Every year for fantasy football prep you’ll read up on why you should wait until the last two picks to select your defense/special teams. I understand the allure of drafting a D/ST before those final two rounds. If you can jump a little bit early, and there’s a great team available, then grabbing an elite D/ST seems perfectly fine. The draft is just the beginning, so drafting a D/ST early won’t necessarily be the nail in your coffin. However, we’re going to look at the ADP’s from last season and examine the output from the highest-drafted D/ST’s and prove that it just isn’t worth the risk. I’m not opposed to taking a D/ST after Round 13. However, there’s no need to be taking one in Round 10.
The Chicago Bears
According to Fantasy Pros, the Bears were (on average) the first D/ST off the board in most fantasy football drafts last year. With an average ADP of 89.0, the Bears were selected in front of players like Curtis Samuel , Devin Singletary , Lamar Jackson , Kyler Murray , Courtland Sutton , Austin Hooper , Michael Gallup , Mark Andrews , D.K. Metcalf, among others. The Bears didn’t come close to living up to such a lofty ADP. According to Fantasy Pros scoring, they ranked 20th last season and averaged six points per game. The Bears did get off to a decent start in September though. In their first four games they put up 50 fantasy points. However, they cooled off considerably when you look at their game log. They started surrendering more points, they forced just nine turnovers in their last 11 games and had just 15 sacks in that span as well. It didn’t exactly help that the Bears offense couldn’t stay on the field, forcing the defense to exhaust themselves attempting to shut down opposing offenses. For 2020, the Bears don’t have nearly the same ADP as last year. But it’s significantly lower outside the Top 150 picks and they’re the fifth D/ST off the board, which is somewhat surprising. Let this serve as a stark reminder to never take a D/ST so early.
The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are no strangers to being a D/ST drafted early that failed to live up to expectations. We shouldn’t forget that they did boast one of the best defenses in the league just a few years ago. After the 2017 season the Jags made it all the way to the AFC Championship game. They were riding high, they had talented players, and they were built for long-term success. In 2018, they were the first defense off the board (around 139th overall). They finished as the 15th-best D/ST in fantasy football that season, went 5-11, and missed the playoffs. But they didn’t leave a stigma on fantasy owners for the 2019 season. Last year, with an average ADP of 125.5, the Jaguars were drafted as a Top Five D/ST. Once again, they finished outside the Top 12 for D/ST’s. They weren’t completely worthless though; they had some good games that were matchup dependent. But they were drafted as an elite D/ST and they had seven games last season where they yielded two points or fewer. Nowadays, the Jaguars have seen some of their best players get traded away for previous issues with Tom Coughlin (who is now no longer with the team). They’re definitely a team worth passing on in 2020 unless they show any signs of life this season.
Finding Value
The goal is to find value this late in the draft. There is virtually no value in being the first team taking a D/ST. The top-ranked D/ST from the previous season largely never repeats and they regress, thus failing to live up to being the first D/ST off the board. You want to be the fantasy player that jumps on the D/ST that will breakout that year. The Bills, Steelers, and 49ers were all great values last year and they were each Top Six D/ST’s come season’s end. For 2020, there are a few D/ST’s I’m keeping my eye on but won’t know officially how I feel about them until the NFL Draft happens next week. If you want a preview of a few teams that I’m keeping my eye on heading into draft prep then check out some D/ST's on the rise based on free agency moves made so far this season. Keep an eye on these units and see what they do in the draft. They could each provide value for you on draft day.
Predicting This Year’s Busts
If we’re in need of a look at this year’s D/ST’s that could bust, a few teams come to mind, but look no further than the New England Patriots. Overall, the Patriots still had one of the best D/ST seasons in fantasy football history even with the shortcomings in the second half of the year. The elite numbers were so front loaded with 31 sacks, 25 turnovers, and six touchdowns in their first eight games. The schedule was on the softer side, but they still had some fantastic players at their disposal. According to ESPN’s standard scoring, the Patriots put up 165 fantasy points in the first eight weeks of the season. That’s still more than every other D/ST for the whole season, save for the Steelers who finished as the second-best D/ST with 181 points. The Pats ran into a tougher schedule in the second half of the season and were a bit exposed. They also had a little personnel turnover in the offseason with Kyle Van Noy , Jamie Collins , and Danny Shelton departing, as well as Tom Brady on the offensive side. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, the Patriots are still being drafted as the first D/ST off the board, albeit in the beginning of Round 12. They still have some solid players, especially in Stephon Gilmore , but the Patriots are easily in line to regress this season. Here are a few other D/ST's that I believe won’t be worth their ADP’s this season.
Streaming D/ST’s
The curse with drafting a D/ST early is that you’re leaving breakout players on the board. You’re not going to hit with every draft selection outside the first ten rounds, but there are breakouts and value players still on the board when you’re reaching for a D/ST. Refer to the Chicago Bears section from above. You could’ve had a breakout, MVP-caliber season from Lamar Jackson if you had passed on drafting the Bears. You could’ve had similar results from Mark Andrews , D.K. Metcalf, Austin Hooper , etc. It’s perfectly fine to sit and wait for a D/ST with one of your last two picks. One strategy I deploy during my draft is identifying a team I want for maybe the first two games of the season. Perhaps they have some good matchups, or back-to-back home games that I’ll take advantage of. After that I’ll drop them and stream D/ST’s from there based on matchups and try to find teams whose stock may be on the rise. In a lot of leagues, fantasy owners that drafted the 49ers saw seven-and-eight-point yields in weeks two and three, and then dropped them for their Week 4 bye week this year. And there you have it, a Top Five D/ST just sitting there on waivers for you.
You can also identify D/ST’s to possibly stream by looking at the over/under’s provided by Vegas. These are good indicators of which games may be on the softer end of the scoring spectrum. See if any favorites in those low scoring games are available and grab them for the week. I also prefer taking teams that may be able to get about three-to-four sack at minimum and hopefully a turnover or two. Don’t ever go into a week saying “I need some touchdowns from my D/ST” because your expectations are delusional. Hope for seven or eight fantasy points, and everything after that will be gravy.
I’ll go more in depth in the coming weeks regarding streaming D/ST’s. This is usually the time when the NFL releases its schedule. But given the current events taking place, they’re delaying the announcement until next month. However, when the schedules are made available there will be a D/ST Preview article targeting D/ST’s to stream to begin the year, and teams to keep an eye on for your playoff run but so much happens throughout the year that by the team the fantasy playoffs roll around, we may be looking at some different teams to stream. Just sit back, be patient, and have a list of teams with upside that you’ll want to take in the later rounds. If you take away one thing from this article, just don’t be the first team to draft a D/ST. Let others in your league make that mistake.