Outside of the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight, we get one of the most entertaining college basketball weekends of the year with the conference tournaments nearing their conclusion, top-tier programs fighting for seeding rights and bubble teams attempting to steal bids.
Today’s early DFS CBB slate - tipping at 1 pm ET - includes both sets of SEC and Big Ten semifinals matchups with an AAC semifinal game between Houston and Memphis smack-dab in the middle. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have all five games on their early slates. There’s also a night slate with exciting games, but we’re just focusing on the earlier Saturday matchups for this Playbook.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough individual matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, points spread and implied point totals (as predicted by KenPom).
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
Houston vs. Memphis - 3 pm ET (HOU -6 / 150 Implied Total)
Tennessee vs. Kentucky - 3:30 pm ET (TENN -1 / 145 Implied Total)
Game To Fade:
Minnesota vs. Michigan - 3:30 pm ET (MICH -11 / 131 Implied Total)
Guards
Corey Davis - HOU ($7,600 DK / $7,200 FD)
Armoni Brooks - HOU ($6,600 DK / $6,700 FD)
Whenever Houston is on a DFS CBB slate, it’s always tough to choose between Davis and Brooks for your lineups because both are capable of big offensive games depending on which one gets hotter shooting-wise. At first glance, Brooks is clearly the more affordable option on both sites - but it’s Davis who’s owned the higher fantasy ceiling and floor lately. The senior Davis is averaging 20.8 real points and 31.6 DK points over the last ten games is coming off back-to-back outings of 44 DK points (31 points scored) and 34.5 DK points (22 real points) against Cincinnati in the season finale and UConn in the AAC quarters, respectively. Davis sees a higher shot volume than Brooks but is sometimes pure scoring dependant as he doesn’t offer much upside in assists or rebounds. Brooks, meanwhile, is averaging 12 real points, 7.5 rebounds and 26 DK points over the last ten outings and recently put up 41 DK points vs. SMU a week ago when he scored 20 points and grabbed 10 boards. The junior is the more active rebounder than his teammate and also scored 22 real points and 37 DK points when Houston faced Memphis in their only matchup back in January. Either way, you can’t go wrong with either Houston guard today as this is a pace-up matchup vs. Memphis, who runs at the fastest tempo in the conference and can give up points just as easily as they can score themselves. Brooks definitely gives you more salary relief, but Davis is the hotter shooter right now who is likely determined to get a conference tournament crown in his final collegiate season.
Jordan Bone - TENN ($7,200 DK / $6,800 FD)
Rostering any Tennessee players in your DFS lineups can be tough to manage because the team spreads its offensive production pretty evenly across a core 6-7 players. Bone, though, has been impressive against Kentucky in the previous two meetings this year and his fantasy floor remains higher than most because of his assist numbers as the Vols’ lead ball-handler. The junior point guard averaged 35.5 DK points across both games vs. UK during the regular season - highlighted by his 27 real points, six assists/rebounds and two steals for 41+ DK points against Kentucky just two weeks ago. Bone’s complete package was on full display yesterday in Tennessee’s win over Mississippi State when he put up 34.5 DK points with 14 real points scored, nine assists, four boards and a steal. Again, Bone will easily give you 20+ DK points at his lowest because of his high assist rate (third in the SEC) and propensity to be an active rebounder and on-ball defender.
Khalil Iverson - WISC ($5,300 DK / $5,400 FD)
Playing CBB DFS during tournament season is as much about matchups as it is riding players when they get hot - no matter how good or bad they were throughout the year. Right now, Iverson is that player for Wisconsin. The senior has started every game this season, yet was virtually a non-factor in fantasy because he only scored in double-digits twice before Feb. 18 with not much upside in other stats. In the seven games since, though, Iverson is averaging 13.6 real points and 27.3 DK points and has arguably been the Badgers’ best player outside of Ethan Happ. His DK salary has now increased more than $1,000 since the start of March because of a few monster performances in the past three games. The 6’5” wing player put up back-to-back double-doubles to end the regular season (including a 22-point, 14-rebound effort in the finale) and then followed up with 14 points and 22 DK points in yesterday’s Big Ten victory over Nebraska. Today’s semifinal matchup with Michigan State is a notably tougher one, but Iverson still needs to be considered in all formats with the hot streak he’s on.
Foster Loyer - MSU ($3,400 DK / $3,500 FD)
Speaking of players who emerge in March, allow me to introduce you to Foster Loyer. The Spartans’ freshman was a 4-star recruit and former “Mr. Basketball” of Michigan, yet found himself buried on the bench this season with very minimal floor time and only one made three-pointer throughout conference play. That is until yesterday, when head coach Tom Izzo needed the youngster to step up in the Big Ten quarterfinals. In the win over Ohio State, Loyer played a season-high 18 minutes off the bench, hit 4-of-5 three-pointers for 14 points and provided 25+ DK points. After the game, Izzo revealed that his star point guard Cassius Winston suffered a toe injury against Michigan last Sunday and missed significant practice time this past week leading up to the Big Ten tournament. That might help explain why Winston played just 22 minutes yesterday and Loyer got extended playing time with conference bragging rights on the line. With the NCAA Tournament looming, Michigan State may opt to rest Winston more often than not today so that he’s healthy for the more important postseason run - meaning Loyer could see increased minutes yet again, especially after his performance yesterday.
Other Guards to Consider:
Jeremiah Martin - MEM ($9,400 DK / $8,700 FD)
Amir Coffey - MINN ($6,900 DK / $6,700 FD)
Tyler Herro - UK ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD)
Jalen Hudson - UF ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)
Forwards
Jordan Murphy - MINN ($9,200 DK / $8,500 FD)
This Minnesota-Michigan game will surely be low-scoring overall, but Murphy can still provide a big DFS performance just as he did in his two previous meetings vs. the Wolverines this season. Across both games, the senior averaged 16.5 points, 13 rebounds and 34 DK points despite Minnesota scoring only 57 and 60 total points in the January and February losses, respectively. Michigan is an elite defensive team, but they are one of the worst Big Ten programs when it comes to rebounding. Meanwhile, Murphy is among the top five in the conference in offensive and defensive rebounding and should clean up the boards on both ends today - as was evident earlier this year when he grabbed a combined 26 rebounds vs. Michigan (14 of which came on the defensive glass). The 6’7” power forward is also in the midst of an impressive stretch to end the regular season - which he’s carried over into the Big Ten tournament. In the last four games, Murphy is averaging 41.25 DK points with per-game marks of 17.3 real points, 11.5 boards, 3.8 assists and one block. The top-end of the forward position today is highlighted by Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ and Tennessee’s Grant Williams, but Murphy presents a more affordable option who can still give you 40+ DK points in a plus-matchup.
PJ Washington - UK ($8,000 DK / $8,100 FD)
Reid Travis - UK ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD)
After nearly a month-long layoff, Kentucky finally got Reid Travis back healthy yesterday in their SEC tournament opener - and it’s put Washington and Travis himself back into serious consideration for your DFS CBB lineups. Washington was a safe bet for 40+ DK points when Travis first went down in February, but he’s struggled lately as teams began double-teaming him more and Travis’ replacements (Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery) couldn’t offer enough to allow him to reach his fantasy potential. With Travis back, though, Washington returned to form in Friday’s win over Alabama as he put up 44 DK points with a double-double and four blocks. On the other hand, Travis only saw 23 minutes off the bench in his first game back but he still had eight points, seven rebounds and three blocks in limited playing time. Expect to see Travis’ minutes and usage begin to ramp up, though, as we get deeper into March and the NCAA Tournament right around the corner. Kentucky will need Travis today vs. Tennessee as they try to fight for an SEC tournament crown and prove their worth as a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. On DraftKings especially, Travis’ salary is very affordable as he has the upside to return 5x or 6x value with a reasonable floor of 4x value in what should be a highly competitive, high-scoring game.
Keyontae Johnson - UF ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
Johnson was an outstanding DFS play earlier in conference action when his salary sat comfortably in the low-end 5k range yet he consistently returned 5x or 6x value as one of Florida’s best players. His production has been down a bit lately, but the freshman’s last two outings have reminded us of what he can be at his best. Johnson put up 37.5 and 42.5 DK points against Arkansas and LSU, respectively, in the first two games of the SEC tournament as he looked like the best player on the court for the majority of both contests. He posted a double-double in each game with 20 points and 12 rebounds vs. Arkansas and then 16 points, 10 boards and four steals vs. top-seeded LSU. At 6’5” in the stretch-four role for Florida, Johnson is a matchup problem for nearly every team - and he should find success yet again today vs. Auburn. Like we pointed out with Iverson above, Johnson is one of those players that’s tough to fade right now as he’s clearly in a groove and seems determined to prove Florida is worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Ethan Happ - WISC ($10,800 DK / $9,100 FD)
Grant Williams - TENN ($9,300 DK / $8,900 FD)
Jon Teske - MICH ($6,400 DK / $7,100 FD)
Danjel Purifoy - AUB ($3,300 DK / $3,300 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Jordan Bone, TENN - $7,200
G: Armoni Brooks, HOU - $6,600
G: Khalil Iverson, WISC - $5,300
F: Jordan Murphy, MINN - $9,200
F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $5,700
F: Reid Travis, UK - $5,600
U: Foster Loyer, MSU - $3,400
U: Tyler Herro, UK - $6,700
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Jordan Bone, TENN - $6,800
G: Foster Loyer, MSU - $3,500
G: Khalil Iverson, WISC - $5,400
G: Corey Davis, HOU - $7,200
F: Jordan Murphy, MINN - $8,500
F: Ethan Happ, WISC - $9,100
F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $6,200
U: Danjel Purifoy, AUB - $3,300