NASCAR DFS: Shady Rays 200 Playbook & Example Lineups

All things considered I thought last week’s Xfinity race at Indianapolis went pretty well. I made a profit and then lost a bunch of it in the Cup race. But we’ve got TWO Xfinity races this week and they fall on Thursday and Friday night so they’re a little earlier than normal. While the Cup series has only been racing at Kentucky since 2011, the Xfinity series has been racing here since 2001. From 2013-2017 Xfinity also ran a playoff race here but has since taken it off the playoff schedule. But I’m thankful we get two races at this track this week since I’ve missed the mid-week DFS sweats. Since we have two races this week, this Playbook will primarily focus on plays for Thursday night’s race. Then I’ll wipe the slate clean and do a whole new Playbook for Friday’s race (will not be updating the table though) and will provide a note in this Playbook when the update is complete.

Kentucky is a 1.5-mile Asphalt track. It’s very similar to Chicagoland and Kansas in terms of the surface, the length, the tri-oval shape, and the turns and stretches are banked at similar angles. Because of the similarities in some of the individual driver write-up’s I’ll reference Chicago and Kansas as well. NASCAR isn’t running at Chicagoland this year, but they will be at Kansas in two weeks, so it doesn’t hurt to get an understanding of what to look for at that race as well. 1.5-mile tracks aren’t the flashiest races we’ve ever seen, but for the most part, they’re fairly predictable. Be cautious with your GPP builds. I know we like to find those PD plays, but at this race last year only 19 cars finished Stage 2 on the lead lap, so while this isn’t as small as Bristol or Martinsville, falling off the lead lap early is still a possibility. Here are the results from Xfinity’s four summer races over the last four years:

Chase Briscoe ($11,400; Starting P7) – Briscoe obviously gets the Playbook nod. He’s got momentum with wins in three of his last four races and five total on the year. He ran Kentucky last year for the first time in his career and finished fifth after starting ninth. He has decent results at Chicagoland and he finished third last year at Kansas. He did win at Vegas earlier this year which is a 1.5-mile track but it’s a little bit of a different monster in terms of surface and banking. He’s a lock regardless of where he starts at this point.

Austin Cindric ($10,900; Starting P12) – Back to the well we go. He was my favorite play last week and could’ve possibly run away with the race if he didn’t have the restart penalty. The guy absolutely dominates on road courses so I’ll be all over him once again come August. But I do like him at 1.5-mile tracks. He led a ton of laps at Atlanta a month ago, had a strong showing at Charlotte, finished second at Vegas, etc. He doesn’t have the greatest results at Kentucky and Kansas so if you’re tempering exposure because of those two tracks then that might kill you. Don’t fade him because of that, he’s been good at 1.5-mile tracks this year and has PD on his side this week.

Noah Gragson ($10,600; Starting P1) – Gragson’s an obvious play each and every week. If you look at his Driver Averages profile, he has an AVG Finish of tenth or better at 20 of the 26 tracks he’s raced at. He regularly ran in the Top 10 last year and finished sixth at Kentucky in 2019. He’s had speed every week and while he hasn’t dominated a race lately, he’s potentially due to get a healthy dose of laps led and fastest laps, especially starting on the pole.

Justin Allgaier ($10,300; Starting P10) – Allgaier can at least carry the fact that he’s consistent with five straight Top 10 finishes at Kentucky with some Top 5 results as well. He also has some Top 5 results at Kansas and has two wins at Chicagoland. But mixed in with these solid results are some wrecks and poor finishes, which parallels the season he’s had in 2020. I feel like the ownership will be lower on Thursday than Friday, so this is where I’m going to target him. He finished 7^th here last July and had to drive with a broken visor on his helmet… So that’s a fun fact, I suppose.

Brandon Jones ($9,500; Starting P6) – If you listened to the NASCAR DFS podcast (which will be available Thursday morning), Jones is the contrarian play I didn’t want to leak on the show. I’m really hoping the field is light on Jones this week. I think a lot of casual players (and hopefully other DFS providers) overlook him because three out of his last four races here have resulted in finishes of 30^th or worse. But he won at Kansas last October and he finished 4^th at Chicagoland last June. For whatever reason, Jones has had some bad luck with Kentucky. But even if you go back and watch his last two races here, he’s looked solid prior to Stage 3 meltdowns. Take the 2019 race for example. He started 6^th and on Lap 2 he got a little high with light contact to the wall. That immediately knocked him back to about 15^th. BUT he actually managed to get himself back up to fifth by the end of the first stage. At the beginning of stage two he easily looked like the fastest car in the pack and quickly took over the lead, but an Austin Cindric wreck would force a restart and he lost the lead to Gragson. Over his last two races at Kentucky he’s finished in the Top 6 in Stages 1 and 2. He’s just looked so good running the lower groove at this track that I’m really hoping I’m heavier on him than the field. I’m not saying he goes out and wins the race, but I think he’s a strong contrarian play that could lead some laps. Keep in mind, the Friday race is 200 laps. That’s the normal length for Xfinity races at Kentucky. Thursday night’s contest is 33% shorter so I’m hoping a shorter race works in Jones’ favor. If you’re a betting man, Jones is getting 10-1 odds with some sportsbooks.

Myatt Snider ($9,300; Starting P28) – Snider has made the most out of either car he’s been in. Obviously, we prefer him in the 21-car, but that’s not the case this week. Snider will be the PD chalk for Thursday’s race. In the 93-car he’s starting P28 but we’ve seen him do well and move up through the field in this ride before. I like to think Snider’s experience in the Truck series helps him out for Thursday’s race. He performed well at the three similar tracks in trucks and showed the same ability to navigate his way through the field. It’s a short race so that helps, we just need him to avoid getting lapped if he does struggle to gain PD.

Justin Haley ($9,100; Starting P9) – What’s not to like about the guy? He’s been a really good play this year and he churns out solid results. In his debut last year at these three similar tracks he finished tenth at Kentucky and seventh at both Kansas and Chicagoland and he gained at least four spots in each race. There’s plenty to like about this kid so we’re going back to the well once again.

Jeremy Clements ($8,900; Starting P20) – We’ll chase the PD again with Clements this week because it may be hard to find elsewhere. He has back-to-back Top 10’s at Kansas, six straight Top 20 finishes at Chicago, and two Top 20 finishes at Kentucky and he’s shown he can gain five or six spots per race as well. Without Allmendinger in Thursday’s race I do believe it forces more ownership on Clements, especially in Cash games. I’m not going to fade him completely, but I may limit my exposure to just a couple lineups out of 20 in the hopes that he possibly wrecks or has a mechanical issue.

Jeb Burton ($8,500; Starting P3) – I’m a little pissed that Hemric isn’t in the entry list for the first Kentucky race. The success at Kentucky didn’t carry over to the Cup series last season for Hemric, but there’s no denying that he can run well at this track in Xfinity. In three races here he’s finished second, seventh, and ninth with some laps led and he consistently runs in the Top 10. He has two Top 5 finishes at Chicagoland and led 128 laps in his last effort at Kansas. So, I if he runs the Friday race, he’ll go to the rear for a driver change and everyone will be all over him. Alas, I need to eventually say something about Jeb Burton. His one race at Chicagoland didn’t go well two years ago as he wrecked and finished 34^th. Since 2013, in two races at Kentucky he’s finished 19^th and 8^th while gaining decent PD each race. The 8-car is going to get a good starting spot and while he disappointed last week on Indy’s road course, there’s some contrarian appeal here for Jeb.

Riley Herbst ($8,400; Starting P23) – Since Herbst has fallen out of the Top 12 in owner’s points, Thursday will mark his fourth straight race starting P22 or worse. He did well at Chicago and Kentucky last year and if he can match that Top 12 upside then he’ll approach 5X value. He is a bit of a gamble to hit that point because the price tag is a bit high. He’s an up-and-down kind of driver unfortunately.

Michael Annett ($8,000; Starting P4) – Annett is a weird play this week because he doesn’t carry the greatest AVG Finish at Kentucky, Chicago, or Kansas. From 2013-2018 Annett had just one Top 10 finish in a dozen races at these three tracks. He did have four Top 15’s as well, but overall, the results were rather bland. Then 2019 happened and he finished in the Top 4 at each of the three races so something clicked with the guy. I’d keep exposure limited to just GPP’s since he’s shown the ceiling is pretty high, but the floor isn’t great either.

Brandon Brown ($7,500; Starting P19) – As long as he can finish the race, he can finish in the Top 15 or maybe even the Top 10 and that’s what we’re looking for in our builds for Thursday night’s race. He had moderate success in 2019 at Kentucky and its similar tracks, but if you’re drafting him on Thursday you’re looking for the Top 10 upside that he may provide in a GPP.

Ryan Sieg ($7,200; Starting P8) – Sieg is teetering on falling out of the Top 12 in owner points, which is where we’d like to see him since he’d end up starting 13^th-24^th. We aren’t there yet, but I like him as a GPP play considering most people assume he’s a lock to go backward. He finished in the Top 12 at Kentucky, Kansas, and Chicago last year including a ninth-place finish at Kentucky. He doesn’t have much momentum coming into this race. The lack of practice is crushing him because he’s been hot garbage since the season re-started. He can’t be trusted for Cash games, but he can make a sprinkle of GPP builds this week.

Vinnie Miller ($6,100; Starting P34) – The numbers for Miller at Kentucky won’t wow you, but do note that he’s moved up at least nine spots in each of his two races at this track. At the price tag he’ll need to flash that PD upside once again and pull off his best career performance at this track. Similarly enough, he’s shown that positive PD ability at Kansas and Chicago, but he hasn’t looked good on 1.5-mile tracks so far in 2020. He’s still a GPP play because if he can move up to 24^th he’ll get very close to 5X value and everything after that is gravy.

Colby Howard ($5,700; Starting P21) – Cheap punts are going to be hard to come by for the Thursday race. Howard qualifies as one of those but you will start him knowing that he’s as likely to finish 15^th as he is to finish 34^th. The fact this is a shorter race might play to his advantage so I do like that for him. He finished 15^th at Atlanta, 17^th at Homestead, and 19^th at Bristol. Atlanta’s probably the closest comparison to Kentucky. I’m just hoping he can get some PD and not be a total disaster. The PD at P21 is a little enticing.

Stephen Leicht ($5,300; Starting P29) – Leicht is listed as having a sponsor, the same one he had last week, but back in the 66-car this time. He’s a longshot GPP play and while he’s in the Playbook I’m still not over-the-moon about playing the guy. He does have two Top 10 finishes including a win. The downside is that those results came during the Bush Administration well over a decade ago. He’s in arguably the worst equipment he’s ever driven so there’s significant risk with him in the 66-car, but we all know that. Update: I'm keeping Leicht in the Playbook but there are some rumblings he could S&P. I don't have him in any of my 20 builds for tonight's race either way.

Jesse Little ($5,000; Starting P14) – Little might be my favorite GPP punt this week. Even when he starts high he’s proven that he can go backward and still be of service. Last week he started 13^th and finished 18^th at $4,700 and that was still close to 4.5X value. His price goes up to $5,000 and I’m still in favor of playing him as my favorite cheap punt. The cheap punts are very hard to find on this slate, so I’ll be mixing in Little quite a bit. He has six straight Top 20 finishes coming into Thursday’s race and he’s performed well at 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Garrett Smithley ($4,800; Starting P15) – Smithley is as low as I’m willing to go Thursday night, which isn’t saying much considering he’s the second-cheapest driver available. He has two straight Top 20 finishes at Kentucky and he typically can move up about five or six spots per race. Last year he started 35^th and finished 19^th. Similarly he’s shown the same ability to move up at Kansas and Chicago. The starting spot doesn’t lend him to a ton of PD, but even if he loses a few spots and finished 18^th that won’t be terrible value.

Example Lineups

Just a quick note on the Example Lineups: I'm playing all of them in the Happy Hour but I'm not playing any Cash games tonight. It's shaping up to be a good GPP night, while tomorrow should present more Cash game builds for us. I'm also taking more of a liking to Timmy Hill. He hasn't had much success at Kentucky, but there's momentum with this guy in the 61-car for HRE. Hence why he appeared in one or two of the builds below. Best of luck tonight!