Two years ago, when submitting a similar article for the 2018 MLB Draft Guide, I ultimately decided that one could wait on starting pitching. And after some time of reflection, I’ve changed my mind a little bit. Knowing when to draft starting pitching is always dependent on your league’s rules and format first and foremost. The new tone towards being more aggressive with starting pitchers is a by-product of the juiced ball. If you read up on The Value of Tiers you’ll know that there is more depth at virtually every offensive position, save for catcher. But the more depth provided to hitters means you can be a little more patient on drafting offensive pieces. In 2019 there were 53 players with at least 30 home runs and 96 with at least 20 dingers. In 2018, only 26 players finished with 30 or more home runs and 77 with at least 20. For 2020, Steamer currently has 56 hitters projected for 30+ home runs, and 142 players projected for 20+ home runs. That being said, it appears there are plenty of offensive pieces to draft in the middle of the draft. And if you think about it, in a 12-team draft you could still be finding a player projected for 20+ home runs in the 12th-15th round of your draft and possibly later.
Now while the juiced ball has been beneficial to hitters, it’s had a negative impact on pitchers if you consider the increase in power and home runs. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the guys toeing the rubber. Justin Verlander has been incredibly vocal about the changes in the baseball since Major League Baseball knows that scoring and home runs bring people to the ballpark. The juiced ball can impact pitchers across the board. Nobody is really safe. However, as the numbers of players projected for 20-and-30 home runs grows, there should be more emphasis placed on drafting stud pitchers. Yes, for those of you who have drafted with me in leagues past, you may have just had one hell of a spit take. But it’s true, I’m now more aggressive than ever to land an ace pitcher or two. There will be plenty of hitters available later on, but as always everything is still league dependent.
Know Your League Rules
Whether it’s MLB, NFL, or any other fantasy sport you’ll hear every single fantasy pundit tell you to be aware of your league rules. It’s a cliché for a reason because you can gain a significant advantage. For example, if you play in a 5x5 category fantasy baseball league that requires a minimum of ten innings of work then you shouldn’t be targeting a ton of pitching. It might be wise to draft one pitcher in the Top 12 and a couple other pitchers later on, then let relievers/closers round out your pitching staff. With this method you’re essentially punting wins, which is never a good idea, but since you only have to reach a ten-inning minimum each week you might be able to win the other categories (ERA, WHIP, Saves, and usually a ratio category of some sort). Now if the innings minimum is higher at 20 or 25 then you’ll need more arms. Always check to see if there’s a minimum innings requirement. If it’s wildly low then you may be able to skirt the rules by grabbing a couple great starting pitchers and a few of the best closers and you can call it a week by being the smartest manager in your league. Speaking from experience, this might annoy your league mates. But you don’t make the rules, you just win by them.
I won’t dive too deep into points leagues because there will be a separate article for that format (coming out very soon). However, in a points league you’ll be more inclined to load up on stud pitchers that go deep into their starts while racking up the strikeouts. In your most basic points leagues in fantasy baseball, one inning of work equates to about 2.25 points. So an out is typically 0.75 points, while a strikeout is an additional point. So in reality a strikeout is actually worth 1.75 points. You’ll also be better served to target SP/RP eligible arms to give your rotation some flexibility. Remember in a points league, anything more than zero points helps your team. So, maximize the points from your starters. This may put more of an onus on drafting quality arms, but if you miss out don’t hesitate to stream pitchers throughout the year. And again, check and see if there’s a limitation on the number of starts you have each week in a points league. If you’re limited to 8-12 starts a week from starters, it’ll make streaming a little more difficult so you’ll really want reliable starters options on your roster.
Avoiding Injury Prone Players
It basically goes without saying, but drafting pitchers with an injury history is a big risk. A few weeks back, the Minnesota Twins signed Rich Hill to a one-year deal. Hill, when healthy, is a very good pitcher. In 2018, with the Dodgers, he was 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 25 appearances and even pitched well in Game 4 of the World Series that year. However, that season wasn’t without the typical trips to the injured list for Hill. He landed on the IL twice in the first two months that season. Last season with the Dodgers he was 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 13 starts. When he’s healthy and he pitches he’s a great pitcher who has just never reached his full potential because of the injury history. Add in the fact he has a tendency to get blisters and he turns 40 before the season starts and this may not be the kind of player you want to roster unless you get him at a great value.
The pitching motion is an unnatural movement for the body. It’s no surprise that many pitchers, at one point in their career, have undergone Tommy John Surgery. Sure, there are the outliers that have avoided it throughout their career, but TJS is just a part of the MLB culture at this point. You may have a pitcher get shut down with forearm or elbow strains. That’s typically never a good sign and ultimately might lead to surgery. So yes, it is a gamble when you invest in starting pitchers but everybody in your league will be taking that risk. A pitcher’s elbow is similar to a running back’s knee. You’ll be investing a lot in these guys and even the most natural motion could result in the end of a player’s season.
When to Draft Your First Starting Pitcher
If giving a general answer, no later than round three to be honest. The current pitchers listed in Fantasy Alarm's Preseason Starting Pitcher Rankings have nine players in the top tier (Jacob deGrom , Gerrit Cole , Justin Verlander , Max Scherzer , Jack Flaherty , Stephen Strasburg , Walker Buehler , Mike Clevinger , and Luis Castillo ). Cole and possibly deGrom are going to cost you a first-round pick. And if you really want one of those players, by all means go get your guy. However, there are some nice value options. Luis Castillo is going as the 44th player off the board in the fourth-fifth round of drafts depending on the size of the league. Chris Sale and Blake Snell , two other SP1 candidates, are going earlier than Castillo. Grabbing an ace with one of your first three picks still allows you to get a couple of heavy hitters on offense.
Drafting your next few pitchers may be a little difficult depending on how many pitchers you can roster and how many starts you have each week. Again, knowing your league’s rules is a must. However, grabbing your second pitcher with your fifth pick isn’t a terrible idea. If you went with two pitchers early on you don’t need to worry about spending your fifth-round selection on an arm. But current ADP reports have players like Zack Greinke , Lucas Giolito , and Chris Paddack going in the fifth round or later. Tyler Glasnow , Trevor Bauer , Corey Kluber , James Paxton , and Madison Bumgarner are going in the seventh round or later. There’s a little more risk with these players, but that’s the nature of the game. By the end of round eight you should have three starters you feel good about.
As a quick note, in rotisserie leagues you can put more emphasis on quality arms and investing in them earlier. You’re rewarded more for ERA, WHIP, and ratio categories in those formats so it’s wiser to form a really good pitching rotation. In points leagues, while still encouraged to get some studs as mentioned earlier, you’ll want volume and more starts in that format as well through two-start pitchers and streaming pitchers. Again, be on the lookout for the Points League article if that’s your forte.
It’s also worth noting, this is the MLB Draft. Guide. You don’t need to consider this the letter of the law. It’s advised to make sure you get an Ace pitcher, but if an offensive piece is falling to you, don’t pass him up. Go with the best player available and come back around for your pitcher a pick or two later. And once you find yourself set with four-to-six reliable starters you can take some late-round fliers on guys like Andrew Heaney , Anthony DeSclafani , Jon Gray , Ross Stripling , and maybe Michael Kopech (I’m severely biased towards Kopech). Even if these late-round pitchers don’t necessarily pan out you will work waivers and possibly stream starters throughout each week. We’ll have you covered on which pitchers to look at through various resources such as the Weekly Planner, the bi-weekly Waiver Wire article, the Streaming Starting Pitchers article, and the weekly Two-Start Pitchers article as well.
We’ll be starting up the Mock Draft Army within the next couple weeks to really gear up the fantasy baseball draft prep. Be sure to follow Andy Spiteri on Twitter (@gasdoc_spit) for updates on the MDA as well as when the weekly schedule will drop. You can draft with our own experts each week, ask questions, and practice different strategies for drafting starting pitchers. Best of luck, FANation!