(Monday updates are in RED.)

Last week’s race at Charlotte was a little rough. I broke even with some GPP lineups coming through in the Slingshot-equivalent contest. Kyle Busch being in the Xfinity or Truck races always presents a challenge, but we have KB54-free slate with Xfinity this week so we don’t need to worry about paying down too much.

To give a brief summary of the track, this is the Bullring. It’s a 0.533-mile short track. The turns are high in banking and it does get pretty narrow at times. Normally the great thing about this race is the fan experience. This is a big stadium with a half-mile race track inside it so fans line the entire length of the track and sadly none will be in attendance this time around. Matt Selz and I vary a little bit in our opinions of short track racing because lap traffic comes into play more than ever here because the laps just tick by so quickly. When they get this race started, the front row will fire up the engines and the last row will be about half-a-lap away. It is possible to move up at this track especially if you’re one of the more seasoned drivers at Bristol. We have 300 laps Monday night so that means there are 150 points available in fastest laps, with 75 points available in laps led.

Now for the MCI (Malin Confidence Index), it’s LOW for Bristol. I love watching races at Bristol, but I hate this track for DFS. Martinsville is a better short track for DFS in my opinion. There are fewer wrecks and fewer big wrecks since it’s a flatter track. I only threw $20 at Cash games for Sunday’s Cup race, I’m not playing any Cash games tonight. We saw the chaos that ensues at this track last night. So, I’m only playing GPP contests for Monday’s race, and I’m probably only playing the Slingshot and calling it a night. Put yourself on a level playing field and get some action on the three-entry max contests. I’m waiting until next weekend’s Atlanta race to get back into Cash games and I’ll play heavier then. Exposure for GPP's is only low because of the fact that yesterday's Cup race was riddled with cautions and was a mess. There should be fewer cautions in general since this race is 60% of what yesterday's was. And in general, for short track racing the Cash line is elevated because of the laps led factor so I'm avoiding Cash games altogether. Be responsible with your bankroll. I'll be in the NASCAR DFS chat at 4:00pm ET up until lock taking lineup questions.

MCI Cash Games: 2.5/10

MCI GPP’s: 5.0/10

 

Drivers To Target

Chase Briscoe ($12,000; Starting P11) – Briscoe is the odds-on favorite to win Monday’s race at +225 and he’s arguably the fan favorite to win as well. He had the emotional win at Darlington not too long ago but had a disappointing finish at Charlotte. The PD is there for Briscoe and he could get to the front and lead plenty of laps as well. He logged a pair of Top 5 finishes last year at Bristol and has looked plenty fast with the 98-car from Stewart-Haas Racing.

Justin Allgaier ($11,600; Starting P10) – While Allgaier hasn’t had the greatest results so far this season, he’s looked solid at times, including two races ago at Darlington. He offers PD upside while also laps led upside. In his last five Bristol Xfinity races he’s led 391 laps. In 18 races at Bristol he has 11 Top 10’s (eight of which have come in his last ten races), eight Top 5’s (six of which have come in his last ten), and a win which came over ten years ago. In the last five races at Bristol, he’s finished in the Top 3 at the end of Stages 1 and 2 eight times. So he does find his way to the front. It may take a little while Monday night, but he can get to the front and provide some laps led and fastest laps.

AJ Allmendinger ($11,100; Starting P27) – Let’s be honest, Allmendinger could be chalk for this race. He’s back with Kaulig Racing in the 16-car this time. In five races with Kaulig last year, he did have two Top 3 finishes including a win, but also finished outside the Top 30 twice as well, but the two better performances came later on as he got re-acclimated to Xfinity. He’s never run the Xfinity race at Bristol, but in 21 Cup races at Bristol he had an average start of 21.2 with an average finish of 24.67 so considering he’s a veteran he’s worth throwing into some builds with PD upside because he could be a huge play if he gets into the Top 10. For what it’s worth as of Friday night, Allmendinger was tied for the fourth-best odds to win the race at +1100.

Ross Chastain ($10,700; Starting P6) – Chastain rolls off P6 for Monday night’s race, and that’s a pretty solid spot for him. I do wish he was starting a little further back. Last year he wrecked and finished outside the Top 30, but in the three previous races he rolled off three straight Top 15 finishes while moving up at least five spots in each race. He also has a pretty solid history in the Truck series, which is more his bread & butter. But with the experience, we can take him here for a little PD with some potential to move up through the field to lead some laps.

Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P9) – I’ll have a little exposure to Gragson, but not sure I’m going super heavy. The sample size is small between Xfinity and the Truck series and while he’s always had a good starting spot, he does tend to fall back. I’m also not crazy about the price tag. At $10,000+ he really does need to lead laps and there are drivers ahead of him that I’m more confident in logging those. But we’ve seen him get to the front and lead laps each of the last two races so he can get there and with all the chaos we saw from Sunday’s Cup race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to the front even though I might be light.

Daniel Hemric ($10,000; Starting P8) – There was no chance I’d miss an opportunity to include Daniel Hemric in the Xfinity Playbook. His last race in Xfinity at Bristol didn’t go as planned as he wrecked and finished 24th back in August of 2018. However, in his three other Xfinity races he had three Top 10’s and two Top 5’s with some laps led. He started 23rd at Darlington and 12th at Charlotte and finished 6th and 2nd at those races respectively. The no practice, no qualifying format has worked very well for him so far.

Harrison Burton ($9,700; Starting P1) – Burton has only run one race at Bristol and it came last April. He started fifth and finished tenth, but he consistently ran inside the Top 10 for most of the race as he finished each stage inside the Top 10. Obviously, the laps led are there for him if he can get a good jump, but he can only go backwards so you better hope he gets a healthy dose of laps led. For what it’s worth, he also went backward in both his Truck series races at Bristol. I'll keep exposure light on Burton, but he'll make a couple of my builds in the hope that he can hold the lead for a good portion of the first stage.

Austin Cindric ($9,400; Starting P3) – Cindric’s consistency at Bristol is what jumps off the page. He’s never finished outside the Top 15 in four Bristol races and at both Bullring races a year ago he finished sixth and fifth. He did go backwards in both races and it’s worth noting that he’s only led two laps at Bristol in his four races. Even in August when he started on the pole, the track position didn’t last long. If the price is right he could be a solid GPP play considering he’s starting in the Top 5, similar to both races last year.

Brandon Jones ($9,100; Starting P2) – I’m not going to say I was burned terribly by Jones last week, but seeing him wreck out after running in the Top 10 for most of the Charlotte race certainly sucked. He’s back starting P2 once again at a track he has a decent history at. The good news is that you basically know Jones is a GPP play this week. If you want to throw him in your Cash lineup you can, I might not go that route. But I do like him in GPP’s starting on the front row. In his last four races he’s led 131 laps (106 of those came two years ago) and he tends to run inside the Top 10 consistently with solid stage results. Ownership might be down but I’ll go back to the well and getting some exposure.

Alex Labbe ($8,900; Starting P32) – Labbe’s a solid PD play, but I’m not going to have a ton of exposure here because the price makes it a little difficult. He needs 44.5 points for 5X value, which means he basically needs a Top 15 finish for that result. Can he get there? Sure, we saw him move from 37th to 16th last week at Charlotte. But he doesn’t have the best history here either, so while I’ll have some exposure in GPP’s, I’m not going to go too crazy. He might make two or three of my 20 lineups, but I’ll let other people fall in love with the PD.

Jeremy Clements ($8,700; Starting P29) – Clements will be a popular play for the PD. He started 30th at Darlington a couple races back and finished 12th and Bristol is one of his better tracks. In his last ten Xfinity races at Bristol he has finished in the Top 15 eight times, with two Top 10’s, and a Top 5 in there as well. Rolling off P29 he should be a pretty popular play.

Michael Annett ($8,000; Starting P12) – Last year, in both Bristol races for Xfinity, Annett started P9 and P15 and he finished just inside the Top 10 in both races. So he’s rolling off P12 Monday night so you have to imagine he can crack the Top 10 once again. It’s strange because you kind of know what you’re getting with Annett. In his last ten Xfinity races at Bristol, he has nine Top 12 finishes in ten races, but he hasn’t finished in the Top 5 here. So some PD points are in play as is a Top 10 finish, but the ceiling may be a bit limited.

Brandon Brown ($7,700; Starting P21) – Brown’s in position for some more PD upside. Last week at Charlotte, Brown started 15th and finished 6th, which gives him back-to-back Top 15 finishes between Darlington and Charlotte. He’s seemingly done well enough moving up through the field in previous races at Bristol. Last August he started 17th and finished 12th and in 2018 he started 38th and finished 25th. P21 is perfect for Brown and perhaps he can pull off a Top 10 finish Monday night. Either way, he’s a pretty good play for both Cash games and GPP contests.

Myatt Snider ($7,000; Starting P22) – So Snider only has one race at Bristol and it came in the Truck series two years ago. He started 17th and finished 29th. Not exactly a resume worth writing home about. However, the 21-car for Richard Childress Racing has been pretty fast this year. In Snider’s return to the 21-car last week at Charlotte he started 17th and finished 10th. Anthony Alfredo logged a Top 15 finish at Darlington the week before in the same car after starting 17th. Snider’s experience is a bit of a risk, but there’s PD in play with this car. From 2017-2018, Daniel Hemric drove the 21-car to three Top 7 finishes in four races at Bristol. Let’s hope that Snider and the 21-car have some more magic in them this week.

Joe Graf Jr. ($6,700; Starting P36) – The downside with Graf is that the price tag just keeps on ticking upward. The good news? He’s starting closer to the back and that leaves him with plenty of PD upside. 33.5 points will be needed for 5X value at this price tag. Fortunately for him, he just needs to finish 24th to hit that value and he’s cracked the Top 20 in his last two races. There is still some risk with taking drivers this far back, but Graf has proven to be a solid enough driver to get that PD.

Matt Mills ($6,700; Starting P31) – Mills is another great PD play especially at his price tag. In two races last year at Bristol he started P30 and P31 respectively with finishes of 18th and 21st. That’s a combined PD of +22 in both races and sure enough he’s starting P31 again Monday night in the same ride as last year. He may come with some high ownership as the salary is a little friendly, but he lets us pay up for those who can collect dominator points.

Justin Haley ($6,400; Starting P4) – You obviously don’t love the PD since it’s more likely than not that he goes backward. His Xfinity experience is a mixed bag of results. In both Bristol races last year he started 11th and finished 37th and 7th. The worse of the two was result of an engine issue, but he has a decent resume in the Truck series. He has experience at Bristol, but he’s a cheap GPP play that’s starting close to the front. There’s a shot at some dominator points, but it’s not a great shot. Tread carefully.

Stephen Leicht ($5,700; Starting P37) – Stephen Leicht has a sponsor this week so I’m not too worried about him going out there for Start & Park. Now it’s worth mentioning that he isn’t in the greatest equipment for this race as he's riding in Timmy Hill's normal car. The 66-Toyota for MBM Motorsports hasn’t been kind to him. In four races this year, he hasn’t finished a single one. That’s the bad news, the good news is that he has a pretty decent resume at Bristol in the Xfinity series. Last August he started 37th and finished 19th. He has an average start of 34.6 with an average finish of 26.43, but keep in mind that was a better ride. The PD is great and I’m sure he’ll come with some decent ownership based off the resume alone (and price tag), but it’s no guarantee he finishes the race. Even with the PD upside and cheap price tag, he’s risky. Update: Hearing that Leicht may be S&P (Start and Park) tonight but am currently trying to confirm from all outlets. I am getting less exposure at the moment, but not a full fade just yet. Obviously if he's S&P we want him out of our lineups.

Timmy Hill ($5,500; Starting P25) – I find myself getting Timmy Hill in a few early builds for GPP’s today. I’d like him more if he started outside the Top 30, but with Leicht occupying the 66-car for MBM, Hill will drive the 61-car for Hattori Racing Enterprises and in three races this year with HRE he’s moved up at least three spots each race in this car. He also has plenty of experience at Bristol and don’t forget he logged a Top 20 finish in yesterday’s Cup race.

BJ McLeod ($5,000; Starting P24) – McLeod is just a solid driver in Xfinity. You just watch him race and he just tends to get more out of his car. He started 13th and 14th at Darlington and Charlotte and finished 15th and 17th. So sure, he technically went backwards, but he’s not the option to target when he’s starting that high, especially when Kyle Busch is starting behind you in both races. He rolls off P24 Monday night and we should definitely get exposure to him at this spot. In his last four Xfinity races at Bristol, McLeod has moved up at least four spots in each race. Last year he started P34 and finished 26th. The three prior races all resulted in Top 20 finishes with a combined PD of +15 across those three races. This is a starting spot we absolutely love for McLeod to help return some value. I will have a decent amount of exposure to McLeod.

 

Example Lineups

DK Cash

 

 

 

 

 

I would consider Allgaier, Allmendinger, and Clements locks. McLeod is almost a lock as well given the need to pay down after locking in two guys priced $11,000+. Graf and Mills would be the pivots going down/up to maybe Timmy Hill, Myatt Snider, Tommy Joe Martins, etc.

 

DK GPP1

 

 

 

 

 

I love Allgaier tonight and think you get laps led potential with him and Cindric plus the PD from the other four drivers. You can pivot off Cindric to Brandon Jones and possibly pivot off Martins and Graf and go down to Hill/McLeod while going up for another Playbook driver that may give some laps led/fastest lap upside.

 

DK GPP2

 

 

 

 

 

 

I love this anti-Allgaier build. You still get PD with plenty of guys and three guys starting in the Top 10 that are candidates for laps led. I'd keep Cindric, Hemric, Jones, and Clements as locks and work off Martins and Hill if looking to pivot and change up the build.