THE SLATE:

(w/ Implied Team Totals & Odds via KenPom)

  • 2:30 pm ET -- St. John’s (66) at Connecticut (77) -- 143 total

  • 7 pm ET -- Florida State (70) at Louisville (71) -- 141 total

  • 9 pm ET -- Kansas (66) at Baylor (76) -- 142 total

Top Guards

Top Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Julian ChampagnieSTJNCONN950039.06  
Champagnie is the most expensive player on the DK slate for a reason. He consistently produces in all stat categories with a realistic floor of 30+ DK points and a ceiling of 60 or more. St. John’s 14th-fastest tempo in the country certainly helps him rack up the stats, but he’s also the team leader in offensive usage rate, shot volume, shot-blocking and three-point shooting since conference play began. The Johnnies are rotating their starting lineup around, but Champagnie is the one constant as the clear-cut best player who will be involved heavily on both ends. He’s a strong cash or GPP play on this short slate where his floor/ceiling combo stands out above everyone.
Jared ButlerBUKU880033.81770030.97
Not much analysis needed for Jared Butler at this point. He’s the best player on arguably the best team in the country (sorry Gonzaga fans) who stuffs the stat sheet and has the upside to score 20-30 real points in any given game. The only issue is that Baylor as a whole has so much talent that Butler’s scoring isn’t as needed every outing like other teams’ best players. Case in point: in the last four games, he’s scored single-digit points twice and 20+ in the other two. Still, expect Butler to be at his best on both ends of the court tonight and he stands out above both MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell on this small slate where the studs get magnified.
Tyrese MartinCONNSTJN750025.46  
If you’re on DK today, Tyrese Martin is probably the best cash game stud to lock in. Opposing teams vs. St. John’s are always the best targets because of the Johnnies’ 14th-fastest tempo in the country. For UConn, Martin is now the team’s go-to offensive playmaker with James Bouknight out. In the last two games with Bouknight sidelined, Martin put up 33 and 35 DK points with plenty of ancillary stats thrown in with his high involvement on the offensive end. The big pace-boost should allow him to produce a safe DFS floor with tons of upside in what will be a higher-scoring game than the Huskies are used to.
David JohnsonULFSU680027.77590024.90
A couple of bad games for Johnson and some big Carlik Jones performances recently have created a big price difference between the two tonight - and we should pounce on the discount. Jones is still in play for all formats, but this might be the cheapest we see Johnson all season. The sophomore is only a couple weeks removed from consistently putting up 30+ DK points with production across all stat categories. His high usage and involvement in all stats gives him a solid DFS floor every time - and Louisville may need him to shoot and score more with the Florida State defense likely keying in on Jones. There’s upside at Johnson’s price tags and he’s the ideal GPP target on this slate.

Value Guards

Value Guards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Rayquan EvansFSUUL540014.31580019.72
The biggest injury situation to monitor tonight is the status of Florida State’s Scottie Barnes. The Seminoles’ freshman has missed the last game-and-a-half with an ankle injury and he’s questionable to play tonight. If he’s in, he’s a risky play with upside at $6600 on DK and $6000 on FD. If he’s out, though, expect Rayquan Evans to be popular. The senior started the last game with Barnes out and put up 22 DK points in a season-high 31 minutes. Plus, he went off for 24 points scored and 37 DK points in the game Barnes got injured in last week. He’s appropriately priced on both sites but is a good value on this small slate.
Mark VitalBUKU480017.44460016.51
Outside of the studs in the Kansas-Baylor game, it’s tough to determine which secondary players to lock in because both teams can play smaller or bigger lineups depending on the opponent. Since they are facing each other now, those lineups are even trickier to foresee with the flow of the game or foul trouble likely determining who sees more playing time. For Baylor, Mark Vital should play a pivotal role because he can play the 4 or 5 in small-ball lineups or switch out and defend guards if Kansas goes bigger. He’s arguably the best defender on the team - which is saying something for the best defensive team in the country - and has the ability to put up 20+ DK points with plenty of ancillary stat production.
Brendan AdamsCONNSTJN460012.47  
With James Bouknight out indefinitely, Adams has moved into the starting lineup the last two games and he’s become a much safer DFS play because of it. In about 30 minutes per game in UConn’s starting backcourt with much depth behind him, Adams is able to produce across all stat categories with the extended playing time - despite not being highly involved offensively. He’s put up 17 and 18 DK points in these two starts, respectively, and will benefit from a pace-boost tonight vs. St. John’s. He’ll likely be popular in cash games on this short slate without much safe value.

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Carlik Jones - Louisville ($9,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

  • Ochai Agbaji - Kansas ($7,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

  • MaCio Teague - Baylor ($6,900 DK / $6,100 FD)

  • Davion Mitchell - Baylor ($6,500 DK / $6,400 FD)

  • M.J. Walker - Florida State ($6,200 DK / $6,600 FD)

  • Marcus Garrett - Kansas ($5,600 DK / $5,700 FD)

  • Dre Davis - Louisville ($5,300 DK / $5,400 FD)

  • Rasheem Dunn - St. John’s ($4,700 DK Only)

Top Forwards

Top Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
David McCormackKUBU780023.12740021.11
On a bigger slate, McCormack’s massive jump in salary would make him virtually unplayable - but we have to consider him tonight with only two or three games depending on the site. The junior center seen a big increase in offensive role and shot volume in Kansas’ offense over the last few games and he’s now the most expensive Jayhawks on both DK and FD. McCormack has been a go-to scorer down low for Kansas at times and he’s starting to assert his dominance in the paint on both ends of the floor. There’s a decent chance that he doesn’t return value at his price tags tonight against Baylor’s top-ranked defense and small-ball potential that would phase him out. Still, the GPP upside is there for him to post 35-45 DK points or like he’s done in two of the last three games and in three of the last five.
Jalen WilsonKUBU640027.62650025.52
After Wilson posted just 13 DK points vs. Oklahoma State on Saturday, he’s seen a big discount in pricing to the point where he’s just too cheap to not consider in all formats. On this short slate, expect the Kansas freshman to be very popular in cash games. Despite the poor offensive performances in the last two games, Wilson still has 30+ DK point upside - which he did in three straight outings not too long ago. In this tougher matchup vs. Baylor, Wilson may end up being a go-to offensive option at times with his bigger frame and versatile scoring ability - especially if he’s playing the five in small-ball lineups.
Raiquan GrayFSUUL570023.14620021.64
If Scottie Barnes is out again tonight, we can lock in Raiquan Gray for cash games on this small slate as a notable bargain at the forward position. With Barnes out on Saturday, Gray took on a bigger offensive role for the ‘Noles when he scored 19 points with five assists and led the team in usage rate in a point-forward position. Gray’s versatile offensive playmaking, defensive ability and rebounding at his 6-foot-8 size will be valuable in this matchup vs. Louisville - and he’d be a fantastic play if Barnes is out. If his teammate is back, we can still expect Gray to be solid in all formats but with slightly less upside.

Value Forwards

Value Forwards
PlayerTeamOpp.DK $DK FPPGFD $FD FPPG
Adam FlaglerBUKU450017.45440015.76
Before you roster Flagler tonight, just know he comes with some risk. He’s a classic boom-or-bust GPP option as of Baylor’s top reserves. In the last four games, we’ve seen both sides to Flagler’s DFS value. He failed to score a single point vs. Iowa State and TCU and thus provided less than five DK points in the end. Against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, though, Flagler scored 15 points in both outings, went a combined 6-for-11 from three-point range and was a good value both times. His perimeter shooting is what should help him do enough tonight as he’s shooting 45% from three on the season and Kansas’ defense tends to allow a lot of scoring via the deep ball. He’s worth the risk in tournaments on this slate.
Josh RobertsSTJNCONN39007.83  
If you’re playing on DK, keep an eye out for the St. John’s starting lineup. Josh Roberts has started the last two games and subsequently played 20+ minutes in both - the first times he’s gone over the 20-minute mark all year. The increase in playing time and role on both ends of the court has allowed him to be more valuable for DFS - with 12 and 18 DK points in these last two starts. The Johnnies’ rotations and starting lineups are about as trustworthy as your average lawyer - but anyone getting the start is worth a look, especially at such a cheap tag.
Flo ThambaBUKU370010.81380010.33
So you’ve heard me talk a lot about the different lineup possibilities for both Kansas and Baylor tonight - and Thamba would benefit if the Bears opt to go bigger more than normal. Although he’s the starting center, Thamba only plays about 15 minutes per game with Baylor using more guard-heavy lineups and Jonthan Tchamwa Tchatchoua getting more playing time. Still, he might be the team’s best chance at slowing down David McCormack if the Kansas big man starts dominating down low. We’ve seen him provide 15-20 DK points if he grabs enough rebounds and gets some put-backs - so the upside is there at a cheap price on a short slate without much value.

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Isaiah Whaley - Connecticut ($7,300 DK Only)

  • Samuell Williamson - Louisville ($5,500 DK / $5,200 FD)

  • Matthew Mayer - Baylor ($4,400 DK / $4,500 FD)

  • Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua - Baylor ($4,300 DK / $4,700 FD)

  • Quinn Slazinski - Louisville ($4,000 DK / $4,300 FD)

Example Lineups:

DK Cash FD Cash
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GTyrese MartinCONNSTJN25.46$7,500 GJared ButlerBAYKU30.96$7,700
Pivot     $7,500Pivot     
GJared ButlerBUKU33.81$8,800 GDavid JohnsonLOUFSU24.89$5,900
Pivot     $8,800Pivot     
GRayquan EvansFSUUL14.31$5,400 GRayquan EvansFSULOU13.25$5,800
PivotDre DavisULFSU17.75$5,300$5,300PivotMark VitalBAYKU16.5$4,600
FJalen WilsonKUBU27.62$6,400 GM.J. WalkerFSULOU22.56$6,600
Pivot     $6,400PivotCarlik JonesLOUFSU33.28$8,300
FMark VitalBUKU17.4$4,800 FJalen WilsonKUBAY25.51$6,500
Pivot     $4,800Pivot     
FRaiquan GrayFSUUL23.14$5,700 FRaiquan GrayFSULOU21.64$6,200
Pivot     $5,700Pivot     
UtilBrendan AdamsCONNSTJN12.47$4,600 FJ. Tchamwa TchatchouaBAYKU18.23$4,700
Pivot     $4,600Pivot     
UtilDavid JohnsonULFSU27.77$6,800 UtilDavion MitchellBAYKU26.82$6,400
PivotMaCio TeagueBUKU25.17$6,900$6,900PivotMaCio TeagueBAYKU23.29$6,100
    Total$50,000     Total$49,800
   Pivot Total$50,000    Pivot Total$50,000
             
DK GPP FD GPP
Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary Pos.PlayerTeamOppFPPGSalary
GJulian ChampagnieSTJNCONN39.06$9,500 GJared ButlerBAYKU30.96$7,700
Pivot     $9,500Pivot     
GJared ButlerBUKU33.81$8,800 GOchai AgbajiKUBAY25.5$6,300
PivotCarlik JonesULFSU35.6$9,300$9,300Pivot     
GDavid JohnsonULFSU27.77$6,800 GDre DavisLOUFSU16.3$5,400
Pivot     $6,800PivotMarcus GarrettKUBAY22.16$5,700
FDavid McCormackKUBU23.12$7,800 GCarlik JonesLOUFSU33.28$8,300
Pivot     $7,800Pivot     
FFlo ThambaBUKU10.81$3,700 FDavid McCormackKUBAY21.1$7,400
Pivot     $3,700Pivot     
FJosh RobertsSTJNCONN7.83$3,900 FAdam FlaglerBAYKU15.76$4,400
Pivot     $3,900Pivot     
UtilRasheem DunnSTJNCONN16.81$4,700 FFlo ThambaBAYKU10.33$3,800
PivotMatthew MayerBUKU18.31$4,400$4,400Pivot     
UtilAdam FlaglerBUKU17.45$4,500 UtilM.J. WalkerFSULOU22.56$6,600
Pivot     $4,500PivotDavion MitchellBAYKU26.82$6,400
    Total$49,700     Total$49,900
   Pivot Total$49,900    Pivot Total$50,000