NASCAR DFS: Cook Out 250 Playbook

It’s time to re-acquaint ourselves with the Xfinity series. It’s been three weeks since we’ve seen these cars on the track, but there’s no better track to dive back into the NASCAR DFS scene than Martinsville. I completely whiffed and forgot this race was Friday so luckily I caught wind of the schedule, and here we are! We’re at the Paperclip on Friday. A short, very flat, half-mile track with tight corners. We actually don’t have a ton of Xfinity data to pull for Martinsville. Last year’s playoff race was the first time Xfinity ran at Martinsville in quite a few years. But we do have comparable tracks that we can pull data from like Phoenix, Richmond, and Dover (to an extent). I’m looking closely at the flat track races from this year and last year post-COVID hiatus. We’re still not getting practice and qualifying so I’m looking strictly at the cars that have run well at these tracks in a “show up and drive” format.

This race gets underway Friday night just after 8:00pm ET so it’s a nice way to kick off the weekend as NASCAR is doing everything it can to not compete for ratings with the PGA, hence why they’re running a pair of night races. We have 250 laps on tap for tomorrow which means we have 175 dominator points available, by far the most we’ve had so far this season. With that said you’ll likely need to land on the two biggest dominators in this race and then look for drivers offering position differential. My biggest fear with short tracks is that it’s very easy to fall multiple laps down if you’re starting closer to the rear. Cars in bad equipment will fall multiple laps down. Track position is everything here. If you have access to the NASCAR package over on Wager Alarm, Matt mentions cars starting in the top 10-12 having a relatively safe floor for DFS. So I’m going to mention a few cheap drivers to look at, but I’m hoping I don’t have to look at too many value plays starting near the rear. Teams will have four sets of tires and the stages will be broken up into 60-60-130 segments with a competition caution following lap 25.

Driver Pool

A.J. Allmendinger ($11,900; Starting P3) He absolutely needs dominator points and if I’m being truthful, if drafting him, you’re expecting more than just 5X value with so many dominator points on the table. But that’s the case with most dominator candidates here. It’s possible we see a couple drivers exceed 75 points on DK. Starting P3 gives him great track position. He started P36 in last Fall’s playoff race and managed to lead 68 laps and have 32 fastest laps before ultimately finishing outside the top 20. A win and 13 dominator points will return 5X value, but he’ll need 25 dominator points with a win to return 6X value. He can do that, sure, but roster theory may not make too much sense trying to pair Dinger with another top four driver in pricing because it’ll restrict your salary flexibility and if one of those drivers doesn’t get dominator points they will struggle to hit value.

Austin Cindric ($11,500; Starting P6) He kicked everyone’s ass at Phoenix almost a month ago. He led 119 laps, had 48 fastest laps and prior to the race at Atlanta, he was routinely hitting 50+ DK points. He led 42 laps with 17 fastest laps at Martinsville last Fall. If you want to compare road courses to “flat” tracks, then he fits that mold as well. Either way, Cindric is in play per usual.

Ty Gibbs ($10,500; Starting P16) He’s back in the Star Car for Joe Gibbs Racing and he’s looked absolutely amazing in both races he’s run at Xfinity. He won the Daytona Road Course race a couple months back and he finishes second at Phoenix and in both races he started outside the top 15. He’s finally priced up, but even $10,500 may still be too cheap based on what we’ve seen from him this year. The kid just shows up and races and he’s proven he’s a great driver and not just relying on his last name. He will need some dominator points, but not as many as the guys priced above him. Gibbs has the luxury of some PD on his side. A top three finish will get 5X value. But if he gets a top five finish (which is obviously in play) he’ll need some fastest laps. Luckily there are plenty available. The Star Car has arguably been JGR’s best ride at Xfinity and Ty Gibbs will contend at the Paperclip.

Justin Allgaier ($10,200; Starting P2) Allgaier’s going to either break the slate or seriously rub some people the wrong way. With that said, I’ll have about 20-30% exposure across my 20-ish lineups. I want exposure because he’s great on flat tracks. AND in his last three races before Xfinity’s break he put up at least 54 points in three straight and this is the cheapest he’s been in his last four races. He’s coming off a win at Atlanta, he finished second at Martinsville last Fall, he swept both Richmond races last year, and he won one of the races at Dover. Plus he finished fifth in the championship race at Phoenix last year. So, with that said, he shows up on flat tracks. Even at Phoenix last month, he started P12 and finished eighth but led 32 laps with 34 fastest laps. It’s rare to see more fast laps than laps led. He’s also on the front row so he has track position.

Brandon Jones ($9,900; Starting P24) Talk about variance, that’s all we’ve had with Jones this year. He has three finishes inside the top five, and three finishes outside the top 30. He’s frustrating, sure, but he’s offering PD and the price tag isn’t awful given his upside. If he finishes ninth he’s hitting 5X value. That’s where he finished this race last Halloween and he followed that up finishing third at Phoenix in the championship race. He went into the Xfinity break on a cold streak and wants to get back to solid racing. He did okay on flat tracks last year, but you’re mostly looking at him for the PD and just hoping for a clean race. He has top five upside and just needs a top ten to help us out.

Harrison Burton ($9,300; Starting P1) It hasn’t been the campaign I expected for Burton, but he’s had a decent start to the 2021 season. In five of six races he’s finished 12^th or better. He won this race last Fall with 81 laps led and 53 fastest laps. He has a decent history at other flat tracks and the price tag works well with other potential dominators. He’s only eligible in GPP’s given the fact that he’s on the pole so no real need to consider him in Cash games.

Brett Moffitt ($9,000; Starting P27) Moffitt, like Jones, offers PD and he may come with less ownership based on the equipment they’re both in. Moffitt has clearly flashed top ten upside and he started 20^th at Phoenix and finished ninth not too long ago. A top 12 will get him 5X value, and with DK’s small bonus for a top ten, he hits 5.6X value if he finishes tenth.

Riley Herbst ($8,200; Starting P7) I’ll get a few shares of Herbst because the price tag is pretty friendly for the equipment he’s in. He’s not Chase Briscoe, and he’s had his share of either bad decisions or bad luck in the 98-car. Either way, I can’t imagine there’s a ton of ownership on him. He needs 41 points for 5X value which means he just needs to move up two spots and finish fifth. He wasn’t awful on the comparable tracks last year. In JGR equipment he finished sixth at Martinsville, 11^th at the Phoenix championship race, and he logged top tens at both Dover races, the first Richmond race, and the Spring Phoenix race from last year. I wouldn’t play him in Cash, but I like him as a low-owned GPP play.

Josh Berry ($8,000; Starting P29) Brandon Jones, Brett Moffitt, and Josh Berry will be the popular mid-range plays. Berry’s luster wore off prior to the break as he finished outside the top 30 in two races. But he’s still in respectable JRM equipment and this is the most friendly starting spot he’s had all year and for whatever reason DK priced him poorly. He needs to finish 16^th to return 5X value. He can do it, but I’m keeping ownership in check here in the event the bad luck from a few weeks ago carries over.

JJ Yeley ($7,300; Starting P33) DraftKings continues to whiff on this price tag. Yeley’s raced twice at the Xfinity level in 2021 and both races he started outside the top 30 and he managed to finish 13^th. He only needs a Top 20 for 5X value and if he manages another “Unlucky 13” finish then he’ll be returning 6.8X value. Consider that his ceiling, but a Top 20 is very well within reach. He finished 14^th in this race last Fall.

Brandon Brown ($7,000; Starting P19) Given the equipment and lack of financial support compared to other teams, Brandon Brown is off to a fantastic start this year. In six races this year he has four finishes in the top 11 including a third-place finish at Phoenix. Additionally, he had a solid top 20 car last season with a pair of 12^th-place finishes at Phoenix and top 20’s at Dover, Richmond, and Martinsville and he did well on the road courses. He needs 35 points for 5X value which is well within reach. If you buy into my narrative you don’t like drivers starting at the rear due to possibly being lapped early on, then Brown is a cheaper option you can go to that can do well to hold his position.

Gray Gaulding ($5,800; Starting P39) We don’t have the greatest sample size to go off of with Gauling for this race. He started 30^th in this race in the Fall and finished 35^th. Womp Womp. But he’s affordable and offers a ton of PD. However, keep in mind he’s not in the best equipment and he’s starting far enough back where he could be lapped early on. I’ll still get some exposure though because even if he gets lapped, a 26^th-place finish returns 5X value. Is he my favorite play? No, but if Gaulding pushes himself to a good finish it’ll be his own doing and not his ride.

Timmy Hill ($4,700; Starting P20) If we need to dumpster dive Friday night, Timmy Hill can be on our radar. If he holds his spot he’s returning value. Anything extra and that’s gravy. We traditionally only look at Hill on superspeedways and short tracks. We’d prefer him at Bristol, but he did finish 17^th here last Fall after starting 34^th and he finished 14^th at Phoenix last month.

Other Drivers to Consider: I think I’m pretty content with the drivers I mentioned above. However, if targeting two-to-three dominators you may need some more value options. Jeremy Clements is worth a look in GPP’s. If you look at his resume over the past year he’s been a top 20 driver at short/flat tracks. I don’t like where he’s starting because he really needs a top ten for value. He most certainly can get there but it wouldn’t surprise me if he was more of a top 15 car this weekend, rather than top ten. I’ll look at Tommy Joe Martins once again, just because I can never quit him. He’s starting P17 which is right about where he’s ran all year. A top 15 will get him pretty close to value and he’s shown he can get pretty close to that. Blaine Perkins is a driver that’s been tough to read. He had a top 20 car at Phoenix last month and we’ve seen Tyler Reddick look impressive in this same car. The results just haven’t been there for Perkins in his two races. But if he can manage a Top 25 finish he’s hitting 5X value and he can get up there even if he falls a few laps down. Bayley Currey is the cheapest driver in the field and if you need a punt, the he can be looked at in GPP’s. He managed to pull off a top ten at Phoenix last month, and he finished 15^th in last year’s Championship race at Phoenix. He’s the cheapest driver in the field who can get 6X value if he can just finish 20^th.

Core Drivers