NASCAR DFS: Super Start Batteries 188 Playbook

One thing that handicapped us a bit for the Truck series race is that they don’t run many road courses. That’s not the case for Xfinity. They run plenty of road courses so we have one hell of a driver pool to pick from. As mentioned on this week’s Daytona Road Course podcast and in the playbook for last night’s race, your GPP lineup construction should focus on one potential dominator and target drivers offering PD upside. What you can also do is what I did with Raphael Lessard on Friday night. Target a dominator, then find a low-owned driver starting either just inside the top 10-15 and then go with the PD plays. Now Lessard had a top ten truck until a late spin crushed his value, but his was consistently in the top 12 throughout the race. You’ll get drivers starting eight-to-18^th at lower ownership so they’re a good leverage play.

Saturday’s Xfinity race at DRC is set for 52 laps, which means we have just 36.4 dominator points to work with. Also keep in mind the laps that’ll be run under caution so the dominator points might lean closer to 30-32 points. Here’s how last summer’s race at DRC went down:

Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,900; Starting P6) and Austin Cindric ($10,700; Starting P2) DraftKings really doesn’t want us to play the two best road ringers in the field. You can dabble with exposure to Allmendinger today, but the price tag will make it difficult to return value. Simply moving up and finishing first would give him 50 points. So, he needs 4.5 dominator points, which is totally possible but that’s just to reach 5X value. Plan on being lighter than the field with Allmendinger on Saturday. He truly needs a dominant performance to hit his ceiling. Cindric is $200 cheaper but offers even less PD upside. So similar to Allmendinger, exposure should be limited to just GPP’s. If I have to guess, I think Cindric can dominate the first stage, maybe fall back in the field during the second stage and not accumulate dominator points, and then he’ll get back into the thick of it in stage three. Last year he started on the pole, led 21 laps, and had 19 fastest laps. If he has a similar performance on Sunday, with the new scoring, that’s about 59.8 points. That’s good and if you have the right PD plays that structure can take down a GPP, but if he doesn’t win the race, and God forbid has engine issues or goes back a few spots, he’s not helping you out very much. Heed the warning with Dinger and Cindric on Saturday.

Justin Allgaier ($10,500; Starting P25) And here is where the chalk starts taking shape. Allgaier is a pretty good road racer, but he just suffered from constant bad luck a year ago. From 2017-2019 at Watkins Glen he rattled off three straight top five finishes. At Mid-Ohio he had a win and four top ten finishes in five races. Last year at Indy he finished seventh but was consistently running in the top five for most of the race. Last year at DRC he started 17^th and finished ninth. If he finishes eighth with no dominator points he’ll hit 5X value, which given his history at road courses, seems very possible.

Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P26) Look at that you get Gragson for $200 cheaper and he’s one spot in back of him. Gragster finished third here last summer, and he finished third at Indy as well. He has a pair of top fives at the Roval and finished fourth and sixth at Road America. So he’s a good road racer, he just needs a win. Like Allgaier, he’ll be a chalky play given his PD upside.

Justin Haley ($10,000; Starting P29) He’s probably my least favorite of the three previous drivers, but he’s the cheapest of the trio and offers the most PD. If he finishes 11^th, he’s hitting 5X value. At last year’s DRC race, he finished 38^th with a suspension issue, but he was runner-up in the exciting Indy Road Course race, and he’s never finished worse than 11^th at Mid-Ohio and Road America. So, while he doesn’t have the star-spangled resume at road courses that others may have, we know he’s good enough to crack the top ten and if that’s the case he’s easily returning 5X value and more.

Andy Lally ($9,400; Starting P24) Lally only ran two races at the Xfinity level a year ago, but they were both road courses and they were both fifth-place finishes, including DRC. He’s exclusively brought in to drive on road courses. It looks like he’ll be in the 99-car for B.J. McLeod Motorsports. It’s not the greatest equipment, but Lally has shown he can get the best out of any equipment. He will need a top ten for 5X value.

Harrison Burton ($9,200; Starting P4) Simply a leverage play here on the off chance anything happens to Cindric or Dinger to start the race. Burton was thrown to the fire last season with little practice on road courses, a style of track he clearly needed experience at. But, he’s got the experience and probably comes with low ownership. If he gets dominator points he has an easier path to value than Cindric or Dinger. I’ll throw him in a couple lineups, but it won’t be a ton. We have to be a little realistic about his upside.

Brandon Jones ($9,000; Starting P39) Easily the chalk of the slate right here. Jones is starting second-to-last and can’t lose any points on PD, save for one. I’m honestly surprised he wasn’t priced around $10,000 similar to Haley. If he finishes 18^th he’ll hit 5X value. It’s a little absurd how DK tries to make you not play Cindric and Dinger, but they’re serving Jones on a platter. Sure, it basically feels like a trap. But Jones is a virtual lock in cash games. Even if he wrecks, he’ll be hurting plenty of lineups. He finished second here last year after all. He has an average finish of 12.75 at Watkins Glen, and average finish of 16.0 at Road America, and 19.00 at Mid-Ohio. Even if he’s just hitting his averages he’s getting 5X value. If you want to be lighter than the field in GPP’s, that’s fine. Still be sure to get a good amount of exposure. He’ll be very popular in Cash and still heavily owned in GPP’s so if you want to hedge, I can see it working out if he wrecks or has any mechanical issues.

Alex Labbe ($8,880; Starting P36) Believe it or not, I almost left Labbe out of the playbook. I simply glossed over him when initially looking at prices but caught the mistake while editing. Labbe’s not the greatest driver and he’s not in the greatest equipment, but he’s shown up previously on road courses. In three races at the Charlotte Roval he has an average start of 9.0 and an average finish of 7.67 including a fourth place finish last year and a sixth place finish the year before. Last year’s race at Indy? He started P22 and finished eighth. In his lone race at Mid-Ohio in 2018 he started 13^th and finished ninth. In two Road America races he’s finished 15^th and 16^th while gaining at least six spots in each race, and he has a pair of top 20 finishes at Watkins Glen.  I hope you get the idea. This time around the price is elevated but he has plenty of PD upside. If he finishes around 17^th or 18^th he’ll get close to hitting value.

Michael Annett ($8,700; Starting P33) This is potentially the next cash game lock aside from Jones. We love to make fun of Annett for normally starting P9 and finishing seventh or eighth. He’s just that steady. We never get him starting this far back and DraftKings beefed on the pricing. If he moves up and finishes 16^th that’s 5X value. He can easily do that. He finished ninth at Indy Road Course last year and 15^th at DRC as well. Additionally, he’s finished in the top 12 in the last four Road America races, and he’s had decent showing at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. These tracks aren’t his favorite, but he should at least finish inside the Top 15.

Jade Buford ($8,500; Starting P28) Buford’s a very good road racer, but sadly the price tag is inflated a bit. He had an average start of 23.0 at road courses last year with an average finish of 14.25 and he’s starting P28 on Saturday. He will need a Top 15 finish to return value so I’m hesitant to use him in cash contests, but he certainly has GPP upside here.

Jeremy Clements ($8,400; Starting P18) I’m a little put off by the price tag. I honestly though he’d be a little cheaper, but DK’s clearly aware he’s a decent road racer. He needs 42 points for 5X value, which would be a top ten finish. That’s not necessarily a lock so he’s not really in play for cash lineups. But he started in the exact same spot last summer and ended up finishing sixth. He also won at Road America in 2017 but wrecked out of last year’s RA race. He finished 13^th at Indy’s road course a year ago, and he’s run well at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. He’s a great play in GPP’s, but it’s no sure thing he moves up enough for cash lineups.

Preston Pardus ($7,600; Starting P23) IF he can finish the race there’s a good chance he’s returning value. However, the few times he’s run at the Xfinity level, he’s had some bad luck with wrecking or just having mechanical issues. But there’s certainly upside here and the price tag is pretty helpful to lineup construction. He finished tenth at the Indy Road Course last year and finished eighth at Road America. Again, if he finishes, there’s upside here for GPP’s.

Cody Ware ($6,200; Starting P38) Ware is a decent road racer and the price tag is okay given how far back he’s starting. He’s not at risk of losing as many points as Gibbs or Wright, who you’ll read up on shortly. In last year’s Roval, Ware started 38^th and finished seventh. The year before he started 32^nd and finished 24^th. Let’s jump over to Mid-Ohio where he wrecked out of the 2018 race, but finished 23^rd after starting 40^th in 2017. Way back in 2014 he started 26^th and finished 15^th. And lastly, at Watkins Glen he has an average starting position of 31.0 and an average finishing position of 25.33, so he can move up and he’s cheap. He needs 31 points for 5X value which is basically a Top 25 finish. I’d say that’s reasonable and will throw him in a few lineups on Saturday.

Stephen Leicht ($5,600; Starting P34) Everyone knows you basically only play Leicht at road courses. Last year he was a S&P darling, but he’s playable at tracks that require a right turn. Are the results phenomenal? Of course not, but he offers some PD. We’ve seen him move up about seven-to-eight spots in road course races, so let’s just see what happens. He’s cheap and starting pretty far back. He’ll need to move up ten spots and finish 24^th to hit 5X value, but that’s definitely in play.

Timmy Hill ($5,200; Starting P17) Timmy Hill drove the wheels off his truck Friday night to an impressive ninth-place finish after starting outside the top 30. It was a slow progression for him to the front of the pack and he’s a fun driver to root for. For Saturday’s Xfinity race, there are less PD points at his disposal, but he’s still in play for GPP’s. If he holds his starting spot, he’ll hit 5X value, hence the GPP-only recommendation. If he can move up that’s gravy, but keep the exposure in check.

Ty Gibbs ($4,700; Starting P15) He’s Joe Gibbs grandson and he’s a sub-$5K in the Star Car for JGR. It’s clearly a great ride and he’s a fantastic up-and-coming driver. This is way too cheap. He can actually lose three starting spots and still sniff 5X value. This is a solid cheap punt for GPP’s. I’m curious as to what his ownership will be.

Other Drivers To Consider: If playing Ty Gibbs, Timmy Hill, or Stephen Leicht you should have enough flexibility to round out the rest of your lineup with other drivers mentioned above. But there are a few extra drivers I’m looking at on Saturday. Miguel Paludo starts P35 and has experience on road courses. He hasn’t raced in the Xfinity level in almost nine years, but he’s mostly run road courses and more recently ran the Porsche GT3 Carrera Cup Series in South America. He finished third at Bowmanville in the Truck series back in 2013 and he logged a top 15 finish at Watkins Glen at this level in 2012. Riley Herbst is worth taking a look at as well after a good showing in Friday’s truck series race as he finished fifth. Ryan Sieg is a good PD option starting P27 if he can just avoid bad luck. Kris Wright is also a driver to look at and he’s $100 cheaper than Ty Gibbs and he’s starting P19. People may flock to Gibbs’ name recognition, but Wright could fly under-the-radar.

Core Drivers