Ah, the old mid-season SEC/Big 12 Challenge to break up the heart of conference play. Of course we have a few ACC and Big Ten matchups on this Saturday 12 pm ET main slate, but it’s the cross-conference games that make today’s DFS College Basketball strategy all that more interesting.
Most of the major conferences got their non-con “Challenges” out of the way months ago, but the Big 12 and SEC wait till now for some entertaining matchups we don’t normally get to see. On this 12 pm ET slate, we get Iowa State-Mississippi, Alabama-Baylor and Texas-Georgia to name a few.
As usual with these Saturday slates, we have a ton of games to build lineups from and a large player pool to break down. FanDuel has a 13-game slate while DraftKings has a 14-gamer - the Marquette-Xavier contest is the lone outlier.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
Illinois @ Maryland - 12 pm ET (UMD -10 / 146 Implied Total)
Iowa State @ Mississippi - 12 pm ET (ISU -1 / 145 Implied Total)
Clemson @ North Carolina State - 2:00 pm ET (NCST -7 / 149 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Florida @ TCU - 12 pm ET (TCU -4 / 130 Implied Total)
Virginia @ Notre Dame - 1 pm ET (UVA -12 / 122 Implied Total)
Kansas State @ Texas A&M - 2 pm ET (KSU -5 / 125 Implied Total)
Guards
Anthony Cowan - UMD ($8,100 DK / $7,600 FD) - The casual DFS CBB player may be scared off by Cowan’s ugly performance vs. Michigan State earlier this week, but today presents a nice bounce-back spot for the junior point guard. In Cowan’s previous four conference games, he averaged nearly 40 DK points with at least 20 real points and nine rebounds+assists in each game. Outside of Bruno Fernando, Cowan is Maryland’s best offensive player as he routinely gets double-digit shot attempts and isn’t afraid to drive to the rim for potential double-digit free throws. With this game being played on the national stage at Madison Square Garden, expect Cowan to put on a show and get back to the level he was at during that four-game span - especially against a porous Illinois defense.
C.J. Bryce - NCST ($6,500 DK / $6,700 FD) - With Markell Johnson missing the last three games, it’s been Bryce who’s seen the biggest bump in offensive production for the Wolfpack lately. Over that three-game span, Bryce is taking 14 shots per game (including at least five three-point attempts) and is averaging 18.3 real points, 33.8 DK points and 34+ minutes per outing. These numbers are all noticeably up from his season averages of 12 points, 25 DK points and 26 minutes per game. Markell Johnson has yet to participate in contact drills in practice and is still questionable to miss Saturday’s game - if he sits again, Bryce looks like a nice value play for his price point as one of the top scorers for the 17th-fastest offense in the country.
Tre Jones - DUKE ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) - After missing the last 2+ games with a shoulder sprain, Jones is probable to return for Duke today according to Coach K. Assuming the freshman point guard plays his normal 35 or so minutes as the Blue Devils’ lead ball-handler, he could be a nice source of value on DraftKings as it’s his lowest DK price in over a month. Of course there is some risk Jones will be on a minutes restriction, but he was apparently close to playing in Duke’s last game on Tuesday after initially being ruled out indefinitely. Before his injury, Jones had cemented himself as Duke’s third offensive option behind Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Expect him to return to the facilitator role today as the team’s leader in assist rate with the second-highest assist-to-turnover ratio in the nation - stats that sometimes go overlooked on a team with Williamson and Barrett stealing the show.
Lindell Wigginton - ISU ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) - Wigginton’s price took a slight decrease after a dud DFS performance last time out on the road vs. Kansas, but it’s created a nice discount opportunity today. Before that loss to KU, the sophomore averaged nearly 24 DK points per game in his six conference games as the sixth-man for Iowa State. Despite coming off the bench, his usage and shots share are still third on the team as a super-reserve player. Wigginton doesn’t shoot a ton, but the ball is still in his hands a lot on both ends of the floor as he usually fills up the stat sheet with a nice complement of rebounds, assists and steals to go along with 10 or so points. Even on the road, today’s non-conference matchup with Ole Miss could be a nice bounce-back spot for Wigginton and the Iowa State offense.
Christen Cunningham - LOU ($5,700 DK / $6,300 FD) - Whenever Louisville is on the slate, Cunningham presents a very safe cash game play at an affordable price. He’s hit 28 DK points in six of the last eight games and fills the stat sheet enough to a point where his DFS production is not restricted to scoring opportunities. In fact, Cunningham has maxed out at just seven shot attempts over the past four games but still returned value because he gets to the foul line, dishes out assists, grabs a few rebounds and records a steal occasionally. You can roster Cunningham with the reasonable expectation he’ll 4x his salary.
Jared Butler - BAY ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD) - With Baylor forward Tristan Clark lost for the season, Butler has moved into the starting rotation the last four games and is averaging 26.5 DK points during that span. He put up a stinker last time out vs. West Virginia because of foul trouble but he should see 30 minutes in a favorable pace-up matchup today vs. non-con foe Alabama. The Crimson Tide defense tends to funnel opposing offensive production to the guard position with dominant big Donta Hall manning the paint. This leads to Butler and the rest of Baylor’s guards to generate offense today. Makai Mason ($6,200 DK / $6,300 FD) and Mark Vital ($5,600 DK / $5,900 FD) are both in play as well, but Butler provides better salary relief for today’s slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
James Palmer Jr. - NEB ($8,800 DK / $8,100 FD)
Ayo Dosunmu - ILL ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD)
Nick Weiler-Babb - ISU ($6,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
Khwan Fore - LOU ($3,300 DK / $4,500 FD)
Forwards
Bruno Fernando - UMD ($8,900 DK / $8,500 FD) - Illinois is by no means a good team - only one conference win so far this season - but they have been playing teams tough in the majority of their seven Big Ten losses. Still, Maryland will be looking to bounce back after a Monday loss to Michigan State and Fernando should lead the way on both ends of the floor. Illinois’ best forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili is a decent defender but he could get in foul trouble, opening up the door for Fernando to dominate the paint offensively and defensively. Outside of Bezhanishvili, Illinois just doesn’t have the size or rebounding ability to contend with Fernando. The 6’10” sophomore has five double-doubles in the last seven conference games and owns a 43.9% combined rate, which is top three in the conference. Fernando presents an optimal way to pivot off the high ownership Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett will undoubtedly see today.
Donta Hall - BAMA ($7,200 DK / $7,900 FD) - Ever since Tristan Clark went down for the year, Baylor has struggled to replace his size and rebounding skills in the paint. The Bears have gotten by without Clark in Big 12 play so far but they have yet to face a dominant big like Hall, who’s been dominating SEC teams down low this season. Hall has seven double-doubles in the last eight games and is first in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate and sixth in offensive rebounding. The other stat trending in Hall’s favor today is his block ability - he has 10 swats in the last four games and will face a Baylor team that gets blocked at one of the nation’s worst rates. Pencil in Hall for another double-double with 2-3 blocks today with the real potential to 5x his price on both sites.
Theo John - MARQ ($5,200 DK Only) - John is one of the many Marquette players being overshadowed nationally by Markus Howard’s breakout this season. Due to Howard’s near-monopoly on shot volume, John isn’t asked to do a ton on the offensive end but he’s been outstanding as a rim-protector and rebounder for the Golden Eagles lately. The 6’9” sophomore is averaging close to four blocks and eight rebounds per game over the last five and is beginning to see 30 minutes as a regular starter. John does have a tendency to get into foul trouble - four fouls in each of the last three outings - but the value he brings when he is on the floor is something Marquette has needed to offset Howard’s brilliance offensively. John has also scored in double-digits in three of the last four games as he’s been getting easy put-backs on Howard misses. If Naji Marshall (shoulder) is unable to go for Xavier, John gets an even bigger boost with more chances at rebounds and blocks.
Nate Reuvers - WISC ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD) - As Wisconsin’s second-best big, Neuvers has really benefited lately from opposing defenses keying on stopping Ethan Happ. With Happ seeing regular double teams and getting into foul trouble, Reuvers has 4x-ed his current DK price tag in five of the last games and has 6x-ed it in two of the last three. The 6’11” sophomore has shown flashes he can be the guy to take over down low when Happ leaves this summer for the NBA Draft - and Wisconsin seems content to extend his usage and shots share as we get deeper into conference play and March quickly approaches. Northwestern has a couple talented forwards who should cause problems for Happ today, opening the door yet again for Reuvers to smash value - especially at his DK price.
Terrell Brown - PITT ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) - Outside of a dud game vs. Syracuse last week, Brown has been surprisingly consistent as a safe cash game play. The biggest reason for that is his unique ability to block shots at an elite level. Brown’s 13.1% block rate is the 8th-best in the country - and he gets a matchup vs. a Louisville offense that’s in the bottom third in terms of getting their shots blocked. Put two-and-two together and we should see another multi-block game from Brown, who went through a five-game stretch earlier this month where he blocked at least four shots every game. The shot-blocking combined with decent rebounding gives him a reasonable floor of 25 DK points and the chance to 5x his salary today.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Cameron McGriff - OKST ($8,300 DK / $7,900 FD)
Elijah Thomas - CLEM ($7,400 DK / $7,200 FD)
Jalen Smith - UMD ($6,400 DK / $6,600 FD)
Flo Thamba - BAY ($3,100 DK / $4,200 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: C.J. Bryce, NCST - $6,500
G: Jared Butler, BAY - $5,000
G: Christen Cunningham, LOU - $5,700
F: Bruno Fernando, UMD - $8,900
F: Theo John, MARQ - $5,200
F: Donta Hall, BAMA - $7,200
U: Tre Jones, DUKE - $6,300
U: Nate Reuvers, WISC - $5,200
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: C.J. Bryce, NCST - $6,700
G: Jared Butler, BAY - $5,100
G: Anthony Cowan, UMD - $7,600
G: Lindell Wigginton, ISU - $6,000
F: Terrell Brown, PITT - $6,000
F: Nate Reuvers, WISC - $6,200
F: Donta Hall, BAMA - $7,900
U: Khwan Fore, LOU - $4,500