NASCAR DFS: Call 811 Before You Dig 200 Playbook

So I’m not loving this race on Saturday. But I didn’t love last week’s Xfinity race either and I actually turned a profit on it, so c’est la vie. I’m taking a different approach for this race. I seemingly have landed on too much chalk the last few weeks so I’m going to try and build more balanced lineups this week rather than going stars and scrubs. In this week’s podcast Selz noted how most of the top scoring drivers here start inside the top 10-12 spots. We saw similar results to Vegas last week so keep that in mind when building lineups today. We don’t necessarily need to drop down to so much PD although there are a few PD plays people will jump on today (lookin’ at you Ty Gibbs).

Saturday’s race will have 200 laps in 45-45-110 increments. There will be a competition caution on lap 20 so keep that in mind that whoever jumps out to the lead may only have a handful of laps to lead early on and then teams might make adjustments. We can see anywhere from four-to-eight cautions for about 30-45 laps. That’s mostly been the trend over the last six races here. It’s an asymmetrical D-ring track with an interesting dogleg where you’ll see most of the field dive below the yellow line so it looks pretty chaotic, but it’s all part of the plan.

Driver Pool

Justin Allgaier ($12,000; Starting P12) I actually plan on being lighter than the field on Allgaier. Perhaps that’s the only reason I’m writing him up. Will I have some shares? Sure, but that’s more in the event that he turns his season around, not so much due to the fact I’m buying into the track history. He’s won here and shown he can collect 50+ laps out front. But he has had some awful luck lately and the results haven’t been there. Again, I’ll get a few shares, but for the most part if we assume the field is looking at his track history then ownership could be high and I will join Robert Frost, and take the road less traveled.

Austin Cindric ($11,200; Starting P3) I’m gonna challenge myself to get more brief with Cindric’s write-ups each week until it eventually pears down to “he’s awesome.” For this week? He’s started the season with four straight finishes in the top six. He won here in the Fall. He’s the class of the field really and probably should be racing at the Cup level. Barring a wreck or an equipment nightmare, he’s always in play.

Harrison Burton ($10,800; Starting P7) I feel like Burton’s a good way to be contrarian this week. He hasn’t been awful this year, but the price tag is an atrocity for Saturday. From a GPP standpoint you can maybe stomach it for the sake of differentiating your lineups. Due to the cost I may be lighter than I was planning on being, but I’m still going to throw him into some builds for the sake of exposure. For what it’s worth, he finished second and sixth at both Phoenix races in 2020.

Riley Herbst ($10,100; Starting P30) It’s becoming more and more difficult to be a Riley Herbst apologist, but the equipment is jstill so good. To the casual player it seems absurd that he’s priced so high when he’s posted negative points in three of the four races this year. But the equipment is great. The jury might still be out on the driver, but to hell with it, he’s better than three finishes outside the top 25. He will need a top 12 finish to return value at this price tag, but he did it at Miami a couple weeks ago. I have faith he can do it so yeah, I’m going back to the Herbst well this week unfortunately. Update: So I haven't built as many lines around Herbst as I was anticipating. If looking to target PD I've mostly gone down to Gibbs, Sieg, Moffitt, and Snider who are cheaper.

Daniel Hemric ($9,700; Starting P1) The pole sitter may turn some people off, but the Wager Alarm Best Bets article came out before the Playbook this week and I do genuinely believe in Daniel Hemric at the Xfinity level. It was a fun joke when he was in the Cup series two years ago and the joke didn’t carry over as well last year. But Hemric has looked great in 2021 with JGR equipment. He’s coming off three straight finishes in the top four including a boatload of dominator points last week at Vegas. The starting spot will turn players off. We gotta mix it up this week and given his recent speed we shouldn’t overlook him Saturday.

Brandon Jones ($9,500; Starting P2) I can’t imagine too many people are looking at Brandon Jones as a laps led dominator. Daniel Hemric has looked great, who is also starting on the pole, while Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger are starting right behind him. But Jones won this race last year and finished third in the Fall. Prior to 2020 this wasn’t one of his better tracks, but he definitely found something here last year. I’m taking a stance this week where I may target some more contrarian options as dominators.

Ty Gibbs ($8,900; Starting P27) Awfully hard to fade Ty Gibbs here. That’s a ballsy decision, but hey if anything were to happen to him, whether it be a wreck, a mechanical issue, a late pit road penalty, then it could pay off. But he should move up from this spot. He put on a show in his first Xfinity start, pulling off a win at the ripe price of $4,700. Obviously we have a mild price jump (ha ha) but the PD is there. For what it’s worth, Gibbs is familiar with this track. In last year’s ARCA race he started on the pole, led 122 laps and finished third and he won Friday night’s ARCA race. The equipment is great and he needs a top 12 to return 5X value. Given what we saw a few weeks ago, he can get there.

Ryan Sieg ($8,600; Starting P31) Throw out track history because the last 12 months of racing have defied odds at times. Sieg doesn’t have the greatest resume here. But he’s a guy on a small team that knows the value of track position and he can find himself in the top 12. The price tag is a little high, but he’s a good driver in decent equipment. Sieg comes with variance. He could finish anywhere from the top ten to outside the top 25. I don’t feel as comfortable in Cash as I would playing Gibbs, but I still want Sieg in a few GPP lineups.

Brett Moffitt ($8,400; Starting P20) I really like Moffitt today if you take a more balanced approach to your lineups rather than going stars & scrubs. Moffitt’s been off our DFS radar mostly due to his starting spot, but starting at P20 he gets 5X values if he finishes in the top ten. In both Xfinity races last year he finished 19^th which wouldn’t help us at all but in three races at the truck level he has three top tens and a win here. Again, take track history with a grain of salt but we’re getting Moffitt with PD today so I will be getting my fix.

Jeb Burton/Josh Berry – I’m going to lump these two together because they kinda read as similar plays for today’s race. Both are starting in the top ten, both are priced about the same in that mid-$7K range and both have shown decent speed. The preferred option is probably Burton considering how fast his car has looked to start the year. His worst finish of the year came last week, and he still registered a top ten at Vegas. Aside from that he has three top five finishes and the Kaulig cars have looked great so far in 2021. Despite the lack of name recognition Berry has been a top 12 driver the last couple weeks. The starting spot doesn’t lend him to a ton of value, nor does it Burton, but you’re hoping both just hold position. And as Matt mentioned on the podcast most of the top scoring drivers at Phoenix tend to come from the front of the pack. So it boils down to which “JB” driver you prefer. I would try to not play them together though.

Timmy Hill ($5,500; Starting P39) Matt and I talked about the new Dad energy on the podcast, so we can look at Timmy Hill as a punt this time around. We’ve looked at Hill a few times and while he’s been hit-or-miss we wipe the slate clean and give him the benefit of the doubt. Who was honestly playing him when he started in the top 20 anyway? He didn’t have the greatest run at Richmond, but he logged a pair of 23^rd-place finishes at Phoenix one year ago. Don’t go heavy with exposure here as there’s always a chance he falls off the lead lap as the race carries on.

Blaine Perkins ($4,700; Starting P28) Perkins might be a chalky play today. He’s the “Who the f*** is that guy?” play of the week, but there’s potential here. He’s mostly run in the ARCA and ARCA West Series, but he’s no stranger to this track although in last Fall’s ARCA West race he had an engine issue. He’s going to be driving the 23-car for Our Motorsports and we saw Tyler Reddick pilot it to a few good finishes the last couple weeks although he was disqualified at Miami. If he moves up and finished 23^rd then he’s hitting 5X value. If he gets your more than that, then we’re looking at gravy. The upside and the equipment don’t necessarily mean you shove him into all your lineups so be a little responsible with exposure.

Kyle Weatherman ($4,600; Starting P26) I never get this kid right, but he is dirt cheap and starting outside the top 25 at least. Additionally, he ran both Richmond races last season gaining ten spots of PD in each race. Now he only needs 23 points to return 5X value, so if he moves up four spots and finishes 22^nd then he’s getting that for us. He’s a good cheap play in GPP’s and I’m not ruling him out for Cash games either, although I have not played Cash this year.

Other Drivers To Target And Final Thoughts: I’m off the Allmendinger train today. Could he go out there and win? Absolutely. At this level and given his experience, he’s one of the best drivers in the field. However, it’s been over two years since he raced here and while he did perfectly fine showing up and racing at most tracks last year, I might let the field target him as a dominator today and let them chase last week’s performance. He’s delivered at least 53 points in three of the four races this year and for good reason. If it kills me so be it, but I’m aiming to be more contrarian Saturday than normal so I may only have one or two shares of Dinger. Myatt Snider makes for an interesting pivot off Brett Moffitt. Snider’s a constant GPP play, but I wonder if the upside is limited here for this race. He started 15^th in both Phoenix races last year and finished 14^th and 18^th respectively.  I’m going to have maybe three shares but I’m not going crazy. Similar to Allmendinger I think I’m off Checkers or Wreckers this week. I targeted Gragson last week and while he probably still finishes in the top ten, maybe even top five, the price tag is tough to pay off without dominator points. The car will be fast of course, but like I said up top, I’m aiming to differentiate. There seems to be a ton of value options on this slate. JJ Yeley is in play, Loris Hezemans (tread carefully, but he’s worth a few shares), Matt Mills, David Starr, etc. all offer positive PD.  Hezemans is a Dutch driver that races mostly in Europe. I don’t believe he has a ton of experience on ovals, but he can’t go backward. Remember, most of the top scorers could come from inside the top 20. As always this section will be updated based on rumblings I find on the old Twittersphere and if I dig up any other nuggets/data building up to lineup lock.

Core Plays

Don’t build solely around the core plays today. I’ve done core plays for five races now and this is the week I’ve been most uncertain about. I am taking a more contrarian approach this week so I don’t land on the same drivers and lineups as everyone else so while I provide these core plays, don’t take them as scripture because the value options aren’t as difficult to read as they have been lately, but there are certainly cheap targets that could do well enough on Saturday.