How’s your bracket looking? Busted? Yep, me too…(Darn you, Yale!) Here’s the good news, though: There are 16 more first-round NCAA Tournament games to build DFS lineups from on Friday! The time is NOW to apply everything we learned this season and apply it - no matter who we’re picking in our brackets.
DraftKings has a massive slate that includes all 16 first-round matchups. At first glance this may be overwhelming, but the late-swap lineup tool on DK allows for us to switch in some of the players in later matchups to shoot up leaderboards. FanDuel, on the other hand, has split up their slates into early and late ones - with lineup locks at 12:15 pm ET and 6:50 pm ET, respectively.
Whether you’re a regular or a newbie to these DFS CBB Playbooks, we will be doing things a bit differently for the NCAA Tournament in regards to the setup of teams and players to target. Instead of suggesting games overall, we will point out the teams on this slate who are projected to score the most points of all 32 teams in action (according to KenPom).
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Teams To Target:
- NORTH CAROLINA - 95 Implied Points vs. Iona (9:20 pm ET)
- DUKE - 87 Implied Points vs. North Dakota State (7:10 pm ET)
- TENNESSEE - 83 Implied Points vs. Colgate (2:45 pm ET)
- BUFFALO - 82 Implied Points vs. Arizona State (4:00 pm ET)
- VIRGINIA - 77 Implied Points vs. Gardner Webb (3:10 pm ET)
- HOUSTON - 77 Implied Points vs. Georgia State (7:20 pm ET)
Teams To Fade:
- GARDNER WEBB - 55 Implied Points vs. Virginia (3:10 pm ET)
- OREGON - 56 Implied Points vs. Wisconsin (4:30 pm ET)
- UC IRVINE - 56 Implied Points vs. Kansas State (2:00 pm ET)
- SAINT LOUIS - 58 Implied Points vs. Virginia Tech (9:57 pm ET)
- NORTHERN KENTUCKY - 61 Implied Points vs. Texas Tech (1:30 pm ET)
Guards
Cameron Johnson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)
Notice above how North Carolina is projected to score the most points of any team on this slate. This means we definitely want exposure to this offense and Johnson has been the better scorer lately among UNC’s “Big Three” that also includes Luke Maye and Coby White. Over the last ten games, the senior is averaging 19.5 real points, 6.6 rebounds and 35+ DK points - including three different outings of at least 44 DK points. In this matchup vs. 16-seed Iona, Johnson also has an advantage with his three-point shooting as the Gaels do not defend the perimeter well and allow the majority of opposing points to the three-pointer. Meanwhile, Johnson’s 45.9% mark from deep during ACC play was 2nd-best in the conference and led the Tar Heels by far. UNC should blowout Iona on Friday and Johnson may not play his normal workload, but the blowout win likely means Johnson had a great game anyway.
Luguentz Dort - ASU ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD)
With Arizona State’s season on the line in Wednesday’s First Four matchup, Dort anchored the victory with a team-high 21 points and 31.5 DK points against a tough St. John’s defense. On Friday, the freshman gets a pace-up game vs. the high-tempo Buffalo offense, which usually allows for opposing teams to get their share of offensive possessions. Dort leads ASU in shot volume and offensive usage and he has the ability to not only score from deep but also by driving to the rim and getting to the foul line - traits that are crucial come tournament-time. During Pac-12 action, Dort also took over more responsibility in the Sun Devils offense as his fouls-drawn rate was 4th in the conference and his usage rate was 6th. Arizona State, led by Dort, also has the momentum in its favor having just won Wednesday night and could potentially win this high-scoring game as well.
Justin Robinson - VT ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD)
Virginia Tech received some good news this week when starting senior point guard Justin Robinson announced he was cleared to return after missing the last 12 games with a foot injury. It’s reasonable to be skeptical of Robinson’s minutes and usage in his first game back, but we should expect him to be fully involved as Tech’s 13-seed opponent, Saint Louis, is no easy win. After first-round exits in each of the last two tournaments, Robinson made it clear he won’t let that happen again. “I won’t let us go to the tournament and play one game and lose,” he told the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Before his injury, Robinson was averaging 13.7 points, 5.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 28.4 DK points per game. In the three games right before getting hurt, he averaged 38.75 DK points, 23.3 real points and 5.6 assists - including an offensive outburst vs. Syracuse on Jan. 26 when he put up 35 real points and 53+ DK points.
Robert Cartwright - UCIR ($4,900 DK / $4,800 FD)
There’s a real possibility UC Irvine upsets Kansas State on Friday - and Cartwright could be a key reason why. The senior has taken over as the Anteaters’ starting point guard the last five games with Eyassu Worku sidelined with a leg injury. In the semifinal and title games of the Big West tournament, Cartwright averaged 24.8 DK points, 13.5 real points and two steals across both outings to help earn his team a tournament bid. He’s put up at least 21 DK points in four of the last six games - all as the main point guard, as Worku got hurt eight minutes into first matchup of that stretch. Although this game will be low-scoring, Cartwright can still 5x his salary on both sites with the role he’s currently playing as a starter.
Cartier Diarra - KSU ($4,400 DK / $4,400 FD)
The big injury news on this slate centers on Kansas State and Dean Wade, who is very doubtful to play Friday vs. UC Irvine with a foot injury. Wade also recently missed both of K-State’s games in the Big 12 tournament and in those contests, it was Diarra who played extended minutes as he returned from his own injury that kept him out for eight games this past month. In the Wildcats’ tournament loss to Iowa State, Diarra played 34 minutes (his most since early January) and put up 30+ DK points with 15 real points scored, seven rebounds, two assists and a steal. Kansas State may need to lean on the sophomore’s energy and fresh legs again on Friday to avoid an upset. On that note, head coach Bruce Weber mentioned Diarra specifically when asked Thursday about who needs to step up in Wade’s absence.
Other Guards to Consider:
- Jarron Cumberland - CIN ($8,700 DK / $8,200 FD)
- Ty Jerome - UVA ($7,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
- Armoni Brooks - HOU ($6,800 DK / $6,600 FD)
- Tyson Carter - MSST ($5,400 DK / $5,200 FD)
- Khalil Iverson - WISC ($5,400 DK / $5,000 FD)
- Jordan Goldwire - DUKE ($3,000 DK / $3,300 FD)
Forwards
Zion Williamson - DUKE ($11,100 DK / $10,100 FD)
Much like Murray State’s Ja Morant on Thursday, Zion Williamson owns the highest ceiling of anyone on Friday - but it obviously will cost you to roster him as the slate’s most expensive player by a wide margin. Still, Zion can easily return 50+ DK points in what should be a blowout win for Duke vs. North Dakota State. In case you missed it, the dynamic freshman missed 6+ games recently with a knee injury but he returned to full strength in the ACC tournament and went right back to producing like the best player in college basketball. In those three games to end the season, Zion averaged 27 points scored, 10 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 49.3 DK points per outing - including a pair of 50-burger fantasy performances vs. Syracuse and North Carolina. The presumed No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick is no stranger to 50+ DFS points, either. In the previous six games before his injury, Williamson put up 50+ DK points three different times and averaged 49.6 DK points. If you find the salary in your lineups, rostering Zion is almost a guaranteed 40-50 fantasy points - even if Duke wins easily and he plays less minutes. He’s that good.
Luke Maye - UNC ($8,800 DK / $8,400 FD)
If Zion is too expensive for your taste, Luke Maye is also a very viable pay-up option as he should have a huge statistical game on Friday. The North Carolina senior is the team’s best rebounder and a double-double machine - getting double-digit rebounds and points in five of the past eight games while averaging 13.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and 37 DK points over the last ten outings. Meanwhile, Iona is very poor on the offensive and defensive boards with undersized bigs who likely won’t be able to contain Maye’s excellent rebounding ability on both ends. The Tar Heels will likely blow out the 16-seeded Gaels, but Maye should easily be able to put up his 35-40 DK points before moving to the bench late.
Reggie Perry - MSST ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
Despite Liberty having a real shot at this 12-5 upset, the Flames will have a tough time dealing with Perry in the paint. Since permanently entering the starting rotation in early February, Perry played a huge role in getting Mississippi State to the tournament on both ends of the floor. The 6’10” freshman was among the top five in the conference in combined rebounding rate and he’s racked up three double-doubles in the last six games. Liberty, meanwhile, is poor on the offensive boards and frankly doesn’t have the size to contain Perry. In the past ten games, Perry is averaging 27.3 DK points, 12.5 real points and 8.8 rebounds - including a recent seven-game stretch this past month when he put up 29.3 DK points, 13.4 points and 9.4 boards. If Mississippi State wants to avoid an upset on Friday, it’ll likely lean on Perry inside to get the job done.
Tariq Owens - TTU ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
If you’re looking for a matchup made in heaven, look no further than Owens vs. Northern Kentucky on Friday. Owens’ 12.3% block rate is the nation’s 11th-best mark (of all 2,000+ players rated by KenPom) and he has three blocks in each of the past four games. On the other side, Northern Kentucky gets its shots blocked at one of the country’s worst rates - making Owens extremely attractive at this affordable salary. The 6’10” senior anchors the paint for the nation’s top-ranked defense and he should be hosting a block party against the 14-seeded Norse. Over the past four games, Owens is averaging 28.8 DK points with two separate outings of at least 13 rebounds and three blocked shots.
Javin DeLaurier - DUKE ($5,100 DK / $4,600 FD)
Although the Blue Devils thankfully have Zion Williamson back healthy, they are still dealing with a couple other injuries in the frontcourt. Jack White will be out Friday with a hamstring injury while Marques Bolden is surprisingly expected back, but he’s missed the last 3+ games with a knee injury. While Bolden was out, DeLaurier started all three of Duke’s ACC tournament games and he averaged 22.2 DK points in the four outings without Bolden. Even with Bolden back, we should still see 20+ minutes from DeLaurier in what will likely be a blowout win over 16-seed North Dakota State. The Bison are very poor on the offensive boards and prone to getting their shots blocked - both stats that play into DeLaurier’s skill set.
Other Forwards to Consider:
- Grant Williams - TENN ($9,500 DK / $9,000 FD)
- Zylan Cheatham - ASU ($8,400 DK / $8,000 FD)
- Kristian Doolittle - OU ($6,900 DK / $7,300 FD)
- Tacko Fall - UCF ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)
- Makol Mawien - KSU ($4,400 DK / $4,500 FD)
- Jack Salt - UVA ($3,900 DK / $3,900 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Justin Robinson, VT - $7,400
G: Cartier Diarra, KSU - $4,400
G: Robert Cartwright, UCIR - $4,900
F: Luke Maye, UNC - $8,800
F: Reggie Perry, MSST - $6,400
F: Tariq Owens, TTU - $6,100
U: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $6,900
U: Javin DeLaurier, DUKE - $5,100
Example Lineup on FanDuel EARLY:
G: Luguentz Dort, ASU - $7,400
G: Jarron Cumberland, CIN - $8,200
G: Ty Jerome, UVA - $7,900
G: Cartier Diarra, KSU - $4,400
F: Tariq Owens, TTU - $6,200
F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $7,300
F: Makol Mawien, KSU - $4,500
U: Jack Salt, UVA - $3,900
Example Lineup on FanDuel LATE:
G: Cameron Johnson, UNC - $8,100
G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $5,200
G: Justin Robinson, VT - $7,500
G: Malik Crowfield, VCU - $3,600
F: Reggie Perry, MSST - $6,000
F: Luke Maye, UNC - $8,400
F: Javin DeLaurier, DUKE - $4,600
U: Armoni Brooks, HOU - $6,600