Without the Trucks this weekend I feel like I can give my undivided attention to the Xfinity race at the Charlotte Roval Saturday afternoon. I love road courses and we have some solid road ringers in this field. I am approaching this with a slightly tighter driver pool but I’ll still aim to break down 16-17 drivers for you all. Now I need to re-iterate I will not be in the chat up until lock. I will be on around 4:00pm ET, but I have a commitment that will keep me away from my computer until about 3:30pmET, which is when the race starts.

So here are the details, if you have never seen a Roval race be sure to check out the Track Breakdown from Matt Selz as he goes over the layout, turns, chicane, etc. And if you want an even quicker read on the track, just know that the infield is shaped like E.T.’s head:

 

Now Matt and I discussed on the NASCAR DFS podcast that we can still account for laps led. However, that applies mostly to the Cup race since it’ll be 109 laps. The Xfinity series race on Saturday will only have 67 laps (Stages: 20-20-27) with no competition caution. So, we only have 50.25 dominator points to work with. We’ll still target those points especially since the cream should rise to the top in this race. But position differential is mostly what we want to build around in this race as most guys hitting value will be moving up through the field. Now we are expecting some rain on Saturday for this race. Teams do have two sets of rain tires in the event that they have to run on a wet track so keep in mind we may see a delay, which could mean that DraftKings does some shady business and pushes the lock time for the slate back.

Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,500; Starting P22) Dinger is a road ringer and he simply cannot be avoided at this price tag and starting spot. He won this race last year starting fifth and he led 20 laps in that race. This year he’s a strong candidate to potentially win again. He finished fourth at the Indy Road Course race on the 4th of July in what had an incredible finish and he finished third at Mid-Ohio last year. He was also the runner-up at Road America in August. He’s an easy play in both Cash and GPP’s but be prepared for him to be over 80% owned in Cash contests. He’s just that much of a lock.

Austin Cindric ($11,000; Starting P11) Cindric is a very good road racer, similar to Allmendinger. Cindric dominated the Daytona road course as he started on the pole, led 20+ laps, and went on to win the race. In two races at Mid-Ohio he’s won and finished second. At the Roval he has back-to-back third place finishes, and he came in fifth at the Indy Road Course after he was screwed out of the lead on a restart violation. But it’s still impressive that he piloted the car to a Top Five finish following the penalty. But he rebounded by winning at Road America this past August. He and Allmendinger are the chalk this week as the most talented drivers on road courses.

Chase Briscoe ($10,400; Starting P8) Briscoe won the inaugural Xfinity race on the Indy Road Course and he won the 2018 race at the Roval as well. He finished third at Road America in August so he has the pedigree to get to the front. And he’s starting ahead of Austin Cindric so he has the easier path to the dominator points which are few and far between in this race. I don’t hate Briscoe in Cash games either. He could carry less ownership than Cindric, which isn’t an awful leverage play.

Kaz Grala ($10,100; Starting P12) I was a little stunned RCR didn’t go with Grala in the 21-car for the race at the Indy Road Course. Grala is a very good road course driver and the secret might be out on him at this point. Two years ago at the Roval he started 14th and finished eighth. In his last two Road America races he has a pair of Top Five finishes. More recently he logged a pair of Top Ten finishes at Richmond, so everyone’s aware of how good of a driver he is. He offers some PD upside and could get another Top Five finish on a road course this weekend.

Noah Gragson ($9,800; Starting P1) Without a competition caution, Gragson might carry more ownership in GPP’s which is perfectly fine. With all the accolades of Allmendinger, Briscoe, and Cindric, Gragson is easily in play for GPP’s. He’s a risky Cash play, but with so much Cash game chalk you might need to take a risk to differentiate your Cash build. I don’t know if I have the brass to go that route, but Gragson’s a fine play all around. He finished third at the Daytona Road Course, third at the Indy Road Course, and sixth at Road America. The benefit of being the polesitter should aid him on Saturday.

Harrison Burton ($8,900; Starting P9) Considering I’m not keen on the starting spots and price tags for Haley, Hemric, Chastain, and Jones I’ll take a couple GPP stabs at Burton this week. He doesn’t necessarily need to get dominator points to return value. Simply a Top Five finish could get him close to that 5X value we covet, but we’ll soften our expectations on “value” this week for a road course.

Jeremy Clements ($8,500; Starting P18) Clements is actually a pretty solid road racer. He had that stunning win at Road America back in 2017, has plenty of Top 15 finishes at Watkins Glen, finished 13th at Indy’s Road Course and sixth at Daytona’s Road Course earlier this season. He finished 11th at the Roval a year ago and a Top 10 finish would be sufficient value.

Preston Pardus ($8,300; Starting P30) Pardus has five races under his belt at the Xfinity level and it’s been a mixed bag. The price tag is tough, but a Top 16-17 finish from him is what we’re looking for in terms of a floor. He didn’t perform well here a year ago, but this year at Indy he started 19th and finished tenth, and then at Road America he started 37th and finished eighth. There’s upside here and he’ll likely be a popular play in Cash games. But he’s a fine play in all contest formats.

Michael Annett ($8,000; Starting P14) Once again we get Annett at a nice price tag and a great starting spot. In terms of road courses, he’s a mixed bag. But he’s pretty good at Road America and got a Top Ten there in August, preceded by a Top Ten at Indy’s Road Course. I’ve noted in previous playbooks how he typically finishes between seventh and ninth and if he can yield another similar result then he’ll simply hit 5X value by finishing ninth. If he finishes seventh then he’ll get you 5.5X value.

Alex Labbe ($7,700; Starting P16) Labbe’s actually a very good road racer who probably doesn’t get enough credit as one. At Indy he started P22 and finished eighth and he finished sixth here a year ago. Additionally, he has a Top Ten finished at Mid-Ohio and a pair of Top 16 finishes at Road America with positive PD in both races. Given his ability to move up at road courses, he could finish in the Top 12 or Top 10 and return sufficient value. But he’s subtly the kind of driver that could be in the optimal lineup.

Jade Buford ($7,400; Starting P24) Buford has raced in the three Xfinity road course races this year and he’s finished in the Top 20 in all three. He’s a nice mid-range play especially if he can finish inside the Top 20 once again. He will need a Top 15 finish to really return value and help you take down a GPP. He’s a pretty good play in Cash games as well, but he’s more suited for GPP contests this week.

Josh Bilicki ($7,000; Starting P32) Bilicki is another driver in this field whose best performances come at road courses. Aside from the good finishes, he’s flashed fantastic position differential at each course as well. At Indy he started 36th and finished 23rd. At Road America he started 30th and finished 17th, and then at Daytona’s Road Course he started 19th and finished 12th. Another Top 20 finish will get 5X value with all the PD upside he possesses. The Roval has been a challenge for him though. He’s finished 26th and 24th the last two races here so do proceed with a little caution. You don’t necessarily need to lock and load him in Cash games, but he’s been great this year on road courses.

Brett Moffitt ($6,700; Starting P19) It was a tossup between Moffit and Brown here. I actually really like Brown as a GPP play with very low ownership based on his starting spot, so while he won’t make the Playbook, do know that I’m still getting exposure in GPP’s. But Moffitt earned the Playbook mention over Brown due to more PD upside at only $200 more. Moffitt’s had his up’s and down’s at the Xfinity level. But at Vegas just two weeks ago, he was $8,800 and now he’s down to $6,700 with some PD on his side. A Top 15 will return 5X value, but Moffitt has talent and boasts Top 10-to-12 upside. Don’t forget about Brown either, but Moffitt is in a nice spot at this cheap price tag.

Kyle Weatherman ($6,100; Starting P35) I’ve whiffed on Weatherman a couple times this year, but I’ll definitely be sure to get exposure this week for a road course. At Indy he started 27th and finished 15th. At Daytona he started 26th and finished 17th. At Road America he started 32nd and finished 21st. So he’s flashing positive position differential at these tracks. The price tag is a bit higher than Little or Leicht so he may not come with as much ownership, but he has an easy path to hitting value similar to the next two cheap punts.

Jesse Little ($5,400; Starting P37) The more recent results for Little haven’t been great by any means, but we cannot ignore the starting spot and price tag. He’s not an easy Cash play, but he can only lose one spot in position differential since Cody Ware is the only driver starting behind him. Little’s in his first season at the Xfinity level and he managed a pair of Top 20 finishes at the Indy and Daytona Road Courses. However, let’s not forget how he screwed us at Road America when he got stuck in the gravel trap, then he wrecked out later on. He just needs to finish 27th for 5X value. We’ll take that floor especially from a driver who has Top 20-25 upside for more value.

Stephen Leicht ($4,600; Starting P28) We never make an effort to play Stephen Leicht unless it’s at Daytona or on a road course. Last year at the Roval he started 26th and finished 19th. At the Indy Road Course he started 28th and finished 21st. These aren’t groundbreaking results by any means but considering the price tag he doesn’t need to do very much to help you return value. A Top 24 finish is an easy 5X return for Leicht. But the upside for a Top 20 makes him an easy cheap punt this weekend.

Example Lineups

The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

DraftKings Cash

1. A.J. Allmendinger

2. Chase Briscoe

     a. Austin Cindric (Pivot)

3. Jeremy Clements

     a. Preston Pardus (Pivot)

4. Alex Labbe

5. Kyle Weatherman

6. Jesse Little

 

DraftKings GPP

1. A.J. Allmendinger

2. Austin Cindric

     a. Noah Gragson (Pivot)

3. Josh Bilicki

     a. Jesse Little (Pivot)

4. Kyle Weatherman

     a. Brandon Brown (Pivot)

5. Brett Moffitt

6. Alex Labbe

     a. Kaz Grala (Pivot)

*Don’t feel like you need to spend every dollar in your budget for this race. You can easily build a GPP lineup leaving $1,000-$2,000 on the table*