NASCAR DFS: Alsco Uniforms 300 Playbook

Not quite sure how to open the Xfinity Playbook for Vegas. If you read the Truck Playbook or listened to the podcast… Welcome to Vegas! Pretty standard breakdown here, it’s a 1.5-mile track. We see these types of tracks littered across the NASCAR schedule every year. Vegas is no stranger to a Spring and Fall race. We don’t have Kyle Busch on this slate so that’s at least one elephant that doesn’t need to be addressed. The one thing I’ll say about this slate is that there is a ton of expensive chalk, and the value plays are tough to identify because there aren’t many to feel great about. And once again the mid-range is tough as well. This isn’t the easiest slate to read. The trucks offered up more value plays and fun roster construction. This one is pretty strict and I’ll likely go light today after taking a beating last night. The stage breakdown is 45-45-110 so we have 140 dominator points on the table for Saturday.

Driver Pool

Tyler Reddick ($11,600; Starting P40) You’ll see him written up by every provider. He had a very impressive showing last week in Miami. He finished second but was later DQ’d, but that doesn’t matter for DraftKings. If he finishes in the top 12, he’s giving you 5X value. And he can easily do that. He won here in September of 2019 and he led 92 laps in his last two Vegas races. If he only needs to finish 12^th for 5X value, then everything after that is plenty of delicious gravy. DK seems to have whiffed on the price here.

Noah Gragson ($11,300; Starting P34) Going back to the well with “checks or wreckers” this week. Last week looked like checkers until David Starr blew a tire and got into Gragson’s line and there wasn’t much Gragson could really do. This is Gragson’s home track. In four races here he’s never finished worse than sixth, but he’s only led two laps here. He and Reddick will be plenty popular on Saturday given the PD.

Justin Allgaier ($11,000; Starting P37) This has been quite the forgettable start to the season for Allgaier. He’s finished outside the top 25 in each of the first three races this season. He’s clearly better than that. Like Gragson, he has a good resume at Vegas, but just doesn’t have a win. His worst finish here came two years ago due to an engine issue. In the other dozen races here, he has 11 top ten finishes, including six finishes in the top five. He’s had a little bit of bad luck, but he also hasn’t done himself many favors. Eventually the tide will turn in his favor. And at the very least you can take comfort in him carrying less ownership than Reddick and Gragson.

Austin Cindric ($10,500; Starting P2) Just assume he’s going to be in every Xfinity Playbook going forward. Cindric is simply very good at 1.5-mile tracks. Last year at Vegas he finished second and sixth, he won both Kentucky races, then won at Texas and then finished fourth at Texas in the playoffs, and he also finished third at Charlotte back in May. He just runs very well at 1.5-mile tracks and being on the front row only helps his cause for running with clean air. Like most people, I’m assuming he can get the jump on Myatt Snider early on.

Ty Dillon ($10,200; Starting P20) I’m hoping to be heavier than the field once again. Dillon’s back in the Star Car and while he didn’t have the results we wanted to see in Miami last week, it’s still a phenomenal car and he is capable of winning with this ride. He basically needs to finish in the top seven without dominator points, so in cash games you’ll be better served paying up for Reddick or Gragson. But Dillon’s still a solid GPP play that can get this car in contention come race’s end.

Daniel Hemric ($9,200; Starting P3) Joe Gibbs has to be pretty satisfied with the start of the 2021 season for Daniel Hemric. While he hasn’t collected a win like Ty Gibbs or Christopher Bell (Cup series) have, he certainly hasn’t disappointed by any means. The only killer to Hemric is that he’s starting very high and can lead a few laps, but I’m not sold on him necessarily dominating the race by any means. He has to contend with Austin Cindric starting the row in front of him, and then the Kaulig cars are also starting in the top ten and they’ve shown great speed this year. But you won’t see much ownership on Hemric. He’s coming off back-to-back third place finishes and I’m really hoping we see him get a win this year. It is Vegas, so maybe the chips fall in his favor today.

Riley Herbst ($9,000; Starting P12) I’ll assume ownership is a bit low on Herbst, but I’m still trusting the equipment. And he’s not an entirely awful driver, but he’s no Chase Briscoe. Briscoe ran this equipment very well here in 2020 but we haven’t seen Herbst be able to do the same. Now, we’ve only seen Daytona, then Daytona’s Road Course where he put the car in the grass simply to avoid hitting A.J. Allmendinger, and then last week at Miami he started P29 and finishes 12^th. So that was a good run at least. He’ll basically need a top five finish if he’s to return 5X value without any dominator points so I’d relegate him more to GPP’s. Herbst has finished 9^th, 9^th, and 12^th in three races here so hopefully he can do better on 1.5-mile tracks.

Michael Annett ($8,600; Starting P13) Annett is almost a Cash game staple each week. But he’s on narrative street this week after his father passed away just a few days ago. He finished seventh in both Vegas races a year ago. I hate to sound like a broken record, but when Annett runs a clean race he can routinely finish just inside the top ten. And maybe this week there’s a little extra magic under the hood to get him into the top five. This is just a GPP play if you’re looking for a narrative play.

Brandon Brown ($6,900; Starting P25) Here’s this week’s “nice” play as Brown’s coming off a disappointing finish at Miami after a solid run at both Daytona races. Brown’s got some PD on his side starting P25 and in four races at Las Vegas he has an average finish of 14.75. This isn’t the best equipment, but he typically gets the most out of it. I’m not opposed to using him in cash games, but keep in mind I’ve exclusively just been playing GPP’s this year so I haven’t been trying to read these slates for cash contests.

Gray Gaulding ($6,700; Starting P36) This isn’t a terrible play by any means if needing some value PD. Gaulding just needs to avoid the chaos and not fall more than one lap down. But in three races at Vegas since 2019, he’s finished 12^th, 7^th, and 24^th. He’ll need to crack the top 22 again to return value, but if playing him just be happy if he gets you eight-to-ten spots of positive PD. There’s a small chance he S&P’s so we’ll need to confirm a sponsor today.

Bayley Currey ($6,200; Starting P39) He’s starting on the back row and while I wish he was just a little cheaper, I’ll take the value here. He can’t really hurt you and go backwards but if he somehow finishes 40^th then that’s zero points. HOWEVER, he does have a pair of Top 25 finishes including in this same car last September. Another Top 25 basically returns 5X value, but I’d say he probably finishes 25^th-30^th.

Landon Cassill ($5,300; Starting P14) Simply because I don’t like a lot of the options in this range and trust his Cup series experience, I will acknowledge Cassill for this afternoon’s race. He’s only $5,300 and starting P14. Basically we’re looking for him to finish in the Top 15. And it could happen if we’re dealt a little chaos and he can avoid it. You have to get a little weird here to take down a GPP and Cassill will come with low ownership. Does he have outstanding results from Vegas? No. But he’s an experienced driver with back-to-back top 20’s heading into this race. You can afford him going back a few spots as long as you match him with the right dominators.

Stefan Parsons ($5,200; Starting P33) I typically don’t like to include too many B.J. McLeod Motorsports drivers in my pool, but today I feel like you’ll need one of them for GPP’s. I’ll take Parsons although I hate playing him anywhere not named Daytona, Talladega, or “road course.” But last September he started P26 and finished 20^th. I know others in the industry might feel more optimistic than I do starting these guys, but I prefer targeting McLeod himself more than his drivers.

Jesse Little ($5,000; Starting P32) Finally… FINALLY! The prodigal son of the Xfinity DFS Playbook has returned. And I know I said I don’t trust BJM drivers, but Little was basically my ride-or-die last year. We probably died more times than not, but he’s finally not starting inside the top 20. Little’s mostly a GPP play because he holds his position moderately well at times and he finally offers some PD. I’m worried about him staying on the lead lap, but I do like the potential for him to chip away and gradually move up throughout the race. If he cracks the top 25 he’s returning value. He finished 14^th and 23^rd last year at Las Vegas, plus he logged top 20 finishes at Charlotte, Atlanta, both Homestead races, Kentucky, and both Texas races. That’s a pretty decent resume, but there’s risk here that we need to monitor. I don’t believe Little had a sponsor as recent as yesterday so I’ll try and track that information down prior to lock.

Other Drivers To Monitor: The driver write-ups are a little light today. I simply didn’t want to write up the most expensive drivers simply because I’d be loading up the Playbook with the most expensive plays while throwing in a couple cheap punts. But I’ll mix in some Harrison Burton. He killed me last week at Miami because I liked him as a potential dominator, but I’ll go back to the well with a few shares of him today. Obviously the Kaulig drivers can be rostered. Allmendinger is the best of the bunch, but hats off to Justin Haley who just continues to improve as a driver each week and he’s shown speed everywhere. Ryan Vargas is in play, after he busted early a couple weeks ago with a sponsor from Alvin Kamara. The PD is there for him if he can simply finish the race. The $7K range is pretty bland. Jeffrey Earnhardt had a pretty solid run at Miami last week and he catches my eye with the PD he offers. Jeb Burton (the Kaulig driver not mentioned previously) has kicked off the 2021 season with three straight top five finishes including last week and his price dropped to $7,800. So that’s a bit of an eye opener, but it’s just a question of if he can get the dominator points, which we don’t really look for with Burton. Otherwise, you’re hoping for another top five finish, which could happen as we’ve seen and he could be in the optimal if that’s the case.

Core Drivers

Again, not a fan of the value this week.