Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Gonzaga -- 88 Points (-18 vs. San Francisco) **FD ONLY**
BYU -- 85 Points (-17 vs. Santa Clara) **DK ONLY**
Michigan State -- 80 Points (-10 vs. Nebraska)
Arizona -- 77 Points (-11 vs. Oregon State)
Iowa -- 74 Points (-2 vs. Ohio State)
Oregon -- 73 Points (-1 vs. Arizona State)
Arizona State -- 72 Points (+1 vs. Oregon)
Colorado -- 72 Points (-9 vs. USC)
Ohio State -- 72 Points (+2 vs. Iowa)
Nebraska -- 70 Points (+10 vs. Michigan State)
Utah -- 69 Points (-2 vs. UCLA)
Top Guards
Payton Pritchard - Oregon ($8,600 DK / $8,300 FD)
No surprise here. If Oregon is on the DFS CBB slate, you can bank on Payton Pritchard being one of the best plays overall. The Ducks’ senior point guard is about as safe as it gets at the expensive end of the guard position tonight and there’s even some upside in a faster-paced matchup. Arizona State plays at the fastest pace in the Pac 12 and is among the top 20 in tempo in the whole country. When Pritchard faced ASU earlier this season, he put up 46 DK points thanks to his 29 points scored, six assists and three boards. That stat line is close to what we can expect from Pritchard any time he’s on the floor because of his high offensive usage, shot volume and assisting role as Oregon’s best scorer and passer. Over the last ten games, he’s averaging 37 DK points and 21 real points scored - and we can expect the high end of those numbers in a quick-tempo matchup tonight.
Tyler Bey & McKinley Wright - Colorado
Colorado’s DFS production is very top-heavy with its two studs and both Tyler Bey and McKinley Wright are squarely in play on this slate. Wright ($7,900 DK / $7,000 FD) usually has a high floor because of his consistent involvement running the point and he’s a much better play at home. Over the last ten games, Wright is averaging a stat-stuffing line of 13.6 real points, 5.4 assists, 5.1 rebounds and 30.5 DK points. Last time out, he showed his legit triple-double upside against Oregon State when he put up 13 points, 10 rebounds and six assists for 41 DK points. Meanwhile, Bey ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD) owns the highest usage rate (25%) and shots share (24%) on the team while being one of the conference’s best rebounders. He’s posted three double-doubles in the last four games and is a much safer DFS play when he’s at home like tonight. When Colorado faced USC earlier this season, both these guys had big performances with Wright finishing with 38 DK points (12 points, eight assists, six rebounds, four steals) and Bey putting up 33 DK points (16 points, seven rebounds, two blocks). Both are solid cash and GPP plays on this slate.
Cassius Winston - Michigan State ($7,800 DK / $7,400 FD)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: yet another buy-low opportunity for one of the best point guards in the country. Following a pair of subpar efforts in the last two games, Cassius Winston’s salaries have fallen once again - but tonight could be a bounceback spot for him against the terrible defense of Nebraska. Not too long ago, Michigan State’s senior leader was consistently scoring 20+ real points and providing 35-40 DK points with plenty of ancillary stats thrown in. Tonight’s matchup against Nebraska could be just the game to get Winston back to that production - which would actually make him a value. The Cornhuskers have the second-worst defense in the Big Ten and play at the fastest tempo in the conference. This sets up well for opposing point guards against Nebraska to run fast-breaks and either score or assist in transition to rack up DFS points. Winston is right on the verge of being cash-viable again but maybe limit your exposure to GPP until he proves it again.
Ohio State Guards
As long as DJ Carton remains out for Ohio State, the trio of Buckeye guards are always in play and they become more attractive in a faster-paced matchup tonight. Carton, who remains away from the team for mental health reasons, was taking up a lot of usage rate and shot volume in the offense before his absence and all three of Duane Washington, CJ Walker and Luther Muhammad have since stepped up to replace his production. Walker ($5,500 DK / $4,900 FD) is the starting point guard who plays 30 minutes per game and has put up 22 or more DK points in two straight and in three of the last five games as the team’s best assist man. Washington ($5,100 DK / $4,300 FD) comes off the bench but he now leads OSU in shots share (29%) and is second in usage (24%) during conference play as he operates in a sixth-man role. With that high involvement, Washington has been able to get hot in a couple games with Carton out. Muhammad ($4,900 DK / $4,400 FD) starts at shooting guard and his solid production in all stat categories has allowed him to put up at least 19 DK points in three straight games. All three are in play against an Iowa team that plays at the second-fastest tempo in the Big Ten with the conference’s third-worst defense.
David Singleton - UCLA ($4,300 DK / $3,800 FD)
If you’re looking for a nice salary-saver on either site tonight, UCLA’s David Singleton presents a decent floor as he’s been getting more playing time lately. Prince Ali’s back spasms have kept him very limited over the last month and Singleton has since moved into the starting rotation over the last month in Ali’s stead. Singleton has now started the last ten games while regularly playing 25-35 minutes during this span. The sophomore’s now-regular playing time and starter role allow him to rack up plenty of stats in all categories - and he’s put up 12 or more DK points in seven of the last eight games with 16 and 25 DK points in the last two outings, respectively. First off, getting any starter at these salaries is a huge value alone. But Singleton is actually doing just enough to provide 3x value as a floor with 5x upside. Plus, he now gets to face a Utah defense that doesn’t defend the three-pointer well - and Singleton is shooting 36% from deep during conference play as the majority of his shot attempts come from three-point range. The floor and upside are both there to trust him in cash and GPP on this slate.
Brendan Adams - Connecticut ($4,000 DK / $4,000 FD)
It may take a game or two until we know exactly how UConn’s rotation will change now that Akok Akok is out for the year, but Brendan Adams should be one of the key bench players moving forward. Adams has been one of Connecticut’s best reserves all season but he’ll likely see more playing time with Akok out. When Akok tore his Achilles one minute into Sunday’s win, Adams saw 23 minutes off the bench and put up 15 DK points with his nine points scored. The sophomore has now provided 26, 18 and 15 DK points in his last three games - and we’ll take that production all day at these salaries. When he faced Temple earlier this season, Adams finished with 15 DK points and 12 real points scored in 29 minutes. We could see UConn go with smaller lineups more than usual now that Akok is out and Adams would benefit a lot from that increase in playing time and offensive role.
Other Guards to Consider:
Remy Martin - Arizona State ($8,300 DK / $6,900 FD)
James Bouknight - Connecticut ($7,100 DK / $6,000 FD)
TJ Haws - BYU ($6,700 DK Only)
Josh Green - Arizona ($5,900 DK / $5,000 FD)
Daniel Utomi - USC ($5,500 DK / $4,500 FD)
Rocket Watts - Michigan State ($4,300 DK / $4,600 FD)
Top Forwards
Luka Garza - Iowa ($9,500 DK / $9,000 FD)
Despite the expensive salaries, it’s become hard NOT to play Luka Garza at this point. The Iowa center is virtually matchup-proof even in the Big Ten, and he owns one of the highest DFS floors and ceilings of any player in the country. Over the last ten games, Garza is averaging 44 DK points, 27 real points, eight rebounds and two blocks per outing - and he has the proven upside to be a lot better than that when he stays out of foul trouble. Tonight’s matchup against Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson could slow Garza a bit more than normal - but again, he’s shown us countless times that it really doesn’t matter who he’s facing. You know what you’re getting in Garza at this point with his high usage, shot volume and rebounding tendencies on both ends for Iowa - it’s just a matter of whether you have the salary to make it work. Without as much clear value as on other slates, it may be tough to pay all the way up for Garza tonight - but you won’t have to worry about him if you do.
Xavier Tillman - Michigan State ($8,700 DK / $8,700 FD)
Congrats to Xavier Tillman! The Michigan State junior and his wife just had a baby earlier this week but that likely won’t stop him from being out there tonight, despite his questionable tag. Head coach Tom Izzo said he expects Tillman to play as usual in this matchup against Nebraska - and let’s hope he does because it could be a smash spot. Aside from motivation to play well for your new kid, Tillman should dominate against Nebraska’s frontcourt that is the worst rebounding unit in the Big Ten and have struggled to contain opposing big men all conference season. Lately, we’ve been heavily targeting the forwards playing against the Cornhuskers and Tillman is one of the best they’ve faced yet. He’s averaging 37 DK points over the last ten games and is coming into this matchup on a hot streak - putting up 17.3 real points, 11.3 rebounds, 3.3 blocks/steals and 40.8 DK points per game over the last three outings. It’s the ideal scenario for Tillman but we just need clarification he’ll play beforehand. If for some reason he’s out, then Thomas Kithier ($3,800 DK / $3,500 FD) would emerge as a massive value.
Yoeli Childs - BYU ($8,500 DK Only)
If you’re playing on DraftKings, this BYU offense is one we should get some exposure to as they are projected to score the most points on that slate in a fast-paced matchup. BYU’s opponent, Santa Clara, plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country and are terrible at rebounding and getting their shots blocked. All of this plays perfectly into Yoeli Childs’ skillset and he has the GPP upside to perform just as well as Luka Garza or Xavier Tillman tonight. Since Childs missed four games in mid-January with a finger injury, he’s been playing like one of the best big men in the country over the last month while repeatedly putting up 40+ DK points against the smaller competition in the West Coast Conference. During conference play, Childs has a 34% usage rate and 36% shots share - both marks lead BYU by far and are among the best in the nation. Plus, he’s one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the conference and is even a decent passer from the frontcourt.
Filip Petrusev - Gonzaga ($7,300 FD Only)
If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, getting exposure to the Gonzaga team as a whole is the way to go as they are projected to score the most points on that slate in a blowout win over San Francisco. The key to picking the right Zags, though, will come down to the availability of Killian Tillie. The senior forward recently re-aggravated his ankle injury and sat out last Saturday’s game as a result. Tillie is questionable tonight but we should expect Gonzaga to keep him out again in what should be an easy win as the team surely wants him healthy for the NCAA Tournament. When Tillie has missed games this year, Filip Petrusev gets a big bump in offensive usage and shot volume as the main scoring threat down low - and he’s one of the best forwards on the FD slate. Petrusev just put up 49 FD points against Pepperdine with Tillie out when he had 27 points scored and 12 rebounds on a team-high 37% usage rate and 20 shot attempts. When Gonzaga faced San Francisco earlier this month, Petrusev also had a big game without Tillie as he had 40 FD points, 23 points scored and 11 boards while leading the team in both usage rate (34%) and shot attempts (14) as well. It’s clear that he’s the best DFS option for Gonzaga when Tillie is out and he should be strongly considered.
Isaiah Whaley - Connecticut ($6,000 DK / $5,400 FD)
UConn devastatingly lost Akok Akok for the season when he tore his Achilles over the weekend. In Akok’s absence, though, we should expect Isaiah Whaley to have a much bigger role moving forward beginning tonight. After Akok got hurt one minute into Sunday’s game, Whaley played a season-high 34 minutes and put up 27 DK points with his five points scored, seven rebounds and six blocks. It’s possible Whaley will move into the starting rotation tonight, but the junior has proven to be valuable coming off the bench before Akok’s injury. Whether he starts or not, Whaley’s DFS floor is now a lot safer with more guaranteed minutes and defensive role as one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers on the team. Both those skills should come in handy tonight against a Temple team that does not rebound well and gets their shots blocked a good amount. When Whaley faced Temple earlier this season (with Akok in the lineup), he had 27 DK points with 10 points scored, six boards, two blocks and two steals in just 17 minutes. The sky looks to be the limit for him now with an increase in playing time.
Ryan Kriener - Iowa ($4,700 DK / $4,400 FD)
A key injury situation to monitor tonight will be the status of Iowa’s starting shooting guard CJ Fredrick. If he sits a second straight game, expect Ryan Kriener to start again and be a solid value with the increase in playing time and offensive role. Fredrick ($5,400 DK / $4,900 FD) will be a game-time decision tonight as he deals with a sprained ankle that kept him out of Sunday’s game. In his absence over the weekend, Kriener stepped into the starting lineup and played a season-high 34 minutes as he put up 29 DK points on 10 points scored, seven rebounds and four blocks. A repeat of that performance is hard to realistically expect tonight, but if Kriener is giving us 20 DK points at these salaries then he’s one of the best values on the slate. If Fredrick ends up playing, he’s also in play as he played a key role in the Iowa offense before his injury.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Zeke Nnaji - Arizona ($8,200 DK / $7,400 FD)
Isaiah Stewart - Washington ($8,000 DK / $7,500 FD)
Drew Timme - Gonzaga ($5,600 FD Only)
Branden Carlson - Utah ($5,400 DK / $5,000 FD)
Andre Wesson - Ohio State ($5,300 DK / $4,600 FD)
Cody Riley - UCLA ($4,900 DK / $4,400 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Payton Pritchard - ORE ($8,600)
G: Luther Muhammad - OSU ($4,900)
G: David Singleton - UCLA ($4,300)
F: Xavier Tillman - MSU ($8,700)
F: Yoeli Childs - BYU ($8,500)
F: Isaiah Whaley - CONN ($6,000)
U: Ryan Kriener - IOWA ($4,700)
U: Brendan Adams - CONN ($4,000)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Cassius Winston - MSU ($7,400)
G: McKinley Wright - COLO ($7,000)
G: Duane Washington - OSU ($4,300)
G: David Singleton - UCLA ($3,800)
F: Luka Garza - IOWA ($9,000)
F: Filip Petrusev - GONZ ($7,300)
F: Isaiah Whaley - CONN ($5,400)
U: Drew Timme - GONZ ($5,600)