Welcome back to the mid-week DFS CBB slates! With plenty of high-priced studs to fit in, there are also plenty of value plays on tonight’s slate with some notable injuries to pay attention to. We’ll break down all of that and more in the Tuesday, Feb. 26 Playbook!
FanDuel has a 10-game slate, while DraftKings has a 12-gamer with the Miami-Wake Forest and Missouri-Mississippi State matchups as the outliers. All in all, tonight’s games get going at 7 pm ET with seven Top-25 teams in action - highlighted by the DFS-friendly Duke-Virginia Tech tilt.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!
Games To Target:
Duke @ Virginia Tech - 7 pm ET (DUKE -3 / 149 Implied Total)
Temple @ Memphis - 9 pm ET (MEM -4 / 158 Implied Total)
Texas A&M @ LSU - 9 pm ET (LSU -12 / 152 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Providence @ Butler - 7 pm ET (BUT -7 / 135 Implied Total)
Miami @ Wake Forest - 7 pm ET (MIA -5 / 141 Implied Total) - DK ONLY
Wisconsin @ Indiana - 9 pm ET (WISC -3 / 123 Implied Total)
Guards
RJ Barrett - DUKE ($10,900 DK / $9,400 FD) - Despite the appropriate price bump on both sites, Barrett needs to be considered tonight with Zion Williamson still out for Duke. In the last two games with Williamson out, Barrett put up 104 combined DK points and scored at least 30 real points in 20+ shot attempts in each outing. The matchup on the road vs. Virginia Tech’s stout defense is a tough one, but Barrett will have the ball in his hands a ton and will get the lion’s share of scoring opportunities - especially with Cam Reddish and Tre Jones struggling shooting the ball lately. When Williamson was healthy, Barrett was a nightly threat to put up 40-50 DK points - and his floor is even higher as the clear-cut No. 1 option on offense. The only downsides to playing Barrett tonight are his high expected ownership with Williamson out - and the large investment he requires while forcing you to find value elsewhere. Fortunately, there are enough cheap options today (as you’ll see below), but it could be wise to fade him in tournaments while paying up for some of the other high-priced guards and forwards on the slate. NOTE: Barrett is only guard-eligible on FanDuel and only forward-eligible on DraftKings.
Jeremiah Martin - MEM ($9,300 DK / $8,700 FD) - You may not be too familiar with Jeremiah Martin (or Memphis for that matter), but he’s quietly been one of the best DFS guards lately with some monster performances. Case in point: He put up a combined 130 DK points in his last two games. Of course we can expect some regression, but Martin has still averaged 45.8 DK points in his last ten games with a regular floor above 30. Tonight’s matchup vs. Temple should also be a high-scoring one as both teams play at fast tempos and KenPom predicts the total points in this game to be the slate’s most. If you’re not playing RJ Barrett tonight, Martin presents a very interesting pivot in cash games and tournaments at a more affordable price tag with a similar fantasy ceiling - and likely less ownership because people know all about Zion Williamson’s injury while Memphis has flown under-the-radar for much of this season.
Ja’vonte Smart - LSU ($5,300 DK / $5,700 FD) - The big question mark today surrounds LSU star point guard Tremont Waters after he missed Saturday’s game with an unexpected illness. Waters ($9,000 DK / $8,400 FD) will be a game-time decision tonight and if he’s back, you can confidently play him in all formats as he put up 55 DK points last time out vs. Texas A&M and averaged 37 DK points over his last ten games. If he’s out, though, the plug-and-play option for LSU is Ja’vonte Smart - who moved into the starting lineup over the weekend and put up a Waters-like performance of his own. Smart - in his first start since December - scored 29 real points on 22 shots and had 48 DK points to anchor the Tigers in the overtime win over Tennessee. The freshman had been playing nearly 30 minutes off the bench during conference play, but his value changes entirely when those minutes (and more) are spent as the starting point guard for LSU’s 11th-ranked offense, per KenPom. Now, don’t expect a repeat performance from Smart if he indeed starts - but he can easily return 5x or 6x value on both sites as a poor man’s Tremont Waters.
Alex O’Connell - DUKE ($3,600 DK / $4,300 FD) - With Zion Williamson slated to miss a second straight game, O’Connell becomes a nice source of value for us tonight. The freshman moved into the starting lineup on Saturday for the first time all year, played a season-high 34 minutes, put up 30+ DK points and scored 20 real points on 5-for-8 shooting from three-point range. For much of that game, Duke opted to go small and keep their three-point shooters on the floor to attack Syracuse’s zone. We should see something similar tonight vs. Virginia Tech, whose defense also utilizes the zone look and allows the highest-percentage of opposing points to the three-pointer of any team in the country. Against Syracuse, O’Connell was surprisingly Duke’s second-leading scorer behind RJ Barrett while stud freshmen Cam Reddish and Tre Jones struggled shooting the ball. There’s a chance that script could be flipped tonight - but at such a cheap price on both sites, O’Connell remains a nice value play if he’s getting playing time like he saw over the weekend. Definitely check out Duke’s starting lineup ahead of this 7 pm ET tip, but there’s a good chance O’Connell gets a second straight start with 30 minutes yet again.
Other Guards to Consider:
Shizz Alston Jr. - TEMP ($8,700 DK / $8,500 FD)
Alex Robinson - TCU ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD)
Cameron Johnson - UNC ($7,900 DK / $8,300 FD)
Keldon Johnson - UK ($6,400 DK / $6,900 FD
Tyson Carter - MSST ($4,700 DK ONLY)
Forward
PJ Washington - UK ($8,500 DK / $8,600 FD) - As expected, Washington put up a monster game on Saturday with Reid Travis out and continued his hot streak during conference play. With increased usage and scoring opportunities, he had 40 DK points and 24 real points as the main man down low for Kentucky. It may have been the first time he hit the 40-mark in nearly a month, but this should be the new norm for Washington while Travis nurses a knee injury for the next couple weeks. The 6’8” sophomore is averaging over 38 DK points in the last ten games and has been a lock for 30-35 before the Travis injury. His fantasy ceiling and floor should continue to see new levels as he’s been outperforming his salary for some time now. Plus, Washington gets a favorable matchup tonight vs. Arkansas - one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. Washington’s elite rebounding numbers combined with more opportunity on the glass without Travis should get him back to the double-digit boards - something he hasn’t done since early February.
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Kerry Blackshear - VT ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD) - Ever since Justin Robinson went down with a foot injury in late January, Blackshear has turned into a DFS stud for Virginia Tech over the last month with increased usage and shot volume. In the seven games without Robinson, Blackshear is averaging 40.5 DK points and he’s coming off three straight outings of at least 22 real points, 12 rebounds/assists and 43 DK points. Normally a matchup vs. Duke would be worrisome for Blackshear’s effectiveness, but the Zion Williamson injury changes that completely. Blackshear should benefit from the absence of Zion’s size and shot-blocking ability in the paint - plus Duke went with small lineups vs. Syracuse over the weekend and could choose to do so against Tech against tonight, which would give Blackshear more opportunity to rack up rebounds as well.
Nassir Little - UNC ($4,800 DK / $5,600 FD) - Despite playing limited minutes recently with an ankle injury, Little put up 32.5 DK points off the bench on Saturday vs. Florida State. In 23 minutes, the freshman scored 18 real points with eight rebounds and one each of rebounds, assists and steals. Tonight’s matchup vs. Syracuse could also mean more playing time for Little as the zone defense could force North Carolina to mix-and-match their lineups. Last year against Syracuse, coach Roy Williams opted to use Theo Pinson in the high-post role to exploit the holes in the 2-3 zone - and Pinson had some monster games. Little could very easily move into that role because of his athleticism and lack of three-point shooting - which UNC will need Luke Maye, Cameron Johnson and Coby White on the perimeter as the best team’s best three-point shooters. One other thing going in Little’s favor tonight is his rebounding ability (especially on the offensive end) vs. Syracuse and their poor defensive rebounding.
EJ Montgomery - UK ($4,200 DK / $4,600 FD) & Nick Richards - UK ($3,800 DK / $3,900 FD) - Saturday was Kentucky’s first game since Reid Travis’ knee injury and we got some answers as to what the rotation might look like for the time being. Montgomery moved into the starting lineup and put up 24+ DK points in his most minutes since November. Richards, on the other hand, came off the bench but still had 17+ DK points in 20 minutes - his most since November as well. Both were very nice value plays on that Saturday slate and both should continue to return value until their salaries increase more. Kentucky had gotten used to using two bigs in most of their lineups - with PJ Washington and Travis hogging those minutes - and we saw over the weekend that coach John Calipari didn’t change his offense because of the Travis injury. Instead, the playing time was split between Montgomery and Richards with the former getting the start. If Montgomery gets the start again, he’ll be the safer play tonight with likely more guaranteed playing time - but Richards is still an option at a cheaper price with the possibility of a blowout (like last game) which would mean more run for the freshman to get him more experience.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Reggie Perry - MSST ($6,500 DK ONLY)
Marek Dolezaj - SYR ($4,600 DK / $5,900 FD)
De’Ron Davis - IND ($4,700 DK / $4,700 FD)
Justyn Hamilton - TEMP ($3,400 DK / $4,100 FD)
Justin Ahrens - OSU ($3,000 DK / $3,900 FD) - If CJ Jackson out
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Jeremiah Martin, MEM - $9,300
G: Alex O’Connell, DUKE - $3,600
G: Alex Robinson, TCU - $8,200
F: PJ Washington, UK - $8,500
F: Kerry Blackshear, VT - $8,100
F: Justyn Hamilton, TEMP - $3,400
U: Tyson Carter, MSST - $4,700
U: EJ Montgomery, UK - $4,200
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Jeremiah Martin, MEM - $8,700
G: Alex O’Connell, DUKE - $4,300
G: Cameron Johnson, UNC - $8,300
G: Ja’vonte Smart, LSU - $5,700
F: Nick Richards, UK - $3,900
F: Kerry Blackshear, VT - $8,400
F: De’Ron Davis, IND - $4,700
U: Marek Dolezaj, SYR - $5,900