NASCAR DFS Playbook: Tennessee Lottery 250

Yesterday’s approach to the Truck series Playbook was an absolute disaster… For me at least. I lost a cool $100. Which I’m not afraid to admit. I’ve had high’s where I hit big at Martinsville and Sonoma for the Cup series and then there are just nights like last night where I had an awful read and was honestly surprised John Hunter Nemechek didn’t finish in the top five. And I had zero exposure to Ryan Preece. That’s my own damn fault. 

But today presents another race. One of the big takeaways from last night was the lack of cautions. I did observe some Racing-Reference data that showed over a decade ago we didn’t see too many cautions. Maybe three-to-five for about 15-20 laps. But I thought with the lack of rubber on the track we may have seen more tire wear (which we kind of did) and potentially more carnage. But that wasn’t the case. Do I expect more wrecks in Xfinity? I think so, but again I could be wrong.

Saturday’s race is scheduled for 188 laps (130+ dominator points) broken into 45-45-98 segments. Stage three is going to be crucial for green flag pit stops if we have any. And also, this is another Kyle Busch race. However, it could be our last Kyle Busch race if he wins today. That would signal 100 career Xfinity series wins and he’s said he would no longer race in the series, but take that with a grain of salt (because he's scheduled for two more Xfinity races in 2021 after all). When Joe Gibbs comes asking you to drive, you’re hard pressed to say no. Qualifying will be around 12:35pm ET and I’ll post updates in here and in the Discord for any drivers I’m adding exposure to. Hopefully we don’t get too much chalk like yesterday, but we shall see what happens. Below are the results from yesterday’s practice session.

Driver Pool

Kyle Busch ($14,500) – Get exposure. Simple as that. He eats up dominator points. He’s won both Xfinity races he’s competed in this year. He’s going for #100. He was fast at practice. He’s good at this stuff. Just play him.

Justin Allgaier ($10,400) – If I’m going heavy on Kyle Busch then I’ll make a few pivots to Austin Cindric and A.J. Allmendinger given their success on 1.5-mile tracks. However, with Kyle Busch slates we need to be mindful of ownership and starting spots. I like Allgaier quite a bit today. He won Atlanta and Darlington, two tracks that account for tire wear. He also finished third at Dover (a track he won at in 2020), which has a similar surface to Nasvhille, and he was second last week at Texas. He’s also raced here before, but it was a decade ago so I won’t put too much weight into that. I hope we get a little PD from Allgaier with the hope he shows up and gets another top three or possibly wins and ruins Kyle Busch’s party. Update: I love Allgaier starting P11 but so might a bunch of other people unfortunately.

Tyler Reddick ($9,700) – He didn’t show the greatest speed at practice, but keep in mind he could have simply been trying to get a feel for the track. We’ve seen him pilot this ride to a pair of top ten finishes and he’s under $10K today. He’s hit 50+ points on DraftKings in three of his four Xfinity races this year so exposure will boil down to where he qualifies because I don’t have a ton of confidence he collects any dominator points. Update: I’m going to lay off Reddick a little bit. He qualified poorly and will likely be popular for players looking to target PD. I’m changing my position and looking to be lighter than the field.

Harrison Burton ($9,500) – Casual players might look at his last two results and shy away, but Burton was second-fastest in yesterday’s practice. If Tom and Gaye Busch had decided they were content with one son named Kurt and didn’t have any further children, then Burton would’ve been fastest in practice yesterday. He’s looked good on tire wear tracks this year and the JGR cars should be fast. For that reason, I also like Daniel Hemric a bit. Pockrass picked him to win (I don’t know why), but we’ll need Hemric and Burton to offer a little PD for us. Hemric and Burton were both top four in practice yesterday.

Update: Josh Berry ($9,000) – Berry is added to the Playbook given his starting spot (P22) and he’s in the 8-car so we know the equipment is good.

Michael Annett ($8,100) – This one is easy. You don’t play him if he’s starting inside the top ten. You can play him if he’s starting outside the top 15. If he’s starting P10-P15 you can sprinkle him into some lineups. He was not great in practice yesterday, but he has a ton of experience and despite yesterday’s display he can still navigate his way to his fifth seventh-place finish of the season. Update: Annett qualified poorly (P21) so he’s in play for cash games and GPP’s although his runs haven’t looked great this weekend. Still, he’s experienced. A top 12 gives him 5X value.

Brett Moffit ($7,800) – Based on the practice speed and where he normally qualifies, Moffitt will likely start just inside the top 20 and he easily has top 15 upside, maybe even top 12 upside. Let’s say he qualifies 18th and finishes 12th, that would give him 37 points on DraftKings. Not quite 5X value, but still solid especially if you pair him with the right dom. And if he qualifies further back then he’ll offer even more PD. He’s been solid and fairly reliable most of the season. Update: Sure enough, Moffitt qualified 18th.

Update: Riley Herbst ($7,600) – Herbst qualified poorly (P20) but had top ten practice speeds. That alone makes him an intriguing PD play today, but a popular one at that. Let’s remember he has struggled in this car but the PD is so tempting.

Ryan Sieg ($7,300) – If he can just run a clean race then he has upside. He’s so difficult to play in Cash games because of the volatility. He posted the tenth-fastest single-lap in practice and he was top 15 in five-lap runs. If he can grab another top ten then we’re getting value. My issue with Sieg is that his team sometimes likes to gamble on pit road for track position. And if he’s out in front on old tires while everyone else is on fresh ones then he could wreck himself and some of his co-workers.

Jeremy Clements ($6,900) – Clements is the nice play of the week, and in this range you’ll be pulling your hair out deciding between him and Brandon Brown. Clements wasn’t great in practice, but he gets the most out of his equipment, as does Brown. I don’t want either qualifying too far back because people will flock to roster them. I’d prefer if they start in the P15-P18 range, maybe even a little higher. Update: The decision breaks down like this, both Brown and Clements are in play for GPP’s, but Clements is the preferred Cash game option on Saturday based on the qualifying order.

Tommy Joe Martins ($6,300) – Another track, another DFS slate TJM is in play as a value option. He’s always a solid play on paper depending on where he starts, but the results aren’t always there. With that said, given the speed he showed yesterday in practice, I’m willing to play him as long as he doesn’t qualify in the top 12. We need a little PD out of him, but his price is helpful enough and he’ll be in a bunch of lineups where Kyle Busch is the presumed dominator.

Jade Buford ($5,500) – Buford’s on a solid run lately and if my prediction from earlier is wrong about the increased amount of cautions, then that helps Jade. Buford is rolling with four straight finishes in the top 17 and he flashed top 25 speed in practice. That’s not great, but at this price tag we don’t need much for him to hit value and he’s averaging 31.25 DK points over his last four races on a few different track styles. Update: Jade is strictly a GPP play now. He qualified inside the top ten with an impressive qualifying run. Ownership will be much lighter on him but restrict exposure to just GPP’s.

Update: Alex Labbe ($5,400) – Labbe made contact with the wall. Luckily Xfinity runs composite bodies so the damage was minimal and hardly noticeable on the broadcast. He’s starting P29 and while his single-lap speed wasn’t great his car got better in practice on the slightly longer runs. He’ll probably be popular in cash and GPP lineups building with Kyle Busch so be disciplined.

Kyle Weatherman ($4,700) – I don’t love Weatherman today, but I will acknowledge that it’s a Kyle Busch race and you likely need at least one driver in this range. Assuming he qualifies outside the top 30, he has shown in four of his last six races to move up and finish 26th or better. Some people may also look at Timmy Hill in this range and I’ll throw him into one lineup, but I just feel slightly better about Weatherman if I have to go this low.

Qualifying Order

Core Drivers