So Thursday night several of the FA contributors got together (on the internet) for our annual mock draft for the draft guide. To no surprise it look longer than any Mock Draft Army ever would so kudos to our readers! Check out the full draft board here!
Rick Wolf: Playing Smart in the Fantasy Alarm Draft
“It is always good to play SMART and that is what I did tonight. Drafting 3 RBs in the first four rounds with McCoy, McCaffery and Joe Mixon to go with super stud Michael Thomas. Then the rest of the draft, I tried to figure out where to take a QB and kept waiting. Decided to wait for Cam Newton or Big Ben. SNIPED. Then wait for Jameis Winston or Derek Carr. SNIPED. Now I can surely wait…SNIPED. So that is the disappointment. Tyrod Taylor was all that was left. Grabbed Jeremy Hill as a handcuff and loaded with number one or number two WRs the whole rest of the way. Locked in Delanie Walker who is a stud at TE. The rest is gravy and a sturdy, but unspectacular draft.”
My Take: I’m a pretty big fan of Rick’s team. Sure he took 2 rookie running backs in his first 4 picks, but in a PPR-mock draft those two guys have upside in this moment. I was also a pretty big fan of the first 3 WR’s he grabbed as well: Michael Thomas, Golden Tate, and Willie Snead. Thomas is a great WR1 option and the departure of Brandin Cooks makes it seem like the Saints are very confident in him going forward as their top receiver and he could possibly improve this season. Willie Snead is a guy who could definitely benefit from Cooks’ departure, as it’ll open up some targets for him. Golden Tate is also a great WR2 in Detroit’s offense. According to Pro Football Focus no WR has forced more missed tackles per reception (0.28) than Tate since 2012. Rick may not be as excited about Tyrod Taylor, but he has pretty solid depth at every other position and Taylor plays behind one of the best O-Lines in the league that gives him plenty of time to make plays. Not a bad QB to grab in the 14th round.
Unfortunately for Rick, Justin Vreeland didn’t feel as good about Wolf’s team.
Justin Vreeland: “Wolf loaded up on RB's early going with three in his first four picks. Normally a good strategy, but two of them are rookies who will be competing for touches. Seems a bit risky to bank on both of them. It’s a move that could potentially pan out, but could also lead to the downfall of his team. He also rolls with Tyrod Taylor as his one and only QB which while not terrible, isn’t going to get you points in high numbers. “
Vreeland was pretty pleased with his unit overall.
Vreeland (again): “Split the first two picks with one RB and one WR, keeping options open as the draft progresses. Loved rounds 3/4 adding an elite TE in Reed with Gronk and Kelce already off the board, and getting Rodgers at #37 was something I was happy with. Of course having just 1 RB and 1 WR after four rounds left me a bit worrisome, and I was hoping/needing for Mike Gillislee to be available with my next pick, as it turned out he was. Also picked up Emmanuel Sanders here, with three straight seasons of 75+, 1000+, and 5+ this was someone I was perfectly okay with being my WR2 in a 12-team PPR. I loved getting Bilal Powell at #85 and I believe he will be the main man for the Jets sooner rather than later. Getting the Seahawks D at #157 after watching the Broncos D come off the board at #119 felt like a steal. Overall I was very pleased with this draft (so was the grading system) and would be very confident in making the playoffs and competing for a title.”
My Take: Justin had a very well balanced team overall. His first 4 picks were all dedicated to different positions by taking Jay Ajayi, A.J. Green, Jordan Reed, and Aaron Rodgers. Mike Gillislee may not see many targets, but he’ll make his bread & butter at the goal line so he’s definitely worth starting every week as a RB2. He’s got decent depth at every position especially with Eric Ebron backing up Reed in Round 10. Justin’s team, in a 12-team league, is very solid.
Dom Murtha seemed pretty excited about his group.
Dom: “My story basically writes itself... I'm a Cowboys fan and they all fell into my lap. Beyond that, I played the board for wideouts I liked and waited on backs with tons of touchdown upside. Zay Jones and Cole Beasley were my attempt to seize the "full point PPR" league setting advantage. Took the best kicker in the game, and got a steal in Tyler Eifert that late in the draft. Jags defense is loaded and will finish top-5 in fantasy leagues – way higher than their current ADP.”
My Take: It’s pretty clear Dom likes the Cowboys since he took 4 of them. But he managed to find value almost everywhere across the board. The only pick I don’t really like is Eddie Lacy in the 5th round. Sure he’s getting his bonuses with the Seahawks, but the offensive line is what worries me most. They have arguably the worst line in the NFL. Everywhere else though he has enough pieces to build a good team. My favorite pick might have been Samaje Perine in Round 9. Washington has a pretty good O-Line and though he’ll likely split time with Rob Kelley, Perine looks like a much better running back and could take over midway through the year.
Finally a word from Howard Bender
Howard: “Time to take some chances and have some fun, right? Sort of. While I believe you need to test out a number of different strategies in mocks, I probably should have been a little more conservative and less off-the-cuff at times given this was for the Draft Guide. But considering you just never know what’s going to happen in your home league, a few curveballs can be tolerated.
I went in with my usual strategy of loading up on running backs and wide receivers while waiting on quarterbacks and tight ends. Dalvin Cook was a reach, but with this crew, I didn’t expect him to come back to me, so I made the move. Michael Crabtree was a mistake. I wasn’t focused, forgot I already had Amari Cooper and grabbed Crabtree in the fourth. Let that be a lesson to ignore your wife when she’s yammering on about her day while you’re trying to draft.
The rest went pretty well, actually. I’ve got a great crew of high-upside wideouts, stable backs with good PPR guys in Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson, a strong QB1 in Derek Carr and then solid, all-around depth. I even took a second tight end, just to show how much I love Austin Hooper this year. We may not be playing this out, but I feel like this is a team in which I would have confidence in as we headed into battle. Giddy up!”
My Take: Howard might think that taking both Cooper and Crabtree was a “mistake” but in the film industry we call that a “happy accident” (go ahead and laugh). By taking Carr in Round 10 it almost guarantees that Howard will be double dipping with QB/WR stack touchdowns plenty of times. Stacking Carr/Cooper/Crabtree actually helped someone win $1 million last year on DraftKings. This could be a strategy that pays off big time in season-long leagues. He had a nice run of WR’s with Keenan Allen, DeVante Parker, and Stefon Diggs. His best value could be Duke Johnson in Round 9. There’s been chatter that Johnson could line up in the slot as a receiver this year, which obviously gives him more value in PPR formats. I have a lot to say about the Austin Hooper pick in Round 13, but I’ll save that for later.
The Rest of the Bunch (My Takes)
Ben Scherr: Scherr had the 1st overall pick and it’s really hard to screw that pick up whether you take Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson. Ben went with Bell, but I wasn’t too big of a fan of the Spencer Ware pick in Round 2. I have concerns about him being able to handle the workload of a starting RB for a full season. From Weeks 1-7 last year he had 5 games with at least 70 yards rushing. From Weeks 8-16 he failed to reach 70 yards on the ground again. He’s still a threat in the passing attack, but if he can’t handle the full workload again then the Chiefs might give more work to Charcandrick West and rookie Kareem Hunt. The rest of his RB’s were fairly decent. He handcuffed Paul Perkins with Wayne Gallman, which was a smart move. He also grabbed Theo Riddick in Round 8. In the 10 games he appeared in last year, Riddick had at least 4 catches in 9 of them.
He had some questionable picks starting in Round 10 and going down further. The Broncos may have the best D/ST, but it’s a huge gamble to take a defense that early. Nobody else took a D/ST until Round 14. Carson Palmer in Round 14 is a nice backup to Russell Wilson. It’s quite possible that Ben’s team could make the playoffs. After all he still has Bell in Round 1, but keep in mind Bell’s last 3 seasons have all ended due to injury.
Brett Talley: Brett kept his cool despite jabs over the color of his hair and his team looks pretty good. From Round 1-9 he focused on getting depth at RB and WR. He managed to grab Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Martavis Bryant, and Tyrell Williams as his receivers and he got Leonard Fournette, Tevin Coleman, Doug Martin, and Danny Woodhead. The Coleman pick will pan out if something happens to Devonta Freeman, but Martin and Woodhead in Rounds 7 and 8 were great. Martin will start the year serving a suspension, but with the recent news to Kenneth Dixon in Baltimore, Danny Woodhead could be in line for some work catching passes out of Baltimore’s backfield.
Perhaps my favorite pick of Brett’s in terms of value is Jason Witten. Witten rarely gets hurt. He’s appeared in 16 games in each season dating back to 2004. Coincidentally enough over that span he’s had at least 64 receptions every year. Sure he’ll be 35 this season but the Cowboys still find ways to get him involved in the offense. He only has 11 touchdowns over his last 3 seasons, but for a guy who was drafted in the 15th round, he’s a great value at the Tight End position. I wasn’t too big of the Darren Sproles pick, but it came in Round 13 so it’s not too bad. Oddly enough he picked Dan Bailey before Jason Witten, which may have been a slight reach, but Brett built a strong core with his first 9 picks.
Jon Impemba: I was really surprised by the value Jon found in the mid-to-late rounds. He went RB-RB with his first two picks by taking Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley and then drafted the best tight end in the league with Rob Gronkowski. If Impemba’s team has any weaknesses it would be his receivers. After 6 rounds he actually had more tight ends than wide receivers, but he did grab DeSean Jackson in Round 7. Jackson is reliant on the big play and that likely won’t change in Tampa, but he’s still a deep threat. Randall Cobb is his 3rd receiver. After a strong 2014 season Cobb has seen his numbers decline each of the past two seasons, but last year was shortened due to injury. If he can stay healthy he should get back to 80 catches, but he may not find the end zone as much. The rest of his receivers were rounded out with Marvin Jones and Quincy Enunwa.
Jon’s a big-time Pats fan (can you blame him?) and he managed to grab Gostkowski and the Patriots D/ST with two of his last 3 picks. Gostkowski is almost routinely a Top 10 kicker and he usually gets over-drafted but the 14th round is an okay spot to grab him. I’m a really big fan of the Patriots D/ST this year. The secondary and defensive line should hold up just fine, but there are concerns about the linebackers. The Draft Analysis gave Jon’s team a really good score, which is perplexing to me. I think it’s a good team that could easily make the playoffs. But a high draft grade makes me think Jon is paying the analyzers under the table.
Matt Selz: So if you notice anything about Selz’s team it’s that he only has three running backs (Isaiah Crowell, Mark Ingram, and Terrance West). Here’s a direct quote himself from Selz: “I just went for value and didn’t want to reach to reach to get a position I needed, hence the three running backs because I was always missing the run on RB’s.” You are preaching to the choir with that Matt as I too, missed the run on RB’s (more on me later, don’t you worry). Selz got a treat to start off with Odell Beckham Jr. falling to him at 7th overall. He took Isaiah Crowell in the 2nd round. I LOVE Crowell this year based on the offensive line alone. I hate the notion that “Crowell’s never rushed for 1,000 yards.” Two things: 1. He’s going to be 24 this year, and 2. He’s increased his rushing attempts and rushing yards each year. Not only that he’s improved his receiving numbers each season as well. Did Selz reach for Crowell in the 2nd round? Maybe. I like him more in the 3rd round, but Crowell could justify 2nd round value by the end of the year.
The rest of Selz draft is somewhat concerning. He texted me after I went to sleep (I’m human, sue me, okay?): “I was going high-risk, high-reward, especially the four wide receivers who are all young and coming off injuries.” He’s referring to Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, John Ross, and Will Fuller. To a certain extent he could be referring to the chubby Kelvin Benjamin. Selz was really aiming for high-risk, high-reward. And that’s fine. It’s a mock draft and it’s great to try different strategies. I’m not a huge fan of the team, but this is why you mock draft. You try different strategies in different draft positions. It’s a very risky team that, on paper, doesn’t hold much promise, BUT you get a feel for where players are going and you use mocks like this for you actual drafts.
Ivar Anderson: I’m gonna toot my own horn because I had a killer joke in the mock draft. Ivar travels a lot for work. He’s a lawyer (and a damn good one too!) and he was drafting from a hotel with bad wifi. So I dropped the line “Motel 6; they’ll leave the light on for you… Just not the wifi…” Not good? Alright, well moving on then!
I can’t tell if Ivar drafted a great team or if he was autodrafted a great team. He took Jordy Nelson 9th overall. Seems risky to me to draft a 32-year-old receiver 9th overall. Here’s why I’m skeptical of this whole “Draft Analyzer” thing. Ivar was in and out of the draft with funky wifi (not a dig on Ivar, but he should write a negative Yelp review) and he got a high draft grade. He grabbed Lamar Miller in Round 2. That’s fine. Alshon Jeffery in Round 3. That’s okay. But he grabbed Tom Brady and Matt Ryan in rounds 4 and 5. If this were a 2-QB league or Superflex league then that would work, but not this time. Then he took Ty Montgomery in Round 6, and I’m not even certain the Packers are committed to Ty as a running back considering they drafted 3 at the position in this year’s draft! Adam Thielen and Frank Gore in Rounds 8 and 9 are good value, and John Brown in Round 10 is AMAZING value. But I’m just not blown away by this team. It just reminds me of vanilla ice cream. And that’s no knock in Ivar. If I’m ever arrested, he’s the first guy I’m calling. But his wifi picked for him with some of these picks so I’m a bit skeptical as to why the draft graded him so high.
He got Allen Hurns, Robert Woods, and Kenny Stills late in the draft. Hurns is allergic to grass, Woods’ production depends on Jared Goff’s development, and Stills is far down on the depth chart. It’s also odd that his only tight end is Jimmy Graham will be 31 this year and his production has significantly dropped off since leaving New Orleans.
Michael Stein: I think Stein hit the ball out of the ballpark with his first two picks. There seems to be hesitancy with (myself included) taking DeMarco Murray in the 2nd round. But Stein went Mike Evans and DeMarco Murray with his first two picks at #10 overall and that’s a fantastic start picking in the 10-spot. He grabbed Brandin Cooks in the 3rd round, which I’m not a fan of. There are too many targets to go around in New England. Cooks will have his boom-and-bust games and may not be a consistent player. Stein grabbed Marshawn Lynch in Round 4, which I’m not a huge fan of. Sure Oakland has a good O-Line, but Lynch hasn’t been good since 2014. He was injured in 2015 and “retired” in 2016. He’s going to be 31 years old this season and sure he enters camp as the top RB, but he’s a gamble in PPR formats at his age.
The rest of Stein’s drafted came together pretty well. He took Greg Olsen (Captain Consistency) in Round 5 and Andrew Luck in the 6th round. Luck’s injury is a concern, but in the 6th round to get a QB with Luck’s upside is too good to pass up. Stein grabbed Brandon Marshall and Adrian Peterson in rounds 7 and 8. Two veterans with upside. But the gamble on veterans is a big risk. He grabbed Marshall’s teammate, Sterling Sherpard in Round 9, which is a nice handcuff to Brandon Marshall. Stein’s big value came in Round 10 with Donte Moncrief. In a 12-team league, Moncrief in the 10th round is HUGE value.
I’m curious if he autodrafted towards the end of the draft because he took Mike Williams, O.J. Howard, Cardinals D/ST, Cairo Santos, and Robby Anderson with his last 5 picks. Mike Williams might not play this year and O.J. Howard is a risk at Tight End. Rookie TE’s are a big risk no matter what offense they go to. Stein had some up-and-down picks but I could see this being a playoff team in 12-team PPR leagues.
Nate Miller: I know by now you all are thinking “Dan let’s get to your team. You’re so handsome and wise, give us your picks!” Hold on my followers we gotta be fair to everyone!
I’m going to preface Nate’s team by saying he’s a great dude. He’s always helped me in a jam with Fantasy Alarm and he’s a selfless human being. That being said he didn’t shoot me a message during the draft that said “My team won’t be one worth writing about.” The Kyle Rudolph auto pick threw him off his game as he wanted Danny Woodhead initially.
Nate almost went Zero-WR with this draft as his first WR taken was Larry Fitzgerald, but he did get Travis Kelce in Round 3. Nate’s 1st two picks are perfectly fine. I love Devonta Freeman (as does Nate, he lives in ATL). His numbers on turf are fantastic and if you’ve followed my weekly RB’s piece you’ll know Freeman has 13 games on turf this season. Jordan Howard is a solid 2nd round pick. Howard could be this season’s Todd Gurley pick. The difference between Howard and Gurley is that Howard at least has a good offensive line. For what it’s worth there are a lot of questions surrounding Nate’s team. Jeremy Maclin (5th round pick) SHOULD see a lot of targets, but now even Joe Flacco is having back issues so there’s no knowing how long that’ll impact him right now.
Jamison Crowder should see his share of targets, but the rest of Nate’s team is Questionable. It’s unfair to really compare Nate’s team against the draft analyzer because he didn’t select a Kicker, but I do like the pick of the Falcons D/ST despite playing in the NFC South where all those offenses have explosive potential.
And Finally… We’ve Reached My Team
My Totally Unbiased, Unprejudiced Opinion… ON MY. OWN. TEAM.
We’ve finally made it to me. I’ve wasted 3,500 words on other people and here we are. Finally we can talk about my team. And you know what? I don’t like my team. That’s right. I’m being transparent. I’ll always try to be honest and completely objective. For the 2nd mock draft with Fantasy Alarm I tried this Zero-RB theory and I don’t believe it worked in my favor.
When Julio Jones fell to me at #8 I was in heaven. In a real draft I don’t think he gets back to me at #8, but for the sake of the mock I took him 8th overall. Sure he has a toe injury and some people think the injury is more serious than doctors are letting on. But I wanted him at 8. When it came back to me in the 2nd round I would’ve taken Lamar Miller, DeMarco Murray, or Jordan Howard if they were there. But all 3 went right bfore my pick. So in a PPR format, I went with T.Y. Hilton with my 2nd pick. Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey were off the board by the time my 3rd round pick came around so I had to almost go Zero-RB. I’m buying into the hype of Terrelle Pryor in Washington so I took him as my Flex.
From here I completely invested in Zero-RB after taking 3 straight WR’s. It’s a method I’d written about recently condemning it, but I’m the kind of person that believes to discredit something you should try and understand it to its fullest. So I took 3 straight WR’s and then took Carlos Hyde 4th overall. The hope is that Kyle Shanahan makes use of him in his primarily-zone-blocking offense. I took Julian Edelman in the 5th-round which I wasn’t crazy about but he’s WR depth.
From here on out I tried to focus on RB depth (after all I was going Zero-RB at this point). So I managed to grab C.J. Anderson, Ameer Abdullah, James White, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and Dion Lewis. I know the draft grader doesn’t agree but I was okay with this. Anderson is probably the guy I start initially as my RB2, but if I strike with any of the other guys as a consistent RB2 then I won’t complain.
I LOVED getting Ben Roethlisberger in Round 8. Heading into 2017 he’ll finally have Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant altogether. Granted, all four players only took the field for 21 snaps in 2015 so most of the production came in 2014, but when they’re on the field together the potential can’t be matched. Injuries and suspensions have kept them all apart but 2017 finally brings them together. Big Ben could be in line for 4,500+ yards with 35+ TD’s if they can all stay on the field.
I like my team from a PPR standpoint, but I have a huge weakness at tight end. I blame Howard for sniping Austin Hooper 6 picks ahead of me in Round 13. Once I took Kareem Hunt in Round 12 I had a feeling Howard would take Hooper before he came back to me. I love my WR’s and QB in this format. My RB’s are very bland and the TE position sucks. I like my D/ST in the Steelers (you’ll all my found why in my D/ST piece next week) and I’m okay with my Kicker. I’d probably stream the position anyway.
Here’s Justin Vreeland’s critique of my team: “Malin went WR heavy with three picks to begin the draft. I actually really like all three of the guys he got. The problem is that he ended up with Carlos Hyde as his RB1, a guy who might not even be a starter by week 1. As a whole his RB core turned out very weak in my opinion. Also drafted a rookie TE in David Njoku as his only guy at the position, which would probably lead to streaming each and every week and very low points from the position. Between his RB and TE situations I believe he would find it nearly impossible to make the playoffs.”
Overall it’s not a team that can win in a 12-team PPR league. I haven’t been a fan of Zero-RB theory in mock drafts so far. If you pass on RB for the first 3-4 rounds you really put yourself at risk in my opinion and I’m not okay with it especially the deeper the leagues are. Grabbing a RB in the first 3 rounds just seems like a good investment.
But it’s always fun drafting with the FA guys. It’s difficult trying to get us all together to draft. We have different jobs and we live in different time zones. I highly recommend getting in on the Mock Draft Army (e-mail mockdraftarmy@yahoo.com for details) as mock drafts will be running for the next few weeks and be sure to check out the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide as it’s being updated with content daily!