Just another day in March and another DFS CBB slate filled with conference tournament action! On tonight’s main slates - tipping at 7 pm ET - we get second and third-round action from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, ACC and Pac-12 tourneys. Unlike yesterday, we now have some marquee teams in action with five Top 25 programs on the docket and plenty of bubble teams fighting for a spot in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

DraftKings has a 12-game main slate tonight while FanDuel has an 11-gamer - the SMU-Tulsa matchup is the outlier on DK. Obviously there are conference tournament games going on all day long, but for the purposes of this Playbook - let’s focus solely on the main slates at night.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
 

Games To Target:

  • Louisville vs. North Carolina - 7 pm ET (UNC -5 / 153 Implied Total)

  • St. John’s vs. Marquette - 7 pm ET (MARQ -5 / 151 Implied Total)

  • UCLA vs. Arizona State - 9 pm ET (ASU -3 / 157 Implied Total)

  • Georgetown vs. Seton Hall - 9:30 pm ET (SHU -3 / 152 Implied Total)

Games To Fade:

  • Penn State vs. Minnesota - 7 pm ET (PSU -1 / 137 Implied Total)

  • West Virginia vs. Texas Tech - 7 pm ET (TTU -15 / 139 Implied Total)

  • Texas vs. Kansas - 9 pm ET (KU -4 / 140 Implied Total)

 

Guards

Shamorie Ponds - STJN ($9,600 DK / $8,900 FD)

Tonight’s top-tier of expensive guards is deeper than normal - with so many high-scoring games on the slate - but Ponds deserves the position’s highest DK price tag as he’s been outstanding to end the season. With St. John’s trying to build their NCAA Tournament resume this last month, Ponds has returned to the do-everything role we were so familiar with earlier this year. The junior point guard is averaging more than 35 DK points, 18 real points scored, four assists, four rebounds and two steals in the past ten games. That across-the-board production was on full display yesterday when he anchored St. John’s to a first-round victory over DePaul in the Big East tourney - Ponds put up 40.5 DK points with 18 real points, 11 combined rebounds/assists and three steals. Fortunately for us, the matchup tonight gets even better for Ponds. In his two games against Marquette this season, he averaged 27 real points, seven boards, 3.5 assists and two steals for a per-game mark of 44.8 DK points. In those outings, Ponds clearly outplayed Marquette stud Markus Howard both times and was the best player on the floor by a wide margin. Expect Ponds to be at that level again tonight as St. John’s look to play themselves out of the bubble conversation with a marquee win over a Top 25 program.

Myles Powell - SHU ($9,300 DK / $8,700 FD)

Unfortunately we can’t fit all the high-priced guards in one lineup, but Powell is certainly an acceptable pivot off Shamorie Ponds and Co. - and he might even be a better play considering his recent hot streak. In the final ten games to end the regular season, Powell averaged 41.9 DK points, 25.5 real points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.4 steals per outing - including a three-game stretch to end the year when he averaged nearly 30 real points and 46 DK points per game. The Seton Hall point guard was particularly impressive in his two games against Georgetown this season - scoring 35 and 30 real points, respectively, and averaging 44 DK points across both contests. The Hoyas have been susceptible to big games from opposing guards in Big East play because their own guards are young and soft on-ball defenders. That was definitely evident when Powell faced them earlier this year - and should be the case yet again tonight. The junior will also be playing with some extra motivation as he tries to lead Seton Hall to yet another resume-building win as the Pirates currently sit on the tournament bubble and are coming off back-to-back wins over Villanova and Marquette to end the season.

Sam Hauser - MARQ ($7,700 DK / $7,300 FD)

Hauser’s DFS production, shot volume and shooting percentages have all been inconsistent lately, but it’s a matchup vs. St. John’s that makes him more attractive today. When Marquette faced the Johnnies earlier this season, Hauser was able to have big games because Markus Howard struggled offensively due to Shamorie Ponds’ tough on-ball defending in both outings. Howard usually dominates the offensive usage and shots share for Marquette, but it was Hauser who had to pick up the slack on both ends in these games. The junior averaged 34.3 DK points in those two previous meetings - including a clutch 19 points, 11 rebounds and 39+ DK points in the most recent matchup in early February. Taller guards and forwards have had success against undersized St. John’s throughout conference play - and the 6’8” Hauser (who’s forward-eligible on DraftKings) has taken advantage of that matchup both times. Not only does Hauser have the advantage on the defensive glass, but he also forces his own defenders to guard him from three-point range - where he made five from deep in those two games.

Buddy Boeheim - SYR ($4,700 DK / $4,500 FD)

With Tyus Battle sidelined in Syracuse’s ACC tournament opener yesterday, Boeheim moved into the starting lineup for the first time since early November and was arguably the Orange’s best player with a career-night performance. The freshman scored a season-high 20 points with three made three-pointers, four assists, six rebounds and two steals for a slate-breaking 37.5 DK points. Boeheim should be in line for another start and extended minutes vs. Duke tonight as Battle (back) is likely out again - head coach Jim Boeheim said his star guard is “realistically two or three days away from being able to play” after Wednesday’s win over Pittsburgh. Now, we can’t expect a repeat performance from the younger Boeheim against Duke’s tough defense, but the increase in playing time, offensive usage and shot volume certainly gives him a higher floor than normal. At his salary on both sites, Boeheim can reasonably return 4x or 5x value as Syracuse will need his scoring to pull off the upset.

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Jaylen Hands - UCLA ($8,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

  • Savion Flagg - TA&M ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)

  • Jermaine Haley - WVU ($6,700 DK / $6,700 FD)

  • Tyson Carter - MSST ($5,500 DK / $6,400 FD)

  • Jared Rhoden - SHU ($3,400 DK / $3,700 FD)

 

Forwards

Luke Maye - UNC ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD)

At this point, you know the deal with Luke Maye as one of North Carolina’s best players. He’s a double-double machine and a safe bet for 30-40 fantasy points on a daily basis. Although tonight’s matchup vs. Louisville is a tougher one on paper, Maye has been an especially strong rebounder to end the regular season. The senior has at least 10 rebounds in six straight games (and nine of the last 11 contests) and grabbed a massive 36 combined boards in the last two contests vs. Duke and Boston College. Again, Louisville is no slouch on the glass - but Maye had no trouble in the paint in UNC’s two meetings with them earlier this season. In both games, Maye had 11 rebounds each time and averaged 14.5 real points and 36.8 DK points despite Louisville boasting size and talent at the forward position. North Carolina, though, has been playing lights-out in the past month with a fully healthy squad - and it’s allowed Maye to become extremely efficient in scoring and rebounding. His most recent stat line vs. the Cardinals in early February may be indicative of what’s to come tonight - 20 points, 11 rebounds, two assists and a steal.

Jessie Govan - GTWN ($8,700 DK / $8,000 FD)

Game-log watchers may ignore Govan at this price with two less-than-impressive games to end the regular season - but this matchup vs. Seton Hall should get him back on track. Govan was dominant in his first two meetings against the Pirates this season - averaging 37.5 DK points, 20.5 real points and nine rebounds across both games. The 6’10” senior was particularly impressive just two weeks ago when he put up 21 points, 12 rebounds and 41+ DK points vs. Seton Hall in a double-overtime victory. In that game, Govan led the Hoyas in scoring, offensive usage, shot volume and free-throw attempts as he was being fed touches in the post and was no match inside. Among all Big East players, Govan has top 5 marks in defensive rebounding, shots share and block rate - all numbers that play into his fantasy ceiling of 40+ DFS points in what should be a high-scoring, fast-paced matchup.

Jalen Hill - UCLA ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD)

The UCLA rotations have been a roller-coaster experience ever since head coach Steve Alford was fired in late January, but Hill is the latest beneficiary of extended playing time. Hill started the season-finale last week and promptly put up 12 points, 13 rebounds and 33 DK points in a season-high 31 minutes. The 6’10” freshman was back on the bench for the first round of the Pac 12 tournament yesterday - but he still had 12 points, 10 boards and 31 DK points in 26 minutes of action. His increase in playing time (and DFS production) has come largely at the expense of fellow UCLA frosh Moses Brown, who has struggled to be effective offensively and can’t stay out of foul trouble lately. The Bruins got the win over Stanford on Wednesday with Hill playing crunch-time minutes - and simply outplaying Brown overall. Because of his two recent outbursts, we see a slight price increase on FanDuel - but his DraftKings salary presents the opportunity for another 5x or 6x return if the minutes are there vs. Arizona State tonight.

Emmitt Matthews - WVU ($4,100 DK / $4,600 FD)

Matthews has come through for us a few times lately and his salary remains very affordable on both sites as he continues to exceed value. The freshman has started eight straight games for the Mountaineers and is now locked into guaranteed minutes despite playing sparingly off the bench for much of the season. Head coach Bob Huggins has fooled around with his lineups during conference play, but he’s now stuck with a core recently that firmly includes Matthews alongside Derek Culver at forward. He’s no longer at the sub-4k price tag we saw as recently as last week, but Matthews has still put up at least 23 DK points in three of the last four games. Although he doesn’t offer much upside in pure scoring or shot volume, Matthews provides solid production in rebounds, assists and steals to easily return 5x value again - even in a tougher matchup vs. Texas Tech. If you need any extra motivation to play Matthews, this may be your last opportunity to roll him out as a value play as West Virginia’s season could be over with a loss tonight.

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Zylan Cheatham - ASU ($8,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

  • Reggie Perry - MSST ($6,300 DK / $6,000 FD)

  • Dylan Osetkowski - TEX ($6,200 DK / $6,200 FD)

  • Paschal Chukwu - SYR ($5,100 DK / $5,100 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Myles Powell, SHU - $9,300

G: Buddy Boeheim, SYR - $4,700

G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $5,500

F: Jessie Govan, GTWN - $8,700

F: Jalen Hill, UCLA - $4,800

F: Emmitt Matthews, WVU - $4,100

U: Sam Hauser, MARQ - $7,700

U: Paschal Chukwu, SYR - $5,100

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Shamorie Ponds, STJN - $8,900

G: Buddy Boeheim, SYR - $4,500

G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $6,400

G: Jared Rhoden, SHU - $3,700

F: Jessie Govan, GTWN - $8,000

F: Luke Maye, UNC - $8,800

F: Emmitt Matthews, WVU - $4,600

U: Paschal Chukwu, SYR - $5,100