Have you caught your breath yet after yesterday’s nail-biting Elite Eight games? Me neither...but we have two more games on Sunday’s slate before the Final Four matchups are set. And these could be more entertaining than Saturday’s action.
DraftKings and FanDuel both have the two games on their slates with the early matchup (Auburn-Kentucky) tipping at 2:20 pm ET and the later one (Michigan State-Duke) starting at 5:05 pm ET.
As we’ve done for the entirety of the NCAA Tournament, we will point out the teams on this slate who are projected to score the most (and least) amount points of all four teams in action (according to KenPom). That’s where you should generally start your focus when it comes to lineup-building. Then, we’ll outline the top cash and GPP plays to lock into your lineups for the slate.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Teams On The Slate:
MICHIGAN STATE - 77 Implied Points vs. Duke - 5:05 pm ET (Washington, DC)
DUKE - 76 Implied Points vs. Michigan State - 5:05 pm ET (Washington, DC)
KENTUCKY - 73 Implied Points vs. Auburn - 2:20 pm ET (Kansas City, MO)
AUBURN - 71 Implied Points vs. Kentucky - 2:20 pm ET (Kansas City, MO)
Guards
Cassius Winston - MSU ($8,600 DK / $8,600 FD)
Duke’s Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett will surely be the most popular plays today at the expensive end, but don’t forget about Winston. The Michigan State point guard may own the highest fantasy floor and ceiling of anyone not named Zion and RJ - and he’ll need to be at his best to take down the Blue Devils. Winston had a “down” game by his standards on Friday, putting up 28 DK points with 17 points scored and eight assists in the win over LSU. Yet, he really didn’t need to do much more because the Spartans got some great scoring performances from Aaron Henry, Xavier Tillman and Gabe Brown. A matchup with Duke will be a tough one individually for Winston as he’ll go head-to-head with Tre Jones - but the MSU leader needs to be considered on this two-game slate, especially for GPP purposes. Before Friday’s game, Winston had put up at least 32 DK points in each of the previous six games while averaging 18.7 points, 7.9 assists and 35+ DK points in his last ten outings. If you want to save a little coin at the top end of your lineups, Winston is a solid pivot off Williamson or Barrett - and it’ll allow you to pay up at another position for a more balanced approach.
Tyler Herro - UK ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD)
Herro was terrible shooting-wise against Wofford last weekend, but he bounced back on Friday in the win over Houston. The freshman scored 19 points with 27+ DK points and his free-throw shooting late in the second-half sealed the Sweet 16 victory. Herro has also been one of the more consistent DFS producers in this price range lately, putting up at least 22 DK points in nine of the past ten games. While he’s the best deep-ball shooter for Kentucky, Herro’s fantasy floor remains safe because of his active role on both ends getting enough rebounds, assists and steals to stay relevant. He’s only made two three-pointers this tournament, but Herro may be called upon more often from the perimeter against Auburn - who like to play fast and fire up three’s on offense. If the Tigers get out to an early lead, Herro’s three-point shooting might be the only thing that keeps Kentucky in the game. During conference play, he shot 42% from long range and made 6-of-12 from three in his two previous matchups with Auburn this year.
Bryce Brown - AUB ($6,200 DK / $6,100 FD)
The biggest injury news for today’s slate unfortunately centers on Auburn’s Chuma Okeke, who tore his ACL in Friday’s win over UNC. You’ll see below how we expect the starting rotation to change and which forwards could see extended playing time - but the offensive onus now falls mostly on Brown and Jared Harper to keep Auburn’s scoring train going. Harper’s individual matchup vs. UK point guard Ashton Hagans is worrisome, so expect Brown to get a ton of scoring opportunities - especially from three-point range, an area where Kentucky has struggled to defend this season. In Brown’s previous two matchups with the Wildcats this season, he knocked down 8-of-12 three-pointers - including 28 points scored and six made three’s back on Jan. 19. The senior shooting guard is averaging 29 DK points in Auburn’s three tournament games so far - highlighted by his 25 points scored and seven made three-pointers in last weekend’s win over Kansas. Without Okeke, the Tigers will need Brown to get hot from deep and provide additional scoring like he’s capable of doing.
Alex O’Connell - DUKE ($3,700 DK / $3,800 FD)
Duke shocked everyone on Friday when it was announced right before tip that Cam Reddish wouldn’t start as he dealt with knee tendinitis. Instead, O’Connell entered the starting lineup and ended up playing 35 minutes as Reddish sat out the entire game. Reddish will be a game-time decision on Sunday, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports - if he’s out again, O’Connell should get the start again and he’d instantly become one of the best values on this slate. In Friday’s win over Virginia Tech, the sophomore put up 16+ DK points with four points scored, seven rebounds, two assists and a steal while playing nearly the whole game. O’Connell is no stranger to increased playing time this season as he started five straight games in February/March while Zion Williamson sat out with a knee injury. In those starts, we saw him put up at least 16 DK points three times - including 31+ DK points against Syracuse when he hit 5-of-8 three-pointers and scored 20 points. If O’Connell gets the start today, we can safely plug him in everywhere because he’ll likely get 30 minutes and return 4x or 5x value at this price tag.
Other Guards to Consider:
Jared Harper - AUB ($7,500 DK / $7,300 FD) - GPP
Tre Jones - DUKE ($6,300 DK / $6,400 FD) - Cash
Keldon Johnson - UK ($5,900 DK / $5,900 FD) - Cash
Immanuel Quickley - UK ($3,900 DK / $3,600 FD) - GPP
J’Von McCormick - AUB ($3,800 DK / $4,000 FD) - GPP
Forwards
Zion Williamson - DUKE ($10,100 DK / $9,900 FD)
RJ Barrett - DUKE ($9,600 DK / $9,400 FD)
All roster construction for Sunday should begin and end with Duke’s dynamic duo. Williamson and Barrett have the highest fantasy floors and ceilings among all players on this two-game slate and there’s simply no way you cash without at least one of them in your lineups. The only issue here for DFS players is whether you roster both of them in the same lineup or pick-and-choose between them for a more evenly balanced build. As you’ll notice, a couple of key injuries today have opened up enough value that you can realistically fit both Williamson and Barrett in the same lineup and feel comfortable about it - that example lineup is below. If you are choosing one or the other, though, let’s look closer.
Michigan State boasts a trio of talented forwards who could limit Williamson’s effectiveness in the paint - as both a rebounder and as a driving scorer. Yet, he’s proven to be capable of adapting to these tough matchups before - as in two games ago against UCF and 7’6” center Tacko Fall when he put up 32 points scored, 11 boards and 55+ DK points. Williamson is a daily threat to put up 50-60 fantasy points, but he can also have a down game by his standards and “only” provide 30-40 fantasy points - like he’s done in three of the last four outings. If you want to save some salary and go down to Barrett, he’s really not a bad pivot play. The future NBA lottery pick was actually more involved offensively than Williamson against Virginia Tech on Friday - he put up 40.5 DK points with 18 points scored, 11 assists and four rebounds. If Zion struggles down low against the Spartans’ strong paint defense, Barrett could easily have the better game today as the playmaker on the outside with a more favorable individual matchup. His fantasy floor is about the same as Williamson’s with nearly the same ceiling of 50-60 fantasy points.
PJ Washington - UK ($7,600 DK / $7,500 FD)
After missing Kentucky’s first three tournament games with a foot injury, Washington returned to the lineup on Friday and looked pretty healthy in his 26 minutes. The sophomore came off the bench but played more than starter EJ Montgomery and scored 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting. We should expect Washington to get closer to 30-40 minutes on Sunday and play a bigger role on both ends - assuming his foot doesn’t start bothering him. Since that is a real risk, though, limit your exposure to GPP lineups because he may not return value if he again sees limited playing time. Still, the matchup is a favorable one - especially since Auburn just lost their best forward, Chuma Okeke. When Washington faced his SEC rival earlier this season, he averaged 18.5 real points, 6.5 rebounds and 32.9 DK points in two outings. If you get 32 DK points from him today, that’s great value considering he’s only reached that number once in his previous seven games.
Aaron Henry - MSU ($4,700 DK / $5,000 FD)
We’ve been suggesting Henry all tournament and he’s provided just enough value to stay relevant - that is, until his breakout performance against LSU on Friday. The freshman put up a slate-breaking 44 DK points while setting career-highs in points scored (20), minutes (38), assists (6) and shot attempts (14). Similar to Virginia’s Mamadi Diakite, Henry’s role on both ends and DFS production has increased a ton during the tournament - yet his salary has mostly stayed the same. The fact that he’s coming off a career game, combined with a very affordable salary, should make Henry one of the most popular plays today on this two-game slate. Still, we need to eat the chalk here and not think twice about rostering him in every one of our lineups. Henry will likely be tasked with guarding Duke’s RJ Barrett - which should keep him locked into 30-35 minutes as well.
Horace Spencer - AUB ($4,000 DK / $4,200 FD)
Danjel Purifoy - AUB ($3,300 DK / $3,900 FD)
Auburn received terrible news Saturday when an MRI revealed a torn ACL for stud forward Chuma Okeke, who went down in the second-half of Friday’s win over UNC. It’s now next man up for the Tigers and for DFS players, that means some attractive value. Spencer and Purifoy are both expected to get increased playing time in Okeke’s absence - and both can easily 5x their salaries today. We need to pay attention to Auburn’s starting lineup, though. Spencer, a senior, is the likely candidate to enter the starting rotation - but he only started one game this season while Purifoy, a junior, came off the bench all year. On Friday, though, it was Purifoy who hit 4-of-6 from three-point range and put up 18 DK points in 12 minutes. Meanwhile, Spencer contributed 14.5 DK points in his 14 minutes against UNC. There’s a chance that we see an even split in playing time between Spencer, Purifoy and Austin Wiley - no matter who starts - and DFS production will depend on who’s playing better in head coach Bruce Pearl’s eyes. The value is real, though, for either Spencer and Purifoy if we’re getting at least 20 minutes at these cheap salaries. Again, look out for Auburn’s starting lineup ahead of this 2:20 pm ET tip to get a better sense of which one to play more of.
Gabe Brown - MSU ($3,000 DK / $3,500 FD)
Auburn’s frontcourt isn’t the only one with interesting value today. Allow me to introduce you to Gabe Brown. The Michigan State freshman has played very sparingly this season, but he emerged on the national stage in Friday’s win over LSU. Brown saw 16 minutes off the bench and knocked down 4-of-6 three-pointers while putting up 20+ DK points in Sparty’s Sweet 16 victory. The 6’7” wing player really hasn’t been a member of MSU’s rotation this year, but his performance last game could force coach Tom Izzo to give him more minutes going forward - especially if Nick Ward is limited. Ward is dealing with a bone bruise in his left hand, the same one he had surgery on earlier this season, and played the same amount of minutes as Brown on Friday. In the second-half of that game, it was clear Brown got extended run while Ward sat on the bench - and the youngster took full advantage. Limit your exposure to Brown to GPP’s, but he could be the play that earns you a first-place finish in tournaments if he continues to get playing time and hits his three’s.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Xavier Tillman - MSU ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD) - Cash
Reid Travis - UK ($5,600 DK / $5,700 FD) - Cash
Marques Bolden - DUKE ($4,500 DK / $4,200 FD) - GPP
Anfernee McLemore - AUB ($4,400 DK / $4,100 FD) - GPP
Austin Wiley - AUB ($4,200 DK / $4,300 FD) - GPP
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Bryce Brown, AUB - $6,200
G: Tyler Herro, UK - $6,500
G: Alex O’Connell, DUKE - $3,700
F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $10,100
F: RJ Barrett, DUKE - $9,600
F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $4,700
U: Keldon Johnson, UK - $5,900
U: Danjel Purifoy, AUB - $3,300
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $8,600
G: Tyler Herro, UK - $6,800
G: Alex O’Connell, DUKE - $3,800
G: Jared Harper, AUB - $7,300
F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $9,900
F: Horace Spencer, AUB - $4,200
F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $5,000
U: Austin Wiley, AUB - $4,300