NASCAR DFS: Xfinity Beef It's What's for Dinner 300

Most recent updates as of 2:00pm ET are located at the bottom in the Final Thoughts sub-section

Another day, another Daytona race where my content will be updated throughout. It seems like most of you took my advice on playing the Truck series light Friday night, and that’s a great. Nobody lost a ton of dough and a few of you came away with a little extra green. We have to take the same approach once again for the Xfinity race on Saturday. The XFIN race is a little more predictable. There are generally fewer cautions and it tends to be a cleaner race than what we all saw on Friday night (ten caution for 43 yellow-flag laps). The Truck series could have had more yellow flags than what we got, but I expect most of the chaos to hold off until the third stage on Saturday for XFIN.

The rules still apply for XFIN on Saturday. Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. Stack teams and manufacturers with drivers that offer position differential. Don’t feel obligated to focus on dominator points since there are only 84 available and you saw how evenly dispersed they tend to be on Friday night. No driver is necessarily out of the question for Saturday, but again we’re still waiting on the starting order to be determined via qualifying.

Here’s a breakdown of Manufacturers so you get a sense of who may work/pit together. Keep in mind, remember in the first duel on Thursday when the Toyotas pitted but Denny Hamlin was the first to exit pit road by himself and how he lacked speed coming back onto the track, and the field quickly passed him? (Sorry for the run-on sentence) That’s why teams and manufacturers will work and pit together here.

• Toyota: Daniel Hemric, Brandon Jones, Harrison Burton, Ty Dillon, Brandon Gdovic, Robby Lyons

• Ford: Riley Herbst, Austin Cindric, Ryan Sieg, Timmy Hill, Chad Finchum

• Chevrolet: Everyone else

Qualifying Notes (As of 10:30am ET on Saturday 2/13/21)

Qualifying for Saturday’s Xfinity race is a mess at the moment. Heavy rain is projected to last a while so there’s a chance there’s no qualifying. If that’s the case then the field expands from 36 drivers to 40 and if that’s the case then Tyler Reddick, Jordan Anderson, Chris Cockrum, Ronnie Bassett Jr., and Mario Gosselin would report as DNQ and not run in the actual race. If qualifying is also rained out this presents a ton of chalk at the rear like Ty Dillon, A.J. Allmendinger, Gray Gaulding, and Timmy Hill. They would all start outside the Top 30. Here’s a really good tweet from Bob Pockrass explaining what would happen:

The written number to the right of every driver’s name is where they would start. If they’re outside the Top 40, they wouldn’t run. If they have a ‘N’ next to their name they won’t run without qualifying. So obviously for the sake of fair competition, we’re hoping they run qualifying. If not, we’ll run into a lot of chalk that we may want to avoid, but we’ll cross that bridge with updates through the day when we get to it.

Driver Pool

I may be a little light on the three most expensive drivers today. It really boils down to qualifying, but I do like Gragson a bit. He won this race a year ago and he’s never finished worse than 11th at Talladega. He’s back with JR Motorsports in the 9-car and he’ll have plenty of teammates and Chevy’s to work with for this race. Cindric is an all-or-nothing GPP play at superspeedways and if he starts further back that’ll only juice up his ownership. He’s just as likely to finish in the Top 5-10 as he is to wreck. Allgaier has some bad luck here. He came in second here two years ago, but since 2017 he’s finished outside the Top 25 on five different occasions at Daytona.

A.J. Allmendinger ($9,900): So Pockrass is predicting a pretty good day for Kaulig Racing:

This isn’t surprising. Kaulig consistently brings fast cars to superspeedways and these are three drivers who could run well as a group throughout the day. Dinger didn’t have great success at superspeedways outside of finishing seventh in June’s race at Talladega. However, in his last four Cup races at Daytona he didn’t finish outside the top ten. Last year Dinger was just a part-time driver for Kaulig, but this year he’s committed to it full-time which is pretty impressive for a guy that looked to be retired not too long ago. Pockrass might be eating the chalk with his prediction, but it’s well within reason the Kaulig drivers all finish well.

Ty Dillon ($9,500): It feels weird that Ty won’t be running the Daytona 500 this year. It was an odd night for the Dillons on Thursday. Ty failed to qualify for the race, while his brother Austin went on to win one of the duels. Alas, Ty Dillon steps into what Joe Gibbs Racing is dubbing as the “star car.” Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and even Martin Truex Jr. (who hasn’t raced in Xfinity in over a decade) will step behind the wheel of this 54-car for at least one race. Joe Gibbs grandson, Ty Gibbs, will also make a few appearances, but for this race it’ll be Ty Dillon. Superspeedways are where Dillon can really shine. At Talladega he has an average starting spot of 25.8 and an average finish of 12.00, while at Daytona he has an average starting spot of 18.6 and an average finishing position of 16.12. Last year wasn’t his year at Daytona. In both races he wrecked out, but prior to that he had a streak of three straight finishes inside the top six. I think even at $9,500 he’s a bit of a bargain and will likely be a chalky play given the speed he showed during Friday’s practice.

Justin Haley ($9,400): It’s impossible to discuss Daytona or Talladega and not mention Justin Haley. Given all the unknowns we have with superspeedways and how it’s all about being in contention and avoiding the Big One, Haley just constantly has himself in position to win at superspeedways. His last three Daytona races at the Xfinity level include a win, a sixth-place finish, and a runner-up finish in July of 2019. But he also ran in the Cup series race in July of 2019 and won that one in a shortened contest due to weather. At Talladega? Well not to boast, but he won both races there last year. It’s truly mind blowing how dominant he is at superspeedways. Given his pedigree I may try to be lighter than the field on him, which may kill me but hey, I’m only playing the Happy Hour contest today. He will be a popular GPP play no matter where he’s starting but we should safely assume he’ll start in the top ten.

Brandon Jones ($9,000): In six races since moving to Joe Gibbs Racing, Brandon Jones has finished outside the Top 13 at Daytona just once and it was due to a chassis issue. In the last two February races at Daytona he’s finished fourth and third, and let’s not forget he finished fourth at Talladega in the Fall. The JGR cars all ran practice speeds in the top ten and assuming they run together again on Sunday, they should remain at the front. Keep in mind, JGR stacks will be a popular combo for DFS construction, but there are so many ways you could build a lineup I wouldn’t worry about it too much.

Harrison Burton ($8,800): Harrison Burton impressed a ton of people in his full-season debut in 2020. He went on to win four races and finished second at this race a year ago. At the end of the summer he’d log another top five finish at Daytona to round out a stellar rookie campaign. Expectations are through the roof for him in 2021. Starting spot will obviously play a role but he’s looking to challenge Austin Cindric as this year’s dominant driver.

Michael Annett ($8,700): We can normally rely on Michael Annett as a “Steady Eddie” kind of play most weeks outside of Daytona. But even at this track he’s worth rostering, but only in GPP’s. He’s wrecked out of seven of his last 14 races at Daytona, but he does have a win here from two years ago and three Top 11 finishes in his last four races here. I’m no wizard but I’d say he probably qualifies inside the Top 15 which takes him out of Cash consideration and if he qualifies inside the Top 10 like he has the last four years then I’m not as inclined to play him in GPP’s. But typically with Annett at superspeedways, he comes with lower ownership. 

Jeb Burton ($8,500): Jeb’s got himself a solid ride this year. He replaces Ross Chastain in the 10-car for Kaulig Racing and I think this is a great fit for him. Kaulig had a lot of success and honestly a roster of Burton, Haley, and A.J. Allmendinger is solid on all fronts. Burton finished third in last summer’s Talladega race and don’t forget how great he looked a year ago in this race. Burton ended up finishing 23rd but he had an average running position in the top five for most of the race and he led 26 laps. Don’t sleep on him today. 

Myatt Snider ($8,100): This is simple. If he starts further back, great, play him. If not, he’s probably an easy fade. Snider started on the pole in last year’s race and led 22 laps but finished 33rd due to a wreck. He’s with RCR on a full-time basis this year now that Fast Pasta (Anthony Alfredo) moved up to the Cup series and gone is the super-fast 21 RCR car. This year it looks like it’ll be the super-fast 2-car for RCR. He showed some nice speed in practice and given how loaded the field is with Chevy’s he’ll have plenty of people to work with. 

Gray Gaulding ($6,500): Another superspeedway guy we can get exposure to. In his last two races at Daytona, Gaulding has finished eighth and second. Oddly enough his last two finishes at Talladega have also been eighth and second. He’s a great pay down option that may come with some ownership but I’ll probably have him in about 20-25% of my builds today.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,400): Play at your own risk. But Tommy Joe Martins typically provides position differential at super speedways. Last year he logged a pair of Top 20 finishes at Talladega and another at the end of the Summer at Daytona. In general, he’s a decent option to get a Top 20 run. But if you watched him last year you know he has a bit of bad luck, but that’s avoided him at superspeedways for the most part. If he starts outside the Top 25, he’s a good option to build around.

Timmy Hill ($6,100): I can sense your eyerolls through the monitor, but realistically Timmy Hill performs well at superspeedways and Bristol. At Daytona he has an average starting spot of 27.8 and an average finish of 13.8 while at Talladega he typically starts around 32.3 and finishes around 21.1. He also finished third in this race a year ago so if you roster him do so with the mentality that he probably hangs around the back for a good portion of the race, but he’s a very good position differential candidate.

Jordan Anderson ($4,900): If he qualifies, he’s a nice cheap option for today’s race. If you watched last night’s truck race, you knew he gained a ton of fans with this post-race interview:

Back-to-back races at Daytona where he finished second in the Truck series and there’s not an ounce of heartbreak. You don’t see that kind of positivity from Johnny Sauter. His 31-Chevy showed decent speed at practice, but it was right around the middle of the pack and it’ll depend on how he does qualifying on his own this morning. But if he gets into the race, he’ll be one of the few drivers I’ll pull for whether I roster him or not. But keep in mind if they don’t run qualifying then he will not run in the actual race.

Final Thoughts: The Core Plays and “Other Drivers Worth Considering” will be added once we know the starting order and if they’ll get this race in today. Here is how the starting lineup looks:

So as you can see, we have a lot of chalk. Everyone will be all over Allmendinger, Dillon, and Gaulding. I'm planning on being lighter than the field. I don't like how much obvious chalk there is and I could very well just play a few lineups today. If playing cash then yes, Allmendinger and Ty Dillon are easy plays as you'll see in the Core Plays below. But for GPP's I'll go lighter on the obvious chalk in the back and instead pivot to the value plays that offer as much PD upside at a lower cost and less ownership. Don't hesitate to pair teammates and manufacturers. I'll be in the chat up until lineup lock so don't hesitate to ask questions!

Core Plays: