NASCAR DFS: Pennzoil 150 Track Breakdown

So after a weekend where we had numerous races at Pocono and, for the most part, thought we’d see some pretty boring racing. We had anything but that. It was chaos among the Truck and Xfinity race with quite a few wrecks and track position played a huge role. A lot of people like to compare Pocono to Indianapolis because you witness the same “boring” racing at each track. That may be true for the quad-oval that the Cup drivers will run. Traditionally it’s hard to pass at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. However, for the first time ever the Xfinity drivers will run the road course at IMS. It’s a 2.439-mile course with 14 turns and they will run 62 laps on Saturday, with 20-20-22 lap stages. See the highlighted course below.

At the time this is starting to be written (Monday Night) we won’t have Qualifying, but the Xfinity drivers will run two practice sessions on Friday to gain some familiarity with the track and those notes will be published Friday night.

Over the last six-to-eight months Roger Penske (yes, the founder of Team Penske) purchased Indianapolis Motor Speedway and to increase interest and the quality of racing NASCAR announced that Xfinity would run an inaugural race this Fourth of July weekend. Xfinity traditionally runs at the Charlotte Roval, Watkins Glen, Mid Ohio, and Road America in Wisconsin so they aren’t terribly new to road courses. Cup driver Matt DiBenedetto ran some laps on the road course back in January and offered input as to whether Xfinity should go with the 12-turn course or the 14-turn layout. NASCAR opted for the latter, so this is what we’re looking at. Below is a video from Graham Rahal’s visor cam from the 2016 INDYCAR race at the IMS road course.

Below are the tables for the Xfinity races at Watkins Glen, the Charlotte Roval, Mid Ohio, and Road America from the last two years. I didn’t go back over the last four years because the Roval has only been run the last two years and most of the field has only run a couple road courses the last few years. Drivers that have a more thorough background on road courses will be highlighted in the Playbook so these tables just cover the road courses from 2018 and 2019.

Watkins Glen

Charlotte Roval

Road America

Mid-Ohio

Drivers To Watch

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe set a goal for himself of getting anywhere from eight-to-twelve wins this year in Xfinity. That’s a lofty goal, but surprisingly enough he already has four including a win last week at Pocono. This is also considered his home track since he grew up about two hours from IMS. On the IMS oval he has two top ten finishes, but this is a different beast since nobody has run the road course. We still have to like the pedigree and results he’s shown lately as three of his wins have come since the season got back under way. In six road course races he’s finished outside the Top 10 just once and he has a win under his belt from the Charlotte Roval back in 2018.

Austin Cindric – Cindric is a driver to watch for quite a few reasons. For starters, he’s a very good road course racer. In the last two years, across eight road course races, he has six Top 5 finishes. Not to mention, in four road course races in 2019 he never finishes worse than third and he came away with a win at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. Also, he’s a Team Penske driver and as mentioned above, this track is now owned by Roger Penske. It has all the makings for Cindric to get his first win of the year especially after a disappointing end to his race at Pocono last weekend.

Justin Allgaier – Allgaier, like Cindric, is a great road course driver. In 2019 he had four top ten finishes, and he won at Road America and Mid-Ohio in 2018. He also doesn’t have a win this year and only has a couple top five finishes. He typically runs well early on in races and then something goes wrong with his car. He could make or break your lineups this weekend. He’s a bit of a mixed bag.

Jeremy Clements – Clements is coming in with some momentum following a third-place finish at Pocono last weekend. Traditionally he’s a solid road racer. He logged a win at Road America back in 2017, has six Top 15 finishes in the last eight road course races from 2018 and 2019, including finishes of 11^th, 11^th, 11^th, and 8^th at the four road courses last year. Ride the momentum of Clements this week.

Contrarian Plays, Stephen Leicht and Michael Annett – Leicht hasn’t finished too many races this year whether that’s been due to mechanical issues or he’s had to park the car without a sponsor. But (as will be noted shortly) Leicht is moving over to the 61-car that is normally driven by Timmy Hill. This leads to some better equipment and a sponsor. Leicht’s ownership might be down a little bit for Saturday’s race based on the results so far in 2020, but last year at Watkins Glen and the Roval he logged Top 20 finishes in both races gaining at least seven spots in each race. He didn’t have the same result at Road America or Mid-Ohio due to an engine issue (shocker), but Leicht is an early cheap favorite of mine this weekend. Also, I’m hoping we get Michael Annett at low ownership, but I know Leicht is more of a contrarian play than Annett. Annett is typically priced up and a decent PD target. Since 2017 here’s a breakdown of his performances at Watkins Glen, Charlotte Roval Mid-Ohio, and Road America:

• Watkins Glen: 3 Races, 22.0 AVG Start, 13.7 AVG Finish, +25 total PD
• Road America: 3 Races, 18.0 AVG Start, 8.7 AVG Finish, +28 total PD
• Mid-Ohio: 3 Races, 25.0 AVG Start, 16.7 AVG Finish, +25 total PD
• Charlotte Roval: 2 Races, 23.0 AVG Start, 17.5 AVG Finish, +11 total PD

Like I said, he’s not as contrarian as Leicht, but typically ownership isn’t incredibly heavy on Annett so we’ll take advantage this weekend.

Fade of the Week, Justin Haley – Initially I had Daniel Hemric in this section until I noticed he was left off the entry list as Jeb Burton will be running in the 8-car this Saturday. But I’m not going to fully fade Justin Haley because he typically comes with a friendly price tag. However, the ownership will be significantly lighter than normal. In five races across the four “road courses” Xfinity runs, he has just two top ten’s and the Roval and Watkins Glen grade as some of his worst tracks. He’ll likely start high given where he stands in the owner points so I’m not a fan of the starting position. He does have the benefit of getting practice in, but if Xfinity had no plans for practice, I’d probably avoid him. Again, I’m keeping exposure light to maybe two lineups out of 20 so it’s not a full fade.

Other Driver Notes

MBM Motorsports will be shuffling up their drivers this weekend. Timmy Hill will be driving in the 13-car that is normally run by Chad Finchum. Stephen Leicht will go to the 61-car that has been run lately by Hill, and Finchum moves to the 66-car. This is good news for Hill and Leicht. Hill is coming off a solid race at Pocono and Leicht has traditionally been a start & park driver due to a lack of sponsorships. The 61-car means that he could run a full race which makes him a potential DFS play. Practice for these drivers in new cars will be pretty important.

Be sure to keep an eye on “Road Course Ringers” for Saturday’s race. These are guys that are hired by teams specifically to run road courses. Preston Pardus isn’t necessarily an elite road course driver, but he’s in the 36-car for DGM Racing. He only has two races in Xfinity under his belt, but they came last year at the Roval and Road America. Brandon Gdovic is returning to the Xfinity series for the first time in four years as he’ll be riding for Sam Hunt Racing. Gdovic has found some success in the Lamborghini Super Trofeo Series, which specializes in road course racing.

I’m a little surprised that Kaz Grala isn’t on the early entry list for this race. Grala, Anthony Alfredo, and Myatt Snider are each under contract to drive the 21-car for Richard Childress Racing. The 21-car has been great this year and Grala has more experience on road courses than Alfredo or Snider, and he has some very strong results as well. Sadly, Grala currently isn’t listed for the race and it’ll be Alfredo in the 21-car for RCR this weekend. Snider goes to the 93-car car for RSS Racing.

Mike Wallace returns to the 0-car for JD Motorsports this weekend. He hasn’t raced in five years so his DFS value will depend on price tag and starting spot. Jade Buford will also be appearing in the 07-car for SS Green Light Racing. He’s a bit of a road course specialist with some success in other circuits.