Just three races left in the Xfinity schedule and unfortunately, we have to endure one of the more boring tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Texas is a pretty cut-and-dry 1.5-mile track. They ran this race earlier this year where Kyle Busch won, but was later disqualified so Austin Cindric was the awarded the win. As for where we stand right now? Chase Briscoe punched his ticket to the Championship Four in Phoenix. The rest of the playoff standings are as follows: Justin Allgaier, Brandon Jones, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Ross Chastain, Ryan Sieg, and Noah Gragson. In the case of the Cindric/Haley cutoff line, Cindric is currently only two points ahead of Haley but he is a huge favorite to win today’s race. We’ll get 200 laps for Saturday’s race which give us 150 dominator points. The stages will be run in 45-45-110 lap segments with a competition caution after Lap 20. All teams get five sets of tires and the fuel run is about 59-63 laps. I’m not in love with the pricing and starting spots for a lot of drivers so as is usually the case around this time of year, the contests are getting worse but I’ll still throw 20 lineups into the Happy Hour contest for fun.

Driver Pool

Austin Cindric ($11,400; Starting P7) We’ll kick off the Playbook with the obvious play of the day in Cindric. He got into an early wreck last week with Noah Gragson and it knocked him down to fourth in the standings. There is a little debate on the ole Twitter machine that Noah Gragson could try to dump Cindric in this race after the 22 and the 9 took each other out last week. Nobody would really put it passed Gragson to do that considering he wrecked his own teammate (Justin Allgaier) at Bristol earlier this year. It’s been a hot minute since we’ve seen Cindric win a race but let’s not forget he has been great at 1.5-mile tracks this year and despite being handed the win via disqualification earlier this year he did lead 44 laps with 29 fastest laps. He’s a great play for Cash and GPP lineups, but ownership will be high.

Chase Briscoe ($11,100; Starting P1) So Briscoe is on the pole for Saturday’s race which is normally a good sign as the leader will get the clean air and run away with some dominator points. We had a good debate on the podcast this week about approaching drivers that have already punched tickets to the championship race. Matt makes a good argument that there is still plenty of motivation for these drivers as they can take away another automatic ticket from another driver and force them in via points. However, Ed and I take the approach that if you’re eligible for Phoenix, you are probably checked out for the next couple weeks. I’ll still play Briscoe in a couple lineups. You almost have to. He’s won nine races this year, he’s probably going to win the Xfinity championship (it’ll be either him or Cindric) and it was announced earlier this week that he’ll replace Clint Bowyer in the 14-car next year for Stewart-Haas Racing at the Cup level. If he wasn’t on the pole I’d be less inclined to play him. But you have to get a little exposure knowing he would love to get to ten wins on the year.

Justin Allgaier ($10,800; Starting P5) Earlier this year it looked like Allgaier would get his first win of the season at Texas. He won the first two stages here, led 98 laps, and registered 43 fastest laps. Eventually he’d settle and finish fourth but it was still a very good run out of the 7-car. Allgaier’s currently only 11 points above the cutoff line in the playoff standings, which isn’t the greatest cushion for the playoffs. He’d love to get a win and qualify for Phoenix (as would six other drivers in the field) and he’s capable of doing so. The price tag and starting spot lead me to believe he’s more of a GPP play over Cash. The issue with Cash games on this slate is there is too much chalk, but I do really like Allgaier in GPP’s.

Harrison Burton ($10,400; Starting P12) This is a great starting spot for Burton. Sadly, the price tag is still high. We could see one of those rare non-playoff drivers stealing a win at Texas and Burton’s a candidate to do so. It’s certainly been a hot minute since he’s really looked good, but he’s worth a stab in GPP’s. Personally, I’m not going too heavy on him as I don’t feel he gets many dominator points today, but if he pulls off another Top 5 finish at Texas he’ll return value for you. The problem is there are cheaper drivers with upside that could also deliver more value.

Noah Gragson ($10,100; Starting P9) Historically this is not Gragson’s best track. He’s been involved in some wrecks the last couple races at Texas including finishing under NASCAR’s damaged vehicle policy in the summer. In March of 2019, the one time he did run clean here, he only finished 13th. And as mentioned above, it’s possible he gets a little testy with Austin Cindric. Gragson’s always a risky play as he’s built up a reputation as a dirty driver. He also knows he’s 33 points off the cutoff line for Phoenix so a win or at least a very impressive performance are necessary for him to move on so maybe he looks for a clean run/win ahead of Martinsville next week.

Anthony Alfredo ($9,600; Starting P18) Fast Pasta will be a very popular play today in Cash and GPP contests. The 21-car for RCR has been fantastic this year and the position differential is certainly on Alfredo’s side this week. Following a pretty scary wreck at Kansas last week he’s looking for a little redemption. He was regularly running inside the top ten at the previous Texas race before getting into another wreck. Alfredo may not have the top five upside like the  playoff drivers have but we won’t ignore the PD at this reasonable price tag.

Riley Herbst ($9,000; Starting P19) Obvious PD play here with Herbst. He’s just been on a bit of a cold streak lately but this is a fantastic starting spot for a guy that normally starts in the Top Ten. He needs 45 points for 5X value so he’ll need to finish ninth or better. And that’s well within reach but he’s had such a mixed bag of results you just hope he can avoid putting his car in the wall. Keep exposure to just GPP’s.

Jeb Burton ($8,900; Starting P8) Burton’s a pretty solid GPP play here, it really just depends on which driver shows up today. He hasn’t raced since Bristol last month, but he has four Top Ten finishes in his last five Xfinity races and that includes finishing sixth at Texas three months ago. This is a high variance play, folks. He either finishes inside the Top Ten or he’s outside the Top 25. There’s really no middle ground with him.

Michael Annett ($8,700; Starting P10) Annett’s a pretty safe Cash game play. Even when he isn’t returning 5X value, he’s providing a safe enough floor for 4X value. I’d love it if he were maybe $400-$500 cheaper but he’s still $200 cheaper than last week where he started P11 and finished eighth. That returned only 39 points, which is about 4.4X value. It’s rare that we have a play that is better for Cash than GPP’s. But we know Annett provides a good floor, it’s the ceiling that isn’t there for him. He usually finishes in the seventh-to-ninth place range as has been noted plenty of times. He’ll need a Top 5 to really help you out in GPP’s.

Ryan Sieg ($8,600; Starting P4) There isn’t really much in play for Sieg in terms of PD and the price tag is very high, but that could push ownership down. He’s still a Playoff Eight driver and a win qualifies him for Phoenix. He knows he needs to win to qualify for Phoenix as well and we’ve seen him become more aggressive and make the moves to get to the front. He comes in with three Top Five finishes in his last four races and he even led 19 laps last week at Kansas. He finished tenth here a year ago, but we know he’s looking for a better result today. He’s worth making a lineup or two for your GPP’s if building multiple lineups. With Martinsville on tap next weekend this might be his best shot to make the Championship Four in the desert.

Josh Williams ($6,800; Starting P13) I can get on board with Williams as a GPP play today. It’s quite likely he goes backward so he’s not in play in Cash games. However, he pulled off a Top Ten last week at Kansas and ownership will be low. I may only plug him into two or three builds and hope for a Top 12 finish in GPP’s. A similar play for just $600 more would be Brandon Brown at $7,400 starting P15. Finishing 11th for him would return 5X value, but DFS players have more faith in Brown as he’s shown a safer floor. I’ll get exposure to both in a few GPP’s but you’ll find less ownership on Williams.

Jesse Little ($6,600; Starting P27) DraftKings has raised the price on our sweet prince. Gone are the days of getting Little at the juicy price tag under $5,500 but he delivered 6X value last week at Kansas, another 1.5-mile track. He’ll need to finish 19th or better to return 5X value today and that’s still well within reach. He’s done really well on these “intermediate” tracks and he had a Top 15 day at Texas earlier this year. I actually may go lighter on ownership than I normally do. I think the field has caught on to Little just a bit. I still love the guy as he’s a mainstay in the Xfinity Playbook on 1.5-mile tracks. But believe it or not, my exposure will be heavier on the next driver.

BJ McLeod ($6,400; Starting P30) McLeod’s in a very good spot this week. He’ll actually be running in the 90-car for DGM Racing and that’s a much better ride than he’s normally used to and he comes with a lot of PD. He’s also had a pretty good week after it was announced that McLeod and Matt Tifft will be co-owners together for a Cup car next season so this has been a week of good news for McLeod. Good news + Good car = Good vibes

Colby Howard ($5,600; Starting P33) For a guy who has done well at 1.5-mile tracks in 2020, this is too good of a spot to ignore in GPP’s and maybe even Cash games. The downside is that he probably gets you 5X-6X value or he wrecks out of the race. So perhaps we’ll take Cash eligibility off the table. He grabbed a Top 15 at Atlanta earlier this year and he started P35 at Texas in the summer and finished 23rd. A Top 25 finish from Howard will easily bring value back on this slate.

Bayley Currey ($5,100; Starting P24) Call me crazy, but I feel like we’ve had a strong read on Currey this year. We’ve played him in the right spots when he’s hit value and that typically comes at 1.5-mile tracks. He grabbed Top 20 finishes at Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, and finished 18th at Kansas last week. If he can get another finish in 18th or 19th we’re actually looking at 6X value with Currey. The starting spot may push some people away from him but we should mix him into some builds.

Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,000; Starting P21) I don’t particularly love the starting spot, but we can jump on exposure here. He actually started 21st here over the summer and finished 12th and got a top ten here last Fall. I can’t quite figure it out but he’s been very good at Texas in his last two runs. He only needs to move up one spot and finish 20th for 5X value. That’s really good for a guy who has showcased Top 15 potential at this track.

Other Drivers To Consider: I’m not going heavy with exposure to drivers in this section. But I’ll throw them into a couple builds. Austin Hill is in play. He’s cheaper than Timmy Hill and has less PD upside, but he looked solid last week at Kansas. As far as Timmy is concerned you’re basically plugging him in if you think he’s got some mojo following the announcement that his wife is pregnant. I like the price tag on Myatt Snider, but I had a bigger man crush on him earlier in the year. He has the upside to finish in the Top 12-15 though. Kyle Weatherman is the opposite of Bayley Currey for me. I never get Weatherman right. Weatherman’s price is fantastic and he’s starting dead last so there’s no negative PD here. I’m actually throwing him in four of my 20 builds (as it stands now), but I may lower my ownership closer to lock because he’s never been a driver I get right.

DraftKings Example Lineups

The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

Cash Game Example

1. Austin Cindric

2. Anthony Alfredo

3. Michael Annett

     a. Chase Briscoe (Pivot)

4. Myatt Snider

     a. Kyle Weatherman (Pivot)

5. BJ McLeod

     a. Bayley Currey (Pivot)

6. Jesse Little

It might be worth mentioning I’m not playing Cash games this week. I really couldn’t make a lineup that I loved. The build without pivots is the one I prefer for Cash games.

GPP Example

1. Austin Cindric

2. Noah Gragson

     a. Justin Allgaier (Pivot)

3. Anthony Alfredo

     a. Riley Herbst (Pivot)

4. Myatt Snider

     a. Austin Hill (Pivot)

5. Jesse Little

     a. Colby Howard (Pivot)

6. Jeffrey Earnhardt