Welcome back to Fantasy Alarm’s DFS College Basketball Playbook! Tonight’s CBB slate is smaller than usual (as Monday’s usually go), but we have some tournament-bound teams with tons of injury questions across the board.
DraftKings and FanDuel both have a four-game slate with the earliest matchup tipping at 7 pm ET. There’s the one stud who stands out (cough, Ethan Happ), but it’s the few value plays that could make lineup-building particularly interesting tonight as a few cheap options should become clearer as game times near.
Keep in mind with such a smaller player pool than usual on a shorter slate of games, nearly every team and game are in play. Don’t be afraid to stack teams more often than you normally would if the opportunity presents itself - especially among the favored teams.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. Let’s get into it!
Games On Tonight’s Slate:
Virginia @ Virginia Tech - 7 pm ET (UVA -2 / 122 Implied Total)
Illinois @ Wisconsin - 8 pm ET (WISC -13 / 135 Implied Total)
TCU @ Oklahoma State - 9 pm ET (TCU -2 / 142 Implied Total)
Kansas State @ West Virginia - 9 pm ET (KSU -5 / 131 Implied Total)
Guards
Kyle Guy - UVA ($6,400 DK / $6,900 FD) - It’s usually tough to pinpoint which Virginia player could return value on a nightly basis, but Guy’s matchup tonight sets him apart from his more-expensive teammates. As a baseline, Guy’s shot volume and scoring production has been pretty consistent lately as he’s averaging 12 shot attempts per game over the last ten and has scored in double figures in every game since late November. Tonight, though, let’s focus on Guy’s three-point shooting ability and a favorable matchup vs. a Virginia Tech team who is prone to giving up the deep ball. According to KenPom’s advanced metrics, Tech is actually the worst in the country (out of 353 rated teams) in allowing points via the three-pointer compared to how opposing teams score the rest of their points - that’s 43.8% of opposing teams’ total points via the three-pointer vs. just 40.6% from two-point range (with the rest coming from the foul line). Virginia Tech’s zone defense usually bottles up scoring in the paint and allows opposing three-point shooters to get open on the outside - a perfect recipe for Guy, who launches about seven three-pointers per game and is Virginia’s best perimeter threat. Although the junior only went 3-for-5 from beyond the arc in this season’s first meeting vs. Tech, expect Guy to get more opportunities tonight as he’s ramped up his three-point shot volume since that game a month ago.
Isaac Likekele - OKST ($5,700 DK / $6,800 FD) - Oklahoma State is by no means a good team, having won just two of its conference games, but Likekele has been one of the more productive Cowboys in recent action. The freshman point guard has put up 30+ DK points in three of the last four outings with per-game averages of 14 points, five assists, 4.5 rebounds and two steals over that span. He’s also playing monster minutes for an OK State team that’s riddled with injuries and usually only uses a six-man rotation for the majority of games. Tonight, he gets rematch with TCU who he put up 37.75 DK points against earlier this month with a balanced line of 17 real points, seven assists, three boards and four steals. The mid-range options at guard are tough to project today but Likekele presents guaranteed playing time running the point in the slate’s highest-projected total points.
Kendric Davis - TCU ($4,700 DK / $5,300 FD) - Who would’ve thought a freshman getting 12 minutes per game back in November would be the chalk play of a Monday slate in February? Yet, that’s where we are with Kendric Davis tonight. He’s coming off three straight games of at least 34 DK points while looking like TCU’s best player on both ends of the floor. Even with a salary increase, he’s still way to cheap on both sites if he can duplicate his production from the last three outings. During that stretch, he’s averaging 17.3 points, 8.3 rebounds/assists and 3.3 steals per game as the Horned Frogs’ spark plug on offense and defense while the bigger name players have struggled a bit. Davis’ playing time was already trending up lately, but an injury to Kouat Noi this weekend allowed Davis to enter the starting lineup for the first time this season. Noi sprained his ankle in practice last week, was wearing a boot on Saturday and is a real question mark to play tonight - clearing the way yet again for Davis to start for a second straight time and with the real possibility he posts 30+ fantasy points for a fourth consecutive game.
Mike McGuirl - KSU ($3,300 DK / $4,000 FD) - Injuries to two of Kansas State’s best players have created an interesting value play in Mike McGuirl. Wildcats star Dean Wade is questionable to go tonight after getting hurt on Saturday and guard Cartier Diarra is out indefinitely following hand surgery last week. It’ll be interesting to see how the K-State rotation and starting lineup shakes out if Wade misses, but we can expect McGuirl to continue to play a role in Diarra’s extended absence either way. Over the weekend, the sophomore McGuirl saw extended playing time in Diarra’s place with a season-high 32 minutes and 16.75 DK points with production across all stat categories. For this cheap of a salary on both sites, you can’t ask for much more than what he did last game - but McGuirl has the upside for 5x or better if he gets another 30 minutes, especially if Wade sits out.
Other Guards to Consider:
Barry Brown Jr. - KSU ($7,700 DK / $7,900 FD)
Ty Outlaw - VT ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD)
RJ Nembhard - TCU ($3,300 DK / $3,900 FD)
Forwards
Ethan Happ - WISC ($10,900 DK / $9,300 FD) - On short slates like tonight, sometimes it’s just best to plug in the clear-cut best player and move on - no matter how expensive he may be. Ethan Happ is that top-tier option tonight, but his salary actually doesn’t seem that high considering there’s no other player in his price range across these four games. Outside of that strategy, though, Happ deserves consideration on any slate because of his do-it-all role for Wisconsin and production in all stat categories with the upside for a monster performance. In the last ten games, Happ has posted a double-double seven times and is averaging 17 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.4 blocks/steals and 42.6 DK points - outstanding numbers for any player, let alone a 6’10” center who sees consistent double-teams, draws matchups with some dominant Big Ten bigs and is tasked with nearly single-handedly carrying a Wisconsin team that’s seriously lacking in talent. His do-everything ability has also produced performances of 50 DK points in four different outings in the last ten games. Like we said, lock him in and move on.
Derek Culver - WVU ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) - West Virginia’s rotations and starting lineups have been a mess to predict this season, but we may be safe in assuming Culver’s playing time will continue as long as James Bolden remains out. Bolden (ankle) has now missed the last five games and currently does not have a timetable to return. Conveniently, Culver has started the last four games - the first starts of his freshman season - and is dominating the usage in the most recent of West Virginia’s reshuffled lineups. When the 6’10” center is out there, the bulk of the Mountaineers’ offense usually centers around feeding Culver the ball in the post and letting him either score it, get his own rebound and then score, or get fouled in the process and force teams to put multiple bodies on him as defenders enter foul trouble. In the last four games, Culver has grabbed at least 11 rebounds each outing and is averaging 20 shots/free throw attempts - including decent production in assists, blocks and steals - to give him a 36 DK point average in those four starts. Expect more of the same tonight - especially if Dean Wade is out for Kansas State.
JD Miller - TCU ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) - With the real possibility Kouat Noi sits out tonight, JD Miller is set up for a bigger role in TCU’s offense for a second straight game. Noi missed Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, was wearing a walking boot over the weekend and is expected to be a game-time decision for tonight’s action. In his absence on Saturday, Miller went 6-for-15 from the field and put up 14 points and 11 rebounds in 38 minutes - his most playing time in nearly a month. The DFS production was certainly there - 30 DK points with nearly 5x value - but it was his deep-ball shot volume that was particularly encouraging. The senior launched eight shots from three-point range - his most all season - and seemed to fill the perimeter-threat void left by Noi, who had become one of TCU’s better three-point shooters. If Noi misses tonight (or is limited at all), expect Miller to get another game with increased playing time, shot volume and usage as the Horned Frogs’ starting power forward.
Makol Mawien - KSU ($4,400 DK / $4,800 FD) - One of the key injuries to monitor tonight will be the status of Dean Wade. The K-State stud is likely to sit out tonight after leaving Saturday’s game early with a foot injury that he’s been battling for at least the last week. Expect Wade to get rest vs. lowly West Virginia tonight - meaning Mawien will undoubtedly play a larger role on both ends for injury-riddled Kansas State. Although a regular starter for the Wildcats, Mawien has a tendency to disappear at times when Wade is dominating the usage down low. With Wade out of the picture, Mawien should see upwards of 30 minutes with a larger shot volume than usual. This was exactly the case when Wade missed six games back in December and January - Mawien got the bulk of K-State’s center minutes, put up three outings of double-digit points and saw noticeably more shot opportunities. Expect that type of production from Mawien tonight - which would be a bargain at his salary on both sites.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Kerry Blackshear - VT ($7,400 DK / $8,200 FD)
Nate Reuvers - WISC ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Kendric Davis, TCU - $4,700
G: Kyle Guy, UVA - $6,400
G: Isaac Likekele, OKST - $5,700
F: Ethan Happ, WISC - $10,900
F: Makol Mawien, KSU - $4,400
F: Derek Culver, WVU - $6,800
U: RJ Nembhard, TCU - $3,300
U: Barry Brown, KSU - $7,700
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Kendric Davis, TCU - $5,300
G: Kyle Guy, UVA - $6,900
G: Mike McGuirl, KSU - $4,000
G: Isaac Likekele, OKST - $6,800
F: Ethan Happ, WISC - $9,300
F: Makol Mawien, KSU - $4,800
F: JD Miller, TCU - $6,500
U: Nate Reuvers, WISC - $6,200