Congratulations, college basketball fans. You made it to Selection Sunday! Before we start filling out our brackets though, let’s dive into one last DFS CBB slate of conference tournament season as the SEC, Big Ten and AAC crowns will be handed out today.

Looking at the predicted point totals for each of the three games, you can tell right away that the Auburn-Tennessee matchup will the highest-scoring by far with the other two title games likely being slower-paced and low-scoring in general. Still, though, every team/game are in play today with just a 3-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough individual matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, points spread and implied point totals (as predicted by KenPom).

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!

 

Games On The Slate:

  • Auburn vs. Tennessee - 1 pm ET (TENN -4 / 154 Implied Total)

  • Cincinnati vs. Houston - 3:15 pm ET (HOU -4 / 128 Implied Total)

  • Michigan vs. Michigan State - 3:30 pm ET (MSU -1 / 135 Implied Total)


 

Guards

Cassius Winston - MSU ($9,100 DK / $8,700 FD)

Michigan State fans (and CBB DFS players) got a brief scare following Friday’s Big Ten tournament victory over Ohio State when head coach Tom Izzo revealed his star point guard was dealing with a toe injury he suffered against Michigan in the regular season finale. Yet, Cassius Winston looked pretty darn healthy yesterday when he went out and still put up 21 points, six assists and 32 DK points to send the Spartans to the conference title game. The injury clearly hasn’t affected his play and he should be at the top of our consideration today as Michigan State look for a clean sweep over their in-state rivals. In his previous two matchups vs. Michigan this year (both MSU wins), Winston averaged 25 real points, 40 DK points, 7.5 assists and three rebounds as he frankly outplayed his positional counterpart on the other side (Zavier Simpson). Both those performances have come in the last month when Winston put up at least 32 DK points in eight of nine games - including a stretch of three straight outings of 43 DK points or more, one of which came against Michigan.

 

Bryce Brown - AUB ($6,300 DK / $5,700 FD)

With both teams in this SEC title game expected to score 75+ points - by far the highest total on the slate - we definitely want exposure to both sides, and Brown might be the best bang-for-your-buck from either team because of a very favorable matchup. Brown is Auburn’s most active three-point shooter and he’s shooting 43% from deep during conference play - the 5th-best mark in the SEC. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense is one of the conference’s worst in terms of defending the perimeter and they actually allow the second-highest percentage of opposing points to the three-pointer of all 14 SEC teams. When Brown faced the Vols in the regular season finale a week ago, he went 4-for-9 from three-point range en route to 16 real points and 28+ DK points. Since that outing, Brown is averaging 11 three-point attempts in his three SEC tournament games (making 39% of them) and has been the Tigers’ best deep threat. Tennessee will certainly be clogging the paint today (as they usually do with Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield) and it’ll be up to Brown to get hot from the perimeter to keep the game close.

 

Jordan Bowden - TENN ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD)

Although there aren’t many value plays on this shorter slate, Bowden represents the cheapest way to get exposure to a Tennessee offense projected to score the most points of any team today. The junior doesn’t start, but he still gets 25-30 minutes as the Volunteers’ sixth-man who can provide instant offense off the bench. In the last four games, Bowden has put up at least nine real points, five rebounds and 20 DK points each time - including a solid game against Auburn a week ago. In that regular season finale matchup, he scored 16 points with six boards, a block, a steal and 29+ DK points while going 3-for-7 from three-point range. This is the type of performance we had come to expect from Bowden earlier this year before he began slumping towards the end of SEC play. If he’s back to regularly scoring double-digit points - like he did in 10 of 11 games to begin conference action - and producing enough in the other stat categories, we can safely expect another 4x return at this affordable price on both sites.

 

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Admiral Schofield - TENN ($7,900 DK / $7,700 FD)

  • Corey Davis Jr. - HOU ($7,800 DK / $7,100 FD)

  • Jordan Bone - TENN ($7,400 DK / $6,900 FD)

  • Nate Hinton - HOU ($5,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

  • Samir Doughty - AUB ($4,600 DK / $4,700 FD)


 

Forwards

Grant Williams - TENN ($9,300 DK / $8,900 FD)

Although he’s the salary king on both sites, Williams likely owns the highest fantasy floor and ceiling of anyone in action today. Over the last ten games, the junior is averaging 35.7 DK points, 17.6 real points and eight rebounds - including a monster effort against Auburn in the regular season finale a week ago when he put up 25 points scored, nine boards, two blocks and 43+ DK points. During yesterday’s crucial win over Kentucky, Williams had 34.75 DK points with 20 points, seven rebounds and one each of blocks, steals and assists. At 6-foot-7, he’s on the smaller end of forwards in the SEC but he’s had no problem dominating the paint on both ends as Tennessee’s go-to scorer. The matchup today vs. Auburn is another favorable one - the Tigers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference and simply don’t have the size or talent to match up with Williams down low - especially with center Austin Wiley still playing a limited role in his return from injury. With minimal value options on today’s short slate, you’ll likely have to choose between Williams and Michigan State’s Cassius Winston - but we try to sort that out for you as you’ll see in the example lineups below.

 

Kenny Goins - MSU ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD)

Michigan State received good news on Friday when senior forward Nick Ward returned to the lineup just in time for the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments. It was reasonable to expect Kenny Goins to take a step back in playing time and DFS production with his teammate back - and he did on Friday - but he was right back to returning 5x value yesterday vs. Wisconsin. In the semifinal win, Goins put up 40.5 DK points thanks to his 13 real points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. It seems as though the Spartans will continue to ease Ward back into the rotation (as he’s only logged a combined 25 minutes off the bench in his two games back from injury) - which is now good news for Goins’ fantasy value today. In his two previous matchups vs. Michigan this year, Goins averaged 34+ DK points, 12.5 real points and 13.5 rebounds - including a monster 16-rebound, 2-block performance a week ago against the Wolverines. Although the senior’s salary is at a season-high right now, he’s still been able to post big numbers in this matchup before and could be a nice pivot off of Grant Williams.

 

Aaron Henry - MSU ($4,500 DK / $4,900 FD)

The value plays at forward today are admittedly scarce and Henry represents the lowest you can comfortably go and still expect a 4x return. The freshman entered the Spartans’ starting lineup in mid-January when the team was begging for healthy bodies - and he’s yet to relinquish that role even with Nick Ward now back healthy. In the past four games, Henry is averaging nearly 23 DK points and has put up at least 24 DK points in three of those outings. Even with Ward back in the rotation during this Big Ten tournament, Henry is still getting 25-30 minutes at the small forward position and he’s coming off an impressive 11-rebound performance yesterday vs. Wisconsin. When Michigan State faced Michigan last Saturday, Henry had 24.5 DK points with an even stat line of nine points scored, eight boards, two assists and a block. As long as the playing time is there, Henry is involved just enough on both ends of the floor to return value again today.

 

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Chuma Okeke - AUB ($7,600 DK / $7,800 FD)

  • Ignas Brazdeikis - MICH ($6,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

  • Nysier Brooks - CIN ($5,400 DK / $5,900 FD)

  • Isaiah Livers - MICH ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD)


 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $9,100

G: Jordan Bowden, TENN - $5,000

G: Nate Hinton, HOU - $5,100

F: Grant Williams, TENN - $9,300

F: Kenny Goins, MSU - $7,300

F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $4,500

U: Isaiah Livers, MICH - $5,000

U: Samir Doughty, AUB - $4,600

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Bryce Brown, AUB - $5,700

G: Jordan Bowden, TENN - $5,200

G: Nate Hinton, HOU - $4,800

G: Corey Davis, HOU - $7,100

F: Kenny Goins, MSU - $7,500

F: Admiral Schofield, TENN - $7,700

F: Aaron Henry, MSU - $4,900

U: Jordan Bone, TENN - $6,900