Now that college football is in the books, Fantasy Alarm is helping you WIN at DFS College Hoops!

Tonight, we’ve got another huge slate of conference matchups to dive into as we find the studs and value plays to build around. DraftKings and FanDuel both include 12 games on their slates with DK throwing in Toledo-Buffalo as an outlier game.

As always, with a particular focus on KenPom’s advanced metrics and overall recent game trends, we’ll point out the teams to target as a whole before breaking down the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS lineups today. The point spreads and over/under’s below are based on KenPom’s predictions for that matchup.

If you have any questions or comments on the day’s slate or anything college basketball-related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dan_servodidio or in the Fantasy Alarm CBB chat room.

 

Games To Target

  • St. John’s @ Villanova - 7 pm ET (NOVA -6 / 148 Implied Total)

  • North Carolina @ North Carolina State - 9 pm ET (UNC -1 / 173 Implied Total)

Games to Fade

  • Tennessee @ Missouri - 7 pm ET (TENN -6 / 138 Implied Total)

  • Texas @ Oklahoma State - 7 pm ET (TEX -3 / 133 Implied Total)

 

Guards

Phil Booth - NOVA ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD) - Since Villanova lost back-to-back games to Penn and Kansas in December, Booth has been on an offensive tear and is the main reason why the Wildcats have since won three straight after a shaky start to the season. Booth has put up at least 34 DK points in each of the last four games and nearly 5x-ed his price tag each time - making his salary a bargain considering this recent production. The senior will need to be at his best again tonight against a St. John’s team that plays at a top-50 pace and can score a ton. During ‘Nova’s three-game winning streak, Booth is averaging 18 points, six rebounds, six assists and a steal per game and has the floor to easily provide 30 fantasy points again tonight.

Mustapha Heron - STJN ($6,800 DK / $7,200 FD) - For much of this season, Heron has been the more affordable option on St. John’s for those who don’t want to pay up for Shamorie Ponds but still want exposure to this offense. The junior had a down game last time out vs. Georgetown, but he did put up 30+ DK points in three straight beforehand as he hit 61% of his 24 three-pointers. Heron is more a tournament play because his fantasy scoring is a bit dependant on his pure scoring and shot opportunity. Though he doesn’t offer much in ancillary categories, he can hit it big when he’s making those shots.

Tre Jones - DUKE ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) - If you’re not paying up for Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett tonight, Jones is always a great way to get exposure to the high-powered Duke offense at a cheaper price tag. The freshman Jones is the point guard and lead distributor for the Blue Devils and has really benefited from opposing defenses focused more on stopping Williamson/Barrett. Duke is projected to score 90 points and will likely blow out Wake Forest, but don’t fret about Jones still getting his stats before the game is in hand.  

Markell Johnson - NCST ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD) - Johnson has certainly been one of the more polarizing DFS plays this season. When NC State faces cupcake teams, Johnson is a bust and a lineup-killer. But when the Wolfpack play good teams, Johnson sees significantly larger minutes and shot attempts - especially from 3-point range. The junior has put up 32.5, 46, 27.75, 36.5 and 33.75 DK points against Miami, Auburn, Penn State, Vanderbilt and Wisconsin, respectively. Those are all fringe tournament teams or better and Johnson showed up when it mattered most. Expect that trend to continue in a top 25 matchup vs. UNC tonight.

Lindell Wigginton - ISU ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) - Wigginton’s talent and DFS potential are a lot better than his price tag suggests. The sophomore was a regular starter for Iowa State all last season and this year before a foot injury forced him to miss 10 games. He’s only played in three games since returning and should claim back that starting role (and 30+ minutes nightly) before long. When Wigginton is on the floor this season, his possession and shot usage both lead the team - making him a very good cash play while he’s still this cheap.

Dupree McBrayer - MINN ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) - Normally we like to fade teams facing Maryland’s tough defense, but this could be a nice bargain spot for McBrayer. The Terps tend to play worse on the road - KenPom actually predicts Minnesota to win its Big Ten home-opener - and McBrayer has been close to 5x or better in the last three games since returning from a one-game absence. Maryland’s D is a lot better inside with strong rim protection, but it’s usually opposing teams’ guards that can burn them. McBrayer and Amir Coffey ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) both set up nicely but you can save the money for similar production from McBrayer for cash games.

Ashton Hagans - UK ($4,400 DK / $5,700 FD) - When Kentucky is on the slate and Hagans remains this cheap, lock him into your lineups - especially on DK. Honestly, it’s really surprising his price hasn’t increased more despite rising usage and shot percentages and three straight games where he’s 6x-ed this price tag. He has locked up Kentucky’s starting point guard spot after beginning the season on the bench and you can expect 25-30 DK points today in UK’s conference home-opener.

Other Guards to Consider:

  • Jarrett Culver - TT ($8,400 DK / $8,000 FD)

  • Lamar Peters - MISS ST ($6,800 DK / $7,500 FD)

  • Matt McQuaid - MICH ST ($4,300 DK / $5,700 FD)

  • Braxton Beverly - NCST ($4,500 DK / $5,000)


 

Forwards

Zion Williamson - DUKE ($10,700 DK / $9,200 FD) & RJ Barrett - DUKE ($10,100 DK / $8,800 FD) - Any time Duke is on the slate, the tough decision looms of whether to pay up for Williamson or Barrett - or to fade both. On this slate, it’s probably more optimal to fade both if you’re playing cash games but perfectly fine to choose one for tournaments. Williamson is always the more popular of the two because of his national appeal (and higher DFS floor) - hence the larger price tag - but Barrett arguably has a higher ceiling if he’s hitting his shots and playing elite defense like he was in the beginning of the season. Take note that Barrett is just guard eligible on FanDuel.

Luke Maye - UNC ($8,100 DK / $7,900 FD) - You’ll notice there are a few really attractive cash game forwards if you’re fading Williamson/Barrett - and Maye tops that list with a very affordable salary. NC State plays a ton of guard-heavy lineups and does not boast elite defenders or rebounders down low to slow Maye. In such a fast-pace, high-scoring matchup tonight, Maye has real potential for a double-double as he should have his way in the paint.

Eric Paschall - NOVA ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD) - If you want to save even more at forward tonight, this is another great pivot off Williamson/Barrett. Villanova’s recent three-game winning streak has featured the dynamic senior duo of Phil Booth and Paschall running the pick-and-roll to perfection. Unlike most forwards, Paschall offers three-point upside as he’s hit 45% of his 20 shots from deep over the last three games. He will also benefit from facing one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (St. John’s) and has a great chance for a double-double tonight.

Jalen Smith - UMD ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) - Eventually Smith’s price tag will catch up to his production - but it hasn’t happened yet. Over the last four games, the freshman is averaging 16.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 30 DK points as his usage has started to rise with Maryland now in conference play. Smith largely has not lived up to his hype this season - being overshadowed by Bruno Fernando - but Maryland is starting to feature him more on the offensive end against better opponents. The Terps will surely need him tonight with Fernando having to deal with Jordan Murphy down low.

Jack White - DUKE ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) - White, like Tre Jones, offers a significantly cheaper avenue than Williamson & Barrett to get exposure to a Duke offense projected to score 90 tonight. The junior White is usually the first guy off the bench and plays 20-30 minutes in a very productive, complementary role to the freshmen standouts - his offensive rating is actually 3rd in country. White’s defensive play also raises his value to a safe cash game play with GPP upside - he has at least four blocks+steals in each of the last four games. Again if you’re not paying up for Williamson or Barrett, White is a great pivot if you still want shares of Duke.

Other Forwards to Consider:

  • Nick Perkins - BUF ($7,300 DK Only)

  • Xavier Tillman - MICH ST ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

  • Marvin Clark II - STJN ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

  • Keyshawn Bryant - SCAR ($4,400 DK / $4,800 FD)

  • Eric Curry - MINN ($3,800 DK / $4,000 FD)

 

Example Lineup on DraftKings:

G: Phil Booth, NOVA - $7,100

G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $4,400

G: Markell Johnson, NCST - $6,100

F: RJ Barrett, DUKE - $10,100

F: Eric Paschall, NOVA - $7,100

F: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $4,400

U: Tre Jones, DUKE - $6,500

U: Matt McQuaid, MICH ST - $4,300

 

Example Lineup on FanDuel:

G: Phil Booth, NOVA - $7,500

G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $5,700

G: Markell Johnson, NCST - $6,100

G: Lindell Wigginton, ISU - $6,500

F: Luke Maye, UNC - $7,900

F: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $4,800

F: Jack White, DUKE - $6,500

U: Braxton Beverly, NCST - $5,00