Highest Scoring Teams:
(by Implied Points & Spreads per KenPom)
Alabama -- 80 Points (-1 vs. Belmont) **DK ONLY**
Belmont -- 79 Points (+1 vs. Alabama) **DK ONLY**
Kansas -- 75 Points (-1 vs. Villanova)
North Carolina -- 75 Points (-8 vs. UCLA)
Villanova -- 74 Points (+1 vs. Kansas)
Indiana -- 73 Points (-4 vs. Notre Dame)
Top Guards
Alpha Diallo - Providence ($8,600 DK / $7,500 FD)
Some may look past this Providence-Texas game for DFS purposes because of the low total, but we can’t ignore Alpha Diallo whenever he’s on the slate. The Friars’ point-forward is doing a little bit of everything on both ends of the court and his high involvement will always provide him with a solid DFS floor and ceiling. Diallo leads the team in a multitude of advanced state including minutes share (79%), usage rate (28%), shots share (26%) and combined rebounding rate (31%). Plus, his 19% assist rate makes him a legit triple-double threat in any matchup - even the lower-scoring ones. Despite Providence scoring just 51 points vs. Florida last time out, Diallo still put up 46 DK points with his 20 points scored, 12 rebounds and four steals. In this tough matchup vs. Texas, the Friars will need Diallo to be highly involved once again and he seems safe to provide 35 DFS points. However, he’s more of a GPP play because he’ll be lower-owned than other high-priced players on this slate.
Devon Dotson - Kansas ($8,400 DK / $7,800 FD)
On both sites, this Kansas-Villanova matchup looks very appealing from a DFS standpoint with 149 total points expected by KenPom with both sides boasting strong offenses. For the Jayhawks, Dotson is their on-court leader with team-high’s in usage rate (26.7%), assist rate (25.7%) and minutes share (86.3%) and the second-highest shots share. As with most of these high-priced guards, Dotson’s high involvement on offense gives him a solid DFS floor with the upside to provide much more value - especially in a back-and-forth, high-scoring matchup like today’s. Dotson is averaging 35 DK points per game this year and has exceeded that mark twice in the last four games - he had 52 DK points vs. Dayton and 44 DK points vs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Kansas will definitely need Dotson to be the playmaker that he is against Villanova on the road - and he looks pretty safe for your cash games.
Kira Lewis - Alabama ($8,100 DK Only)
If you’re playing on DraftKings today, you definitely want exposure to this Alabama-Belmont matchup because it features two teams that like to play at fast tempos and has the highest projected point total on the slate with the Crimson Tide as only 1-point favorites. This puts Kira Lewis squarely into consideration as arguably the best player in the game and the leading playmaker for Alabama. Lewis has a whopping 94% minutes share (the 11th-highest mark in the country) and leads the team in usage rate (24%), shots share (24%) and assist rate (23%) from the point guard position. His high involvement on offense for Alabama gives him a pretty high DFS floor as he’s averaging 33 DK points per game and has scored less than 26 DK points just once so far. Lewis’ ability to drive to the rim and score inside gives him a slightly higher ceiling than usual because Belmont’s defense defends the perimeter very well and tends to funnel opposing scoring inside.
Justin Moore - Villanova ($5,600 DK / $4,900 FD)
Although Moore has been moved to the bench over the last four games, he’s actually seen an increase in playing time and offensive usage during this span. In these past four as a reserve, the freshman is averaging 32 minutes with a 25.8% usage rate - and he’s also averaging 18 points scored and 25.9 DK points with double-digit shot attempts in all four games. Villanova head coach Jay Wright seems to have found a rotation that’s working and Moore is still very valuable despite not starting right now. Plus, Moore’s 43% three-point shooting could come in handy against a Kansas defense that does not defend the perimeter well and allows the majority of opposing points via the three. In what should be a high-scoring and tightly contested matchup vs. Kansas, Moore seems very safe to return value in all formats. He’s especially more valuable on FD with the noticeable price differential.
Christian Keeling - North Carolina ($4,200 DK / $3,800 FD)
With Cole Anthony out for the next 4-6 weeks, Christian Keeling and the rest of UNC’s backcourt have seen an uptick in playing time and usage over the past two games. Keeling, who started the first four games of the year, has led the team in usage rate in each of the past two outings with Anthony out. Against Wofford last Sunday, Keeling entered the starting lineup and provided 21 DK points in 20 minutes with a 30% usage rate. Although the transfer from Charleston Southern moved back to the bench last game vs. Gonzaga (with Leaky Black returning), Keeling still played 20 minutes with 17.75 DK points on a team-high 26% usage rate. Without Anthony in the lineup, Keeling is now second on the team in usage and shots share this season - behind big man Armando Bacot. He’ll remain one of the best values on any slate as long as he’s priced this cheap and getting at least 20 minutes with his high involvement on offense.
Nojel Eastern - Purdue ($4,000 DK / $4,200 FD)
With Matt Haarms (concussion) looking doubtful to play today, Eastern should start a second straight game and that increase in playing time and usage makes him a solid value play at these price points. Eastern, who started the first seven games for Purdue, returned to the starting rotation on Tuesday with Haarms sitting out. In that game, the junior wing put up 21.75 DK points in 29 minutes - his highest amount of time on the court since the end of November. Eastern’s uptick in playing time should continue today against a very good Butler team. He’s one of the better on-ball defenders in the country and Purude will need his defensive intensity to guard Butler stud guard Kamar Baldwin. Eastern won’t provide much offensive upside, but as long as he’s on the court playing extended minutes then he can easily return value as a cheap play - he usually stuffs the stat sheet with steals, rebounds and assists.
Other Guards to Consider:
Collin Gillespie - Villanova ($7,300 DK / $6,400 FD)
Adam Kunkel - Belmont ($6,400 DK Only)
Marcus Garrett - Kansas ($6,100 DK / $5,800 FD)
Rob Phinisee - Indiana ($5,200 DK / $4,900 FD)
K.J. Smith - North Carolina ($4,100 DK / $3,000 FD)
Top Forwards
Kofi Cockburn - Illinois ($8,300 DK / $7,100 FD)
There aren’t many high-priced forwards we need to prioritize on this slate, but Cockburn could be in line for big game. The 7-foot freshman leads Illinois in usage rate this season (28.5%) and is a close second in shots share (25.7%). Plus, his massive frame in the paint has allowed him to be a rebounding machine as he’s averaging a double-double for the season and has grabbed at least eight boards in nine of 11 games so far. In this matchup vs. Missouri, Cockburn will go head-to-head against the Tigers’ 6-foot-10 center Jeremiah Tilmon. However, Illinois’ big man should have the advantage because he draws fouls at the 13th-highest rate in the country while Tilmon is committing five fouls per 40. All Cockburn needs is to draw Tilmon into foul trouble early and he’ll have the paint cleared for him to take over.
Saddiq Bey - Villanova ($7,700 DK / $6,700 FD)
As we mentioned earlier, we should be targeting this Kansas-Villanova game heavily in our DFS lineups today and now we get to the Wildcats’ unsung hero lately. Bey has quietly been ‘Nova’s best player over the last month with a recent five-game stretch where he put up no less than 34 DK points and averaged 20.2 points scored, 7.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists during that span. He leads the team in shots share this season (24.4%) and is second in offensive usage behind point guard Collin Gillespie. Bey is coming off one of his worst games, but we shouldn’t be too worried because Villanova didn’t need him as much in the easy win over Delaware. Today, though, he has a ton of upside to return to his 35-40 DK points because of the matchup vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks’ defense allows a ton of points via the three-pointer and Bey is draining 44% of his deep balls so far.
Trevion Williams - Purdue ($5,300 DK / $4,800 FD)
Williams was the chalk play on Tuesday’s slate with Purdue center Matt Haarms sitting out with a concussion - and he didn’t disappoint. At his sub-5k price tag in that game, Williams put up 21 DK points with 14 points scored, four rebounds and five assists on a whopping 49% usage rate. The only reason he didn’t smash value was because he got into foul trouble - something that’s always a risk with him. However, we need to again strongly consider Williams in all formats as long as Haarms is out again - which seems likely at this point as he tries to return from a concussion. Williams’ high-usage last time out shouldn’t come as a big surprise as he leads the Boilermakers’ in offensive usage rate this season (28.4%) and is the team’s best rebounder - despite coming off the bench to start the year. Yet, the big-bodied freshman has now started the past four games and is only a game removed from putting up 46.5 DK points on his 18 points, 16 rebounds vs. Nebraska.
Neemias Queta - Utah State ($5,300 DK Only)
It took awhile for Queta to return from an offseason knee injury, but it seems he’s finally back to getting a regular workload as Utah State’s center. The 7-footer came off the bench in his first two games back, but he returned to the starting rotation on Wednesday and played a comfortable 29 minutes. In that matchup vs. South Florida, Queta put up 32 DK points on 18 points scored and eight rebounds - and he could’ve done even more damage had he not fouled out. Still, it’s encouraging to see Queta return to a normal workload in just his third game back from injury - and Utah State will definitely need his size down low against a tough defensive team in Florida today. Eventually he will be in the 7k price range, so Queta is a massive value right now on DK. Last year, he was one of Utah State’s best players alongside guard Sam Merrill - and now he has the benefit of playing alongside another talented forward in Justin Bean.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Udoka Azubuike - Kansas ($7,900 DK / $7,300 FD)
EJ Montgomery - Kentucky ($5,300 FD Only)
Herbert Jones - Alabama ($5,200 DK Only)
Nate Watson - Providence ($4,900 DK / $5,000 FD)
E.J. Liddell - Ohio State ($4,800 FD Only)
Jordan Tucker - Butler ($3,900 DK / $4,100 FD)
DraftKings Example Lineup:
G: Kira Lewis - ALA ($8,100)
G: Devon Dotson - KU ($8,400)
G: Christian Keeling - UNC ($4,200)
F: Saddiq Bey - VU ($7,700)
F: Trevion Williams - PUR ($5,300)
F: Neemias Queta - UTST ($5,300)
U: Marcus Garrett - KU ($6,100)
U: Nate Watson - PROV ($4,900)
FanDuel Example Lineup:
G: Devon Dotson - KU ($7,800)
G: Christian Keeling - UNC ($3,800)
G: Alpha Diallo - PROV ($7,500)
G: Justin Moore - NOVA ($4,900)
F: Kofi Cockburn - ILL ($7,100)
F: Udoka Azubuike - KU ($7,300)
F: Saddiq Bey - NOVA ($6,700)
U: Trevion Williams - PURD ($4,800