The conditions for today’s race are an absolute mess. It’ll be fun to watch but certainly frustrating for DFS. It’s going to rain all day and the track conditions are constantly changing. With that said, I’m still playing my single-entry cash contests but that’s because they’re full and I can’t withdraw. But it’s definitely a week to probably play lighter and maybe target just GPP’s. Similar to the Truck Playbook I’ve decided to not go with core plays this week simply because it’s just too risky given the track conditions and I’m anticipating plenty of cautions for both the Truck and Xfinity races.
The Xfinity race will have 46 laps. So, we don’t have a ton of dominator points to go around and gauging fastest laps will be even harder given the conditions. On top of the weather, the new track, and everything else that seems to be going wrong we have Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer stepping in to race COTA at the Xfinity level. I’ll post the practice times below, but similar to the truck race these don’t matter too much at the moment.
Driver Pool
This almost feels like a superspeedway race because everyone could be in play. But I’ll highlight my favorites below.
Kyle Busch ($10,800) – We’re getting Busch at a discount because of the lack of laps. Busch is treating this as practice for Sunday’s Cup series race and he’s getting as much practice as he can. That being said, he’s in the Star Car for JGR and making his Xfinity series debut. He’s in elite equipment against weaker competition in comparison to the Cup series. You’re not necessarily looking for 5X value, although he could still hit that. With road courses you’re just trying to build a lineup based on position differential and finishing position.
Austin Cindric ($10,700) – Honestly not too sure how much exposure I’ll get to Cindric. He’s a great road ringer. He’s won at DRC and Mid-Ohio, he ran well at the Roval, grabbed a top five last year at Indy’s Road Course, and he’s won at Watkins Glen. The pedigree is there for him but the competition is stiff this week with so many Cup Series drivers coming down to get practice on the track. Qualifying will depend on how much exposure I get on him.
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,400) – Road Ringer Dinger. Dinger’s won at the Roval, Mid-Ohio, and at Road America. If the Cup drivers weren’t in this race today, Dinger and Cindric would easily be the class of the field. He’s also using this mostly as practice for tomorrow’s Cup series race but he’s still racing for points and wants another win on his 2021 resume.
Kevin Harvick ($9,900) – I don’t really think Harvick gives a s*** about this race. He just wants as much practice as possible to get a feel for the track. Could he prove me wrong, run well, and try to win? Sure. But the equipment isn’t great but he’s a good enough driver where he can get the most out of it. For what it’s worth, he ran middle-of-the-pack in practice and currently in the Cup series practice, that will have similar conditions to this Xfinity race, he’s running outside the top 25. I’ll maybe use him in two lineups and call it a day.
Daniel Hemric ($9,500) – He’s still seeking out his first career win and it would be poetry if it came on a track NASCAR is running for the first time as well as in crappy conditions. He had some issues to start yesterday’s practice as he sat in the garage for a hot minute. However, when he hit the track he was fast as he posted the second-fastest practice lap. Now the conditions are much different today, but assuming everyone pays for the Cup series guys we’ll get Hemric at low ownership. He burned me last week, but I’m ready to get hurt again. I’ll have him in maybe four-to-five lineups.
Tyler Reddick ($8,500) – He’s had decent success on road courses at the Xfinity level, just hasn’t grabbed a win. I’m not too concerned about the equipment, I’m more concerned about the weather. He and Cole Custer are kind of the same driver today, but I’m going to throw a little more exposure to Reddick.
Andy Lally ($8,300) – Lally should be a popular play this week regardless of where he’s starting. If you buy into Matt’s theory about drivers in the booth, then Lally fits that narrative as he’ll be calling the Truck series race. But aside from that he’s a road course specialist as he grabbed a pair of top five finishes at DRC and Road America. He also has experience running at COTA so while he’s not a full-time driver he probably has the most experience here out of the field.
Miguel Paludo ($8,200) – Paludo has plenty of road course experience. I wasn’t on him back in February at DRC and that bit me in the ass. I won’t make the same mistake twice. He’ll be in JR Motorsports equipment and he had a top 20 lap on Friday. Regardless of where he’s starting I’ll mix him into some GPP lineups.
Alex Labbe ($7,800) – Labbe was very impressive in yesterday’s practice session and he’s historically much better on road courses than tracks that just require turning left. In three races at the Roval, Labbe has finished fourth, sixth, and 13th. He grabbed a top ten last year at Indy’s Road Course, and he has a top ten at Mid-Ohio. His driver averages profile significantly favors road courses so fire him up this week.
Jeremy Clements ($6,900) – Clements’ lone Xfinity win came on a road course (Road America) and in general he’s better on road courses. He’s on a small team, but he tends to get the most out of his equipment. The price is pretty flexible for a driver that’s had solid success on courses and if he offers PD he’s viable in Cash games and GPP’s.
Myatt Snider ($6,700) – The price is just too cheap. The resume at road courses is limited but he’s had decent performances and if he turns into a PD play for us today then great. But he’s normally $1,000 more and the equipment is still very good.
Boris Said ($6,500) – It really depends on where he starts. But a lot of casual players might go down to Said based on knowing he exclusively runs road courses. I will likely be much lighter than the field because he was not the most crisp in practice and I’m not wild about the equipment in the 13-car. I’m only mentioning him because I know if I didn’t, I’d get asked about it. But I honestly think there are better plays worth paying up for.
Brett Moffitt ($5,700) – Look I have been way off Moffitt all year and I’m dumb for that. However, DraftKings is even dumber because he’s only $5,700 today. I don’t care where he starts, you probably need to get exposure here. This is one of, if not, the best “value” plays on the slate. He’s normally $2,000 more, sometimes $3,000 more. He has plenty of top 20 finishes on the season and a few top ten finishes as well. This price tag is truly mind numbing. Depending on where he starts he only needs to finish 15th (without accounting for positive or negative PD) to return 5X value.
Other Drivers To Consider: Ross Chastain will be viable in the 07-car as he replaces Joe Graf. DraftKings just hasn’t added Chastain at the time of this writing. Spencer Pumpelly is a guy with plenty of experience on road courses and he’s just $6,400. He looked pretty comfortable during Friday’s practice. Not to mention he pulled one of the fastest laps in qualifying so that should pique your interest. Timmy Hill is a fine salary saving driver as well. I’ll mix him into some GPP builds. Stephen Leicht and Kris Wright are probably the dirt cheap options today but I pray you don’t have to go down that far. Leicht maybe sneaks into the top 20-25 and he should qualify poorly. He typically gets moved into better equipment for road courses and he’ll slide into the 61-car on Sunday. Wright has experience running road courses and I believe he ran 24 Hours at Daytona previously. Again, I’m trying to avoid dumpster diving to Leicht and Wright but if you feel so inclined, by all means go ahead.
UPDATE FOLLOWING QUALIFYING
Given what we saw from qualifying, Daniel Hemric, Michael Annett, Noah Gragson, and Riley Herbst are all in play given their starting spots. I'd rank them Gragson, Hemric, Annett, Herbst. They all have plenty of PD upside for this race and they'll likely be chalky as well.