Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the most important research items for fantasy football players going into the draft. Knowing when players are going in most drafts gives you a leg up on your league. Without using the words to define it in the definition ADP is where players are going in drafts…on average. Look at that, couldn’t even define it without two of the words. But the answer is in the name. ADP for David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell? Those guys are typically top-3 in every draft. But you don’t need to look at an ADP report to know that those two guys are going to go early in the first round.

Fantasy Alarm’s own Justin Vreeland (@JustinVreeland) does a fantastic weekly report on ADP leading up to your drafts. It’s highly recommended that you take a look at those pieces to get a feel of where you can find value, which just so happens to be a fantastic segue to the first topic…

Looking for Value

You’ll never win your league based on the first 6 picks of your draft. Football is a physical game and players are going to get hurt. You can lose your league in your first 6 picks if players underperform, but the first 6 picks won’t define your team. Le’Veon Bell missed the first 3 games a couple seasons ago and was still being taken in the first round. Even when it’s a guarantee that the best player in the league might miss time, he still went pretty high.

Finding value late in your draft is a key part to winning your league. Late-round value, working waivers, and making trades during the season are what win your league. The fantasy players that throw in the towel after losing their 2 best players to injury don’t deserve to win based on quitting alone. So where is the value?

 

(This paragraph was updated on 8/27) Take a look at the Cowboys backfield. Ezekiel Elliott is facing a six-game suspension with a hearing set during the final week of August. Zeke was being drafted as the third RB off the board, but now he's falling a couple rounds in mock drafts. Elliott’s backup, Darren McFadden, has seen his ADP rise due to the suspension and his presumed workload while Elliott is out. If you take Zeke with your second or third round pick and McFadden with your seventh or eighth round selection, that gives you the RB1 in the Cowboys offense (which has a great offensive line) for the entire season. 

The late rounds are meant for finding value as well as drafting “boom or bust” picks. Jacquizz Rodgers is the perfect example. He’s currently going as the 48th running back off the board in PPR formats and he has the potential to be a Top 12 fantasy running back in Weeks 1-3. The Bucs haven’t even committed to giving Martin his job back once he comes back from suspension so Rodgers could be an even bigger value. Corey Davis, Kareem Hunt, Duke Johnson, Tyrell Williams, John Brown, Jamaal Charles, and Thomas Rawls are all players being drafted outside the Top 100 that could pay off big dividends if taken late. WR’s like Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Cameron Meredith can be had VERY late and have a ton of upside in their respective offenses. Meredith, especially, could be getting a lot of garbage time points late in games since the Bears defense isn’t great and Chicago could be playing from behind quite a bit.

Finding the Bad Value

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are also players going way too high. Personally Melvin Gordon, Brandin Cooks, and Marshawn Lynch (all going in the Top 40) are being drafted too early. Gordon’s YPC isn’t great and the Chargers again have offensive line concerns after losing Forrest Lamp. Brandin Cooks is in an offense that has too many mouths to feed, and Marshawn Lynch hasn’t looked good playing football since 2014. It’s not to say that these players can’t be good. But they’re going in the 3rd-4th round, with a lot of concerns. 

Take a look at one position in particular: Tight End is a position where you can probably be one of the last players in your league to take a tight end. 2 of the Top 3 Tight Ends (Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed) are very injury prone and both are going in the Top 50 picks in PPR drafts. Last year’s #1 tight end averaged just 14.6 points per game in PPR scoring in Weeks 1-16. And that was a career year for Kelce and he scored only 4 Touchdowns. 14.6 points per game is very productive and there’s no reason to complain about that. But that was the #1 TE. There were 21 WR’s and RB’s that gave you that value last year and the tight end position has a lot of variance in terms of scoring on a week-to-week basis.

Kyle Rudolph came on strong toward the end of last season. Part of his production was based on his targets and catches, but he’s being drafted after an aging Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham (who didn’t catch a single touchdown on the road). In some drafts he’s even going after Delanie Walker who will likely lose targets to Eric Decker and Corey Davis.

Tight End is such a crapshoot. For a few years the theory was “If you don’t get Gronk, just wait on the position.” But even taking Gronk at this point has certain risk especially because he’s a 2nd round pick this year. If you wait on TE you can find solace in the fact that you might be available to find one on waivers or at the very worst end up streaming at the position.  Now to tip off fantasy players for a TE to look for, target Eric Ebron. In each of his first 3 seasons he’s seen an increase in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. His Catch% has improved each year as well. Part of Ebron’s lack of a breakout so far is that he hasn’t stayed healthy. Sure Gronk and Reed have injury concerns, but Ebron can be taken in Round 11. This lets you build a solid team with RB’s and WR’s. Likewise you can also take Jason Witten, Hunter Henry, and Austin Hooper incredibly late in your league and still feel okay about your tight end.

Create Tiers

This is something that needs to be recommended to all fantasy players going into their draft. Currently Fantasy Alarm has its own-tiered system set up on the rankings page. Here you can see how the top QB’s, RB’s, WR’s are all tiered into groups. Even within tiers you can find value. For example, you can easily make the argument that Isaiah Crowell could be a Tier 2 player (currently he’s at the top of Tier 3). He’s improved on his numbers each year he’s been in the league and he has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Likewise Jay Ajayi is at the top of Tier 2 after a breakout season in Miami last year. Jay Ajayi is currently going late in the 2nd round (roughly 18th overall). Isaiah Crowell is going roughly 20 picks later (38th overall) and is arguably in that same tier. To go off on another tangent, Mike Gillislee could be a viable RB2 this year and he’s in the 5th tier of running backs and can be had in the 5th or 6th rounds. Likewise, Adrian Peterson is listed at the bottom of Tier 3 and he’s going a few picks after Gillislee and he’s another viable RB2 option. This is how you find value amongst tiers.

Furthermore, you could even get an entire team’s backfield based on tiers and late-round value. The Seahawks have an awful offensive line. It’s potentially the worst in the league. They’ve invested so much money in Russell Wilson and the defense that they’ve left themselves handcuffed with the O-Line. But that still shouldn’t deter you from targeting their running backs after the early rounds. Like Dallas, this is a backfield you can target that won’t be too costly. Eddie Lacy is a little slimmed down thanks to an incentive system and he’s currently the 73rd player off the board (RB28). However, you can also handcuff Thomas Rawls at 140th overall (RB50). Will either of these guys be a RB1? Doubtful. But the Seahawks want to get back to being a run first team. Drafting these two gives you the entire Seattle backfield for a 6th round pick and a 12th round pick roughly. It’s risky, but if you go the route of Zero-RB or don’t take a 2nd RB until Lacy then this is a draft strategy that could pay off.

Nothing is TOO Crazy

It’s worth prefacing this sub-section by saying, yes taking a Kicker or Defense with your first round pick is too crazy. Is it too crazy to take LeSean McCoy with a Top 5 pick? Or Tom Brady in the 1st round? Or Michael Thomas ahead of Mike Evans? No. Those ideas aren’t crazy. Go with what you prefer if you like certain players in the early rounds. It’s your team, you make the choices.

If it’s not crazy to make early round decisions such as that then it’s not crazy to reach for players in the later rounds. In Last Year's "Navigating ADP" Article Howard Bender broke down that “ADP is a guideline, not the gospel.” If you like a certain player way ahead of his ADP go and get him. It’s not crazy to reach a round or two early to get a player you really like. Get a feel with ADP, but don’t have a sheet highlighting ADP’s of all your favorite players assuming that’s where you can get them. Better yet, have a list of your favorite players and have a note next to each name where you would want to take them. It’s okay to draft players a little before their ADP so you’re the guy pissing other owners off for sniping the value plays.

On a side note, if you’re drafting toward the front or back end of your draft you should almost disregard ADP when it comes to draft day. Because you have two picks so close together you’ll end up reaching on some players if you have a feeling they won’t be coming back to after you pick. For example, if you really like Gronk and you have the 12th and 13th picks in a 12-team league, you should take him with that 13th overall pick because he won’t be making it back to you for your 3rd and 4th round picks.

Get in on the Mock Draft Army

In closing, ADP reports are indeed somewhat flawed. A lot of times when you log into a mock draft people will start logging out and autodrafting after Round 7 or 8. That doesn’t give you a great measure of ADP. This is why Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army is fantastic. If you sign up and get in on a mock draft you stay until the end and everyone is accounted for. There aren’t any computers that are drafting so you can see which players are actually falling late and, which players are going earlier than their ADP. So to get in on the Mock Draft Army shoot Howard an e-mail (mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com) to get added to the mailing list. Best of luck this year, and Happy Mocking!