill desperately wants to win at Atlanta. And he was on his way to cruising to an easy victory last year until a very late spin by Chase Elliott of all people threw out a caution and Grant Enfinger ended up scoring the win. Hill led 36 laps, most of them coming in the final stage, and had ten fastest laps. He’s watched plenty of tape to study this track and see what lines run best. He’s religiously observed Kevin Harvick’s previous wins here and he wants to go to victory lane. Why? Because this is considered his home track as he grew up in Winston, GA. He’s starting sixth and he’s coming off a solid run at Vegas a few weeks ago where he finished third following a pair of disappointing races at Daytona. He will make for an intriguing GPP option on Saturday. Update: I meant to write this up originally, but part of the reason Austin Hill said he lost on the restart last summer was because his truck required a few laps to get up to speed. It was a much better long run ride so just something of note. I'm not overthinking it too much, he's worth exposure if looking to get contrarian off Kyle Busch or JHN.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,600; Starting P1) It seems obvious as to why you’re looking at him today. He won at Vegas and has had strong showings all season long. Basically he’s proving to people that gambling on yourself is the best investment you can make. He was at the Cup level a year ago, albeit, driving for a bad team. He took a couple steps down to re-introduce himself to winning and he did just that at Vegas. Intermediate tracks were his bread & butter at Xfinity and he’s won a Truck series race here before. Sure, he has to compete with his boss, Kyle Busch, on the front row. But he danced with the devil a couple weeks ago and emerged as the winner. Don’t shy away from JHN on Saturday. I wouldn’t play him in cash lineups, but he’s firmly in play for GPP’s.

Grant Enfinger ($9,000; Starting P19) Enfinger made me look like a dummy a couple weeks ago. I did not see him running as well as he did in the Codie Rohrbaugh ride but he started P18 and finished seventh at Vegas. Now we get him it a track where, in five races, he’s never finished worse than ninth. He won this race last summer, ruining Austin Hill’s homecoming, and he has three top five finishes here. If he simply matches his worst finish here (ninth place) he’ll return 5X value. People may look at Tyler Ankrum’s PD upside and pay over $10K for him, I’m not falling for it, I’d rather put my trust in Enfinger who has a much better track record here.

Parker Kligerman ($8,600; Starting P15) I’m not really loving Kligerman’s starting spot because it’s higher than we typically see him start. Last year it felt like he was always starting outside the top 30 so it was worth paying up for him. This time around the price tag is suppressed because of the starting spot and he needs to finish seventh to return value for us. Can he do it? Sure. But I’m not convinced he gets there considering he has an average finish of 14.33 in six races here. Maybe he can wow us without practice with the “show up and race” mentality, but I will be light on PK today. Update: The more I look at this play the more I sour on him. I’m keeping him in the Playbook but exposure will certainly be light.

Derek Kraus ($8,100; Starting P29) DraftKings is really trying to get us to take the bait with this price. Kraus is normally a good, cheap paydown option. He’s usually about $1,000 less but he offers much more PD than usual this week. Sometimes the obvious PD slap us in the face, and never could that be more true than with Kraus today. To his credit, he started 11th last year at Atlanta and finished seventh. If he can just finish a clean race he should return value if he finishes in the top 15. He does have some bad luck, sure, but I prefer chasing him over Kligerman.

Raphael Lessard ($7,700; Starting P23) The DFS output has been awful for Lessard this year. I get it, it’s damn near ugly. He has a total of three DraftKings points to his name so far this season. The big heartbreak was when he ran Daytona’s Road course and had a top ten ride before spinning out with a couple laps to go. But this price tag is far too cheap for someone in GMS equipment that can offer PD for us. He’ll need to move up about nine-to-ten spots, but I think he can get there. I may try to be slightly heavier on him than the field, but he’ll likely be a popular selection for those stacking Kyle Busch and/or Ross Chastain. Last year with Kyle Busch Motorsports, he started 19th and finished 18th. That’s not great, but I’m putting more faith in the equipment than the driver on Saturday, which could prove costly.

Ryan Truex ($7,200; Starting P32) I haven’t found myself landing on Truex too much when playing DFS for the Truck series, but I will certainly mix him in today. With Truex you’re hoping he finishes in the top 20. Has he done that this year? Sure, he finished fourth, but that was Daytona. Since then he’s had some misfortunes, but he’s finished in the top 20 three times here including a 13th-place finish last summer at Atlanta. He’s starting farther back obviously, but again the bar is set kind of low for Truex. If he finishes 19th he’s hitting value with ease.

Spencer Davis ($7,000; Starting P39) This is Davis’ first race of the year as he routinely runs a part-time schedule with the Truck series. He can’t really kill you with negative PD since he’s starting 39th. We have no idea how the truck will look of course. But last season, without practice and qualifying, he managed a couple top 15 finishes at intermediate tracks like Homestead (another track that’s tough on tires), Kentucky, Kansas-2, and then in the Fall race at Vegas he started 32nd and finished 19th. Do I wish he was a little bit cheaper? You bet. He needs to finish 23rd to hit 5X value, but he has experience here and he understands the tire strategy. I don’t even expect him to finish on the lead lap, I’m just hoping it’s not a disastrous 2021 debut for Davis later today.

Hailie Deegan ($6,500; Starting P28) I may not have a ton of shares of Deegan simply because I like the next two drivers a little more at cheaper price tags. But I’m still not disappointed in how she’s looked to start the year. She’s had her ride inside the top 15, but just has not had the results yet. I think her development through three races at the truck level has been fine. She may even go overlooked based on the other value plays I’m about to discuss, but one of these days she’s going to finish in the top 15 and return value. She will definitely need to put her trust in her crew chief and spotter for Saturday’s race because she probably doesn’t understand the tire wear here just yet. But if she finishes 19th then she’s hitting value and she’s shown she can run her truck inside the Top 20.

Bret Holmes ($5,900; Starting P35) We’ll give Holmes another shot this weekend. He looked great at Vegas a couple weeks back until he got caught up in a wreck that ended his night. That being said, he still had a top 20 ride and assuming he can hold a decent tire strategy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he logged a top 20 as long as he avoids carnage. If he finishes 23rd he’ll return 5X value and we should feel somewhat good about him moving up a bit.

Josh Berry ($4,900; Starting P18 – Will Drop To Rear) For a while I thought the Playbook would end at Holmes, but Josh Berry will step in for Kris Wright and pilot the 02-car for Young’s Motorsports. Is the equipment good? No. Is the driver good? From what we’ve seen so far at Xfinity, yeah there’s reason for optimism. Berry makes for a decent GPP play. He’s one that’ll probably have some ownership associated with him. A lot of Kyle Busch/Ross Chastain lineups with also contain Berry because he’s under $5K and we’ve seen him log a pair of top ten finishes at Homestead and Las Vegas at Xfinity. He’ll be scored from P18 and he’ll honesty get you 5X value if he simply finishes 18th as well. But if you’re taking him for salary relief, you can honestly deal with him losing a few spots if you pair him with the right dominator.

Fade of the Day: Tyler Ankrum ($10,500; Starting P30) I don’t think many people will be on Ankrum because there are better and cheaper PD plays in the driver pool. Ankrum’s a nice kid, but he has some bad luck at times and he needs a top ten to hit 5X value. Despite the GMS equipment, this just isn’t a play I like today.

Other Drivers To Consider: So when looking at the list above, there are a lot of the obvious plays. Berry and Holmes will be everyone’s favorite value plays. And I mention the easy-to-target PD plays and probably the obvious dominators too. Hell, when Kyle Busch runs in these races, it’s clear he could dominate the race in monster fashion. I do like Todd Gilliland as someone who has finished fourth and ninth in two races here. But I do not expect dominator points from Toddfather. Really look at your lineup construction if playing him because you’ll need one or two other dominators in that build and then you’re probably looking at three value plays offering PD. Brett Moffitt has won here and he offers some PD starting tenth. I just don’t love the equipment, but he’s made the most of it so far. I’ll get a few shares of Sheldon Creed just because he can collect dominator points and possibly win. I don’t like every fully fading Creed so he’s worth throwing into a couple builds. Chandler Smith could be a very sneaky play. I usually try to identify one driver each week starting between 11th and 20th that may come in at low ownership and this week it could be him. I’m not expecting dominator points out of him, but he’s basically hitting value if he moves up two spots and finishes ninth. If he can nab a top five then he’s returning 6X value and he has the equipment to do that. Aside from the value options I’ve already mentioned, I’m not really looking to go anywhere else. It’s a pretty clear-cut overview of the field.

Core Drivers

Top Tier

Mid Range

Value Plays

Kyle Busch

Grant Enfinger

Ryan Truex

Ross Chastain

Raphael Lessard

Bret Holmes

John Hunter Nemechek

 

Josh Berry