Welcome back FA Nation to another CBB DFS Playbook! Admittedly, tonight’s slate is an ugly one with tons of low-scoring matchups and a smaller number of top-tier talent to build lineups from. Yet, that’s why we’re here - to find the diamonds in the rough and help you take home those cash games and GPP’s

Tipping off at 7 pm ET, DraftKings has a 12-game main slate while FanDuel has an 11-gamer with many of the same matchups overlapping. The UCF-South Florida game is unique to FD, while Louisville-Boston College and Cincinnati-SMU are only available on DK.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!

Games To Target:

Tennessee @ Mississippi - 7 pm ET (TENN -5 / 151 Implied Total)

DePaul @ Georgetown - 7 pm ET (GTWN -7 / 159 Implied Total)

Auburn @ Georgia - 9 pm ET (AUB -8 / 150 Implied Total)


Games To Fade:

Clemson @ Pittsburgh - 7 pm ET (CLEM -2 / 130 Implied Total)

Georgia Tech @ Virginia - 7 pm ET (UVA -22 / 116 Implied Total)

UCF @ South Florida - 7 pm ET (UCF -2 / 128 Implied Total) - FD ONLY

Florida @ Vanderbilt - 9 pm ET (UF -5 / 125 Implied Total)

 

Guards

Sam Hauser - MARQ ($7,600 DK / $7,300 FD) - When Marquette faced Villanova earlier this month, Markus Howard anchored the Golden Eagles to a home victory with 38 points on whopping 24 shot attempts. This time around? Expect ‘Nova to be determined to shut down Howard - opening up scoring opportunities for Marquette’s supporting cast. Sam Hauser, who only scored four points in that first meeting, should see a bigger workload offensively as the team’s second-leading scorer who could cause matchup problems tonight. Earlier in conference play, Hauser was regularly posting 30-40 DK points as a nightly threat to score 20-30 real points. The junior had seen a slight dip in DFS production over the last couple weeks, but he got back on track on Saturday vs. Providence with 42 DK points, 18 real points and 13 rebounds. This was what we saw from Hauser a month ago and Marquette may need that type of performance from him again tonight if Villanova sends multiple bodies at Howard - a tactic opposing defenses have begun to use more and more. Plus, the numbers point to Hauser being more productive on the road this season - shooting for higher averages from the field and from three-point range and averaging more real points and DK points on the road than at home.

Jordan Bone - TENN ($7,200 DK / $6,800 FD) - Whenever Tennessee is on the slate, we definitely want some exposure to its high-powered offense - especially tonight vs. another high-scoring team in Mississippi. The only problem? The Vols spread their scoring around pretty evenly, making it tough to pinpoint which of them will go off game-to-game. Case in point: They’ve had three different leading scorers in each of the past three games. Of course Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield have the highest ceilings of any other Tennessee player, but their fantasy floors have been right on par with Jordan Bone lately - who’s noticeably cheaper on both sites. Bone scores about 10-20 real points per game, but he’s a safe bet for at least 20 DK points nightly because of his assists and ball-handling duties as the team’s point guard. Plus, Bone is oddly shooting a lot better on the road this season - 55% from the field and 57% from three vs. 44% and 20% at home. 

Mac McClung - GTWN ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) - If you’re anything like me, you’ve experienced both sides to McClung’s DFS value this season - for better or worse. The dynamic freshman has both the upside to return 5x value (like he did two games ago vs. Villanova with nearly 35 DK points) and the bust potential to ruin your lineup (as in 10.5 DK points on Saturday vs. Creighton). McClung has certainly been frustrating to roster, but tonight he has a few things pointing towards the higher end of his value. For the majority of the season, McClung has played better at home than on the road - averaging about six more DK points per game and shooting noticeably better from the field and from three-point range (42% and 33% at home vs. 36% and 23% on the road). Plus, tonight’s matchup will likely force Georgetown to find its scoring from the perimeter as DePaul boasts two talented forwards who could cause foul troubles for Hoyas’ center Jessie Govan. McClung is the team’s best outside shooter who can get extremely hot at any time - and more often than not, that outburst will come at home.

Jase Febres - TEX ($4,300 DK / $4,700 FD) - With Kerwin Roach out for Texas, Febres moved into the starting lineup last time out and put up nearly 30 DK points in a season-high 35 minutes. Tonight, Febres may be a bit chalky as his price hasn’t moved and he’s expected to start once again. The sophomore is the Longhorns’ best three-point shooter and he launched a whopping 15 attempts from deep in Saturday’s game. In fact, only three of Febres’ 62 field-goal attempts in the past eight games have NOT been from three-point range. Now, we can’t expect 15 three-pointers again tonight for Febres, but the now-guaranteed playing time, increased shot volume and discounted price makes him a near-lock play in all formats with not much value on the slate. 

Other Guards to Consider: 

Marcquise Reed - CLEM ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

Breein Tyree - MISS ($7,900 DK / $7,600 FD)

Jordan Harris - UGA ($5,500 DK / $5,600 FD)

Devonte Bandoo - BAY ($4,800 DK / $5,300 FD)


Forwards


Chuma Okeke - AUB ($7,700 DK / $7,700 FD) - The top of the forward position tonight isn’t too appealing tonight, and Okeke might be the best “pay-up” option out there. While Jared Harper and Bryce Brown have struggled to remain consistent for Auburn, Okeke has taken over as the team’s go-to scoring option lately as a handful down low. The injury to Tigers’ forward Austin Wiley has allowed Okeke to emerge during conference play as one of the better bigs in the SEC - and with Wiley expected to sit out tonight, Okeke should see an increase in touches. Outside of a down effort last game vs. Kentucky, the sophomore had been regularly providing 30 DFS points as he can contribute in all stat categories with the potential for a monster-rebound night (like his 14 boards vs. LSU on Feb. 9) or scoring 20+ points (like his 23-point effort vs. Mississippi). Okeke struggled vs. Georgia in their first meeting this season back in early January - but frankly, Okeke was not the player he is today, scoring in double-digits in six straight games and having a larger role in the Auburn offense. 

Matt Haarms - PUR ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) - As you’re probably aware, Purdue’s offense starts and ends with Carsen Edwards this season. We can’t expect Haarms to get a large shot volume, although he has scored 17 and 18 real points in two of the past three games thanks to his ability to draw fouls and knock down his free throws. But it’s Haarms’ defensive stats that make him an attractive mid-range forward play today. With the best blocking rate in the Big Ten, the sophomore could have a field day tonight against an Illinois team that gets their shots blocked among the most in the conference. Haarms has at least two blocks in 11 of 16 conference games, including nine in the last three outings. Plus, he’s back starting the last three games for Purdue after coming off the bench for the majority of the year since mid-December. Haarms should also provide close to 10 rebounds tonight with his 7’3” frame, a solid rebounding rate and a matchup vs. a poor rebounding team in Illinois.

Mamadi Diakite - UVA ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD) - Although we generally want to stay away from this Georgia Tech-Virginia game with a very low implied total of points, Diakite could be in line for a big game. The junior doesn’t offer much upside offensively, but he helps anchor one of the best defenses in the country with his blocking and rebounding ability. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is one of the worst ACC teams in terms of their own rebounding and committing turnovers. Diakite could have a field day tonight vs. lowly Tech as he owns the best blocking rate in the conference and is top 10 in offensive rebounding, per KenPom’s metrics. People may be worried to see Diakite coming off the bench in recent games, but he was a regular starter for Virginia for the majority of the season and still logged 30 minutes in each of the last two games despite being a “reserve.” At a cheap price on both sites (especially on DraftKings), Diakite has the potential to return 4x or 5x value.

Other Forwards to Consider:

Jordan Nwora - LOU ($8,000 DK ONLY)

Tacko Fall - UCF ($7,000 FD ONLY)

Keyontae Johnson - UF ($6,000 DK / $6,000 FD)

Kristian Sjolund - GT ($3,000 DK / $3,900 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Jordan Bone, TENN - $7,200

G: Jase Febres, TEX - $4,300

G: Mac McClung, GTWN - $6,000

F: Chuma Okeke, AUB - $7,700

F: Sam Hauser, MARQ - $7,600

F: Mamadi Diakite, UVA - $5,100

U: Marcquise Reed, CLEM - $9,000

U: Kristian Sjolund, GT - $3,000


Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Jordan Bone, TENN - $6,800

G: Sam Hauser, MARQ - $7,300

G: Jase Febres, TEX - $4,700

G: Devonte Bandoo, BAY - $5,300

F: Chuma Okeke, AUB - $7,700

F: Kristian Sjolund, GT - $3,900

F: Admiral Schofield, TENN - $7,800

U: Mac McClung, GTWN - $6,50