I’m not going to lie, this Xfinity race is going to be exciting. Denny Hamlin is competing and he’s $16,000. Normally when we have a driver priced at that level you end up playing similar builds to the field because you’re forced to play similar drivers. But the pricing is really interesting this week for a lot of different drivers and you can play a variety of Denny Hamlin lineups. But we’re back at Darlington for the second time this year. If you remember the first race back in May, it was an exciting finish that saw Chase Briscoe go toe-to-toe and bump Kyle Busch down the backstretch for an emotional win for him and his family.

If you haven’t checked out Selz’s Track Breakdown yet, give it a peak. It caters to the Cup race, but you get a sense of the kind of track we’re dealing with. This is the Lady in Black. Darlington is a pretty tough track and it can wear down tires. It does present some opportunities for dominator points this weekend. The stages for this race will be 45-45-57 with a competition caution around Lap 15. So we have over 100 dominator points available for this race with a lot of great value on this slate.

Before I dive into the Driver Pool I want to throw this one little bit of information out there and it comes courtesy of our very own NASCAR sub, BigDay4Me. I’m going to list track history here, as I normally do, but it’s worth mentioning previous history carries less weight this year. Without practice or qualifying, and the opportunity for team’s to make adjustments to the cars, we’re flying a little blind. I got burned last week by Johnny Sauter at Gateway because he never finished worse than fourth there, and then he went out and had mechanical issues. So let’s still identify the right PD plays, and guys who have run well previously, but remain objective as to what we’ve seen from drivers without practice.

 

Driver Pool

Denny Hamlin ($16,000; Starting P37) He needs 80 points for 5X value, and yes he can do it with ease. He won here at the Cup level in May after finishing fifth in the first Darlington race. The 54-car has been great this year when Kyle Busch has been behind the wheel and Hamlin’s easily been a better racer than Busch in 2020. He’s lightyears ahead of the field and he should easily be in the Top 15 by the competition caution and he’ll be in the Top 5 by the end of the first stage. There is still the unknown factor that he could get caught up in a wreck or that maybe he incurs a pit road penalty late in the race. The field will be all over him. If building ten lineups you probably want Hamlin in at least five of them. I’m aiming for about 35-40% exposure to him across my 30-40 builds. It’s still a healthy amount but should still be lighter than the field. He’s an easy lock in both formats.

Austin Cindric ($10,700; Starting P4) He has zero wins in the last three races so clearly this guy sucks. Hopefully you’re capable of picking up on sarcasm through the written word. His average finish of 18.0 is brought down by an accident he got into two years ago. But make no mistake, he’s still pretty good at Darlington. He finished tenth here a year ago and fourth back in May. He’s a far better driver now and the car has been phenomenal. He’s also still hungry for wins. He and Briscoe have been the equivalent of Harvick and Hamlin for the Xfinity series this year. The laps led may be hard to come by since Chase Briscoe is starting in front of him.

Justin Allgaier ($10,400; Starting P16) Allgaier has an average finish of 8.7 at Darlington with five top tens in his last six races. He also finished third with 17 fastest laps in the Spring race as well. Allgaier is a nice GPP pivot off Hamlin while he still offers PD upside. With another Top Five finish and some fastest laps he can easily return 5X value.

Chase Briscoe ($10,000; Starting P2) We can’t talk Darlington without hyping up the guy who won here back in May. Briscoe started 11th and finished first while leading 45 laps with 15 fastest laps. It was an emotional win that brought him to a knee when he climbed out of the car. If you haven’t seen the ending of that race, check it out here. It’s definitely worth two minutes of your time. He has a little momentum coming into this week with a win at Dover a couple weeks ago and a third-place finish at Daytona last weekend. He’s a very good candidate to lead laps on Saturday.

Harrison Burton ($9,700; Starting P3) For what it’s worth, I STILL REALLY LIKE THE SPEED! He hasn’t been too impressive the last couple weeks. He should’ve had a better performance at Dover, but a choose cone violation and speeding on pit road were awful for his overall performance. He had a pedestrian performance at the first Darlington race, but ownership will be light on him. I love him as a contrarian GPP play. A lot of people may be off him because he’s starting near Cindric and Briscoe. But I like the speed we’ve seen from the 20-car. I’m not going crazy with exposure, but there is plenty of upside with Burton this week in GPP’s.

Daniel Hemric ($9,200; Starting P15) Hemric’s flying under the radar this week. He isn’t a full-time driver for JR Motorsports as he’s splitting duties with Jeb Burton. Hemric’s been the victim of some bad luck lately, but this is a great spot to target him and the price tag is pretty cheap. Back in May he started 23rd and finished sixth here and he has PD upside this week. He’s mostly a GPP target this week, but he has Top 5 upside.

Noah Gragson ($8,800; Starting P14) Gragson will likely be the second-highest owned driver behind Denny Hamlin. He was over $10,000 for both Dover races two weeks ago with worse PD upside. $8,800 is far too cheap for a guy who is routinely over $10K. So the PD and price tag will put a lot of people on Gragson this week. There’s also some narrative here. I won’t dive into it too much because it’s not my place, but Gragson has an emotional narrative this week that will give him plenty of motivation to go out there and deliver a great performance for his family. He’s my favorite play on the slate next to Hamlin.

Brett Moffitt ($8,700; Starting P21) Moffitt started in a similar spot here back in May (P22) and finished 11th. A similar result would be 5X value, but keep in mind that race is his only previous Darlington experience at the Xfinity level. He’s still been getting the most out of his ride when he’s run at this level. He traditionally carries some risk because he normally starts higher, but the starting spot this week favors him.

Ross Chastain ($8,600; Starting P5) Another price tag that’s a real head scratcher. Chastain looked great at Dover a couple weeks ago and followed it up with an impressive performance at Daytona last weekend. However, he still doesn’t have a win this year. He seemingly has a playoff spot locked up without one, but you know he’s looking to smash some watermelons in Victory Lane. Chastain, like Gragson, is priced way down this week. Gragson’s the better play because he carries PD, but Ross is better than this price tag. It’s worth mentioning he doesn’t have the greatest history at Darlington so exposure to him should be restricted to GPP’s. But he will be aggressive in an effort to get a win. His best career finish at Darlington was back in May where he finished eighth.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300; Starting P11) He’s starting awfully high, but prior to Daytona he had five straight Top 14 finishes. He became really good at basically holding his position. While he’s starting high this week, he finished 14th here a year ago and seventh back in May. He does need to gain a few spots to return value, but he’s another driver on the cusp of the playoff line. He’s safer than most, but still needs to collect the solid finishes to solidify the playoff spot.

Brandon Brown ($7,000; Starting P17) Brown is holding on to the final playoff spot at the moment so he needs solid performance to hold that spot. In four races at Darlington he’s finished three of them finishing in the Top 20 in each. However, at this price tag you want more than just a Top 20. He finished 13th here back in May and if I had to make a prediction, I say he finishes 11th on Saturday. That would be 39 points and if he can get a couple fast laps he could pass 40 points. He’s an okay play in both formats, but a 13th-place finish gets him 5X value at the minimum.

Austin Hill ($6,900; Starting P26) Austin Hill steps in for Timmy Hill in the 61-car as the “nice” play of the week for Xfinity. This car has been decent and it’s helped Timmy Hill to a few positive results. But this will be Austin’s fourth Xfinity race this year, and just the second without practice. He’s a regular play each week in the Truck series because he’s one of the best drivers in that field. But the Xfinity cars are a different breed. But his price tag is great and he has PD upside here. I don’t think he finishes in the Top 12, but a Top 15 isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. A Top 20 finish is more realistic if he can avoid the wrecks.

Joe Graf Jr. ($6,700; Starting P28) I know we’re taking previous history with a grain of salt, but back in May, in his only Darlington race, Graf started 36th and finished 19th. That’s without practice so it bares obvious comparison to what we’ll see on Saturday. Prior to Daytona, he had been a relatively vanilla driver over his last few races. He wasn’t generating a ton of PD and was holding his starting spot for the most part. He’ll need a similar run to his May performance, which makes him mostly a GPP play.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,700; Starting P31) Admittedly, I haven’t had the best read on Kyle Weatherman. However, he’s cheap and the starting spot is helpful. If he can get a few fastest laps and finish 24th he can get close to 5X value. He even has the pedigree to get a Top 20 finish, but he hasn’t looked great as of late. He struggled at Dover and had a suspension issue in the second race at the monster mile. He’s strictly a GPP play. I don’t trust him enough in Cash games. He’s never raced at Darlington and it’s a tough track for inexperienced drivers.

Josh Williams ($5,200; Starting P9) A lot of folks may brush Williams aside because he’s starting ninth. However, he’s still chasing a playoff spot as he’s 15th in points right now. He probably needs a win to actually get into the playoffs but he has a shot making it via points. And he’s dirt cheap this week. He’s normally $1,500-$2,000 more on DraftKings and if that were the case, I wouldn’t play him. But he’s so cheap and he finished 16th here in May. Now he probably goes backward, but his price tag is so friendly that he could actually finish 14th, and lose five spots, while still delivering close to 5X value.

BJ McLeod ($5,100; Starting P27) I wasn’t even going to mention McLeod until I looked at his performances here. Now he has had some bad luck lately and finished outside the Top 30 in a few previous races, so be aware that there’s inherent risk with McLeod. However, Darlington is one of his better tracks in his career. He started 13th back in May which is ridiculously high, but still finished 15th without practice. Last summer he started 23rd and finished 19th. And previously he’s shown that he can move up four-to-six spots per race. I think he can move up five spots and finish 22nd which would return some value, but if McLeod flexes on the Lady in Black he could be a gem for GPP’s. I'm OFF McLeod today. He's not in his normal ride since Ryan Vargas is in his usual car. Since pivoting off McLeod I'm putting my McLeod shares toward Williams (if I can fit him in), TJM, Starr, and Dexter Bean who is in the 90-car which normally goes to Alex Labbe. Bean could still Start & Park. There are rumors going around that despite the look of a sponsor, they may just park it after 40 laps so there's risk with Bean.

Tommy Joe Martins ($4,900; Starting P19) This is just stupid pricing. DraftKings is basically saying “Play Hamlin if you must, but you have to play TJM too,” and you know what? That’s fine. Coming into Darlington, in six of his last seven races he’s finished 18th or better. He’s coming into the Egg with back-to-back Top 15 finishes. The argument against TJM would be the mechanical issues he’s known to have as well as the resume here. But screw it, he’s far too cheap for a guy who should be over $6K. If he holds his spot he’ll return 5X value. Hopefully he can move up a couple and return more value.

David Starr ($4,600; Starting P22) You can’t get any cheaper than David Starr on Sunday. Starr has had a mixed bag of results over his last four races. He had a very strong showing at Texas where he finished 13th and he finished 20th at the second Dover race. You’re not expecting the biggest results from Starr if you throw him into some lineups. Realistically you just want him to hold the starting spot, but he’s shown that he can move up a few spots as well. If he moves up three spots and finished 19th then he’ll yield 6X value. Don’t expect the world, but he can’t kill you too much at the price tag assuming he lets you load up on studs.

 

Example Lineups

Note: The EXAMPLE lineups are meant to show different roster constructions that are made with drivers from the Playbook. These are not meant to be plugged and played.

DraftKings Cash Example

1. Denny Hamlin ($16,000)

2. Noah Gragson ($8,800)

     a. Justin Allgaier ($10,400) - Pivot

3. Brandon Brown ($7,000)

4. Austin Hill ($6,900)

5. Joe Graf Jr. ($6,700)

     a. Dexter Bean* ($5,700) - Pivot

6. David Starr ($4,600)

 

Denny Hamlin GPP Example

1. Denny Hamlin ($16,000)

2. Austin Cindric ($10,700)

     a.Noah Gragson ($8,800) - Pivot

3. Josh Williams ($5,200)

4. Tommy Joe Martins ($4,900)

     a. Dexter Bean* ($4,700) - Pivot

5. Austin Hill ($6,900)

6. Kyle Weatherman ($5,700)

     a. Myatt Snider ($8,400) - Pivot

 

Non-Denny Hamlin GPP Example

1. Austin Cindric ($10,700)

     a. Justin Allgaier ($10,400) - Pivot

2. Noah Gragson ($8,800)

     a. Chase Briscoe ($10,000) - Pivot

3. Daniel Hemric ($9,200)

4. Brandon Brown ($7,000)

5. Tommy Joe Martins ($4,900)

     a. Dexter Bean* ($4,700) - Pivot

6. Brett Moffitt ($8,700)

*Can also pivot to David Starr if worried about too much exposure to Bean. Be aware that Bean could S&P.