THE SLATE:
(w/ Implied Team & Game Totals via KenPom)
7 pm ET -- Duke (73) at Miami FL (65) -- 138 total
8 pm ET -- UCF (62) at Memphis (69) -- 131 total
9 pm ET -- Oklahoma (67) at Texas Tech (70) -- 137 total
Top Guards
Top Guards | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Mac McClung | TT | OU | 8100 | 26.97 | 7800 | 25.10 | |
McClung is usually tough to trust in DFS because he’s more scoring dependent than we’d like for cash games - but he may be hard to get away from on tonight’s small slate. The sharpshooter is on a hot streak with 20+ real points scored and 33 DK points in four straight games, going 13-for-29 (45%) from three-point range during this span. Earlier in the season, we weren’t sure how McClung would fit in with this Tech offense that had so much versatile talent - but it’s clear he’s the alpha scorer in tight games. That’ll be the case again tonight in a battle with Oklahoma where his three-point shooting could shine once again. | |||||||
Terrence Shannon Jr. | TT | OU | 7300 | 25.19 | 7400 | 23.66 | |
On this smaller slate, the best high-priced guards are mostly in the Texas Tech-Oklahoma matchup - and Terrence Shannon is another we should target tonight. Although McClung is the headliner in the Tech offense, Shannon is second on the team in usage rate and shot volume during Big 12 play (trailing only McClung). He’s coming off two impressive DFS performances of 32 and 42 DK points over the last two games, respectively, and can fill the stat sheet in multiple ways. Look for his rebounding and three-point shooting to be difference-makers tonight - in addition to his versatile scoring ability. You can stack him with McClung or roll him out in GPP lineups as the lower-owned of the two. | |||||||
OU | TT | 7100 | 23.02 | 6700 | 21.32 | ||
This will become a common theme in today’s playbook - but we’ll need to monitor Oklahoma’s COVID situation before locking in lineups. The Sooners’ starting point guard, Austin Reaves, missed Saturday’s game due to COVID protocols and there’s a decent chance he’s out tonight too. We won’t know that for sure until warmups, though, unless some concrete news comes out earlier in the day. In Reaves’ absence over the weekend, Harmon instantly became one of OU’s main ball-handlers and offensive playmakers - leading to 33 DK points and a comfortable floor of minutes, shot attempts and ancillary stats. Expect Harmon to be heavily involved once again tonight if Reaves is out. You can also look at Elijah Harkless as a cheaper option than Harmon if you want to save salary. If Reaves is back, though, he also makes for good cash or GPP play. | |||||||
Kameron McGusty | MIA | DUKE | 6700 | 21.31 | 6800 | 19.32 | |
Miami will likely again be without a ton of key players tonight - and it’ll result in McGusty taking on most of the offensive responsibilities. The situation could change but the ‘Canes probably won’t have Chris Lykes, Elijah Olaniyi, Earl Timberlake and (most recently) Isaiah Wong, who injured his ankle over the weekend, in the backcourt tonight. This leaves McGusty to take on the bulk of ball-handling and scoring opportunities - making him very attractive for cash and GPP on this short slate with the heavy volume and offensive workload. He’s put up 32, 28 and 33 DK points over the last three games with multiple players out - and his role is increased even more now if Wong sits out. Check back before tip on this injury report - but expect McGusty to be chalky if he’s one of the ‘Canes’ only healthy bodies. |
Value Guards
Value Guards | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Harlond Beverly | MIA | DUKE | 5700 | 20.84 | 5900 | 18.72 | |
As mentioned with Kam McGusty above, Miami will be severely shorthanded again tonight - and Beverly is one of the few healthy bodies they have to rely on. The sophomore has started for most of the year, but he’ll surely take on a bigger scoring and ball-handling role if Isaiah Wong is out (in addition to everyone else). Beverly is coming off a 24 DK point performance over the weekend in a game where he only scored four points with a solid ancillary stat floor. Expect another 30+ minutes and a decent cash floor for DFS tonight as it’ll be up to him and McGusty to try to keep it close vs. Duke. Beverly actually owns the highest assist rate on the team during conference play - and he may wind up playing the point more often with Wong out or banged up. | |||||||
Alex Lomax | MEM | UCF | 5300 | 18.2 | 5800 | 16.95 | |
Memphis’ deep rotation and strong backcourt depth makes it tough to pinpoint their guards for DFS - but Lomax is the best value among them. Although he comes off the bench, Lomax is the offensive-minded super sub who usually runs the offense from the point when he’s in the game. Even as a bench player, the junior plays starter-level minutes and even leads the team in assist rate during conference play. He’s put up 30, 24 and 26 DK points in three of the last four games with plenty of ancillary stat production in each - keeping his DFS floor fairly safe. He’s the one of the only cash trustworthy plays from Memphis right now. | |||||||
Umoja Gibson | OU | TT | 5100 | 17.5 | 5900 | 15.98 | |
Again, Oklahoma’s COVID situation is one to monitor tonight and it could allow Umoja Gibson to be a value once again. Gibson has been a key bench option for the Sooners all season as the de facto sixth-man who plays starter-level minutes. With both Austin Reaves and Alondes Williams out on Saturday, though, Gibson moved into the starting lineup and logged 34 minutes with 26 DK points in the expanded role. It’s actually his third straight game with 19 or more DK points - but the production is a lot more guaranteed when two of OU’s starters are out. Plus, Gibson has more upside than normal in this matchup as his team-high three-point shooting during conference play could come in handy vs. a Tech defense that’s the worst in the Big 12 at defending the perimeter. It’s notable that he went 3-for-6 from downton in the prior meeting vs. TTU. | |||||||
Jeremy Roach | DUKE | MIA | 4500 | 17.67 | 4600 | 15.95 | |
The Duke backcourt remains a guessing game with Roach, Jordan Goldwire, Wendell Moore and DJ Steward all trading off good DFS performances. For much of the season, it was Roach who provided a solid 20 DK point floor with his 30 minute playing time and consistent double-digit scoring. In two recent games, though, he failed to score a single point in both outings and put up less than 10 DK points to lower his salary. On Saturday, Roach bounced back for 21 DK points and 12 points scored in the win over Clemson as he returned to the starting lineup. This is a tournament play, but getting 20 or more DFS points from a sub-5k player is well worth it on this small slate. |
Other Guards to Consider:
Kevin McCullar - Texas Tech ($6,900 DK / $6,400 FD)
DJ Steward - Duke ($6,500 DK / $6,100 FD)
Elijah Harkless - Oklahoma ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD)
Jordan Goldwire - Duke ($5,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Darin Green Jr. - UCF ($5,200 DK / $5,400 FD)
Boogie Ellis - Memphis ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD)
Top Forwards
Top Forwards | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Matthew Hurt | DUKE | MIA | 8200 | 33.88 | 6900 | 31.19 | |
Hurt has taken a slight step back in DFS production over the last two games - including 22 DK points on Saturday - and it’s resulted in a big decrease in salary tonight. Still, he’s a top play as one of the go-to scorers for Duke and one of the only elite-level talents on this short slate. The subpar outing over the weekend can likely chalked up to the Blue Devils’ blowout win over Clemson where he wasn’t needed as much. Although that could easily happen tonight vs. a banged-up Miami team - Hurt can still do enough damage before the blowout comes. His team-leading 46% three-point shooting during conference play gives him even more upside against a MIA defense that’s the worst in the ACC at defending the perimeter. | |||||||
Jalen Johnson | DUKE | MIA | 8000 | 29.67 | 7200 | 27.47 | |
Following a brief mid-season absence for a foot injury, it seems Jalen Johnson is now fully healthy while putting up big DFS performances as one of Duke’s key players. In this four full games back, he has outings of 67, 37 and 30 DK points in three of those. Over the weekend, his 30 DK points were impressive considering he only had nine points scored on 4-of-7 shooting in a blowout win. The matchup is very favorable tonight vs. a Miami frontcourt that’s banged-up and poor at rebounding - paving the way for Johnson to put up plenty of stats in the paint. Ownership may end up split evenly between Hurt and Johnson - but both are top plays on this small slate. | |||||||
DeAndre Williams | MEM | UCF | 7500 | 28.31 | 7700 | 26.01 | |
Since he was granted immediate eligibility in mid-December, Williams has been Memphis’ best player during conference play. He immediately stepped into being one of the Tigers’ go-to offensive playmakers and key defensive stoppers - and his DFS ceiling is very high with his heavy usage. Williams leads the team in usage rate during AAC play and he provides a safe DFS floor with his offensive role, rebounding and plenty of ancillary stats. That combination was on full display when he went off for 43 DK points last Thursday vs. SMU. Tonight, he’ll have an advantage vs. UCF’s defense that’s the worst in the conference and bad in the paint - where Williams makes his pay. People will overlook him tonight with the Duke studs standing out - but he’s a great GPP pivot. | |||||||
Anthony Walker | MIA | DUKE | 6000 | 15.33 | 5600 | 13.99 | |
Sometimes a player becomes a top play simply by default - and that’s the case for Anthony Walker tonight. The combination of the smaller slate, lack of elite talent at the forward position, and Miami’s injury situation will likely make Walker a popular cash play tonight. The sophomore will be one of Miami’s few healthy players and we can expect him to return value with 30+ minutes, plenty of stat production across the board and nearly guaranteed playing time without depth behind him. Walker has taken on even more of an offensive role lately with Matt Cross transferring. He’s scored 12 or more points in three straight and is coming off a 28 DK performance over the weekend. We’ll take that all day at his bargain salaries tonight. |
Value Forwards
Value Forwards | |||||||
Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG | |
Jalen Hill | OU | TT | 4500 | 12.83 | 4500 | 12.15 | |
Jalen Hill moved into the Sooners’ starting lineup on Saturday with both Austin Reaves and Alondes Williams sidelined. If both are out again due to COVID protocols, expect Hill to play a key role for OU in another start. The 6-foot-7 freshman logged a season-high 31 minutes in his first start of the season - and he did just enough in all stat categories to put up 19 DK points in the extended playing time. Although he won’t have a big offensive role, the ancillary stat production makes him a strong cash play if he’s starting and playing 30+ minutes yet again. The Alondes Williams absence is the one that opened up more playing time for him and the same could happen tonight. Stay tuned! | |||||||
Jamille Reynolds | UCF | MEM | 3800 | 10.97 | 4400 | 9.93 | |
On this small slate, why not take a chance on a very cheap player with some interesting upside? Jamille Reynolds was basically phased out of the rotation at certain times during conference play - but he’s also exploded for 20+ DK points and double-digit scoring in other games. One of those ceiling outings came on Saturday when the freshman logged a season-high 26 minutes off the bench and scored a career-high 17 points with a 30% usage rate. The big man doesn’t have consistent playing time by any means - but his ceiling is very high when he’s getting the minutes. He actually leads the team in usage rate during conference action despite playing limited minutes - and that high involvement comes through when his minutes increase. He could play more often in this matchup vs. Memphis’ larger lineups and he’s worth a shot in tournaments. | |||||||
Victor Iwuakor | OU | TT | 3700 | 11.79 | 4000 | 11.19 | |
Another value play coming to us via the Sooners’ COVID absences. On Saturday, Iwuakor saw his minutes increase to 22 with Reaves/Williams out - and he put up 14 DK points despite not scoring a single bucket. His rebounding and defensive stats are clearly where the value comes from - and a potential increase in playing time for a second straight would make him an interesting GPP play. In the prior meeting vs. Tech, Iwuakor actually had 24 DK points with his 10 rebounds despite the whole team being active. His versatile frame at 6-foot-7 could result in more playing time yet again in this matchup vs. TTU’s smaller lineups - compared to Kur Kutah and Brady Manek possibly being phased out. Taking a chance on Iwuakor at a big bargain is worth a shot in GPP in Williams/Reaves are out again. |
Other Forwards to Consider:
Moussa Cisse - Memphis ($6,500 DK / $6,600 FD)
Wendell Moore Jr. - Duke ($5,500 DK / $4,800 FD)
Marcus Santos-Silva - Texas Tech ($5,300 DK / $6,000 FD)
Brady Manek - Oklahoma ($4,700 DK / $4,900 FD)
Deng Gak - Miami FL ($4,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
Example Lineups:
DK Cash | FD Cash | |||||||||||
Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
G | Mac McClung | TT | OU | 26.97 | $8,100 | G | Mac McClung | TTU | OU | 25.1 | $7,800 | |
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
G | Umoja Gibson | OU | TT | 17.5 | $5,100 | G | OU | TTU | 21.31 | $6,700 | ||
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
G | Kameron McGusty | MIA | DUKE | 21.31 | $6,700 | G | Kameron McGusty | MIA | DUKE | 19.32 | $6,800 | |
Pivot | Terrence Shannon Jr. | TT | OU | 25.19 | $7,300 | Pivot | Terrence Shannon Jr. | TTU | OU | 23.66 | $7,400 | |
F | Matthew Hurt | DUKE | MIA | 33.88 | $8,200 | G | Umoja Gibson | OU | TTU | 15.97 | $5,900 | |
Pivot | Jalen Johnson | DUKE | MIA | 29.67 | $8,000 | Pivot | Harlond Beverly | MIA | DUKE | 18.72 | $5,900 | |
F | Anthony Walker | MIA | DUKE | 15.3 | $6,000 | F | Matthew Hurt | DUKE | MIA | 31.19 | $6,900 | |
Pivot | Pivot | Jalen Johnson | DUKE | MIA | 27.46 | $7,200 | ||||||
F | Jalen Hill | OU | TT | 12.8 | $4,500 | F | Anthony Walker | MIA | DUKE | 13.99 | $5,600 | |
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
Util | Alex Lomax | MEM | UCF | 18.2 | $5,300 | F | Jalen Hill | OU | TTU | 12.15 | $4,500 | |
Pivot | Marcus Santos-Silva | TT | OU | 21.26 | $5,300 | Pivot | ||||||
Util | Harlond Beverly | MIA | DUKE | 20.84 | $5,700 | Util | Alex Lomax | MEM | UCF | 16.95 | $5,800 | |
Pivot | Pivot | Jeremy Roach | DUKE | MIA | 15.94 | $4,600 | ||||||
Total | $49,600 | Total | $50,000 | |||||||||
Pivot Total | $50,000 | Pivot Total | $49,700 | |||||||||
DK GPP | FD GPP | |||||||||||
Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | Pos. | Player | Team | Opp | FPPG | Salary | |
G | OU | TT | 23.02 | $7,100 | G | Kameron McGusty | MIA | DUKE | 19.32 | $6,800 | ||
Pivot | Pivot | Elijah Harkless | OU | TTU | 17.2 | $6,500 | ||||||
G | Jeremy Roach | DUKE | MIA | 17.67 | $4,500 | G | DJ Steward | DUKE | MIA | 23.64 | $6,100 | |
Pivot | Jordan Goldwire | DUKE | MIA | 21.48 | $5,500 | Pivot | ||||||
G | Mac McClung | TT | OU | 26.97 | $8,100 | G | Mac McClung | TTU | OU | 25.1 | $7,800 | |
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
F | DeAndre Williams | MEM | UCF | 28.31 | $7,500 | G | Umoja Gibson | OU | TTU | 15.97 | $5,900 | |
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
F | Jamille Reynolds | UCF | MEM | 10.97 | $3,800 | F | DeAndre Williams | MEM | UCF | 26.01 | $7,700 | |
Pivot | Pivot | |||||||||||
F | Victor Iwuakor | OU | TT | 11.79 | $3,700 | F | Victor Iwuakor | OU | TTU | 11.19 | $4,000 | |
Pivot | Pivot | Deng Gak | MIA | DUKE | 8.33 | $4,100 | ||||||
Util | Matthew Hurt | DUKE | MIA | 33.88 | $8,200 | F | Jamille Reynolds | UCF | MEM | 9.92 | $4,400 | |
Pivot | Terrence Shannon Jr. | TT | OU | 25.19 | $7,300 | Pivot | ||||||
Util | Kevin McCullar | TT | OU | 26.22 | $6,900 | Util | Jalen Johnson | DUKE | MIA | 27.46 | $7,200 | |
Pivot | Pivot | Terrence Shannon Jr. | TTU | OU | 23.66 | $7,400 | ||||||
Total | $49,800 | Total | $49,900 | |||||||||
Pivot Total | $49,900 | Pivot Total | $49,900 |