After a brief hiatus, we’re back on the DFS College Basketball train here at Fantasy Alarm! College Basketball is slowly coming into the forefront of the DFS and sports landscape with March Madness on the horizon, college football in the books and the NFL season all-but wrapped up. To cash big in March with the bigger contests, NOW is the time to get familiar with the teams and players we’ll see in a couple months.
Tonight’s slate is smaller than usual - just three games deep on DraftKings and two-fold on FanDuel - but the tight conference battles are still chalk-full of fantasy value. Both slates tip at 6:30 pm ET.
Obviously with nearly 30 less expected points in the Michigan-Indiana game than in Butler-Creighton, optimal lineups will likely be heavy on the latter matchup. With such a small slate of games tonight, though, you can’t completely fade a team or player with value to be had everywhere.
Per our normal routine, we’ll point out the guards and forwards to target in your DFS lineups tonight based on recent game trends, KenPom’s advanced metrics, opponent matchups and expected playing time.
Games On Tonight’s Slate:
Michigan @ Indiana - 6:30 pm ET (MICH -3 / 129 Implied Total)
Buffalo @ Kent State - 6:30 pm ET (BUF -9 / 159 Implied Total) - DK Only
Butler @ Creighton - 8:30 pm ET (CRE -2 / 156 Implied Total)
Guards
Kamar Baldwin - BUT ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD) - On such a small DFS CBB slate, it could be as simple as rostering the best player in the highest scoring game. But Baldwin has been phenomenal offensively for Butler lately. Since entering Big East play, the junior has yet to play less than 36 minutes in any game and has three outings of 40+ DK points - including a 50-burger against this same Creighton team earlier this month. In that game, Baldwin had 28 points, seven assists and five rebounds and went 11-for-18 from the field (61%). Expect the ball to be in Baldwin’s hands a ton in this pace-up matchup with tons of scoring on both sides. 8
Jeremy Harris - BUF ($8,200 DK Only) - If you’re playing on DraftKings tonight, you’ll want some exposure to Buffalo’s high-octane offense. The Bulls play at the 11th-fastest tempo with the 25th-most efficient offense in the country. The attack runs predominately through Harris and CJ Massinburg ($8,800) - both are in play tonight but let’s target Harris for the salary savings with a similar floor and ceiling. Over the last eight games, Harris has five outings of 34 DK points - highlighted by a monster 60.25 point performance earlier this month. He contributes in every stat category with the potential to hit it big if he’s hitting from deep. Kent State does not have a great defense so we should see plenty of shots from Harris, who’s launched double-digit shot attempts in all but one conference game this year.
Marcus Zegarowski - CRE ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) - Zegarowski has moved into the starting rotation the last three games with Damien Jefferson out - and is a cash game target on tonight’s short slate. He has a consistent range of 20 fantasy points nightly, but we saw a new ceiling from the freshman point guard with the added playing time lately. In his first two starts last week, Zegarowski put up 32.75 and 30.25 DK points vs. Villanova and St. John’s, respectively. He saw 36+ minutes and double-digit shot attempts in both outings and was a smash play at his relatively cheap price tag. Any time the Bluejays are in action, you should be rostering 2-3 starters because of how good their offense is (8th-most efficient and 92nd-fastest pace in the nation) AND how tight their rotation is (every starter, which includes Zegarowski, logs 30-35 minutes per game).
Rob Phinisee - IND ($4,700 DK / $4,800 FD) - With point guard Devonte Green suspended from the team, it’s Phinisee who is the biggest beneficiary in playing time and DFS production. Phinisee has re-entered the starting rotation the last two games for Indiana after being the Hoosiers’ starting PG for much of the season before a concussion sidelined him for three games earlier this month. Last game vs. Northwestern - the first with Green out of the picture - Phinisee saw 32 minutes, shot it 12 times (seven from deep) and returned 19.5 DK points. He only got a $1,000 price raise and should see similar usage and minutes tonight. Despite facing Michigan’s vaunted defense, Phinisee is still one of the best value plays on tonight’s shortened slate.
Other Guards to Consider:
Ty-Shon Alexander - CRE ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD)
Zavier Simpson - MICH ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD)
Davion Mintz - CRE ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)
Aljami Durham - IND ($4,300 DK / $5,100 FD)
Forwards
Juwan Morgan - IND ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD) - Usually we like to fade the most expensive options and find value lower in the player pool, but Morgan is still worthy of consideration tonight despite being the cash king at forward with a tough matchup vs. Michigan. The smaller slates (especially tonight’s 2- and 3-gamers) simply raise the value of the high-priced players to a point where it’s nearly impossible to fade them - especially in cash games. If they have a monster performance, then you’re safe and avoid missing out on the big production. If they bust, it likely doesn’t matter because the majority of the field is probably rostering them as well and will be in the same boat as you. This sounds like a bad place to be stuck in, but Morgan’s floor is high enough in Big Ten play where you don’t have to worry about the high price tag. Morgan has been almost matchup-proof over the last six conference games, averaging nearly 40 DK points with 17 points and 8.5 boards per game. Plug in Morgan and don’t think twice.
Nick Perkins - BUF ($7,200 DK Only) - Perkins plays a very interesting role for Buffalo. The senior doesn’t start, but he has the highest usage and shots share on the team in the 25-30 minutes he plays off the bench. He’s scored in double figures in all but one of the last ten games and claims a safe floor of 20 DK points. With such a weak forward player pool on this smaller slate, you’ll want to target Perkins if you’re playing on DK. He’s the best big in this game vs. Kent State and has potential for a double-double in his super-reserve role.
Jordan Tucker - BUT ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD) - We’ve been suggesting Tucker a ton this season - especially when he was about $1,500 cheaper - and he’s now priced right on the edge of still being affordable. The Duke transfer still doesn’t start, but he’s getting 25-30 minutes as Butler’s best bench player with the second-highest usage and shot volume on the team behind only Kamar Baldwin. Although Tucker failed to return much value vs. Villanova on Tuesday, he still had 11 shot attempts (nine from three-point range) - his third straight game with double-digit shots. In the two previous outings, he went 15-for-31 from the field (48%) and 11-for-19 from deep (58%) for 69 total DK points. On such a small slate tonight in a pace-up game vs. Creighton, Tucker should be in your short list for cash and GPP contests.
Isaiah Livers - MICH ($4,500 DK / $4,700 FD) - As Michigan’s first player off the bench, Livers is asked more to bring a defensive energy to the floor rather than an offensive burst. He’s yet to score in double figures in conference play, but still sees 20-25 minutes with enough production in rebounds/block/steals to return value on his cheap price tag. If you’re paying up for Morgan and/or trying to fit in some of the expensive guards tonight, Livers provides some nice salary relief at a forward position that’s a bit tough to navigate. He gives you guaranteed playing time with a defined role - Michigan will need him on the court plenty if they want to secure a road win over Indiana tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Jon Teske - MICH ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD)
Martin Krampelj - CRE ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD)
Sean McDermott - BUT ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Marcus Zegarowski, CRE - $5,400
G: Rob Phinisee, IND - $4,700
G: Jeremy Harris, BUF - $8,200
F: Juwan Morgan, IND - $9,000
F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $5,900
F: Nick Perkins, BUF - $7,200
U: Davion Mintz, CRE - $5,100
U: Isaiah Livers, MICH - $4,500
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Kamar Baldwin, BUT - $8,300
G: Rob Phinisee, IND - $4,800
G: Mitch Ballock, CRE - $6,500
G: Davion Mintz, CRE - $5,900
F: Juwan Morgan, IND - $8,200
F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $6,300
F: Isaiah Livers, MICH - $4,700
U: Aljami Durham, IND - $5,100