Here we are for a much better DFS slate for the Xfinity road course from Road America in Wisconsin. I played the Truck series race light last night and took a $0.50 loss. Oh darn. I’m playing this one much heavier since it’s easier to read and the contests, while not as luxurious as they have been lately, are still better than the Truck series last night. Here’s a bit of a preview of what to expect from Road America on Saturday:

 

This is a long course. We only have 45 laps because each lap is four miles. I’m surprised they didn’t make this a 50-lap race for 200 miles, but these are creatures of habit I suppose. The stages are broken up into 14-15-16 lap intervals. I’ll find out Saturday morning if there’s competition caution, given the shorter nature of the stages I’d be surprised if there was a comp. caution, but these aren’t exactly ideal racing conditions. I didn’t have time to update the tables for Road America, but for reference Here is a Link to the Track Breakdown that was used for Indianapolis that broke down the results of the last few road course races and I’ll include the Loop Data results from Indianapolis below as well:

DriverStartMid RaceFinishGreen Flag PassesQuality PassesPct. Quality PassesFastest LapTop 15 LapsPct. Top 15 LapsLaps LedTotal LapsDRIVER RATING
Chase Briscoe1211221777.313621003062146.4
Justin Haley1152342985.3462100062118.2
Noah Gragson823493469.425995.2062110.9
A.J. Allmendinger3094612845.935182.3262104.8
Austin Cindric10165562544.6155487.12162127.1
Ross Chastain966262284.605791.9062103.3
Justin Allgaier53732247545893.5262115.6
Alex Labbe22128402767.505995.206294.2
Michael Annett2149191368.405182.306283
Preston Pardus19171033515.202438.726278.3
Brandon Brown241811431023.302032.306275.2
Brandon Gdovic38151242716.702235.506274.2
Jeremy Clements21111340225505283.906285.5
Jade Buford1726143937.701016.106265.8
Kyle Weatherman2720153425.91132106269.3
Myatt Snider2671634175003962.906277
Ryan Sieg41317241145.803658.126274.7
Jesse Little132418400000006256.3
Timmy Hill34271933515.20914.506257.2
Anthony Alfredo72220401127.53182906274.3
Stephen Leicht283021330000006249.3
Josh Williams20192236513.90711.306258.5
Josh Bilicki3621234624.301016.106258.7
Mike Wallace142324340000006246.7
Harrison Burton61025191368.405487.106278.7
Joe Graf, Jr.2929262514023.206243.8
Chad Finchum373427160010006234.3
Kody Vanderwal31282819210.5034.906137.2
B.J. McLeod1532291400011.606131.5
Matt Mills3331302700034.906135.5
Jeb Burton1333190011423.316047.5
Vinnie Miller35353290000006027.5
Riley Herbst23433361541.704477.205774.2
Bayley Currey323634190000005437.8
Tommy Joe Martins252535290001205144.8
Brett Moffitt16373612216.7036.804434.3
Brandon Jones38373310003191.223478
Jeffrey Earnhardt18383842500111.10932

I’m playing both Cash and GPP’s for this race. Last night I only played GPP’s and just about broke even. I wasn’t fond of the contests last night and while the Xfinity lineups are a little better, it’s clear the DFS lobbies for NASCAR are taking a bit of a hit with the return of most sports. My strategy is mostly focusing on position differential. With only 45 laps that means we have 33.75 dominator points available and that’s being generous because they don’t reward for fastest laps on cautions. So for all builds I’m focusing on finding five drivers for position differential and one driver to collect the dominator points. We will see a lot of chalk in this race with similar lineups so identifying the best PD plays will be crucial. We also won’t see a ton of drivers return the ideal 5X-6X value we like to see. With fewer laps and no practice the prices are inflated and we may not see as much value on this slate. Be on the lookout for overlay with the Xfinity race. I didn’t bite on the overlay for the Truck series but there was a healthy amount of it so take advantage if it’s there for this race.

 

Driver Pool

AJ Allmendinger ($12,000; Starting P33) Allmendinger is the ultimate chalk on Saturday. Aside from the obvious position differential he’s a fantastic road course racer. In his last race at Indianapolis he started 30th and finished fourth in a fantastic ending to the inaugural race on the Indy road course. I guess the one thing going against him is the fact that Indy was his last race as he hasn’t competed since. But with the position differential he carries 60+ point upside in the 16-car for Kaulig Racing and the Kaulig cars have been great this year. He’ll be 90% owned in Cash games and probably 40-50% owned in GPP’s.

Austin Cindric ($11,000; Starting P2) I'm currently only at 10% ownership of Cindric. He's a solid candidate to win the race but there are only about 30 dominator points available so his upside is capped a little bit. He needs to win and most of the laps and get about 15 fastest laps to really increase his ceiling. I'm playing him light because it's a low ceiling today. He’s a great road course racer despite an average finish at Road America of 18.33. He finished second here a year ago, he won at Mid-Ohio last year, has finished third (twice) at the Roval, and arguably could’ve won at Indianapolis last month. Ownership will be high but this is chalk we can eat.

Justin Allgaier ($10,600; Starting P12) Allgaier has had speed lately and he isn’t an awful road ringer. He has six straight Top 11 finishes at Road America and he won here two years ago. He looked fine a month ago at Indy and has a strong history at Watkins Glen. Without practice he’s a reliable play given his experience on the course and he has PD upside starting P12. He doesn’t have the greatest luck, but this is a great spot to get exposure to him.

Chase Briscoe ($10,300; Starting P7) $10,300 actually seems cheap for Briscoe. He’s normally priced over $11,000 and he won at Indy last month. He finished seventh and sixth a year ago at Road America and the Roval, but he does have a win under his belt at Watkins Glen. He’s a good candidate to win and keep in mind he’s still chasing that lofty goal of eight wins in a year. Ownership could be a little softer than normal as well.

Noah Gragson ($10,000; Starting P9) Gragson’s always in play. It seems like he’s cooled off since the double-header at Miami, but he finished third at Indianapolis and he finished fourth at Road America last year. He also finished in the Top Five at Mid-Ohio and the Roval so he’s no stranger to success on road courses. But the momentum isn’t on his side. It’s still wise to get a little exposure in GPP’s. He’s on a bit of a cold streak, but that may drive ownership down a little bit since most of the field will pay up for Cindric and Allmendinger.

Ross Chastain ($9,500; Starting P11) Chastain’s at a slight discount this week with some PD, similar to Allgaier. He didn’t race here last year but he finished seventh here back in 2018 and he finished sixth at Indianapolis a month ago. He normally leans on dominator points to help him return value, which he won’t have at his disposal this afternoon, but this is still another spot where we can get exposure to the Watermelon Man.

Justin Haley ($9,300; Starting P4) I’m praying ownership is light on Haley this week because he’s coming into Road America with five straight Top Ten finishes and he was the runner-up a month ago at Indy. He finished sixth at Road America a year ago and he got a Top Ten finish at Mid-Ohio. He’s strictly a GPP play that could steal a win here. His car has been fast and he can find his way to the front in stage three. I don’t expect a ton of ownership and he’s one of my favorite GPP plays tomorrow.

Andy Lally ($9,100; Starting P23) This is a steep price to pay for a driver making their 2020 debut, but Lally is a road course specialist. In three races at Road America (2014, 2015, and 2018) he’s never finished worse than 15th and he’s performed well at Mid-Ohio as well. I am concerned about the lack of practice as well as the price tag. I’ll throw Lally into a few GPP lineups, but I’m trying to be a little disciplined this week as there is risk with this Matty D lookalike.

Harrison Burton ($9,000; Starting P3) Let’s not lose sight of the speed Burton has showcased the last few races. He has back-to-back Top 5 finishes and he’s returned at least 50 points on DraftKings in three straight races. Is the experience there on road courses? Hardly. He had a disappointing finish at Indy and finished 13th at the Roval last year. The car has looked great the last few races and if playing him in GPP’s you’re banking on the speed. Road courses are a different animal and he doesn’t have a ton of experience on these tracks. It’s possible he gets pushed around and out of the way to get passed.

Jeremy Clements ($8,600; Starting P18) Clements is a really strong road racer. We normally target for him PD, especially on road courses, but he actually won here back in 2017 which was huge for his team. He finished 13th at Indy a month ago and finished 11th at the Roval last year as well. He has three straight finishes in the Top 13 at Road America including the previously-mentioned win three years ago. The price tag and PD make him an incredibly alluring play so be sure to get your share of him. He’s viable in Cash and GPP contests.

Kaz Grala ($8,200; Starting P6) I feel it’s necessary to include Grala because he is a good road ringer. Last year he piloted the 21-car for RCR to a Top 5 finish at Road America, and the year before he finished 11th. He finished eighth at the Roval in 2018 so the pedigree is there for him to do well. He’s definitely a good play if building a bunch of GPP lineups. He made his 2020 debut two weeks ago at Kansas and I’m weary of his performance this weekend with no practice. But he clearly likes this course. The price tag is also tough to swallow as it’s more likely he gets passed and I don’t see him getting passed Cindric for the lead, but a Top 5 finish can return 5X value.

Myatt Snider ($8,000; Starting P29) I don’t hate the starting spot. I don’t hate the driver. I don’t hate the price. I do, however, hate the equipment. And he’s a good enough driver where he’s made the most out of it. He started 26th at Indy and finished 16th. The starting spot and price are great for him to return value. He’ll need to move up 12 spots to get close to 5X value. He will likely be popular in GPP’s because of the upside, but with only 45 laps he’ll need some help to drastically move up at this track.

Preston Pardus ($7,500; Starting P37) This is also some decent chalk to eat as he ripped off basically 9X value a month ago at Indy. He can’t register any negative PD since he’s starting at the very back and the price makes him playable in Cash and GPP formats. He ran Road America last year and finished 36th with a suspension issue, but the starting spot and price tag are too good to pass up for someone who just got a Top 10 last month at a road course. He’ll need to place in the Top 22 for 5X value, but that’s within reach although the amount of laps may not be on his side.

Josh Bilicki ($6,500; Starting P30) Bilicki should be chalk, but I’m curious to see what his ownership will settle at. A month ago at Indy he started 36th and finished 23rd to return over 5X value. A Top 20 finish will return value on this slate. He finished 20th a year ago at Road American after starting 16th and in 2017 he finished 12th here. He also has a couple Top 20 finishes at Mid-Ohio so there’s some intrigue with Bilicki.

Jade Buford ($6,300; Starting P19) Buford was a solid play a month ago at Indianapolis and he’s cheaper with better PD this time around. Don’t go crazy with exposure here as drivers tend to struggle with Road America on their first try and he isn’t getting practice. I still think he’s a viable GPP play on Saturday though. He only needs to move up a few spots for 5X value.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,000; Starting P36) DraftKings must be drunk based on the pricing of Thomas Joseph this week. He can’t really go backward from here and he has some momentum with back-to-back Top 20 finishes coming into this week. He isn’t the greatest road ringer, but he logged a Top 25 finish here a year ago. Another Top 25 finish would return 5X value, if he can somehow finish 19th then that’s 7X value and that’s hard to ignore. He’s a risk with bad luck and sub-par equipment, but there’s some upside as long as he finishes the race.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,700; Starting P32) Weatherman’s a good PD target that we need to seek out on Saturday. He got a Top 15 finish at Indy last month and has been a nice GPP play at times over the past few races. The price tag and starting spot make him a popular play especially coming off his run at Indianapolis. He only needs to finish in the Top 24 to return the value we’re looking for, but he has a shot at more than that. He could be chalky in Cash games, in which case I might look elsewhere because playing Allmendinger and Co. require playing the same cheap guys as well.

Jesse Little ($4,700; Starting P14) I can feel the eyerolls of some of you as you read this section. Yes, I’m going back to Jesse Little this weekend and I’m really just hoping he can hold his starting position for this race. He’s cheap and can afford to go backward, but with a lack of laps on this track I’m hoping he can avoid a disaster and just not fall outside the Top 18. At the same price tag for Indy he returned 21 DraftKings points and lost five spots in PD. That’s not awful, but I’m hoping he can finish in the Top 15 as a GPP play on Saturday.

Stephen Leicht ($4,600; Starting P15) This is a guy we normally avoid because he tends to S&P, but with Timmy Hill in Michigan for the Cup race(s), Leicht gets the luxury of the 61-car. The starting spot is high so he isn’t a safe Cash game play, but he’s a decent GPP play since he’s better on road courses than your traditional “left turns only” track. Last month he started 28th and finished 21st at Indy. He has the luxury of losing three spots and finishing 18th and he can still return 5X value, but there’s more upside for him if he can simply hold the starting position in better equipment than he’s used to on Saturday.

 

Example Lineups

Note: These are EXAMPLE lineups showing different roster construction. These are not meant to be plugged in and simply played.

DraftKings Cash

1.A.J. Allmendinger ($12,000)

2.Ross Chastain ($9,500)

     a.Justin Allgaier ($10,600 – Pivot)

3.Kyle Weatherman ($5,700)

     a.Myatt Snider ($8,000 – Pivot)

4.Alex Labbe ($8,800)

     a.Tommy Joe Martins ($6,000 – Pivot)

5.Preston Pardus ($7,500)

6.Josh Bilicki ($6,500)

     a.Kyle Weatherman ($5,700 – Pivot)

DraftKings GPP 1

1.A.J. Allmendinger ($12,000)

2.Andy Lally ($9,100)

     a.Justin Allgaier ($10,600 – Pivot)

3.Jeremy Clements ($8,600)

4.Preston Pardus ($7,500)

5.Josh Bilicki ($6,500)

6.Jade Buford ($6,300)

     a.Jesse Little ($4,700 – Pivot)

DraftKings GPP 2

1.A.J. Allmendinger ($12,000)

     a.Austin Cindric ($11,000 – Pivot)

2.Chase Briscoe ($10,300)

     a.Jeremy Clements ($8,600 – Pivot)

3.Harrison Burton ($9,000)

     a.Andy Lally ($9,100 – Pivot)

4.Stephen Leicht ($4,600)

     a.Kyle Weatherman ($5,700 – Pivot)

5.Tommy Joe Martins ($6,000)

     a.Myatt Snider ($8,000 – Pivot)

6.Preston Pardus ($7,500)