Welcome back to mid-week DFS College Basketball! With the NCAA Tournament right around the corner, the time is NOW to build your understanding of the teams we'll need to know all about come March.

As usual, we have a deep slate tonight on both sites with the first games tipping at 7 pm ET. DraftKings has a 12-game slate while FanDuel’s contests include 10 of those games - the Pittsburgh-Wake Forest and Vanderbilt-Arkansas matchups are the outliers on DK.

One thing to keep in mind for these massive weekday slates with bigger player pools than usual - the margin for error is a bit different than on the three or four-game tilts. There’s a larger top-tier of players than usual today - creating a tougher chance to cash. If you miss out on a stud who goes off, you can easily make back those points if you hit on a different top-tier player. BUT if your expensive players go bust, you could find yourself in a bigger hole than usual because the majority of entries likely had one of their own smash value.

This deeper player pool also stresses the importance of value plays. Due to the larger number of expensive options we want some exposure to, we need to find those cheap players who can return 4x or 5x value. Now, you can afford to have these plays to bust once in a while - but only if your studs have good games and you’re not trying to win the bigger GPP contests.

 

With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.

 

Games To Target:

 

  • Boston College @ Duke - 7 pm ET (DUKE -25 / 157 Implied Total)

  • St. John’s @ Marquette - 8 pm ET (MARQ -7 / 155 Implied Total)

  • North Carolina State @ North Carolina - 8 pm ET (UNC -12 / 162 Implied Total)

 

Game To Fade:

 

  • Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest - 7 pm ET (PITT -5 / 137 Implied Total) - DK Only

  • Michigan @ Rutgers - 8 pm ET (MICH -10 / 122 Implied Total)

  • Florida State @ Syracuse - 8 pm ET (SYR -2 / 136 Implied Total)


Guards

Shamorie Ponds - STJN ($9,900 DK / $8,500 FD) - On any slate with Duke on it, it’s tough to pay up for a high-priced guard over Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett. But if you were to do it tonight, Ponds is your guy. For starters, he may see lower ownership than usual not only because of Duke’s presence on the slate, but also since he’s coming off one of his worst statistical games of the year. Duke’s Tre Jones forced Ponds into turnovers and bad shots on Saturday as he failed to even 3x his DK salary. Still, Ponds has a legit upside of 60 fantasy points and will face fast-paced Marquette tonight - he put up 45.75 DK points against the Golden Eagles earlier this season. In that game, Ponds had 26 points, seven rebounds, five assists and two steals as he anchored St. John’s victory. Rarely do we see Ponds with a salary this low, and it’s actually his cheapest price on DraftKings in over a month.

Cassius Winston - MSU ($8,700 DK / $8,700 FD) - If you’re not paying up for Ponds, Winston is next safest option among the high-priced guards tonight. The senior point guard has been on an offensive tear lately, scoring 23 points in three straight games with at least seven assists in four straight. Michigan State is coming off back-to-back losses - the team’s first of Big Ten play - and should keep the ball in Winston’s hands a ton tonight to get back into the win column on the road in Illinois. In those last two losses, Winston still has been contributing in all stat categories with high usage and put up 48.25 and 52.5 DK points, respectively. Illinois has generally played opponents tougher at home this season, and should keep this one closer than the spread indicates. Look for the offense to run through Winston for all 35-40 minutes he’s out there - whether it’s by scoring or assisting.  

Lamonte Turner - TENN ($5,900 DK / $5,500 FD) - Turner replaced Yves Pons in Tennessee’s starting rotation three games ago and has not looked back. In those three starts, the junior has averaged 34.25 DK points, 18.3 real points, five assists and 2.3 steals per outing with at least 32 minutes played in each. The shots share, usage and playing time are all there - even with teammate Jordan Bowden back from injury. His play lately - and Tennessee’s winning ways - should continue tonight vs. a poor Missouri defense. Turner presents the best value to get exposure to the Volunteers tonight, who’s projected to score 80 points and have put up 92 and 93 in the last two games, respectively. Turner’s price on FanDuel is a bit more affordable, but he’s still a strong cash and GPP play when he’s 6x-ed his DK salary twice in the last three games.

Ochai Agbaji - KU ($5,100 DK / $4,000 FD) - With Marcus Garrett (ankle) doubtful to play tonight, Agbaji should see his third straight start in a must-win game for the Jayhawks. The freshman burned his redshirt early in January and was exclusively coming off the bench before entering the starting rotation two games ago. In those two starts, Agbaji saw 33+ minutes and smashed value in both. On the road vs. Texas, he shot 8-for-10 from the field for 24 points, grabbed seven rebounds and put up 38.75 DK points. Then, at home against a tough Texas Tech defense, Agbaji had 10 points, 10 boards and three assists for 30 DK points. His salary is still very much affordable on both sites - especially on FanDuel - and it’s reasonable to expect similar production again tonight if he gets the start. Even if he gives us 20-25 fantasy points, he’s a lock-and-load play at these cheap prices.

Jared Hamilton - BC ($3,500 DK / $3,300 FD) - One of the key injuries to monitor tonight will be Boston College’s Wynston Tabbs. The freshman has missed the last three games with a knee injury and was spotted in crutches on the sidelines before Saturday’s tilt vs. Notre Dame. If he’s out again tonight, look for Jared Hamilton to make a second straight start in his stead. In extended playing time the last two outings, Hamilton has shot 13-for-18 from the field (72%) with 29+ minutes in both and DK performances of 18.75 and 29.25 points, respectively. The junior’s minutes have been very inconsistent since joining the team late after sitting out the first semester due to transfer rules. But if Hamilton gets the starting nod again tonight - even against a tough Duke defense - he needs to considered in all formats with salaries close to min-price on both sites.

Other Guards to Consider:

  • LJ Figueroa - STJN ($7,700 DK / $7,700 FD)

  • Tre Jones - DUKE ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

  • Saben Lee - VAND ($6,400 DK Only)

  • Torrence Watson - MIZZ ($3,300 DK / $3,500 FD)


Forwards

Zion Williamson - DUKE ($11,100 DK / $9,200 FD) - This may sound like a broken record but any time Duke is on the slate, you need to consider Zion Williamson because of the massive upside he brings to the table.Tonight, though, he gets a fairly easy matchup with a Boston College team that’s undersized and can easily get dominated by a freak athlete like Zion. Williamson has scored at least 20 real points in six straight games and is averaging close to 50 DK points per outing over that six-game span. In tournaments it’s so tough to fade him because of the legit 60-point fantasy ceiling he can hit - a mark that’s higher than everyone else on tonight’s slate. Note that Zion’s salary is a lot more favorable on FanDuel, making it easier to build an optimal lineup around him on that site. Although the Blue Devils should blow out Boston College tonight, don’t be afraid of Williamson getting rest in the second half as he played 33 minutes in each of the last two games - both of which were 20+ point wins over St. John’s and Notre Dame.

Dean Wade - KSU ($7,200 DK / $6,900 FD) - Ever since Udoka Azubuike went down for the year, opposing post players have been able to put up big games against Kansas. Dedric Lawson is a beast offensively for the Jayhawks, but he tends to take defensive possessions off to avoid foul trouble and Kansas just does not have the bench depth to compliment him. Enter Dean Wade, who has been very consistent since returning from a foot injury last month. The senior center exploded for 42.5 DK points last time out to the tune of 24 points, six boards, three assists, two blocks and a steal. He seems to be back playing at the elite level he was at before his injury - when his salary was regularly more than $1,000 than it is tonight. Wade makes for a pretty safe cash game play with the upside to 6x his salary on both sites.

Kenny Goins - MSU ($6,900 DK / $7,200 FD) - Goins may see higher-than-normal ownership tonight because of his massive game last time out, but he’s still a great play in a favorable matchup. In Saturday’s win over Indiana, the senior put up 12 points, eight rebounds, six assists, eight blocks and a steal for a slate-breaking 50 DK points. While he doesn’t score a ton - double-digit points in just three of the last ten games - Goins contributes in every statistical category, keeping his fantasy floor a bit higher than other forwards in this price range. With Nick Ward battling an illness for the Spartans, Goins has been called upon on both ends of the floor to get more involved as a rim-protector and scorer in the paint.

Keyontae Johnson - UF ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD) - Since entering Florida’s starting rotation five games ago, Johnson has been remarkably consistent from a DFS perspective. The freshman is averaging 24.8 DK points over that span and has 5x-ed his current DK salary four separate times in the last six games. He has a team-leading 30.8 rebounding percentage and gets a matchup tonight with an Auburn team that’s really struggled on the boards with Austin Wiley out the last five games. Wiley (lower leg) is questionable to play but even if he does suit up, he’d likely be limited - allowing Johnson to have his way in the paint scoring and rebounding.

 

Other Forwards to Consider:

 

  • Grant Williams - TENN ($9,800 DK / $9,000 FD)

  • Cameron Johnson - UNC ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD)

  • Joey Hauser - MARQ ($6,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

  • Keyshawn Bryant - SCAR ($4,900 DK / $5,300 FD)


Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Shamorie Ponds, STJN - $9,900

G: Lamonte Turner, TENN - $5,900

G: Ochai Agbaji, KU - $5,100

F: Kenny Goins, MSU - $6,900

F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $5,000

F: Dean Wade, KSU - $7,200

U: Tre Jones, DUKE - $6,400

U: Jared Hamilton, BC - $3,500

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Shamorie Ponds, STJN - $8,500

G: Jared Hamilton, BC - $3,300

G: Ochai Agbaji, KU - $4,000

G: Tre Jones, DUKE - $6,700

F: Kenny Goins, MSU - $7,200

F: Zion Williamson, DUKE - $9,200

F: Keyontae Johnson, UF - $5,700

U: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $5,300