Welcome back to the mid-week DFS CBB slates! With plenty of high-priced studs to fit in, there are also tons of value plays on tonight’s slate with some notable injuries to pay attention to. We’ll break down all of that and more in the Tuesday, Feb. 26 Playbook!   

FanDuel has a 10-game slate, while DraftKings has a 11-gamer with the Pittsburgh-Miami matchup as the outliers. All in all, tonight’s games get going at 7 pm ET with nine Top 25 teams in action - highlighted by a top 15 battle between Virginia Tech and Florida State.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!


Games To Target:

South Carolina @ Texas A&M - 7 pm ET (TA&M -4 / 144 Implied Total)

North Carolina @ Boston College - 8 pm ET (UNC -12 / 158 Implied Total)

Mississippi State @ Tennessee - 9 pm ET (TEN -8 / 150 Implied Total)

Games To Fade:

Wake Forest @ Duke - 7 pm ET (DUKE -29 / 153 Implied Total)

Pittsburgh @ Miami - 8 pm ET (MIA -5 / 135 Implied Total) - DK ONLY

Auburn @ Alabama - 9 pm ET (AUB -3 / 147 Implied Total)

Guards

Cassius Winston - MSU ($9,700 DK / $9,000 FD) - If you’re paying up at guard tonight, Winston is the safest of the top-tier options on this slate. The Spartans’ playmaker has been one of the best point guards in the country this season - and his DFS value has risen dramatically with Nick Ward out. The junior put up at least 43 DK points in each of the last three games Ward has missed, scoring 20 or more points in every game as well. During this span, Winston’s averages of 25 real points, nine assists and 44.5 DK points are all noticeably higher than his season-long marks of 19.2 real points, 7.6 assists and 36.5 DK points per game. Simply put, he’s had to shoulder more of the offensive load with Ward out lately - and he’s returning more than 4x value even at this expensive salary. Be cautious with rostering Winston, though, as it may strain the rest of your lineup building with not as many viable value plays as we’ve had on previous slates. Still, we can expect another 40+ DK points from him again tonight with Ward sitting out a fourth straight.

Savion Flagg - TA&M ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) - Flagg has not been worth his expensive price tag for much of this season with inconsistent scoring, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s done lately. Outside of a dud performance at LSU last week, Flagg is averaging 40.3 DK points, 21.5 real points and 9.3 rebounds in four of the last five games while shooting 52.4% from the field (32-for-61). Tonight, he gets a pace-up matchup vs. South Carolina - who run at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the conference compared to Texas A&M’s middle-of-the-pack rate. Even better - Flagg is averaging seven more DFS points at home than he is on the road and also put up 24 real points, seven boards and 40 DK points the last time these teams faced a couple weeks ago. All signs are pointing to Flagg having another 40+ DK points again tonight - but restrict your exposure to GPP’s as he does have the tendency to go cold shooting-wise and bust your lineup on his off nights.

Lamonte Turner - TENN ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) - Tennessee’s players are always tough to predict in DFS because the Vols spread their production pretty evenly across five or six players with either one of them a possible candidate to lead the team in scoring on a game-to-game basis. Which player that may be is the hard part as they’ve had a different leading scorer in each of the last three games. Turner, though, remains way to cheap for what his upside is as a 30-minute starter with double-digit shot attempts in each of the last five outings - plus he just put up 32 DK points two games ago. The junior will provide seven combined rebounds/assists, but it just depends if he’s hitting his shots or not. Lately he’s been on a cold streak shooting-wise, but that could change tonight as Mississippi State does not defend the perimeter well and Turner is a 33% three-point shooter in conference play and is averaging nearly six attempts from deep over the last ten games. We definitely want exposure to this Tennessee offense with one of the slate’s highest team totals, and Turner represents the best value in terms of upside.

Tyson Carter - MSST ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) - Although Carter gets a slight price increase tonight, he’s still too cheap for what he’s done since entering Mississippi State’s starting rotation five games ago for the suspended Nick Weatherspoon. Carter is averaging 27 DK points and 16 real points in those five starts and he’s coming off back-to-back 20-point games on 14-for-29 shooting from the field (48.3%). Plus, the junior shooting guard should get plenty of looks from three-point range tonight. Tennessee’s defense is dominant in the paint but they are beatable from the perimeter - allowing the conference’s highest percentage of opposing points via the three-pointer. Over his last three starts, Carter is shooting 46.4% from three-point range (13-for-28) and launched a whopping 14 shots from outside vs. Auburn last time out. A matchup vs. Tennessee’s vaunted D may seem risky at first glance, but the numbers definitely favor Carter to continue returning 5x value tonight.

Other Guards to Consider:

Quinndary Weatherspoon - MSST ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Cameron Johnson - UNC ($8,000 DK / $8,100 FD)

Anthony Lawrence - MIA ($6,700 DK ONLY)

Hassani Gravett - SCAR ($6,200 DK / $6,000 FD)

Jamal Bieniemy - OU ($4,500 DK / $5,200 FD)

Jared Hamilton - BC ($4,100 DK / $4,100 FD)

Forward

Kerry Blackshear - VT ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) - If you’re familiar to these playbooks, you know we’ve been rolling out Blackshear lately with Justin Robinson out for Virginia Tech - and it’s definitely paid off. In the eight games Robinson has missed, Blackshear is averaging nearly 40 DK points per outing and he’s coming off three straight 20-point double-doubles.  Although Florida State poses a tougher matchup on paper with Mfiondu Kabengele and Christ Koumadje manning the frontcourt, Blackshear is still in play because he’s been such a beast offensively and on the boards lately. It’s no secret that Blackshear has become the top scoring option for Tech during this recent stretch - and he’s the type of play you may need to just continue to roll out until he lets you down, which hasn’t happened in the eight games Robinson’s been hurt.

Kenny Goins - MSU ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD) & Xavier Tillman - MSU ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) - Ever since Isaac Copeland went down for the year in late January, Nebraska has been very generous to opposing bigs. The Cornhuskers frankly do not have the size or rebounding ability in the paint anymore without Copeland - and they have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big Ten. Enter Kenny Goins and Xavier Tillman, who both have been getting a ton of playing time with Nick Ward still out for Michigan State. Goins owns a team-high 30.4% combined rebounding rate during conference play and is getting a larger shot volume with Ward out. Meanwhile, Tillman has put up two double-doubles in the three games Ward has missed to go along with the bigger increase in minutes (entering the starting lineup in Ward’s place). Both Spartan forwards are in play tonight with the favorable matchup - but, considering the prices on both sites, Tillman is the better value on DK while Goins is only $200 more on FD.

Kristian Doolittle - OU ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) - #FANation, you know the drill by now: Target post players against Kansas with Udoka Azubuike out for the year. The Jayhawks have been exploited in the paint by opposing bigs ever since Azubuike went down in early January as Dedric Lawson tends to play soft defense to avoid foul trouble and save his energy for the offensive end. This is where Doolittle can shine as he’s slowly become Oklahoma’s go-to scoring option with Christian James taking a back seat in shot volume lately. The junior has scored at least 15 real points in four straight games and he’s averaging 33 DK points and 9.3 rebounds during that four-game span. Don’t be scared off by Doolittle’s pedestrian 24 DK points two months ago vs. Kansas - Azubuike was still playing then and Christian James was a lot more active offensively for Oklahoma than he is now. Kansas won’t have many answers to Doolittle’s post game with Lawson taking plays off and the Jayhawk combination of Mitch Lightfoot and David McCormack lacking the skills to cause any worries.

Marques Bolden - DUKE ($4,800 DK / $5,400 FD) - Zion Williamson has not yet been ruled out for tonight’s game, but he’s still rehabbing a knee injury and would only play limited minutes (if at all) with a big matchup against UNC looming Saturday. Even if Williamson does play 10 minutes or so in this likely blowout over Wake Forest, Bolden should get a second straight start and play big minutes in the second half with the game in hand. After becoming a regular starter for Duke during conference play, the freshman was strangely sent back to the bench in the two games following Zion’s injury with Javin DeLaurier replacing him. Yet, he returned to the starting rotation over the weekend vs. Miami and was arguably the best Blue Devil out there with 15 points, 10 rebounds, two steals and a block - for a massive 34.5 DK points. It was his second straight game with 23 or more minutes with a noticeable increase in shot volume and usage with Zion Williamson out. On a slate with minimal value options, you could do worse than Bolden tonight.

Keyshawn Bryant - SCAR ($4,400 DK / $5,000 FD) - Bryant was a value play for us when he first entered South Carolina’s starting lineup back in December, but the freshman had taken a back seat in terms of shot volume for much of conference play. Yet, the recent injury to A.J. Lawson has opened up the opportunity for Bryant to get more involved in the Gamecock offense. On Saturday, he played a season-high 39 minutes and put up 32+ DK points with 15 real points (his most in nearly a month) on 12 shot attempts (his most in a game since late January). Lawson will be out again tonight, and Bryant should remain heavily involved offensively while also contributing decently enough in every other stat category to return 5x value at least.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Jordan Murphy - MINN ($9,300 DK / $8,600 FD)

Nik Popovic - BC ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

Reggie Perry - MSST ($6,600 DK / $6,200 FD)

Mfiondu Kabengele - FSU ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

Nick Richards - UK ($4,100 DK / $4,600 FD)


Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $5,600

G: Cassius Winston, MSU - $9,700

G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $5,200

F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $6,500

F: Kerry Blackshear, VT - $7,900

F: Xavier Tillman, MSU - $6,600

U: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $4,400

U: Nick Richards, UK - $4,100

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $5,600

G: Savion Flagg, TXAM - $7,700

G: Tyson Carter, MSST - $5,300

G: Jamal Bieniemy, OU - $5,200

F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $7,100

F: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $5,000

F: Kenny Goins, MSU - $7,200

U: Nik Popovic, BC - $6,900