NASCAR DFS: Xfinity EchoPark 250 Playbook & Example Lineups

This is going to be an interesting Xfinity race and I’d rather look more at the driver breakdowns than the table for this week. The problem with some of the more recent Xfinity races in Atlanta is that a lot of Cup drivers ran the race. Harvick ran the race in 2017 and 2018. Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski ran in 2017. Not to mention in last year’s race, three drivers that finished in the Top 5 are now in the Cup series. So if you don’t see a ton of laps led or fastest laps, don’t panic. Xfinity drivers fell victim to Cup drivers.

We’re looking to follow up Monday night’s Xfinity race with more success. I was nervous about Bristol, but the Xfinity race yielded better DFS results than the Cup race, which was an absolute mess. I’m left wondering “what could’ve been” with many of my builds after Austin Cindric’s early departure ruined about 40% of my lineups, but I still turned a slight profit even with Allgaier wrecking in the final five laps. But for Atlanta, we return to the normal 1.5-mile tracks and this one in particular chews up tires so pit stops will be abundant and crucial. For this track we can also research similar 1.5-mile tracks like Charlotte, Texas, and Las Vegas due to the length and layouts of these tracks. However, as Matt Selz always points out that Atlanta just chews up tires so some other comparable races to look at include Auto Club and Miami Homestead.

As you can see nearly one-third of the field has never run in an Atlanta race for the Xfinity series. However, that’s a bit misleading. Some drivers have experience in the Truck series (although the racing in the Trucks is a bit different) and A.J. Allmendinger has experience in the Cup series. And as mentioned previously, the Cup drivers that ran Atlanta the past few years dominated fastest laps and laps led. Luckily this is a Dash 4 Cash race so Cup drivers are excluded. Quite a few of them have entered the Truck race just before the Xfinity race. The four drivers eligible for Dash 4 Cash in Atlanta will be Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe, Brandon Jones, and Harrison Burton. Whoever finishes first out of those four drivers wins an additional $100,000. So there’s more motivation for those drivers this week so my exposure might be a little heavier on them. Saturday’s race is set for 163 laps.

Drivers To Target

A.J. Allmendinger (Starting P30; $11,600) – Prepare to eat chalk again… Actually, Allmendinger wasn’t as chalky as I thought he would be in Monday’s race. In the Slingshot he was about 22% owned and fairly expensive as well. He started 27^th and finished tenth. He had some bad luck in the race and fell a couple laps down in Stage 3, but he finished all three stages in the Top 10, even with some bad luck and rough patches throughout the race. He still returned 5X value and he has a better PD spot this week. From 2016-2018 he didn’t have the greatest races in the Cup series, but we saw on Monday how easy it will be for him to navigate the Xfinity field.

Chase Briscoe (Starting P9; $11,200) – Of all the Dash 4 Cash drivers, Briscoe is the one I’m most nervous about. For starters, the price tag is high. He really needs a Top 4 finish with laps led and fastest laps to get close to 5X value. His price tag has been inflated the last two races and he hasn’t returned 5X value since his dramatic win at Darlington a few weeks back. But I’ll get exposure there because $100K is on the line between him and three other drivers. He has an okay history at Atlanta. He’s finished 15^th twice and he has a modest resume for Auto Club and other 1.5-mile tracks. He’s a costly risk if he isn’t getting to the front to lead laps, but the Dash 4 Cash entry means he may approach this race with a different approach in recent years.

Justin Allgaier (Starting P3; $10,700) – Allgaier’s going to be hungry, and maybe a little vengeful on Saturday. He’s gained PD in eight of nine Xfinity races at Atlanta with the outlier being a 30^th place finish in 2017. Bristol was a great track for Allgaier, and Atlanta is a good one for him too. He isn’t in Dash 4 Cash but Allgaier and his 7-car have looked really good since the season started back up. He looked like he was going to run away with Monday’s race before the disastrous finish. This is a great rebound spot.

Brandon Jones (Starting P12; $10,000) – I guess I’ve soured on Jones a little bit. In each of the last two races he started on the front row and didn’t lead any laps. He’s had a solid car and his pit crew really helped him with fast pit stops in Bristol so they helped him maintain position on the track. I like him this week because he’s in a JGR car and it’s looked like a Top 5 car so the PD is there for him starting outside the Top 10. He has a decent history of PD at Atlanta and he came in 4^th at this race last year.

Austin Cindric (Starting P8; $9,700) – Oh what could have been? Cindric was involved in an early wreck with Ross Chastain and Michael Annett in Monday’s race at Bristol. It knocked Cindric out and crushed any lineup that had him. I was very heavy on Cindric so I was lucky to come away with green Monday night. He has a pretty solid history at Atlanta in Xfinity. In two races he’s never finished outside the Top 10 in any stage. So he’s consistently running toward the front. I do wish he was a little bit cheaper, but he’s still in play at this price.

Harrison Burton (Starting P5; $9,500) – Burton’s one of the Dash 4 Cash drivers who had a solid showing on Monday night at Bristol. He started on the pole and led 81 laps and finished 4^th and that was at a track he didn’t have a great history at previously. He only ran Atlanta last year in the Truck series, he won the Xfinity race back in February at Auto Club and led 40 laps with 27 fastest laps. He’s got the tools to be a solid play again on Saturday.

Noah Gragson (Starting P1; $9,100) – We’ve got Gragson on the pole and he’s competing in Dash 4 Cash so we obviously want exposure for the laps led and fastest laps. He actually looked quite impressive Monday night at Bristol. He Yo-Yo’d a little bit around the Top 10, but came away with the win, although it required some tight racing against Justin Allgaier. He can only go backwards, but he’ll be a solid play starting at the front.

Michael Annett (Starting P21; $8,700) – Annett is priced up a little this week because of the starting spot, but he does have a pretty solid history at 1.5-mile tracks and tracks that eat tires. In eight career races at Atlanta he’s never finished worse than 21^st (where he’s starting Saturday) and he moves up on average four spots per race. In four of his last five races here he’s finished in the Top 15. He also moves up about seven spots per race at Auto Club. Now if he moves up ten spots and finished 11^th, that’s a 5X return. I’m not entirely sure that’s a guarantee, but he’s capable of doing so. He’s coming off a race at Bristol where his day was cut well short as he was involved in the Chastain/Cindric wreck as well. He’s motivated and wants a good run on Saturday. I’m nervous about playing him in Cash because of the finish that is required of him for value, but I’ll definitely get GPP exposure.

Josh Williams (Starting P23; $8,500) – If I have to choose between Josh Williams or Jeremy Clements, I’ll take Williams this week. Williams is starting a few spots back and he’s $400 cheaper. That’s not to say I won’t have any exposure to Clements, but I’ll favor Williams just slightly this week. Last year Williams started 19^th and finished 21^st. But the year before he finished 24^th after starting 37^th. If he can move up to, and finish 12^th, he’ll return 5X value. Any better finish is gravy at that point. Clements definitely needs a Top 10 finish for 5X value, but Clements doesn’t have the greatest PD history at Atlanta.

Myatt Snider (Starting P35; $8,100) – He’s not in the 21-car this week, but holy crap we get Myatt Snider starting 35^th. He’s going to be incredibly chalky with all the PD he’s due for. Earlier this year at Auto Club he ran in this exact same car starting 19^th and he finished 11^th. So he’s familiar with this car at tracks that devour tires and he can move up through the field. Snider will be making a few of my lineups, but we need to be disciplined here and keep the exposure to no more than 30%.

Anthony Alfredo (Starting P24; $7,900) – Myatt Snider won’t be in the 21-car for Saturday’s race in Atlanta. That privilege goes to Anthony Alfredo. He does have familiarity in this ride as well. The 21-car has been a PD gem, regardless of who was driving it. Alfredo started 13^th in this ride at Auto Club and finished 6^th. Previously he started 17^th and finished 14^th at Darlington. He ran in the Truck series race in Atlanta last year and started 27th and finished 17^th. This is a great start for Alfredo to get more PD from this fast ride.

Ryan Sieg (Starting P7; $7,500) – Sieg remains a GPP play since he’s starting so high. Personally, I don’t play this guy all that much but this will be a week I try to get some exposure. Last year he started 18^th and finished 11^th and earlier this year at Auto Club, he started 8^th and finished 4^th. Additionally, he has a pretty decent resume at 1.5-mile tracks. Don’t forget, we saw Sieg priced over $9,000 earlier in the year. He’s had some bad luck since the season restarted so we may get him at lower ownership on Saturday.

Brandon Brown (Starting P10; $6,800) – Brown’s been a great PD play the last couple races, but P10 is an awfully high starting spot. The good news is that if he holds the position and finishes 10^th then that’s 5X value. If he can somehow improve that position then it’s gravy. I am a little more weary of him this week since he’s starting so high. In two races at Atlanta he’s finished 13^th and 23^rd. So he’s strictly a GPP play this week since he’s starting P10.

Joe Graf Jr. (Starting P27; $6,600) – Since we’ve seen a return to racing, Graf has been a PD wizard. In three straight races he’s started outside the Top 25 and finished inside the Top 20 for all of them. This week he starts P27 so there’s still a good opportunity for him to get that precious PD we need from him. He didn’t have a great run at Auto Club back in February, but he and his team have been solid the last three races. Another Top 20 is within reach especially after an impressive finish of 13^th at Bristol.

Justin Haley (Starting P4; $6,500) – I was light on Haley on Monday night and for most of the night I was deeply regretting that decision. He started P4 at Bristol and ran inside the Top 10 for a good portion of the race, even running inside the Top 3 during Stage 3. He looked very fast and had one of the better cars on the track. He had a little contact late in the race that dropped him outside the Top 15, but he had a great race otherwise. In last year’s Atlanta race he started 13^th and finished 8^th. He’s got a decent history at 1.5-mile tracks and finished 5^th at Auto Club earlier this year. He’s a solid GPP play if he can find speed for the second straight race, and I’m hoping ownership will be light on him.

Timmy Hill (Starting P29; $5,600) – Timmy Hill is once again in the 61-car for HRE and he hasn’t gone backward in any of the four races he’s appeared in this car. This is a significantly better ride than the 66-car he occasionally drives for MBM Motorsports. In four races in this car he has a +27 position differential and he logged a Top 15 in last week’s Bristol race after an impressive Top 20 finish in the Cup series. He doesn’t have the greatest resume in Atlanta, but again he was in worse equipment.

Colby Howard (Starting P34; $5,500) – Howard’s a nice cheap option once again especially starting outside the Top 30. I don’t anticipate Start & Park for him, but I’ll be on the lookout for that news and will provide updates if they’re necessary. A Top 25 finished would return 5X value. He’s a slightly risky play even starting that far back, but he’s a salary saver.

Garrett Smithley (Starting P22; $5,400) – I normally don’t give Smithley a ton of love, except for when he’s in iRacing. But this is a decent week to get exposure. I would prefer if he was starting a little further back, but beggars can’t be choosers. Last year at Atlanta he started in the exact same spot and finished 17^th which would come close to 6X value. He moves up on average four spots at Atlanta while moving up about four spots per race at Auto Club. I know the PD is there for Howard and Hill that might put ownership on them, but I’m intrigued with Garrett Smithley for Saturday’s race. I may actually go heavier on him than those two.

BJ McLeod (Starting P17; $5,200) – As noted in the Playbook for Monday’s Xfinity race, McLeod tends to get the most out of his car. That was evidenced by his P24 start and his P11 finish, so we rode that 9X value all the way to the green on Monday. That was also a better track for McLeod. He loves running at Bristol. Atlanta hasn’t been as kind to him and the starting position is a little high. He’s never finished inside the Top 20 at Atlanta or Auto Club. He’s gotten a little better at 1.5-mile tracks, but sadly McLeod’s a risky play this week. The good news is that he doesn’t need any PD to return 5X value, but he is more of a GPP play this week.

Vinnie Miller (Starting P19; $4,700) – If I had to choose, I’d probably go with Smithley over Miller, but that’s just because I feel Smithley provides a safer floor. Miller is coming off a solid P12 finish at Bristol and he returned well over 6X value on Monday’s slate. This race he’s priced down and starting further back. However, he’s never finished inside the Top 30 in two Xfinity races here. He has a decent history at other 1.5-mile tracks, and he finished 15^th at Auto Club earlier in the year in the exact same ride. For whatever reason, he can’t seem to figure Atlanta out. I’ll get some exposure to Miller, but he’s about as cheap as I want to go. If he manages to move up just two spots and finish P17 that’ll return 6X value.

Example Lineups

DK Cash

DK GPP1

DK GPP2