Howdy Howdy! Welcome to the FIRST NASCAR DFS Playbook on the Malin end of the spectrum. I’m going to introduce you all to what I like to call the “Malin Confidence Index” for NASCAR races. This is basically a numeric or statistical value on how confident I feel on certain slates. For example, the MCI on Cash Games for the Monday Xfinity race was about 3/10 while GPP was at 7/10. Cash games were rough for that race because of Kyle Busch’s stupid price tag so I only played in one cash contest while max-entering the Slingshot and Happy Hour. Now on Sunday I was around 7/10 for Cash games while 8/10 for GPP’s. Despite my confidence my own cash lineups went up in smoke while my GPP builds helped keep me from drowning completely. I’m a firm believer in total transparency and I didn’t have a great race (if anyone saw Stage 3, you’ll know why), but recouped some money in GPP builds. Now this race is interesting. A lot of value can actually be found at the top. Not the very top with Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and other gents starting toward the back. But look at prices for guys like Kyle Busch, MTJ, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, etc. There’s value to be had all around. My MCI reads for this race are about:
6.5/10 for DK Cash Games
8.5/10 for DK GPP's
9.0/10 for FD Cash Games
8.0/10 for FD GPP's
I truly believe there is a solid GPP takedown in this slate among the FANation. As always, play within your means. We’re still in some tough times so go play the three-entry or single-entry tournaments. I’m still max-entering the Slingshot and Happy Hour contests. I’m not playing the Intimidator on FanDuel because I hate the entry fee as well as the size of the field.
Now I’m opening this with a Tip for all DFS players. Whether you win or lose, take a look at the slate and how your builds stacked up against the field. I learned this tip from a loyal member of the FANation, Mike (@YHNYDad on Twitter). I love finding different perspectives for DFS slates. Selz and I approach races with different strategies (wait until we discuss short tracks like Bristol and Martinsville). I’ll sometimes read through the work of other NASCAR DFS guys to get a different perspective as well. But Mike always looks through his lineups win-or-lose to see how he stacked up against the field. And with Charlotte’s race we have a lot to look at. It’s not just the Cup race, but we have an Xfinity race and the Gander Truck race to look at results. As mentioned in the podcast for this race, we’re at a disadvantage because the DFS sites are trying to take value away from us, hence why JJ and Clint are priced up. It’s the downside of knowing the starting order before we know prices. Normally we know prices before the starting order and once qualifying is determined we can find our own value. So it isn’t so much as trying to “find value” with this slate, but we need to analyze potential value and I’ll go deeper in this when I break down JJ in the Playbook.
And we shouldn’t be afraid to play anyone in the front row. For this week, we have two Hendrick drivers: William Byron, the King of Qualifying, who lucked into P1 and Alex Bowman, who is going to be soooooooo chalky because he’s been fast this year and led 160+ laps on Sunday. We’ve found that clean air at Charlotte can lead to DFS returns. On Monday night, Ross Chastain started on the pole in the Xfinity race and led 68 laps. He finished fourth and returned great value at $8,700 with 67 points on DraftKings. Kurt Busch on Sunday, started on the pole, caught clean air for a lot of stage one, enough to lead 54 laps. He also caught 22 of the fastest laps, and he faded from first to eighth during the race. But he was $8,700 and yielded 54 points on DraftKings. So far, we can deduce that clean air is helping drivers. Why Chase’s team didn’t see this in Sunday’s race for the final two laps is beyond me. In conclusion, don’t be afraid of starting position for guys on the front row.. It’s obvious the field of DFS players will be higher on Bowman than Byron, but let’s use what we’ve learned from Charlotte the last few races to get an advantage. I absolutely believe the FANation can take down some GPP contests whether they’re three-entry max tourneys or smaller $1 buy in’s. Play responsibly and finish in the green. Let’s check out the drivers I love for Wednesday’s race!
Take Note: JJ Yeley (P21) and Josh Bilicki (P37) will drop to rear on opening pace laps.
Stacks
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