Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Dayton -- 79 Points (-15 vs. Duquesne) **DK ONLY**
Arkansas -- 72 Points (-8 vs. Missouri)
Marquette -- 72 Points (-1 vs. Providence)
Houston -- 70 Points (-3 vs. Memphis)
Providence -- 71 Points (+1 vs. Marquette)
Auburn -- 69 Points (-6 vs. Tennessee)
Villanova -- 69 Points (-1 vs. Xavier)
Xavier -- 68 Points (+1 vs. Villanova)
Memphis -- 67 Points (+3 vs. Houston)
West Virginia -- 67 Points (-7 vs. TCU)
Purdue -- 67 Points (-2 vs. Michigan)
Top Guards
Markus Howard - Marquette ($9,300 DK / $8,500 FD)
One of the best players in college basketball should always be in consideration whenever Marquette is in action. Markus Howard’s DFS floor and ceiling are always high because of his elite-level involvement in the Golden Eagles’ offense. The senior’s 41% shots share is the highest in the country, his 38% usage rate is third-best and his 26.7 PPG is second in all of college hoops. Over the last ten games, Howard is averaging 38.5 DK points and 26.5 real points and he’s a daily threat to eclipse those numbers with ease. When he faced Providence earlier this season, Howard finished with 49 DK points and 39 real points in Marquette’s overtime loss. There’s not much more evidence we need to warrant paying up for Howard on every DFS CBB slate he’s on. However, there is a little risk this weekend. Howard tends to play worse on the road - where he’s averaging seven fewer DK points than at home. Plus, he’s failed to reach 30 DK points in three of the last five games - which can prove to be a lineup-killer considering his expensive salaries. Unlike on past slates, Howard is only a GPP option this weekend because of his recent struggles and unfavorable home/road splits. Still, the 50+ DFS points are always in play for a guy as talented as Howard.
Alpha Diallo - Providence ($8,000 DK / $7,500 FD)
For much of this conference season, it’s been tough to trust Providence’s best player for DFS purposes - but Alpha Diallo is starting to play up to his potential recently and he should be strongly considered on this slate. The senior wing has been doing it all for the Friars over the last three games - averaging 24 points scored, 11.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists and two steals/blocks during this span while putting up 51, 55 and 38 DK points, respectively. There was a time not too long ago when Diallo was struggling offensively while turning it over a ton. It seems those issues are now in the rearview mirror and he’s in a good matchup this weekend. Diallo put up 34.8 DK points with 12 points scored, 11 rebounds and three blocks against faster-paced Marquette earlier this season - and he’s performing a lot better overall at home this year. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for Markus Howard, saving money on Diallo is a definite alternative for cash and tournaments.
Houston Guards
The Cougars will likely be without starting point guard Quentin Grimes this weekend as he’s reportedly doubtful with a hip pointer injury suffered on Wednesday. Assuming Grimes sits, all of the Houston backcourt will get a bump in value on this slate - especially in a pace-up matchup with Memphis. Nate Hinton ($7,600 DK / $6,100 FD) is a little too expensive on DK but his FD price is definitely cash viable. The sophomore has been underperforming lately but he has the upside for 40 DK points as one of the best rebounders in the conference while playing the most minutes on the team. Marcus Sasser ($4,600 DK / $4,900 FD) has started the last 11 games and he’s averaging 23.7 DK points over the last four as the team’s best three-point shooter during conference play. The freshman should be a safe cash play at these salaries with 4x to 5x value or better. DeJon Jarreau ($6,200 DK / $4,800 FD) could move back into the starting lineup with Grimes out and he’s a huge value on FD with the price differential. The junior started at the point earlier this season but has come off the bench recently after serving a one-game suspension a few weeks ago. Caleb Mills ($5,700 DK / $4,700 FD) is a very attractive GPP play as he owns the highest shots share in the conference (39%) and is second in usage rate (30%) - but is usually too scoring-dependent. Although he’s been coming off the bench lately, the freshman is Houston’s leading scorer with those high rates and he’ll definitely benefit from an increase in minutes. All of these guards present some value on this slate.
Xavier Pinson - Missouri ($6,600 DK / $5,900 FD)
It’s not often we have a player emerge as an elite scorer this late in the season, but that’s apparently the case for Mizzou’s Xavier Pinson recently. The sophomore is benefiting a ton from Mark Smith’s injury as he’s become the top offensive option for the Tigers with Smith out. Pinson has now started the last six games in Smith’s place and he’s been an absolute stud over the last four games. In three of the four, he scored 24, 28 and 32 real points while putting up at least 38 DK points in each. And in the fourth game, he only scored nine points but still finished with 28.5 DK points thanks to his seven assists and six rebounds vs. LSU. Although Pinson has started just half of Missouri’s conference games, he leads the team in usage rate (30%) and shot volume (30%) with both marks among the top four in the SEC. His DFS salaries have risen but he’s still a value if he continues on this scoring tear. Plus, he’ll benefit from facing a faster-paced Arkansas team that he scored 24 real points and 39 DK points against just a couple weeks ago.
Tomas Woldetensae - Virginia ($4,800 DK / $4,900 FD)
Usually we prefer to stay away from Virginia games for DFS because of how low-scoring and slow-paced those matchups tend to be. Tomas Woldetensae, though, has been a nice one-off option from the Cavaliers now that he’s seeing consistent minutes and become a bigger part of the offense. The junior has now started the last nine games - playing 30+ minutes in four straight - and he’s scored 14 or more real points in three of the last four as the main three-point shooter for Virginia. In those three recent outings, Woldetensae has shot a combined 61% from deep (17-for-28) while taking at least eight three-point attempts in each. This will be the first meeting between Virginia and Pittsburgh this year but it sets up well for Woldetensae to get hot from three-point range yet again. Pitt’s defense does not defend the perimeter well and they allow a ton of opposing points via the three-pointer - which should help Woldetensae return enough value with upside for much more at these salaries.
Allen Flanigan - Auburn ($4,000 DK / $4,000 FD)
While Isaac Okoro remains out for Auburn, Allen Flanigan continues to be a value play because of the increase in the playing time. Okoro has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and he looks likely to sit a third straight as head coach Bruce Pearl said he won’t play Okoro until he practices - which has yet to happen. Flanigan has started the past two outings in Okoro’s place and he played 29 and 20 minutes in those games with 15 and 9 DK points, respectively. Obviously we’d like the former of those performances, but the path to returning value is definitely there if Flanigan continues to start with Okoro out. He won’t offer much offensive upside, but he’s grabbed 11 total rebounds across the two starts and he’s one of the better defensive options Auburn has to replace Okoro right now.
Other Guards to Consider:
Collin Gillespie - Villanova ($7,800 DK / $6,900 FD)
Jared Butler - Baylor ($7,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
Jalen Crutcher - Dayton ($7,400 DK Only)
Koby McEwan - Marquette ($6,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Luwane Pipkins - Providence ($5,300 DK / $4,600 FD)
Desi Sills - Arkansas ($4,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
Top Forwards
Tyrique Jones - Xavier ($8,700 DK / $8,000 FD)
If Xavier had a better record and was nationally ranked, we’d be hearing a lot more praise for Tyrique Jones. The senior center is one of the best big men in the country yet he’s often gone overlooked in the national media and for DFS - myself included. If you just take a look at Jones’ recent game logs, though, you’ll see why he should be considered one of the safest plays on the entire slate this weekend. Jones has recorded a double-double in eight straight games and he’s averaging 14 points scored, 15 rebounds and 40.6 DK points per outing over this span. He’s the best rebounder in the Big East and should have no problem putting up his usual numbers at home in a softer matchup than you might expect. Villanova has the worst interior defense in the conference and they routinely get killed on the boards. Jones had 12 points, 11 rebounds and 27.5 DK points against ‘Nova back in December - and that was before he was a consistent force in the paint like he is now. We have no reason to expect less than 35-40 DK points from him once again and he looks pretty attractive even at these expensive salaries.
Precious Achiuwa - Memphis ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
Memphis’ 7-6 record in conference play has put them at serious risk of missing out on the NCAA Tournament - but the losses haven’t stopped Precious Achiuwa from being one of the best big men in the country, and especially in the AAC. Over the last ten games, the freshman is averaging a solid 34 DK points, 15 real points and 10 rebounds per outing - but he’s really picked it up over the last week or so. Achiuwa has now put up 44 or more DK points in three straight games while averaging 20.7 points scored, 14 rebounds and three blocks/steals per game over this span. Memphis has shuffled its starting lineup around to find the right pieces to play alongside Achiuwa, but it mostly hasn’t hurt his DFS production as he proves to be a beast in the paint against undersized frontcourts in his conference. Houston’s frontcourt is actually a tougher matchup for Achiuwa than usual - but he should benefit from playing at home where he’s shooting a lot better from the field than on the road.
Trevion Williams - Purdue ($6,800 DK / $6,000 FD)
Purdue’s big man always has the potential to have monster games - but the trouble is pinpointing when those slate-breaking performances can happen. Trevion Williams could definitely take advantage of his matchup this weekend and be one of the highest DFS performers on this slate - let alone at the forward position. When Purdue faced Michigan earlier this season, Williams put up a whopping 68 DK points thanks to his impressive 36 points scored and 20 rebounds. Obviously we can’t expect him to repeat those numbers, but the 6-foot-9 sophomore should have a good game against a Michigan frontcourt that’s struggled against opposing Big Ten centers all conference season. Williams is capable of a DFS ceiling performance in any game because of his very high usage in Purdue’s offense when he’s on the court. His 31% usage rate and 31% shots share both lead the team by far and are top three marks in the conference. Plus, he’s the best rebounder in the Big Ten (according to KenPom) and actually leads Purdue in assist rate (21%). The only issue is if he can stay out of foul trouble - but that wasn’t a problem when he played Michigan earlier. Limit your exposure to GPP’s only, though, because there’s real bust potential despite the high upside.
Adrio Bailey & Ethan Henderson - Arkansas
Although there’s a chance Isaiah Joe could return this weekend, that will most likely affect Arkansas’ backcourt production more than the forwards and both Adrio Bailey and Ethan Henderson are potential values on this slate. Bailey ($4,900 DK / $4,700 FD) is a regular starter for the Razorbacks and he’s outplayed Reggie Chaney to remain amongst the starters lately. In the last five games with Joe sidelined, Bailey has scored in double figures four times and is averaging 21.8 DK points, 10.6 real points, five rebounds and 2.2 blocks/steals per outing. If Joe returns, we should expect Bailey’s offensive role to reduce - but he’s still the most valuable big man for Arkansas right now and he should still rack up ancillary stats with his more consistent playing time. Meanwhile, Henderson ($3,600 DK / $3,600 FD) replaced Chaney in the starting lineup last game and put up 13 DK points in just 10 minutes of action. Head coach Eric Musselman said after the game that Henderson gave the team great energy in his new role and would’ve played more if he didn’t get into foul trouble and eventually foul out. We could very well see Henderson start over Chaney again this weekend - whether or not Joe returns - and he’d be a solid value at these prices if he’s providing 12-20 DFS points again.
Will Baker - Texas ($4,100 DK / $3,100 FD)
Honestly, it’s a complete guessing game right now as to which Texas forward is viable for DFS - but Will Baker could be a very attractive value at these prices considering his recent breakout. On Wednesday, Baker played a season-high 26 minutes and exploded for 20 points scored and 26 DK points while going 4-for-6 from three-point range. It was actually the second game in row that Baker played meaningful minutes as he put up 12 DK points in 16 minutes against Iowa State last Saturday. The 6-foot-11 freshman has played very sparingly off the bench all year but he’s now needed more than usual because of Texas’ slew of injuries to the frontcourt. Starting center Jericho Sims is likely out for the year and his main backup Gerald Liddell remains out with a back injury. We’ve seen Kai Jones ($4,400 DK / $3,900 FD) become a value recently and he’s also in play on this slate. However, Baker has outplayed both Kamaka Hepa and Royce Hamm over the last two games and it’s very possible head coach Shaka Smart opts to give the freshman Baker more minutes moving forward - especially after his offensive explosion this week.
Jaylin Williams - Auburn ($3,200 DK / $3,000 FD)
As Auburn still tries to replace the production of Isaac Okoro, one extreme value play that’s emerged is Jaylin Williams. The true freshman has barely played all season but he finally saw meaningful minutes on Wednesday for the first time all year. Williams played 16 minutes off the bench against Georgia and he put up a decent 12 DK points with the extended playing time. Although he didn’t score a single point offensively, Williams proved he can be valuable for DFS by doing the little things - he finished with six rebounds, two steals and one assist in his limited action. Okoro will likely be out again on Saturday as he recovers from a pulled hamstring - and Williams is one of a few Auburn players who should continue to fill that void. The risk at these salaries is not high at all but the payoff could be worth it if he’s giving us 12-15 DK points. Williams actually looked good last time out and head coach Bruce Pearl praised him in the post-game presser. We could honestly see Williams see 15-20 minutes once again and if he provides enough production in ancillary stats then he’s worth a gamble.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Obi Toppin - Dayton ($8,800 DK Only)
Naji Marshall - Xavier ($8,400 DK / $7,600 FD)
Austin Wiley - Auburn ($7,100 DK / $6,500 FD)
Brandon Johns - Michigan ($4,800 DK / $4,600 FD)
Chris Harris - Houston ($4,500 DK / $4,100 FD)
Lance Thomas - Memphis ($4,200 DK / $4,000 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Alpha Diallo - PROV ($8,000)
G: Xavier Pinson - MIZZ ($6,600)
G: Caleb Mills - HOU ($5,700)
F: Tyrique Jones - XAV ($8,700)
F: Precious Achiuwa - MEM ($8,300)
F: Will Baker - UT ($4,100)
U: Marcus Sasser - HOU ($4,600)
U: Allen Flanigan - AUB ($4,000)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Markus Howard - MARQ ($8,500)
G: Xavier Pinson - MIZZ ($5,900)
G: DeJon Jarreau - HOU ($4,800)
G: Tomas Woldetensae - UVA ($4,900)
F: Precious Achiuwa - MEM ($8,100)
F: Tyrique Jones - XAV ($8,000)
F: Trevion Williams - PURD ($6,000)
U: Ethan Henderson - ARK ($3,600)