Welcome back FA Nation to another CBB DFS Playbook! Tonight marks the last slate before NBA games resume tomorrow and, boy, do we have a good one.

The North Carolina-Duke rivalry highlights the main slate on both sites. Of course, the big names are in play as always (Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett), but the challenge tonight will be finding the value plays across the board to create a reasonable lineup worth cashing.

Tipping off at 7 pm ET, DraftKings has a 12-game main slate while FanDuel includes eight of those matchups for its main slate. Both sites also provide a few other mini slates stretching later into the night but for the purposes of this playbook, we’ll focus only on the main slates for DK and FD.

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotation changes and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

If you have any questions or comments about CBB DFS strategy or college basketball in general, feel free to hit up my Twitter @dan_servodidio. Good luck!

 

Games to Target:

  • North Carolina @ Duke - 9 pm ET (DUKE -11 / 169 Implied Total)
  • Creighton @ DePaul - 9 pm ET (CRE -1 / 155 Implied Total)
  • Stanford @ Arizona State - 9 pm ET (ASU -7 / 149 Implied Total) - DK ONLY

 

Games to Fade:

  • Louisville @ Syracuse - 7 pm ET (LOU -1 / 133 Implied Total)
  • Northwestern @ Ohio State - 8:30 pm ET (OSU -8 / 124 Implied Total)
  • Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech - 9 pm ET (GT -1 / 125 Implied Total) - DK ONLY

 

Guards

Markus Howard - MARQ ($9,700 DK / $8,900 FD) - Before we get into the top Duke and North Carolina options tonight, we’d be remiss if we didn’t spend time on the man who might be viewed as the best player in college basketball if Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett didn’t exist. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for the aforementioned players, Howard presents an interesting and safe pivot option with a similar cash floor. The junior is averaging 41+ DK points over the past ten games and he’s scored 30+ real points in four of the last five including a 32-point performance vs. Butler in the first meeting a couple weeks ago. Howard’s possession usage and shots share are both tops in the Big East, plus he dishes out assists and draws fouls at an elite rate as well. Howard’s fantasy floor is so high because of how much he’s handling the ball with a green light to launch as many shots he wants - he’s averaging 21 shots and 8.4 three-point attempts per game in the last five outings. On DraftKings, it’s possible to fit in Howard and one of Williamson/Barrett with the larger amount of value plays available. On FanDuel, though, you’ll likely have to choose between them with the tighter pricing - and Howard is a viable contrarian option with high ownership expected for the Duke duo.

Cameron Johnson - UNC ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) - As mentioned above, we definitely want exposure to both sides of this UNC-Duke matchup and Johnson sets up as the optimal North Carolina option. Luke Maye could end up in foul trouble trying to battle Zion Williamson in the paint, while Coby White will have to deal with Tre Jones’ stifling defense on the other end - this leaves Johnson as the safest Tar Heel to roster as he’s also seen an increased offensive role since conference play began. According to KenPom’s metrics, Johnson owns the best offensive rating among all ACC players as he’s shooting 52% from the field and 46% from three-point range over the last ten games. The senior is coming off a massive 44.25 DK points on Saturday when he hit 7-of-10 three-pointers - plus he went through a recent stretch in the last month of at least 34 DK points in four of five outings. Johnson also puts up about five more DK points in road games than at home as the Tar Heels lean on his offensive ability and size in their away battles. Expect that to be the case tonight vs. Duke - especially if Maye and White struggle to produce in tough individual matchups.

Davion Mintz - CRE ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD) - Starting point guard Marcus Zegarowski is back for Creighton, but that’s actually good news for Mintz’s DFS value. When Zegarowski was out for three games in February, Mintz took over more ball-handling responsibilities and his scoring opportunities came more by his own creation instead of the catch-and-shoot role he’s excelled in this season. That different role for the junior on an injury-riddled Creighton team resulted in poor shooting performances and was thus a terrible DFS play. On Sunday, though, Mintz put up 35 DK points with 16 points, five assists, six rebounds and two steals in Creighton’s shooting guard role with Zegarowski back starting at the point. This was no outlier performance for Mintz, either. Over a three-game stretch last month, he averaged 30.6 DK points and went 18-for-35 from the field (51%) in a similar role when Zegarowski was healthy. Expect Mintz to get back to his hot shooting as he’ll see easier scoring opportunities even as the third or fourth offensive option for Creighton.

Drew Edwards - PROV ($3,200 DK / $3,900 FD) - To fit in the high-priced Duke and North Carolina players, we’ll need to find salary savings somewhere on this slate - Edwards could be just that on both sites. The junior has carved out a role in Providence’s rotation to the point where he’s regularly playing 15-20 minutes and producing just enough in all stat categories to be a value play at a pretty cheap price point. Edwards has posted double-digit DK points in each of the last seven games - including 14.5 DK points vs. St. John’s just two weeks ago in this season’s first meeting. You really can’t expect much more than that from him tonight, but you don’t need much more at this cheap salary when you consider you’ll be paying up for Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and/or Markus Howard.  

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Quincy McKnight - SHU ($6,100 DK ONLY)
  • Jalen Harris - ARK ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)
  • Cormac Ryan - STAN ($4,600 DK ONLY)
  • Sidy N’Dir - PITT ($4,400 DK ONLY)
  • Jared Hamilton - BC ($3,600 DK ONLY)

 

Forwards

Zion Williamson - DUKE ($11,200 DK / $9,900 FD) - And here we are with the most expensive player - and possibly the most popular play - on tonight’s slate. The salary may seem scary to fit in (especially on DK), but it’s been so tough to fade Williamson this season as he always boasts the highest floor and ceiling of any player on any slate. That’s particularly the case tonight in the game with the highest-projected total points. If you do need some evidence as to why Williamson is a top play today, let’s break it down. The Duke freshman is averaging nearly 50 DK points over the last ten games and has the real upside to either score 30+ real points, grab 15+ rebounds, block 3+ shots or rack up 3+ steals in any one game. Although he’s pretty much matchup-proof, Williamson gets a favorable one tonight as UNC’s defense is notoriously soft in the paint and usually gives up big games to opposing big men. If you’re looking for any excuse NOT to play Zion, well there are a couple contrarian reasons. For one, he will be fairly popular in nearly all formats tonight because of his name recognition, the high point total in this game and the fact that there’s no DFS NBA slate tonight so more of those players may see Williamson’s name and simply plug him in. Plus, there’s a chance he doesn’t live up to his expensive price tag if nerves, foul trouble and/or double teams give him issues in his first rivalry game vs. North Carolina. Still, he’s the clear-cut best play on tonight’s slate on both sites as no one else can match his extremely high fantasy ceiling.

Dwayne Sutton - LOU ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD) - If you’re new to this playbook, we usually like to target certain types of players vs. Syracuse and its famed zone defense. Three-point shooters and high post forwards get the most usage and shot volume for opposing teams - and Sutton falls into the latter category. The junior is still a decent perimeter threat, but expect Sutton to get a ton of touches in the hole of the middle of the ‘Cuse zone with the opportunity to turn and put up shots, drive to the rim or dish to outside shooters. Another trend leaning in Sutton’s favor tonight is his home/road splits - he averages nearly eight more DK points per game in away matchups (29.6 to 22). Sutton may have low ownership tonight after he put up just six DK points last time out, but that was an outlier game for him as he’s been providing 25-35 DFS points throughout conference play.

Keyontae Johnson - UF ($5,500 DK / $6,600 FD) - If you look up the definition of “consistency” in a thesaurus, Keyontae Johnson’s name likely appears as the first synonym. Well, it should in the DFS thesaurus at least. Ever since Johnson entered Florida’s starting rotation a month ago, the freshman has put up at least 20 DK points in every game with an average of 25.5 DK points in the last ten games. Although he gets a slight salary increase tonight after his best game of the season on Saturday - 14 points, 13 rebounds and 35.75 DK points - Johnson is one of the safest plays on the slate as Florida’s best rebounder and a defensive anchor.

Kristian Sjolund - GT ($3,000 DK ONLY) - On DraftKings, if you’re looking for a cheap value play to fit in two expensive studs, Sjolund may be your best option at his minimum price tag. The freshman had been playing sparingly this season off the bench, but he’s gotten 26+ minutes in each of the last two games and even entered the starting rotation for the first time on Saturday. Sjolund responded to the extended playing time with back-to-back performances of 20+ DK points where he put up a two-game combo line of 22 real points and 11 rebounds and went 6-for-14 from three-point range. Sjolund should continue to see the floor like he has this past week because he gives Georgia Tech a different dimension to its offense as a three-point shooter who can stretch the floor more so than when usual starters James Banks and Abdoulaye Gueye play together.

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Martin Krampelj - CRE ($8,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
  • Femi Olujobi - DPU ($5,600 DK / $6,400 FD)
  • Theo John - MARQ ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD)
  • Marques Bolden - DUKE ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Cameron Johnson, UNC ($7,800)

G: Davion Mintz, CRE - $5,600

G: Cormac Ryan, STAN - $4,600

F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $11,200

F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $5,500

F: Dwayne Sutton, LOU - $6,200

U: Kristian Sjolund, GT - $3,000

U: Quincy McKnight, SHU - $6,100

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Markus Howard, MARQ - $8,900

G: Davion Mintz, CRE - $6,300

G: Drew Edwards, PROV - $3,900

G: Jalen Harris, ARK - $6,200

F: Marques Bolden, DUKE - $5,800

F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $6,600

F: Femi Olujobi, DPU - $6,400

U: Theo John, MARQ - $5,800